#4
Likely the older versions that are about to expire anyway. A good chunk of Javelins the Ukrainians got at the beginning were already expired but seemed to have worked pretty well. It amuses me that the old equipment and weapons we have cost less to ship to Ukraine than to destroy them ourselves, due to congressional overwatch and environmental regulations.
#6
I like how they keep 'finding' more inventory of multi-million dollar equipment and ammunition. Perhaps the GAO and/or DoD IG ought to be checking those seat cushions more thoroughly.
It's also been pointed out, by Trent Telenko at least, that a fair amount of equipment that has already been surplused out may still be sitting in yards/warehouses/garages in useable condition, and could be pulled back either by voluntary purchase or even eminent domain.
[France24] At the end of August, Ukraine declared it had finally managed to pierce Russia’s first line of defence after retaking the small village of Robotyne in Ukraine’s south. This key advance coincided with a Russian mercenary group’s threat to stop fighting on Russia’s behalf on the front lines of the village and could be a sign of more anti-Kremlin sentiment brewing among those fighting for Moscow.
"Robotyne has been liberated," Ukraine’s deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar announced on August 28.
Although the tiny village, which had a pre-war population of fewer than 500 people, may be of little importance in itself, it lies along a strategic road that leads to the Russian-occupied road and railway hub of Tokmak. From there, another road leads to the key city of Melitopol, which, prior to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, was known to Ukrainians as the "gateway" to the peninsula. Last week’s victory was therefore an important advance for Ukraine.
Just a few days earlier, however, fighters from Rusich, a small Russian neo-Nazi paramilitary group stationed at Robotyne’s front line, had threatened to lay down their arms — a move that may have contributed to Russia’s stinging loss there.
The official reason for the threat to lay down arms, Rusich explained in an August 25 statement on Telegram, was that one of the group’s top commanders and founding members, Yan Petrovsky, had been detained in Finland and faced extradition to Ukraine — and the Russian government was not doing much about it.
Petrovsky, a dual Russian-Norwegian national, co-founded Rusich back in 2014 to take part in the Russian occupation of Donbas and is believed to have been a contractor for the Wagner Group at one point. He faces various terrorism-related charges in Ukraine and risks being sentenced to between 15 and 20 years in prison if he is extradited.
In a series of messages screen-grabbed by the research project Antifascist Europe, Rusich members expressed frustration with their treatment by the Russian authorities.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[LB] Sumy, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya also suffered enemy attacks.
There were nine shellings (87 explosions) in the Chernihiv region during the day. The enemy shelled the Novgorod-Siverskyi and Koryukivskyi districts with mortars and artillery. The dropping of ammunition from the drone was also recorded. No information was received about losses among the local population or damage to civil infrastructure. The data is being verified, says the summary from OVA as of this morning.
In Sumy oblast, at night and in the morning, the Russians carried out three attacks on Sumy and Seredino-Budsk communities. 14 explosions were recorded. This morning, as a result of the attack on the city of Sumy, the residential sector of civilians suffered significant destruction. According to preliminary information, a two-story residential building was destroyed, more than 20 houses and eight vehicles were damaged, and a fire broke out on a large area. Two people were under the debris. Emergency workers rescued a man (born in 1953) and a woman (born in 1958) from under the rubble. The fire has been extinguished. Works are ongoing. Yesterday, during the day, the Russians carried out 18 shelling of the border. 133 explosions were recorded. The communities of Krasnopilsk, Myropilsk, Bilopolsk, Khotynsk, Velikopysarivsk, Putivlsk, and Shalyginsk were shelled. Krasnopil community: the administration building and the power transmission line, the power line, were damaged. a private house, a motorcycle, a garage, a kindergarten and a grocery store. Shalyginsk community: a household was damaged. Myropol community: the tower of the mobile operator was damaged.
In Dnipropetrovsk at night, the enemy targeted Pokrovska rural community. He was from heavy artillery. Damaged transport company. There are no dead or injured. Yesterday, the Nikopol district suffered from artillery shelling, the aggressor hit the district center three times during the day. And once again - in the Marganets community. A 52-year-old woman and a 57-year-old man received shrapnel wounds. They were given help and will be treated on an outpatient basis. A private house caught fire. In total, eight local homes, five farm buildings and a car were damaged, and two power lines were mutilated. In the evening, the Russian army shelled the Pokrovsky community of the Synelnyk district. A fire broke out. It was quickly extinguished.
Yesterday in Mykolaivska , the enemy attacked the waters of the Ochakiv community with anti-tank guided missiles. There were no casualties. Also yesterday evening enemy artillery shelling was recorded on the open territory of the settlements of the Kutsurub community. There were no casualties.
In Luhansk , the Rashists attacked several times in the direction of Novoyehorivka in vain. The enemy used aviation near Bilogorivka and west of Dibrova. Artillery - along Nevsky and Bilogorivka. During the day, the enemy fired 149 rounds (543 shells).
In Kharkivska last night the enemy shelled Kucherivka, a private house was damaged. The enemy also shelled Petropavlivka. A 68-year-old man was injured and hospitalized. In the Slobozhansk direction, the enemy launched an airstrike in the Granev region. Udy, Veterinarne, Vovchansk, Budarki, Gatishche, Ohirtseve were subjected to artillery and mortar shelling. In the Kupian direction, the defense forces repelled enemy attacks in the Sinkivka area. More than 15 settlements, including Krasne Pershe, Kamianka, Figolivka, Dvorichna, Kucherivka, and Tabaivka, were hit by artillery and mortar attacks. As a result of an enemy drone attack on a private house in Granev, a 77-year-old woman received a shrapnel wound and was hospitalized. A truck was detonated by an explosive device in the area of Mospanove settlement. The 25-year-old driver and the 20-year-old woman in the car were injured. Hospitalized in serious condition. Between Barvinkov and Chervony, while working in the field, a tractor hit an explosive device, and the 42-year-old tractor driver was injured. Hospitalized in a moderate condition. In a day in the region: five wounded.
In Zaporizhzhiain the morning, Russian military personnel carried out a rocket attack on Zaporizhzhia - a man was injured. Appropriate services are working at the site of the damage. Over the past day, 93 enemy attacks on 29 cities and villages were recorded. The occupier hit Shiroki and Trudovo with rockets, fired at Chervone with MLRS, carried out six UAV attacks on Komyshuvas, Novodarivka, Malynivka, Charivny and Kamiansky, and also targeted Orikhov and Robotyn with six aerial missiles. 78 artillery shells fell on the territory of Gulyaipol, Zaliznychny, Novoandriyivka, Levadny, Temyrivka, Biloghirya, Stepnohirsk, Pyatikhatok, Primorsky, Stepovoy, Plavni and other settlements on the line of fire. A 54-year-old woman died as a result of a rocket attack on Primorskyi. 40 reports were received about the destruction of residential buildings, farm buildings and infrastructure facilities.
In Donetsk , 11 settlements are under fire from the Rashists: Avdiivka, Kostyantynivka, Toretsk, Kurdyumivka, Shcherbynivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Novoselivka Persha, Novoukrainka, Solovyove, Shakhtarske. 18 private residential buildings, an administrative building, a power line, police station No. 1 of the Pokrovsky RUP were damaged. In Donetsk region in a day: six wounded.
At night in Odesa , the enemy attacked with groups of attack UAVs of the "Shahed-136/131" type from the south-eastern and southern directions (Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation, Cape Chauda - TOT, Crimea). A total of 20 "shaheed" launches in the direction of Odesa were recorded. 16 "Shahed-136/131" were destroyed within Odesa and Mykolaiv regions.
In the Kherson region, the enemy fired 62 shots (281 shells) during the day, including three artillery shells (seven shells) at Kherson. Rashists targeted the districts of 23 settlements of the region. Yesterday, the enemy attacked Odradokamyanka. Three local residents were injured. A 50-year-old man came under fire. Neighbors took him to the hospital in critical condition. Unfortunately, the man died from his injuries. Two men - 58 and 46 years old - received moderate injuries. Now they are in the hospital. In just one day, one person died and two were injured due to Russian aggression.
We will remind you that 39 military clashes took place yesterday. The enemy launched seven missile strikes, 74 air strikes, and fired 46 rocket salvo fire strikes at the positions of our troops and populated areas. The operational situation in the east and south of Ukraine remains difficult.
Worth noting, korrespondent.net has compiled its Invasion of Ukraine series into separate months, beginning May 9th, 2023. Linked in the title
[Korrespondent] 21:58 The “management” of the occupied Zaporozhye nuclear power plant decided to temporarily release some of the employees from work, said Renat Karchaa, adviser to the head of Rosenergoatom. According to him, this was done due to the allegedly “increased threat of provocations from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”
21:52 Russia is blocking the adoption of a joint declaration by the G20 summit participants, Reuters reports citing a European diplomat. According to him, Moscow announced that it would agree to a joint summit declaration only under certain conditions that relate to the Ukrainian issue. In turn, India, being the host country of the meeting, is looking for compromises. However, for now Russia is blocking “a compromise that would otherwise be acceptable to everyone,” the diplomat added.
21:29 British planes protect ships with Ukrainian grain from attack from the Russian Federation, The Telegraph writes, citing sources from Downing Street. According to the publication, the British use their intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance to monitor Russian activities in the Black Sea. As part of these operations, RAF aircraft fly over the area “to deter Russia from carrying out illegal attacks on civilian vessels,” the publication’s sources note.
20:54 The UN is not trying to achieve easing of sanctions against Russia, and proposals for the grain deal were drawn up taking into account existing restrictions, said Deputy Spokesperson of the Secretary General Farhan Haq.
