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2011-01-14 Africa North

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Posted by Fred 2011-01-14 15:38|| || Front Page|| [11133 views ] Top

#1 My bet is that an Islamist revolt is in the works. Look for a second Sudan-style leadership.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2011-01-14 16:01|| 2011-01-14 16:01|| Front Page Top

#2 If my prediction materializes, Islamists now have a new base from which to destabilize Libya and Algeria.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2011-01-14 16:04|| 2011-01-14 16:04|| Front Page Top

#3 Not to mention Italy and the Balkans.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2011-01-14 16:17|| 2011-01-14 16:17|| Front Page Top

#4 Will the next regime have a firm grasp on power or will there be a protracted civil war, which could draw in regional powers?
*flips Magic 8-Ball*

Posted by ryuge 2011-01-14 16:23|| 2011-01-14 16:23|| Front Page Top

#5 There's an article in the New York Times claiming that Tunisian youth are actually angry about the sudden prosperity of former president Ben Ali's second wife's upstart family (Mrs. Ben Ali was a hairdresser before she caught the eye of the big guy), when so many can't even find jobs. Sorry, I don't have the link.

Posted by trailing wife 2011-01-14 16:26|| 2011-01-14 16:26|| Front Page Top

#6 A hairdresser. Surely she has other talents. They shouldn't begrudge her

Posted by Frank G 2011-01-14 17:07|| 2011-01-14 17:07|| Front Page Top

#7 Islamists now have a new base from which to destabilize Libya and Algeria.

Mods: one of us has to ask Fred about whether either Libya or Algeria can be destabilized further than what they are now.

I suggest we send TW.

Posted by Steve White 2011-01-14 17:43|| 2011-01-14 17:43|| Front Page Top

#8 Mods: one of us has to ask Fred about whether either Libya or Algeria can be destabilized further than what they are now.

Dr. Steve, you are being very silly. Libya, at least, will be considerably less stable without that fashion plate of a colonel and his stable of girl guards, with their neckerchiefs and sashes of merit badges to match his.

Posted by trailing wife 2011-01-14 18:21|| 2011-01-14 18:21|| Front Page Top

#9 As stable as Paul Krugman at an Alaska tea party featuring a 21-gun salute to Sarah Palin?

Posted by ryuge 2011-01-14 18:59|| 2011-01-14 18:59|| Front Page Top

#10 Mods: one of us has to ask Fred about whether either Libya or Algeria can be destabilized further than what they are now.

I suggest we send TW.

Anyone who's kept track of the Middle East (and, indeed, much of the Third World) for any length of time knows that it can always get worse. Th real problem is that when it gets worse, taxpayers from developed countries get to foot the bill, whether it's in the form of aid or increased commodity prices (due to security expenses, or the outright stoppage of production as a result of complete chaos). Zimbabwe used to be an agri-export powerhouse. Its former export markets are now buying from somebody else. We are also sending huge amounts of aid into Zimbabwe ($500M from the West alone).

Posted by Zhang Fei 2011-01-14 19:03|| 2011-01-14 19:03|| Front Page Top

#11 As stable as Paul Krugman at an Alaska tea party featuring a 21-gun salute to Sarah Palin?

That's just plain mean, ryuge.

Zhang Fe, you're absolutely right. I don't understand Dr. Steve's comment, either.

Posted by trailing wife 2011-01-14 22:37|| 2011-01-14 22:37|| Front Page Top

#12 I was only being semi-silly.

Ryuge: snark of the week!

ZF and TW: Libya is an absolute shithole of a country. The only reason it isn't compared to Zimbabwe -- unfavorably -- is that Qadaffy has always been better with the press. The people are repressed and miserable, there's no wealth outside of what Qadaffy steals for himself and his evil son, and everything is broken. Read Michael Totten on how bad it is.

Algeria is in the middle of terrorism and near full scale civil war. It's another cesspit. I suppose it could get worse there -- they could have plague and locusts -- but only just.

So now Tunisia goes down, and a 'moderate' government falls -- moderate because they had a little wealth, no polygamy, and no terrorism. Trapped between two shithole countries, they don't have much of a chance.

Posted by Steve White 2011-01-14 23:18|| 2011-01-14 23:18|| Front Page Top

23:56 gorb
23:53 gorb
23:51 gorb
23:51 Hellfish
23:18 Steve White
23:13 trailing wife
23:12 rammer
23:08 trailing wife
23:01 rammer
23:00 Thing From Snowy Mountain
22:57 JosephMendiola
22:42 JosephMendiola
22:38 JosephMendiola
22:37 trailing wife
22:33 Frank G
22:30 Frank G
22:26 rammer
22:22 rjschwarz
22:22 Redneck Jim
22:21 rammer
22:20 rjschwarz
22:18 Zhang Fei
22:16 tipper
22:14 Redneck Jim