20:40 Easing part of the sanctions regime against the Russian Federation in exchange for the renewal of the grain agreement will be “a victory for Russian food blackmail and an invitation from Moscow to new waves of blackmail,” Foreign Ministry Speaker Oleg Nikolenko said. According to him, the international community "should work to return Russia to fulfill its obligations, and not increase its sense of impunity and encourage new aggression by offering concessions."
20:33 IAEA experts at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant heard more than 20 explosions over the past week, which may indicate “increased military activity and a potential threat to the safety of the nuclear power plant,” said the agency’s general director Rafael Grossi.
20:27 Estonia plans to adopt a bill in the near future that will allow the confiscation of Russian assets - this will be the first such decision in the EU, said the country's Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna. According to him, work on the initiative was complicated by strict guarantees of private property in Estonia. The bill must first be approved by the Estonian government, then it will be submitted to parliament for consideration.
20:21 Zelensky, in an evening video message, complained about “too long a sanctions pause on the part of partners and Russia’s too active attempts to circumvent sanctions.” According to him, it is very important to prohibit Russia "from using the companies of the free world, the technologies of the free world, the products of the free world, to fight against freedom." On the issue of restrictions against the Russian Federation, the president named three priorities: further sanctions against the Russian energy sector, real restrictions on the supply of chips and microelectronics in general, and further blocking of the Russian financial sector.
Zelensky also said that today he held an important preparatory meeting for the international event, which is scheduled for September: “Details - a little later. We are preparing an important defense package for our soldiers.”
20:12 The Polish city of Wroclaw will help in the restoration of Mariupol after its liberation - the corresponding intention to conclude a Declaration of Solidarity was signed by mayors Vadim Boychenko and Jacek Sutryk.
19:44 In occupied Berdyansk, on the night of Friday, September 8, two explosions occurred on the territory of the municipal lyceum, where the occupiers located one of the “polling stations.” The pseudo-elections were supposed to begin on September 8, but this polling station never opened, the UP reports citing sources in the SBU. According to the publication, the Security Service of Ukraine is behind the explosions.
19:39 Zaluzhny said that he had a telephone conversation with the Supreme Commander of NATO Armed Forces in Europe and the commander of the US Armed Forces in Europe, Christopher Cavoli, discussed the situation at the front and the needs of the Ukrainian army, and exchanged views on the enemy’s possible plans. According to Zaluzhny, Ukrainian troops continue to move forward despite fierce enemy resistance.
18:51 In Krivoy Rog, the number of victims has increased to 73, one person died , said the head of the OVA Sergei Lysak. Of the injured, 35 people are in hospital, three in serious condition. In the city, among other things, 62 apartment buildings and seven private buildings, and more than 50 cars were damaged.
18:46 The Russians fired artillery at the village of Severnoe in the city of Toretsk, Donetsk region. As a result of a shell hitting a private house, four people were injured, including two teenagers aged 14 and 15, the Office of the Prosecutor General reported.
18:40 Lithuania transferred 4.5 million units of ammunition to Ukraine, the country’s Ministry of Defense reported.
18:28 UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that he does not see the possibility of ending the war in Ukraine in the near future: “I don’t really hope that we will have a peaceful solution in the near future. I believe that both sides have decided to continue the conflict.”
18:09 In Bryansk, after a drone attack, a fire started again at the Silicon El microelectronics plant, local publics write. Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of three drones over the city. Governor Alexander Bogomaz said that the debris of one of the intercepted UAVs hit the “administrative building of an industrial facility”, a fire started, and there were no casualties. Another drone, according to him, was suppressed by electronic warfare forces over Bryansk, the railway station building was damaged by debris, passengers were evacuated.
17:00 UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres proposed a four-point agreement to Lavrov so that Russia would return to the grain agreement, writes Bild. According to the publication, we are talking about the lifting of EU sanctions against Rosselkhozbank, insuring Russian ships against attacks in the Black Sea, unfreezing the assets of Russian fertilizer companies, as well as access for Russian ships transporting food and fertilizers to EU ports.
Bild writes that the Russian leadership is now carefully studying the UN proposals and has not yet agreed, since the Kremlin considers them “too good to be true.”
16:43 According to updated information, as a result of the Russian strike on Krivoy Rog, one person was killed and 60 were injured , the State Emergency Service reports.
16:38 Denmark has sent the first ten Leopard 1A5 tanks to Ukraine, said Ground Forces Commander Arpe Nielsen. In total, Kyiv should receive more than 100 such vehicles from Denmark and Germany.
16:25 Russia has partially established its own production of attack drones and deployed an additional station for launchers in Crimea, said Natalya Gumenyuk, speaker of the Southern Defense Forces.
15:48 In Orekhovo, Zaporozhye region, the bodies of two people killed as a result of Russian shelling on September 7 were found under the rubble, the National Police reported. In addition, one person died as a result of a direct hit by an artillery shell on a private house in Primorsky, Vasilyevsky district.
15:33 About 200 Ukrainian military personnel will learn to operate and repair Abrams tanks for several more weeks, although the main course ended in August. The exercises continued at the request of the Ukrainian side - they will continue while 31 American tanks are re-equipped and prepared for shipment to Ukraine, Martin O'Donnell, spokesman for the US Army Command in Europe and Africa, told Voice of America.
14:45 The presidential representative in parliament, People's Deputy Fyodor Venislavsky, clarified that restrictions on traveling abroad will apply only to those women who will be mobilized, and not just registered for military service.
14:42 In August, all aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which was part of the Regional Group of Forces of the Republic of Belarus and Russia, was withdrawn from Belarus, reports the Belarusian Gayun monitoring group. Thus, 11 helicopters flew from the Machulishchi airfield to the Seshcha airfield in the Bryansk region, and nine Su-34 and Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces flew from the Baranovichi airfield. Most of these helicopters and planes have been in Belarus since the beginning of January 2023.
Analysts also report that in Belarus in July-August there was a significant decrease in the number of Russian military personnel, and this was not a rotation. Currently, there are about 2,100 Russian military personnel left in the Republic of Belarus.
14:16 In the Kherson region, three sappers from The HALO Trust, an organization engaged in humanitarian demining, were blown up by a Russian mine. One of the victims is in serious condition, said the head of the OVA, Alexander Prokudin.
13:38 Search and rescue operations have been completed in Krivoy Rog: one person died, 54 were injured. Among the injured are nine police officers, said Interior Minister Igor Klimenko.
13:34 Zelensky said at the Yalta European Strategy summit in Kiev that Prigozhin was killed by Putin - “at least we have such information.” At the same time, he emphasized that for Ukraine, the death of the head of the Wagner PMC means “one less terrorist,” while the morale of the Russians fell, “because they covered themselves with the Wagnerites, threw themselves forward - they lost this protection, for us this is definitely a plus.”
13:01 The Russians fired mortars at Vesyoly, Kherson region, one person was wounded, OVA reported.
12:43 In Krivoy Rog, as of 12:30, one person died and 52 were injured , rescue operations continue, the State Emergency Service reports.
12:38 In the Belarusian village of Tsel near Osipovichi, more than half of the Wagner PMC camp has already been dismantled, Belarusian Gayun reports. According to the group’s experts, if at the start of dismantling on July 28 the camp consisted of about 292 tents, then at the moment more than 160 units have already been dismantled, that is, 55%. Initially, it was assumed that there would be at least 8,000 mercenaries in Belarus, and the camp was built based on this figure. But as a result, fewer Wagnerites came than expected. In addition, some of them may be moved to barracks, so the extra tents are now being dismantled.
12:22 As a result of the attack on Krivoy Rog, 44 people were injured, one died , the Ministry of Internal Affairs reported. Work continues.
12:14 Ukraine has returned nine more children, said Ombudsman Dmitry Lubinets. According to official data from the Russian side, the occupiers illegally deported more than 744 thousand Ukrainian children. According to the Office of the President of Ukraine, at least 20 thousand cases of illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to the Russian Federation have been officially documented. In total, 386 Ukrainian children were returned.
12:03 The Russians dropped an aerial bomb on Otradokamenka, Kherson region - three people were killed, four were injured, the Ministry of Internal Affairs reported.
11:37 Chinese opera singer Wang-Fang and a group of Chinese bloggers arrived in Mariupol, said Oleg Nikolenko, speaker of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry. He stressed that this visit is illegal, as well as an example of “complete moral degradation”, since the singer performed the song Katyusha on the ruins of the drama theater, in which the Russian army killed more than 600 Ukrainian civilians.
“Ukraine respects the territorial integrity of China and expects from the Chinese side an explanation of the purpose of the stay of Chinese citizens in Mariupol, as well as the route of their entry into the temporarily occupied Ukrainian city. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry is initiating a ban on entry into Ukraine for all these Chinese “guest performers,” Nikolenko emphasized.
11:10 Sergei Lysak reported “about 40 victims” in Krivoy Rog.
10:53 As a result of the morning missile attack on Zaporozhye, two fires broke out - in an administrative two-story building and in a gas module nearby. One person was hurt. Thanks to the actions of rescuers, it was possible to prevent the explosion of methane tanks, the Ministry of Internal Affairs reported.
10:48 The number of victims as a result of the Russian strike on Krivoy Rog has increased to 32 , said the head of the Dnepropetrovsk OVA Sergei Lysak. Three administrative buildings and seven residential buildings, including one multi-story building, were damaged. The fire that started in the garage has been contained. The investigation of the area continues.
10:39 The number of victims as a result of the morning strike in Sumy has increased to three, the State Emergency Service reported.
10:36 As a result of the attack on Krivoy Rog, one of the police administrative buildings was destroyed, said the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Igor Klimenko. One policeman died, rescuers rescued three more from the rubble, they are in serious condition. Six employees received injuries of varying severity.
10:27 Ukrainian military intelligence, after the successful completion of the Sinitsa special operation, is in dialogue with several more Russian pilots, Budanov said. In his opinion, the act of the Russian pilot Kuzminov, who flew the Russian Aerospace Forces Mi-8 helicopter to Ukraine, can become an example for other Russian pilots, including those with whom the dialogue continues. The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate also said that after the Sinitsa special operation, the top military-political leadership of the Russian Federation was “upset.” In this regard, the FSB has significantly stepped up its work, “but this will not give them anything,” Budanov added.
10:20 The number of victims as a result of the Russian strike on Krivoy Rog has increased to 26, one person died , the Office of the Prosecutor General reported. Rescue and search operations continue, the exact number of victims is being established.
09:43 The Russians fired a missile at Krivoy Rog and hit the administrative building. According to preliminary data, one person was killed and nine were injured. A fire started on an area of 200 square meters, said the head of the Dnepropetrovsk Regional Fire Department, Sergei Lysak.
09:02 As a result of the morning strike in Sumy, two people were injured, the State Emergency Service reported.
08:54 At night, the Russians fired at the village. Petropavlovka, Kupyansky district, Kharkov region, one person was injured, said Oleg Sinegubov, head of the OVA. The village was also shelled. Kucherivka, Kupyansky district, a residential building was damaged. During the day, the enemy shelled populated areas of the Kharkov, Bogodukhovsky, Chuguevsky and Kupyansky districts. One person was injured as a result of a drone strike on a private house in the village. Granov, Kharkov district.
In addition, between the city of Barvenkovo and the village. Chervonoye, Izyum district, while working in a field, a tractor ran over a mine and the tractor driver was injured. And in the area with. Mospanovo, Chuguevsky district, a truck was blown up by an explosive device, two people were seriously injured.
08:43 In the morning, the Russians hit Sumy with a rocket - one private house was destroyed, six more were damaged, OVA reported. In addition, at night and in the morning the enemy shelled the Sumy and Seredino-Buda communities.
08:36 In Cuba, 17 people were arrested who were recruiting for the war against Ukraine, writes Reuters. The Cuban Interior Ministry said that, among others, the organizer of the criminal group was arrested. Those detained are accused of human trafficking, mercenary activities and hostile acts against a foreign state. They carry a penalty of imprisonment for up to 30 years.
08:19 The General Staff announced the estimated losses of the Russian Federation as of the morning of September 8:
personnel - about 267,540 (+640) people,
tanks - 4529 (+23),
armored combat vehicles - 8726 (+23),
artillery systems - 5753 (+31),
MLRS - 754 (+1),
air defense systems - 507 (+1),
aircraft - 315 (+0),
helicopters - 316 (+0),
UAV of operational-tactical level - 4570 (+29),
cruise missiles - 1455 (+0),
ships/boats - 19 (+0),
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 8264 (+47),
special equipment - 860 (+1).
07:56 Over the past 24 hours, 39 military clashes took place at the front, the General Staff reported in its morning report. In the Kupyansk direction, the Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the Sinkovka area of the Kharkov region; on Limansky - in the Novoyegorovka area of the Lugansk region; on Bakhmutsky - in the Orekhovo-Vasilievka, Kleshcheevka and Andreevka districts of the Donetsk region; on Avdeevsky - in the Keramika and Avdeevka districts of the Donetsk region; on Maryinsky - in the Marinka and Novomikhailovka districts of the Donetsk region; on Shakhtarsky - in the area south of Prechistovka.
At the same time, the Defense Forces have partial success south of Bakhmut, as well as in the area south of Rabotino, Zaporozhye region.
07:45 At night, air defense destroyed 16 out of 20 Shahed-136/131 attack UAVs , the Air Force command reported. Russia attacked the Odessa region with groups of attack drones from the south-eastern and southern directions (Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation, Cape Chauda - Crimea). The drones were destroyed within the Odessa and Nikolaev regions.
07:24 In the morning, the enemy fired several missiles (preliminarily ballistic) at civilian infrastructure facilities in Zaporozhye. There is information about at least one casualty, said the head of the OVA, Yuri Malashko.
00:11 The US State Department threatened sanctions and visa restrictions to those who support the “elections” in the annexed Ukrainian territories, including “international observers.”
Text taken from Russian ministry of defense website (available only through a VPN)
[EngMilU] Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (7 September 2023)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian grouping of troops, aviation and artillery, have repelled fourteen AFU attacks close to Verbovoye and Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy losses were up to 110 Ukrainian servicemen, two tanks, four infantry fighting vehicles, two armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, one M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, and one U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, UK-manufactured FH-70, 152mm Msta-B and 122mm D-30 howitzers, as well as the Bukovel-AD electronic warfare station for detecting UAVs and blocking their control and navigation channels.
In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces, in cooperation with aviation and artillery, have successfully repelled nine attacks by AFU assault groups close to Kleshcheevka, Andreevka and Khimki (Donetsk People's Republic).
The enemy losses were over 320 Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, 12 motor vehicles, Polish-manufactured Krab and Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, two 122mm D-30 howitzers, and one 152mm D-20 gun.
In Kupyansk direction, as a result of active actions by units of the Zapad Group of Forces, in cooperation with aviation and artillery, four attacks by the 95th Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU have been repelled. In addition, the Group's troops have inflicted a fire defeat on the enemy near Kislovka (Kharkov region).
The enemy losses were up to 55 Ukrainian servicemen, two motor vehicles, three U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery systems, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
In Krasny Liman direction, as a result of coordinated actions of units of the Tsentr Group of Forces, Army Aviation and artillery, an attack by assault groups of the 67nd Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been repelled close to Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 60 Ukrainian personnel, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three pickup trucks.
In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces, in co-operation with Army Aviation and artillery, have inflicted a fire defeat on AFU units near Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
In addition, an enemy attack has been repelled near Novomayorskoye (Donetsk People's Republic), as well as the actions of two AFU sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been suppressed.
The enemy losses were up to 180 Ukrainian servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, five motor vehicles, one Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled artillery system, two 122mm D-30 howitzers, and one 152mm Giatsint-B gun.
In Kherson direction, the enemy losses were up to 25 Ukrainian servicemen, two motor vehicles, and two U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery systems.
In addition, three Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups from the 126th Territorial Defence Brigade have been destroyed on the Pereyaslavsky Island.
Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised manpower and military hardware in 117 areas.
One S-300ps SAM system has been destroyed near Lyubimovka (Zaporozhye region).
Field ammunition depots of 3rd Assault and 79th Airborne Assault Brigades of the AFU have been destroyed close to Krasnoye and Novomikhailovka (Donetsk People's Republic).
Air defence facilities have intercepted eleven HIMARS multiple-launch rocket systems, as well as one JDAM guided aerial bomb.
In addition, 41 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been destroyed close to Belogorovka, Melovatka (Lugansk People's Republic), Spornoye, Vodyanoye (Donetsk People's Republic), Mirnoye (Zaporozhye region), and Golaya Pristan (Kherson region).
In total, 467 airplanes, 248 helicopters, 6,467 unmanned aerial vehicles, 436 air defence missile systems, 11,711 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,148 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 6,274 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 12,776 special military motor vehicles have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[NewsFront] 23:55 Official summary of the DPR Representative Office in the JCCC from 00:00 09/08/2023 to 00:00 09/09/2023
Over the past 24 hours Representative officereportedabout 39 facts of firing from the AFU.
Over the past 24 hours, information has been received about the death of a civilian, a woman, in the Kirovsky district of Donetsk.
Seven civilians were injured of varying degrees of severity in the Petrovsky, Kuibyshevsky districts of Donetsk, and Aleksandrovka.
A total of 11 houses were damaged in the Kiev and Kuibyshev districts of Donetsk. Three civil infrastructure facilities were damaged in the Kuybyshevsky district of Donetsk.
Districts of four settlements of the Republic were under enemy fire: Gorlovka (Tsentralno-Gorodskoy, Kalininsky, Nikitovsky districts), Yasinovatsky district, the capital city of Donetsk (Kuibyshevsky, Kirovsky, Kievsky, Petrovsky districts), Makeevka (Chervonogvardeysky district).
In the Donetsk direction, the enemy carried out 27 attacks from MLRS and 155mm artillery, incl. with a cassette warhead.
At Gorlivske there were 11 artillery attacks from 152mm and 122mm artillery.
On Yasinovatsky there was one artillery attack from 155mm artillery. Having released 141 units of various ammunition.
A previous 92 artillery attacks were recorded from the VFU per day.
21:50 LBS situation from FRONTLINE:
Avdievka. Ukrainians were able to advance in the direction of the village of Opytnoye. There are heavy battles going on. Ours are trying to push them back.
The advance of our guys north of Priyutnoye was recorded at a distance of up to 1.5 km into the depth of the enemy’s defense and up to 500 meters west of Priyutnoye.
Mar'inka. In the northwestern parts there is our advance.
21:20 Central Military District engineers continue to provide assistance to local residents in demining their plots from explosive objects
Engineering and sapper units of the Central Military District, during combat missions, carry out demining of areas and sections of roads from explosive objects and unexploded ordnance, and also provide assistance to local residents of liberated settlements in demining their household plots from dangerous finds.
Thus, while military personnel were performing special tasks to clear the area, specialists were contacted by a local resident who discovered an unexploded part of a Western-made cluster munition on his site.
Due to the danger of detonation, sappers destroyed the ammunition on site using the overhead charge method.
20:45 Russian Army on Rabotinsky direction this evening for the first time used cluster munitions against positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the north of the village.
Hitting with “cassettes” is a game that can be played by two people - proven by the Russian Army. Are you sure it’s worth “getting” depleted uranium?
19:45 Report on anti-aircraft installations on Motolygi of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade -video.
19:00 Orekhovsky section: attempts to enter Rabotino and butting heads at Verbovoysettingas of 18.00 September 7, 2023
In the morning, Ukrainian formations again tried to advance in the Rabotino area with the support of armored vehicles. Russian troops repelled the attack, and according to Archangel Spetsnaz, the enemy lost one tank.
Rabotino itself remains in a no-man's-land: the enemy is not trying to gain a foothold there with large forces due to the fact that the settlement has been virtually demolished. Small groups of manpower entering there immediately come under artillery fire from the Russian Armed Forces.
In the area of Verbovoye, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are much more active and are trying to penetrate the defense in order to reach the village itself. Twice enemy infantry tried to approach Russian positions, but retreated under artillery attacks. The Russian Armed Forces are also supported by the Aerospace Forces aviation.
Also on the front line were units of the 80th Airborne Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, units of which arrived in the Zaporozhye direction back in mid-August. Apparently, they, together with the 71st Jaeger Brigade, will provide support to the 82nd Airborne Brigade, which in just a few weeks suffered significant losses in the battles near Verbov.
18:05 MO RF: around 17.30 crossed an attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out a terrorist attack by an aircraft-type UAV on targets on the territory of the Russian Federation.
Air defense systems on duty over Bryansk intercepted three unmanned aerial vehicles, two of which were destroyed in the air.
17:30 Enemy comes at the junction of Zaporozhye and the DPR: the Ukrainian Armed Forces have the task of capturing Novodonetskoye and Novomayorskoye at any cost
Since the beginning of the week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have chosen a new direction for the offensive and are sending troops every day to storm our strongholds near settlements in the South Donetsk direction at the junction of Zaporozhye and the DPR, in the area of ??the former Vremevsky salient.
With the support of artillery and armored vehicles, assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces seek to enter from the flanks, attacking Novodonetskoye and Novomayorskoye.
According to the latest data, the enemy managed to enter the northern outskirts of Novomayorsky. Soldiers of the DPR, OBTF “Cascade” and Far Eastern Marines repulse attacks and strive to knock out the enemy.
Soldiers of the Vostok battalion report on the situation on this sector of the front:
“The situation at Novomayorsky is difficult; the enemy has set himself the task of giving results, regardless of losses. The intensity of passions is high.”
“Everyone is stubborn, individual positions have already changed their “owners” several times, the fight is going on mainly for a group of fortifications on the approaches to populated areas. The enemy works in small groups, avoiding clusters, periodically drives tanks out for direct fire, but does not detain them in one place for a long time - he pulls them back.”
16:55 Special forces attacked blow at the base of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Orekhovsky direction of the Zaporozhye Front:
The enemy continues to attempt to attack in the direction of Rabotino and Verbovoy, our troops are repelling attacks and striking at the enemy’s rear.
The footage shows objective control from the army special forces "Osman" to destroy the enemy's temporary deployment point with military equipment (weapons, military and special equipment) in the Orekhovsky direction.
16:30 APU transfer in the Khar'kov region, reserve units, including Western mercenaries, are expelling local residents from their homes - the head of the Russian administration of the region, Vitaly Ganchev.
16:05 Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: On September 8, at about 15.00, an attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out a terrorist attack by an aircraft-type UAV on objects on the territory of the Russian Federation was stopped.
Duty air defense systems destroyed an unmanned aerial vehicle over the territory of the Belgorod region.
15:20 In Mar'inka goes advance of our troops. The Ukrainian Armed Forces militants stay only on the outskirts.
14:20 Objectives amazed:
Su-25 attack aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed camouflaged fortified field positions and armored vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
13:20 Sapper robots lead mine clearance Donbass:
The liberated territories are in dire need of demining.
The Russian military is using high-tech Uran-6 robots for this task. /iz.ru/
12:50 Volunteers from the “Bars-10” detachment were able to fire from MANPADS shoot down Czech drone Primoco One
This is the first Czech-made device used in a combat zone. The cost of one copy is estimated at 550,000 euros.
And although the reconnaissance drone fell into territory under fire from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, our soldiers managed to remove its remains and send them to the rear for study.
12:20 According to operational lines the JCCC of the DPR on September 8, as of 12:00, received information about casualties among civilians in the cities of the Republic:
Donetsk (Petrovsky district):
- on the street Petrovsky, 255, a man born in 1948 was wounded.
11:40 Battles near Orekhov: Russian Aerospace Forces cover the enemy with air bombs –video.
11:20 Krivoy Rog. Analysis of strike results from our comrades:
09-00 09/08/2023
A UAV hits an enemy military prosecutor's office (commandant's office).
At the time of the meeting. Lots of ambulances.
10:40 Footage of the evacuation of 300 representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from near Rabotino, Zaporozhye region.
The soldiers are being transported -failed with an attack...
10:20 Competent work, coherence crew: combat work of the crews of T-80BV tanks of the Western Military District in the Kupyansk direction:
Tankers of the Western Military District in the special operation zone provide fire support to motorized rifle units, ensuring the advance of Russian troops. The fire is controlled using unmanned aerial vehicles. Tankers widely practice shooting from closed firing positions.
“The advantage of the tactic is that the tank can operate like artillery, that is, from a closed position over long distances. In our case, this is a range from seven to nine kms. Another advantage is that it is indirect fire. We work according to coordinates... There is a result,” says the commander of the T-80BV tank with the call sign “Kozak”.
The main thing is good camouflage and crew coordination, the commander is sure.
“Upon arrival, we try to camouflage the tank properly. So that drones from above do not notice us. Everything is as it should be. The main thing is camouflage, competent work, crew coordination. And everything is fine. The guys are friendly, well done. We all understand each other. Everything is as one. The technology doesn’t fail, everything is fine!” – “Kozak” shared.
10:00 Circumstance on the fronts over the past 24 hours:
Zaporozhye direction
The Ukrainian Armed Forces, after a long lull, launched an attack on our positions in the Kamensky area.
Meanwhile, Russian fighters counterattacked at Rabotino and held back the onslaught of the Ukrainians at Verbovoy.
In the area of the Vremyevsky salient, our positions near Novodonetsk and Novomayorsky are under attack.
Svatovo-Kremennoe direction
In the Kupyansky sector, ours continue to expand the zone of control at Sinkovka and Petropavlovka.
On the Karamzinovsky ledge, Russian soldiers attacked at Novoegorovka. In Serebryansky Forest, our fighters regained some positions in the Shipilovka area.
Artyomovskoe direction
North of Artyomovsk, our fighters attacked in the Zaliznyansky area.
At the same time, ours successfully counterattacked at Kleshcheevka and Kurdyumovka.
09:16 Official summary representative offices of the DPR in the JCCC from 00:00 09/07/2023 to 00:00 09/08/2023
Over the past day, the Representation reported 92 facts of firing by the AFU.
Over the past day, information was received about the wounding of three civilians, incl. two teenage boys born in 2007 in the Kalininsky district of Gorlovka.
A total of 16 houses were damaged in Kuibyshevsky, Petrovsky, Kievsky districts of Donetsk, Kalininsky district of Gorlovka.
Three civilian infrastructure facilities were damaged in the Kievsky, Kuibyshevsky districts of Donetsk, and the Central City district of Gorlovka.
Under enemy fire were areas of five settlements of the Republic: Gorlovka (Central City, Kalininsky, Nikitovsky districts), Zaitsevo, Yasinovatsky district, the capital city of Donetsk (Kuibyshevsky, Kirovsky, Kievsky, Petrovsky districts), Makeevka (Kirovsky, Chervonogvardeysky districts).
In the Donetsk direction, the enemy made 71 artillery attack from MLRS, 155mm artillery, incl. with a cluster warhead.
On Gorlovsky 17 artillery attacks from artillery 152 and 155mm, incl. with a cluster warhead.
On Yasinovatsky 4 artillery attacks from 155mm artillery, incl. with a cluster warhead.
Having fired 313 units of various ammunition.
In the previous day, 83 artillery attacks were recorded from the side of the VFU.
09:15 The criminal Kiev regime continues to fire at the civilian infrastructure of settlements on the left bank of the Kherson region, yesterday during the day the Ukrainian Armed Forces fired from cannon artillery:
-- n.p. Korsunka 14 rounds;
-- n.p. Krynki nine rounds;
-- n.p. Saga nine rounds;
-- n.p. Peschanivka nine rounds;
-- n.p. Alyosha nine rounds;
-- n.p. Golaya Pristan 12 rounds;
-- n.p. Staraya Zburevka seven rounds;
-- n.p. Podstepnoe seven rounds;
-- n.p. Kazachi Lagery nine rounds;
During the night, the Kiev regime continued to shell civilian infrastructure in the settlement of Novaya Kakhovka, settlement. Kakhovka, Dnepryany, Krynki, Kazachi Lagery, Podstepnoye, n.p. Peschanivka firing a total of 39 rounds from cannon artillery.
Civilian casualties and destruction of infrastructure are being clarified.
08:17 Frontline summary on the morning of 09/08/2023
In the Zaporozhye direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, with artillery support, attacked Novoprokopovka from the east and Verbovoye from the north-west. No success. The Russian Armed Forces shelled Ukrainian positions in the settlements of Rabotino, Malaya Tokmachka, Charovnoye, Gulyaipolskoye, Gulyaipolye, Krasnoye and Ol'govskoye. They themselves found themselves under attack in Kopany, Il'chenkovo and Novopokrovka.
On the Donetsk front, Russian troops carried out assault operations in Mar'inka and on the southern approaches to Avdievka. No promotion. Long-range weapons operated across the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Paraskovyevka (not to be confused with the settlement of the same name southwest of Soledar), Ekaterinivka, Elizavetovka, the city of Krasnogorovka, Nevel'skoye, Pervomaiskoye, Karlovka, Stepnoy (not to be confused with the settlements of the same name in the Zaporozhye and Ugledarsk directions) , Keramika, Alexandropol and Severny (a settlement northwest of Gorlovka). Ukrainian artillery was working in Donetsk.
In the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to advance slightly north of Andreevka and in Kleshcheevka. Most of the last named settlements are under their control. Russian troops, supported by artillery, counterattacked in the Orekhovo-Vasil'ievka area. The Russian Armed Forces attacked Ukrainian positions in Belaya Gora, Ivanovsky, Khromovsky, Bogdanovka, Razdolovka, Vesyol (a settlement northwest of Soledar), Sporny and Verkhnekamensky. The Ukrainian Armed Forces fired at Russian troops in Ozaryanovka, Kurdyumovka and Bakhmut.
In the Lugansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces managed to advance near Novoegorovka, knocking out Ukrainian troops from a key height near this settlement. However, without establishing your control over it. The positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Belogorovka, Torskoye, Yampolevka, Nevsky, Druzhelyubovka, Berestovoy, Krakhmalny, Kotlyarovka, Kislovka, Kupyansk and Sin'kovka are under attack.
08:04 Summary on the morning of September 8, 2023
At night, the Russian Armed Forces attacked enemy targets in the Zaporozhye and Odessa regions, in the cities of Kherson and Sumy.On the Zaporozhye front, battles for the settlement continue. Rabotino. They report successful counter-offensive actions of the Russian Armed Forces in the south of the settlement, in which the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to gain a foothold under heavy fire from Russian artillery, MLRS and FAB strikes. The enemy never made it into Verbovoe.
At the junction of the Zaporozhye and Yuzhnodonetsk fronts, the enemy is trying to break through the defenses of Novodonetsk and Novomayorsky. The Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to cross the Shaitanka River, but were driven back by fire; enemy losses amounted to up to 180 personnel, two armored fighting vehicles, five vehicles, a Krab self-propelled gun, two 122mm D-30 howitzers and a 152mm Giatsint-B gun.
In the Kherson direction, fighting continues on the islands. On one of them, opposite Novaya Kakhovka, an enemy landing was stopped by our artillery fire.
North of Marinka, the Russian Armed Forces occupied a fortified area east of Krasnogorovka, for which there were battles back in 2014. In Marinka itself, the zone of control of our troops has been expanded.
In the Kupyansk direction there are reports of battles near Sinkovka. The Russian Armed Forces are striking enemy rear areas in the Kupyansk area.
In the Bryansk region, enemy UAVs have been shot down for days, one of them managed to set fire to an industrial facility. The village was fired from artillery. Sluchevsk and Demyanki. The enemy is artillery attack the border villages of the Belgorod region with cannon artillery. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched artillery strikes on Uspenovka and Gordeevka. In the DPR, three civilians were wounded by enemy fire.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Aleksandr Dimitrovsky
[REGNUM] In the household of the battalion commander of the armored group of the Donetsk international brigade “Pyatnashka” (now the 2nd detachment of the special forces regiment of the DPR Ministry of Defense) there is almost no equipment donated or transferred from somewhere - almost all of it is captured. Stolen from the battlefield under the enemy's nose, repaired and put into service.
“This is the Flea, the last thing we squeezed out, ” Maxim Surovikin introduces us to a short infantry fighting vehicle in the remnants of Ukrainian camouflage. “ We have it for agricultural work, in addition to combat missions, there is a pneumatic, it sits down and rises, you can screw a barrel to it, and it brings us water. “Zets” were only installed so that our own people wouldn’t hit us, and the number was changed.”
Nearby there is also a former Ukrainian BMP-1, nicknamed “Kat”, named by the soldiers for some unknown reason in honor of the radio operator from “17 Moments of Spring”, opposite it is “Ukropka”. There are also T-72 and T-80 tanks - all Soviet-made goods. This is the specificity of the Avdeevsky direction, where the brigade is fighting: the enemy knows what will happen and saves.
“They use minimal equipment; we burn it right away. Or we squeeze it out. You won’t see here either “Leopards” or “Strykers” - nothing that is in the Zaporozhye direction. They know that we have already sharpened our teeth on “Leopards” for a long time, I even asked the commander to let me go to Bakhmut or Zaporozhye, to which they told me: “There’s nothing for you to do there.” I’m very upset, we’re sitting and waiting,” Surovikin says with feigned sadness. In fact, he already has enough work. The main task of the armored group is to support infantry during assaults and “roll-ups”. Plus work on targets identified by intelligence.
And when there is no such work, there is combat training and endless repairs. And we started talking at the Pyatnashki repair center. Maxim Aleksandrovich met us in work clothes and was no different from any mechanic, only then he changed into overalls with medals. A “creative atmosphere” reigned in the hangar - disassembled turrets of armored vehicles, suspended engines, boxes with various ammunition, the smell of a mixture of sweat, fuel oil, diesel, smoke, seasoned with a strong word... There was a solid boom nearby: this air defense was covering an object that they were periodically trying to hit from that side.
Battalion commander Surovikin, sweating in a tight tank overall, casually fingered the awards on his chest. Here is the St. George Cross, the most important one. This is for the defense of Shakhtersk, then for the battles at Saur-Mogila. The second row is already late, from the Ministry of Defense. And those are the most valuable, pride and memory of what happened at the very beginning. Then Maxim came to the war straight from the Odessa Anti-Maidan. In 2014, he was a member of the Odessa people's squad of the anti-Maidan movement. Their camp was located right next to the House of Trade Unions, which was simply a miracle to pass through.
With broken ribs, Surovikin escaped through the back door, which was immediately blocked. Those who remained in the building burned to death. And he went to rebellious Donetsk, to the “Oplot” of Alexander Zakharchenko, where he was given a machine gun and sent to defend the airport. Maxim remembers his first fight well. But the first battle in a tank is difficult. Too much has happened since then. But now he has a specific attitude towards death: “It doesn’t hurt in a tank.”
“If they hit you, then they only collect gunpowder. This is a plus to some extent, we reassure ourselves with this. Psychologically, of course, it’s difficult, but the main thing is to overcome yourself and get through the first battle. Why do they say “for one beaten, they give two unbeaten”? Because you’re already fired up, motivated, that’s it. And so the return flies at us all the time, counter-battery fighting. Let’s go and look at the tank,” invites the battalion commander, who chose the call sign “Psycho.” And then he talks about recruits for whom the argument “it doesn’t hurt” works in the other direction: there was a man who, at the sound of the engine running, fell to his knees and shouted that he wouldn’t go into the tank.
It's the same on the battlefield. Captured equipment, which is quickly put on the move and stolen by Pyatnashka tankers, as a rule, remains with ammunition. If a caterpillar falls off, the Ukrainian military simply abandons the car and runs. It's scary to realize that you are an immovable target. “Not everyone is taken out psychologically to work in a stationary car. And I only have one deputy tech, Bulldog, who burned eight pieces of equipment from his standing tank,” Surovikin casually remarks, and then you begin to understand where he got such a call sign. The word “crazy” is also about reckless courage, pronounced with admiration. So volunteers still join the armor, “because we are men with balls,” the battalion commander grins.
The battalion commander himself is constantly on the front line, he says, “I’m a gunner.” He travels as a gunner operator, but if two or three units of equipment are needed to complete a task, he works as a spotter and gives coordinates. Generally speaking, all the tankers here are infantry. It’s just that, during numerous heavy battles, the brigade realized that it is easier to have your own armored vehicles than to beg someone for support, when every second in battle is worth its weight in gold and can cost the lives of many soldiers. Most often, armored vehicles are used for assault, supporting infantry during “roll-ups”, when, according to Maxim, the entire attack with the capture of a position with good organization takes 15 minutes. But special tasks are also performed.
“We are extinguishing American mortars. The equipment, as I said, is not being transported, but the mortars are being carried, silent, they do not allow our infantry to live, they terrorize. Just recently they caught infantry on rotation from a tank and gouged them out at night. Reconnaissance saw this moment, we stood in ambush for half the night and hit the target as much as possible. We are grateful for this,” the tanker answers boringly when asked about his most memorable episode.
"FORK RAKE"
We go around the entire hangar. Through the noise of the engines, the commander is trying to find out something from the mechanics about the progress of repairing the engine, which is hanging helplessly on chains. And the repairmen, like surgeons on the patient’s heart, are diligently trying to resurrect it, using all their skills, donor spare parts and the help of some mother. Of all the armored vehicles in the hangar, only the BTR-82 was donated by the command. The iron industry became a full-fledged combat unit relatively recently, so it has only just begun to receive support in spare parts, ammunition, and batteries.
“We took this car ,” Surovikin points to the BMP-1 with his hand, “ when reconnaissance reported on the radio that a damaged vehicle had been found at zero between our positions and the Ukrainian ones. We brought special keys, we already know what to go with, we started it and left. They didn’t fire until they started it, and then we took it out from under the fire.”
While we are gawking at yet another captured vehicle and asking about the finds left over from the previous owners, the armored group commander turns the conversation to the specifics of combat. Typically, a unit sends three vehicles, with reconnaissance supporting them. Maxim, in the place of the tank commander, oversees the work of all armored vehicles, waiting for intelligence information about the enemy’s actions and the presence of copters in the air. Here you need to spend hours repairing and checking all the important components of the machines, driving around training grounds for a long time, learning to perform delicate maneuvers, but on the field everything is simple and fast.
And now the commander orders the soldiers “everyone to the armor!”, and a deafening roar echoes through the hangar from the roaring engines. After this, the armored group advances in a slender column to the training ground. “In our free time from combat and repairs, we test recruits and teach them cameramanship, shooting, and driving skills, ” says Maxim. “ That’s why we try to go out and work often. And our veterans could use some more practice.” In a simple camouflage T-shirt in the middle of a field, among growling cars in the approaching dusk, he clearly feels lighter and freer than in a jumpsuit with awards in front of the lens.
Today his guys are practicing “fork-rakes”. Formation figures in which tanks cover infantry fighting vehicles, depending on the number of tanks: if fewer are “forks”, more are “rakes”. The personnel, explains Surovikin, must understand what distance to keep between the equipment if one hundred twenty or 152 falls. During the surge, everyone needs to feel each other. And today’s training is further strengthened by a special condition: the commander said “we work the old fashioned way, without a walkie-talkie.” And the equipment drives in complete radio silence, you also need to be able to do this, since radio communications are jammed and in battle you need to provide for everything. “We train turns on various types of soil, asphalt, concrete, if the “goose” comes off, we practice putting it on quickly, since this helps directly in combat,”— the battalion commander waves his hands. His next day in the war is over, night falls on the waste heaps. Deafened by the engines, we return from the training ground in deep darkness.
For us, what we saw and heard is a lot of impressions and a plot for stories that can be retold to others. For Surovikin, who has been fighting for the ninth year, and his fighters, this is commonplace. Everyday, already familiar work. There was such an episode, or another one. And how long will it be until the case is finished? Such people are not even aware of any heroism in their actions. Praise from the command is enough for them, and “we always get results.” But it is precisely such people who are the measure of heroism, making it easy to draw the line between the ostentatious and the real. And if the battalion commander decided to catch the Leopard, you believe that he will definitely catch it.
Text via Big Serge
[ColonelCassad] SUMMER ZAPORIZHZHYA BLOCKBUSTER
The long-awaited Ukrainian grandiose summer counter-offensive has been going on for about 80 days, and there is nothing to brag about. During the summer there were fierce battles in various areas (more on them later), but the line of contact remained virtually unchanged. Ukraine still held troops in reserve, and I did not want to draw premature conclusions. After all, they could use some new trick or pull an ace out of their sleeve.
The appearance at this stage of some of the remaining advanced Ukrainian brigades, held in reserve, indicates that the directions for the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been determined. Time will tell whether these valuable reserves will succeed in breaking through Russian lines. But enough time has passed to outline in general terms what exactly Ukraine tried to do, why and why nothing worked.
The problem with covering the war in Ukraine lies in the protracted nature of the fighting. There are those who hope for a bold operational maneuver to break the impasse. But the reality is that the combination of capability and restraint turns the conflict into a trench war with a slow pace of advance. And it is more reminiscent of the First World War than the Second.
Ukraine had intentions to break through this “meat grinder” and return to mobile operations. Get out of the grueling fight and strike at operationally significant targets. But so far these efforts have not been successful. Despite arrogant boasts of tactical superiority, Ukraine is stuck under siege, trying unsuccessfully and painfully to break through strong Russian positions. Perhaps Ukraine was not interested in a war of attrition, but attrition, of course, was already interested in itself.
STRATEGIC PARADIGM OF UKRAINE
It is worth thinking about the meaning of the war for Ukraine and the factors influencing its strategic decision-making. For her, the conduct of war is determined by many alarming strategic imbalances. Some of them are obvious: Russia's much larger population and its own military-industrial complex. And Ukraine is completely dependent on Western supplies of equipment and ammunition.
Russia can single-handedly increase arms production. And many signs from the battlefield confirm this. More new products are appearing, such as the Lancet. And Western sources admit that Russia has successfully established mass production of a localized version of the Iranian Shahid drone.
Russia also has unequal potential for striking rear areas. And Ukraine is not able to respond in kind, even if it receives the formidable ATACM missiles. They will increase the range of hitting targets at operational depth. But they will not be able to reach facilities in Moscow and Tula. Whereas Russian missiles hit any point in Ukraine.
We should not forget about Russian sovereignty and freedom of decision-making. In such conditions, a protracted positional struggle is an extremely bad choice for Ukraine. But that’s where she’s stuck right now.
This strategic disparity extends to the realm of strategic goals and timelines. Russia is deliberately waging an open war, its goals boil down more to the idea of \u200b\u200b“demilitarization” of Ukraine. In fact, territorial claims beyond the four already annexed regions remain rather vague.
Moscow definitely claims much more territory than it does now. But he deliberately conducts the operation as a military-technical event aimed at the destruction of Ukrainian armed forces. And it demonstrates complete readiness to cede territory for military reasons.
And Ukraine is pursuing maximalist goals that are of an unambiguous territorial nature. He openly declares that he strives, no matter how strange it may sound, to restore his territory within the borders of 1991. Including not only the four lost regions, but also Crimea.
The combination of two factors: Ukraine’s territorial maximalism and Russia’s asymmetrical advantages in the context of an exhausting positional struggle is forcing Ukraine to look for ways to break through the front and restore operational mobility.
Kyiv cannot afford to continue to remain trapped in a positional conflict. After all, the advantages of Russia described above will inevitably prevail. In a duel between two big guys swinging clubs, bet on the one with the bigger club. Also, positional warfare (essentially reduced to a massive siege) is not a very effective way to regain one’s territories.
Ukraine can only try to advance the front and return to mobile operations, with an eye to creating its own advantage. The only real way is to cut the most important Russian communications and supply lines. Contrary to proposals made in the spring of this year, a major offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Bakhmut or Donetsk is not suitable for this.
There are only two suitable operational targets for Ukraine. One of them is Starobelsk, the pulsating center of the Russian Lugansk front. The capture or blockade of Svatovo, and then Starobelsk, will create a real operational disaster for the Russian Armed Forces in the north of the country, with cascading consequences right up to Bakhmut. And the second is a land bridge to Crimea, which could be cut by an offensive through Zaporozhye to the Azov coast.
Ukraine's choice of the Azov option was inevitable. The land bridge to Crimea is a more confined space for military operations. And the attack on Lugansk will be carried out under the cover of the borders of the Belgorod and Voronezh regions of Russia, making the task of ousting large Russian forces much more difficult.
But an even more important reason is the complete obsession with Crimea and the Crimean Bridge - objects that will always attract Kyiv in a way that Starobelsk never could. So this offensive did not come as any strategic surprise - the video with the grinning head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Budanov did not fool anyone.
For months, the Russian Armed Forces have been filling the front with minefields, trenches, firing points and artificial barriers. Everyone understood perfectly well that Ukraine was going to attack in the direction of the Azov coast, in particular, towards Tokmak and Melitopol. Which is exactly what they then did.
A frontal attack on a prepared line of defense, without the element of surprise, is considered to be a bad decision. However, Ukraine not only launched such an attack, but also carried it out against the backdrop of general triumph and illusory expectations.
Ukraine is still constrained by a certain interpretation of the war. Kyiv and its supporters mention two successes in 2022, when Ukraine managed to recapture significant territory - in the Kharkov and Kherson regions. The problem is that none of these operations apply to Zaporozhye.
In the case of the Kharkov offensive operation, Ukraine exposed a weakly protected section of the Russian front, defended only by small covering detachments. Thanks to the dense forests and the general lack of Russian intelligence assets in the area, they were able to amass forces and achieve a degree of strategic surprise.
This does not detract from the scale of Ukraine's success. This was certainly the best use of the forces and resources available to them. And they really took advantage of a weak section of the front. But this success hardly correlates with the current situation in the south.
The mobilization that was carried out solved the problems with building up a group of troops, and now Russia no longer has to choose what to protect and what not. And the strongly fortified Zaporozhye front is not at all similar to the weakly held front in Kharkov.
The second example, the Kherson counteroffensive, is even less relevant. But the Ukrainian leadership is rewriting history in record time. In the summer and autumn of 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces banged their heads against Russian defenses in Kherson for several months and suffered terrible losses. An entire group of Ukrainian Armed Forces brigades was defeated in Kherson without achieving a breakthrough.
Despite the fact that Russian troops were in an extremely difficult operational situation - with their backs to the river. Kherson was abandoned only a few months later, due to fears that the Kakhovka dam might not withstand or would be undermined, and also because of the need to save manpower.
It is a mistake to believe that Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson did not matter. Obviously, the loss of a hard-won bridgehead is a serious setback, and the return of the western bank of Kherson was a boon for Kyiv. But let's be honest, this was not due to Ukraine's summer counter-offensive. Ukrainian officials then openly wondered whether the Russian withdrawal was a ruse or a trap.
As a result, we have one case when Ukraine identified a weakly protected section of the front and broke through it, and another when Russian troops abandoned the bridgehead due to problems with logistics and distribution of forces. Neither one nor the other is relevant for a breakthrough to the Azov coast. And a sober understanding of the Kherson counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could make Ukraine think twice before launching a frontal attack on the prepared Russian defense.
Instead, Kharkov and Kherson are presented as proof that Ukraine can defeat Russian defenses in direct combat. Although until now there have been no examples of the Ukrainian Armed Forces defeating firmly held Russian positions. Especially after mobilization, when Russia finally began to solve the problem of shortage of manpower.
Ukraine was captured by its own legend about this war, which gave it excessive confidence in its ability to conduct offensive operations. Unfortunately, for the mobilized Ukrainian Mikola, this coincided with the second narcissistic mythologeme.
One of the main advertising arguments in favor of the Ukrainian counter-offensive is the assessment of the superiority of the main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles donated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the West. Since the first deliveries were announced, there has been no shortage of boasts about the many advantages of Western models such as Leopards and Challengers.
It was argued that experienced Ukrainian tank crews were just waiting to be “let off the leash” when they got behind the wheel of superior Western cars. Particularly amusing is the practice of calling Russian tanks “a relic of the Soviet era,” without paying attention to the fact that the Abrams (developed in 1975) and Leopard 2 (1979) are also examples of Cold War weapons.
There is nothing wrong with Western tanks, both the Abrams and the Leopard are good cars. But the belief that they can make a difference on the battlefield stems from a misconception about the role of armored vehicles. Tanks have always been and will be items of mass consumption. Tanks explode, are disabled, break down and are captured. Tank forces are being depleted much faster than people expect.
The brigades prepared for the Ukrainian offensive in Zaporozhye were significantly understaffed with equipment, and it was unreasonable to expect great results from them. This doesn't mean that tanks aren't important—armored vehicles remain a critical element of modern combat. But in a conflict of equal forces, losses of armored vehicles should always be expected, especially if the enemy maintains fire superiority.
Pride easily creeps into Ukrainian thinking, fueled by a healthy dose of despair and strategic needs. Having a distorted understanding of the successes in Kharkov and Kherson, inspired by their new shiny toys and guided by strategic interests to unblock the front - the idea of a frontal attack without strategic surprise against a prepared defense seems to them to be a good idea. Add in the good old cliché about Russian incompetence and disorder, and you have all the ingredients for an imprudent decision by Ukraine.
MISFIRE
Let's move on to the operational details. How did Ukraine decide to carry out this frontal attack on Russia's fortified Zaporozhye front? There were several clues related to geographic features and information leaks. In May, the Dreizin Report published what it claimed was a Russian version of Ukraine's operational directive, which provided a general outline of the expected course of the operation.
This document was described as a summary of Russian expectations regarding Ukraine's offensive (it was not a leak of Ukraine's internal planning documents, but a leak of Russia's best guess about Ukraine's plans). It remains to be seen whether this document is genuine or not, but we were later able to cross-check it. Which was related to another, even more infamous leak that occurred in the spring of 2023, which included the Pentagon's plan to build up combat power for Ukraine.
The NATO bloc was very generous and built a mechanized strike complex for Ukraine from scratch. And since these forces were cobbled together from many different systems from all over the world, Ukrainian formations are uniquely identified by a specific combination of vehicles and equipment. For example, the presence of “Strikers”, “Marders” and “Challengers” means the presence of the 82nd Brigade on the battlefield.
Despite Ukraine's claims of operational secrecy, observers were able to determine quite easily which Ukrainian units were on the battlefield. There are several deviations from the script: for example, the 47th Brigade was supposed to be armed with Slovenian Frankenstein M55 tanks, but then it was decided to send these low-power M55 tanks to the northern front. And the 47th Brigade received at its disposal Leopard tanks, which were originally located in the 33rd Brigade. But these are minor details, because in general we got a good idea of when and where specific formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces enter the battlefield.
Judging by the units identified, the Dreizin Report was very close to what we saw at the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive. It ordered the attack of the 47th and 65th brigades on Russian positions south of the city of Orekhov, in the area between Nesteryanka and Novoprokopovka. In the center of this area is the village of Rabotino, and, of course, it was there that on the night of June 7-8, 2023, the first major offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces led by the 47th brigade took place.
But from this moment on, it becomes difficult to evaluate the “Dreizin Report”, since the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces instantly collapsed. One thing is for sure - their source was right about the order in which Ukrainian units were brought into battle. And now we can detail the operational directive and confidently say that the Ukrainians were counting on something like this:
The idea, apparently, was to break through the Russian defense line with the help of a concentrated armored attack by the 47th and 65th Brigades. After which the forces consisting of the 116th, 117th and 118th Brigades were to begin to build on their success, moving towards the Azov coast - to the village of Mikhailovka and the village of Vesyoloye in the west. The task was not to get bogged down in urban battles, trying to capture Tokmak, Berdyansk or Melitopol, but to bypass them and cut them off, taking up blocking positions on the main roads.
At the same time, a less powerful, but no less important blow would be delivered from the Gulyai-Polye area and move along the axis of the village of Kamenka (formerly Belmak). This would make it possible to cover the main offensive to the west and penetrate the Russian positions, splitting their troops in the center. Overall, this is a fairly reasonable, if ambitious and not very creative plan. In many ways, it was really their only option.
What went wrong? Well, in theory it's simple. There was no breakthrough! The lion's share of the maneuver plan was devoted to developing success - reaching certain lines, occupying blocking positions, operational camouflage of the city (approx. per.: imitation of actions) and so on. But what if there is no breakthrough? How to save the operation if it failed at the initial stage?
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are stuck on the edge of Russia's outer defense line, spending considerable resources to capture the small village of Rabotino. And/or to bypass it from the east, penetrating into the gap between it and the neighboring village of Verbovoye. Thus, instead of a rapid maneuver to break through and turn towards Melitopol, we get something like this:
One could be generous and say that the village of Rabotino is the last populated area before the Ukrainian offensive reaches the main line of defense of the Russian Armed Forces, but one would have to lie . They will first have to clear the larger village of Novoprokopovka, located two kilometers to the south. Just for reference, here's a more detailed analysis of the mapped Russian defense line, based on the excellent work of Brady Africa.
The discussion about these fortifications can be confusing because it is not always clear what is meant by the popular phrase “first line of defense.” It is obvious that there are defensive structures around Rabotino and in it itself, and the Russians decided to fight for this village. So, in a sense, Rabotino is part of the “first line”. But it is more correct to talk about it as part of the “support strip” (forefield). And the first line of continuous fortifications along the entire front is located several kilometers to the south, and Ukraine has yet to reach them, let alone break through them.
But why are both sides fighting Rabotino so hard? At first glance, this is quite strange, given that in 2022 Russia chose a tactical retreat under its fire “umbrella”. But this time they are fiercely counterattacking, trying to recapture Rabotino. The value of this village is not only in its location on the T-0408 highway. It is an excellent location on a hill. Both Rabotino and Novoprokopovka are located on a hill that is 70 meters higher than the low-lying plain to the east.
And if the Ukrainian Armed Forces move forward, trying to bypass the Rabotino-Novoprokopovka line, wedging into the gap between Rabotino and Verbov, then they will be vulnerable to fire from the flanks (in particular, from anti-tank systems) from Russian troops located on the hill. Footage has been published showing Ukrainian equipment being fired from the flank from Rabotino. And I am very skeptical that Ukraine can try to seriously attack the first line of defense until it captures Rabotino and Novoprokopovka.
Even under ideal conditions this would not be easy. This includes solving various engineering problems; and obstacles designed to draw the attacker into firing lines; and perpendicular trenches that allow enfilade (flank, longitudinal) fire on advancing Ukrainian columns; and strong defenses on all major roads.
But the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have the best conditions now. They have a tired force that has exhausted much of its fighting power. Who are trying to organize an offensive using scattered and small assault troops. The Ukrainian offensive was hampered by several factors, which together led Kiev to a real military disaster
Problem 1: Hidden Defensive Line
It must be admitted that everyone somehow lost sight of the Russian defense. Earlier I wrote that Ukrainian troops will not be able to break through it. But he mistakenly believed that it would be built according to the classic Soviet principle of defense in depth (described in detail, for example, in the works of David Glanz).
Such a defense, simply put, presupposes the possibility of the enemy breaking through the first or even second line of defense. The goal of a multi-layered (or in classical terminology, “echeloned”) defense is to ensure that the enemy gets stuck in it when trying to break through.
It can penetrate the first echelon, but as it advances it is constantly being ground down by subsequent echelons. A classic example is the Battle of Kursk, where powerful German tanks broke through the Soviet defensive line, but then got bogged down and were destroyed. An analogy can be drawn with a Kevlar body armor, in which a multilayer web of fibers is used to protect against damaging factors: the bullet does not bounce off, but is delayed, and its energy is absorbed.
I accepted the idea that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would be able to achieve a breakthrough of some echelons, but I believed that they would get stuck in the subsequent ones and would be incinerated.
What I missed, and this is the merit of the Russian command, is a hidden defensive line in front of the main trenches and fortifications. This forward belt consisted of extremely dense minefields and firmly held forward positions in the support zone (forefield). And the Russians obviously intended to fight fiercely for them. Instead of breaking through the first echelon and getting stuck in the intermediate zones, the Ukrainians were repeatedly beaten in the protective zone. And when they managed to gain a foothold, the Russians successively counterattacked to push them back.
We expected Russia to conduct a defense in depth, absorbing the breaking through Ukrainian troops and grinding them down deep in the defensive lines. But in reality they demonstrated a strong commitment to defending their forward positions, the most famous of which was the village of Rabotino.
It was assumed that Rabotino would become part of the so-called “deformation zone” or “protection zone”. An easily vulnerable buffer, where the enemy is subjected to pre-prepared fire before he encounters the first belt of continuous and strong defense. And according to aerial and satellite surveys of the area taken before the Ukrainian offensive, Rabotino was located at a considerable distance from the first echelon of Russian fortifications.
It was overlooked that the Russian Armed Forces have mined areas on the approaches to Rabotino and intend to defend themselves within the security zone. The scale of mining certainly surprised the Ukrainians. This put a strain on their already limited engineering forces. Moreover, dense minefields force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to move along previously prepared paths and repeatedly cross the same lines of fire and Russian countermeasures.
Problem 2: Insufficient fire suppression
Characteristic scenes in the first large-scale offensives were undisguised columns of maneuverable forces and assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Which were subjected to fire from the ground (missiles, ATGMs, cannon artillery) and from the air (for example, from Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters). What was most striking was that Ukrainian troops came under heavy fire while still in marching columns, suffering losses before reaching the firing lines to begin the offensive.
There are many reasons for this. One of them is the now familiar problem of shortage of ammunition. In anticipation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive, the Russians carried out powerful air and missile strikes, knocking out large ammunition depots. And when the first Ukrainian attacks failed due to powerful unsuppressed fire from Russian troops, the United States decided to transfer cluster munitions to Ukraine. Because, according to Biden, “they are running out of ammunition.”
Add to this the degradation of Ukrainian air defense, which allows Russian helicopters to operate extremely effectively along the contact line, and you have a recipe for disaster. Having neither artillery to suppress Russian fire, nor air defense to drive away Russian aircraft, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began their offensive, unsuccessfully throwing naked mobile units under a hail of fire.
Problem 3: Russian Countermeasures
It is important to understand that the range of Russian weapons now is fundamentally different from what it was during the Battle of Kherson last year. Thanks to the rapid growth of production - primarily the Lancet and adjustable glide modules for free-fall aircraft bombs.
The main superstar, of course, was the Lancet. It is believed that this loitering munition accounts for almost half of the Ukrainian artillery losses. It also filled a critical capability gap that plagued the Russian army in the first year of the war. Contrary to Western assessments that it is unable to produce enough drones, Russia has successfully increased Lancet production over a short period of time. It also established mass production of other systems, such as the Geranium attack drones.
The proliferation of the Lancet and similar systems means that there are no longer safe places within a radius of 30 km from the line of combat contact. They disrupt the deployment of critical support assets such as air defense and engineering vehicles. Increasing the vulnerability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Russian mines and fire. The use of Ukrainian artillery in the Rabotino area has been reduced due to the threat from the Lancets. They appear to be moving artillery to other areas of the front, preferring to use HIMARS to suppress the enemy.
Issue 4: Reusing Engagement Paths
The Ukrainian Armed Forces failed to make a breakthrough in the Rabotino sector on the first attempt, and they are forced to constantly bring up additional units and resources to attack these positions. Moreover, they have to overcome the same routes of entry into battle, use the same rear area to assemble and deploy strike forces.
This significantly simplifies the task of Russian intelligence, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have an effective way to disperse forces and assets or hide their transfer. The formed Ukrainian forces and materiel repeatedly took refuge in villages located directly outside the city of Orekhov - Tavriysky and Omelnik.
Russia is capable of striking rear infrastructure facilities, such as ammunition depots. And frankly, there are only so many places where these assets can be deployed if you are repeatedly advancing on the same 20 km wide front.
Recently, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar complained that the 82nd Brigade, recently deployed to Orekhov, was subjected to a series of Russian airstrikes. And she claimed that this happened due to non-compliance with the secrecy regime, as a result of which the Russians became aware of the whereabouts of the brigade.
However, this is pointless: the entire area of the operation around the town of Orekhov is no more than 25 km deep (from the village of Kopani to Tavriysky) and 20 km wide (from Kopani to Verbovoy). This is a small area where a huge number of troops passed along the same roads throughout the summer. The idea that Russia needs some kind of inside information to begin surveillance and destroy targets in the area is absurd.
Problem 5: Fragile Brigades
To “destroy” an operational-level unit requires significantly fewer casualties than is commonly believed. It can be disabled as early as 30% of losses (depending on how they are distributed). When people hear the term “annihilation,” they think it means complete loss. In colloquial speech this word is used precisely in this meaning, but for the military it is important whether the formation is capable of fulfilling the tasks assigned to it. And this opportunity may disappear much faster than it seems.
For a number of reasons, this is especially true for Ukrainian armored vehicles. Firstly, these brigades began combat operations seriously understaffed (for example, the Ukrainian 82nd brigade has only 90 Stryker armored vehicles, while the American one has at least 300). Moreover, these brigades were hastily put together from separate parts and do not have their own repair base.
Ukrainians have to engage in cannibalization. They allocate “donor” equipment, which they write off for disassembly for spare parts. This means that initially understaffed mechanized brigades will have a monstrously low equipment replacement rate and will face hidden attrition due to cannibalization.
When by mid-July Ukraine had already lost 20% of its maneuver forces and assets, this led to a catastrophic decrease in combat effectiveness. Leading brigades that have expended 50% or more of their maneuver assets can no longer properly carry out their combat missions. And the Ukrainians are forced to prematurely introduce second-echelon units into battle.
At the moment, there are remnants of at least ten different brigades in the Rabotino area, and the 82nd may join them in the near future. But the NATO plan to increase the combat power of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provided for the deployment of only 9 brigades that had undergone retraining, plus several restored Ukrainian formations. And we can confidently say that spending all these forces on 71-day battles just to break into the forefield was not part of their plans.
Looking into the abyss
I have seen many comments from analysts and writers that the introduction of additional Ukrainian units into the Rabotino sector is a signal for the start of the next phase of the operation. This is complete nonsense!
Ukraine is still in the first phase of the offensive. And only the failure of the first echelon brigades forced them to send the second (and third) wave to carry out the tasks of the initial stage. The initial attack, carried out by the 47th Brigade, was intended to make a hole in the supply line around Rabotino and advance further south to the main defensive lines. This failed, and now, in order to achieve the goals of the first phase of the offensive, additional brigades that were previously intended to enter the breakthrough are being systematically introduced into the battle - the 116th, 117th, 118th, 82nd, 33rd and others.
These brigades have not yet been destroyed, as they are being brought into battle in parts. At the moment, Ukrainian casualties account for most of the entire brigade, scattered among smaller units. More than 300 units of maneuverable equipment (tanks and armored vehicles) were lost. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are slowly but surely burning out their entire operational group, but have not yet broken through Russia’s supply line.
The great counteroffensive turns into a military disaster.
This does not mean that the operation failed, just because it is still ongoing. History teaches that it is unwise to draw premature conclusions. Luck and the human factor (bravery and intelligence, cowardice and stupidity) can always influence the situation. But so far the trajectory of events undoubtedly leads to the complete failure of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are still trying to somehow adapt. For example, they abandoned the tactic of advancing mechanized columns without support. And they are now relying on small infantry detachments, slowly trying to move forward in the area between Rabotino and Verbov. The transition to dispersal is intended to reduce the level of losses, but further reduces the likelihood of a sudden breakthrough. And it marks a temporary refusal of decisive action and a transition to that very protracted positional war.
It should be noted that in this whole story there are tangible Russian losses. Russian troops in the Rabotino sector required rotation and reinforcement, including through elite units of the Airborne Forces and Marine Corps. Russia suffered losses from counter-battery fire, lost equipment in counterattacks, and killed people holding their positions. The initial assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had great combat power. The fighting was bloody for both sides. This is not a one-sided shooting gallery, but a high-intensity war.
But the fact of the matter is that Ukraine seems unable to get out of the positional war in which it finds itself. Declaring a return to “war of maneuver” is, of course, good. But if there is no way to break through the enemy’s defenses, all this is just empty boasting. The nature of the struggle remains protracted. And if the question you have is: “Will we have time to break through the defenses before we run out of forces and means” - this is not a maneuver, but a retreat.
In my series of articles on military history, I have examined many cases in which armies desperately tried to unblock the front and restore a state of operational maneuver. But when there is no technical capability for this, all these intentions do not matter in the slightest. Nobody wants to end up on the other side of the loss count, but sometimes your wishes don't matter at all. Sometimes exhaustion just forces itself on you.
Without the ability to successfully break through Russia's powerful defenses—more long-range guns, air defenses, surveillance and reconnaissance assets, electronic warfare capabilities, military engineering assets, and more—Ukraine is trapped in a rough-and-tumble battle. Two big guys are swinging batons, and Russia has the bigger one.
Two bad reasons
Against the backdrop of a clear misfire and growing strategic disappointment, two new narratives are increasingly being heard. They are used to explain why the Ukrainian operation is actually going well (despite almost universal recognition in the West that its results are, at best, unsatisfactory). I would like to briefly touch on each of them.
Justification No. 1: “The first stage is the most difficult”
You can often come across the statement that it is enough for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to break through the supply line and the rest of the defensive structures will fall down like dominoes. Allegedly, the Russians have no reserves, and subsequent defensive lines are insufficiently manned. If you break through the first one, the rest will immediately collapse.
Perhaps such thoughts calm someone down, but they are quite irrational. We can start with the Russian doctrinal scheme of defense in depth, which assumes the free distribution of reserves throughout the depths of the defensive system. But it will probably be more fruitful to turn to visual evidence.
Consider Russia's behavior over the past six months - it has spent enormous effort creating a defense in depth. Really, to waste all their combat power in battles right in front of them?
There is also no evidence that Russia is experiencing difficulties in providing the front with manpower. We are seeing constant rotations and redeployments amid the general process of expansion of the armed forces. Of the two warring parties, it is Ukraine that is now scraping its bottom in search of manpower.
Rationale #2: “Get within shooting range”
This is a more fantastical story, a radical shift in the original goals. The narrative is that Ukraine does not actually need to advance to the sea and physically cut the land bridge. It is enough just to come within firing range of the supply routes to cut off Russian troops. This theory is actively promoted on the social network X (Twitter) by such personalities as Peter Zeihan (a man who knows nothing about military affairs).
There are many problems associated with this theory, most of which stem from an inflated understanding of the concept of “fire control.” Simply put, being “in range” of artillery fire does not mean effectively blocking an area or cutting off supply lines. If this were so, then Ukraine would not be able to attack from Orekhov at all, since the entire direction of its access to combat lines is within the Russian shelling zone. In Bakhmut, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued to fight for a long time after their main supply routes fell into the zone of destruction of Russian troops.
Most combat missions are accomplished within the range of at least some of the enemy's long-range weapons. And the idea that Russia will collapse if the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to shoot down to the coastal route near the Sea of Azov is quite ridiculous. After all, Russia’s main railway supply line is already within the range of Ukrainian HIMARS, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are successfully striking coastal cities such as Berdyansk.
At the same time, Russia regularly attacks the Ukrainian rear infrastructure - and so far none of the armies has collapsed. This is because long-range fire weapons are a tool that allows you to increase enemy losses and achieve operational goals. But they don't win wars just by targeting his supply routes.
But let's assume that the Ukrainians will still manage to advance - not all the way to the coast, but far enough so that Russia's main supply routes are within artillery range. What will they do? Will they bring a battery of howitzers, place them at the very front line and start shelling the road non-stop? What do you think will happen to these howitzers?
Counter-battery systems will undoubtedly cover them. The idea that you can just drag in a big gun and start shooting at Russian supply trucks is actually quite childish. Depriving enemy troops of supplies has always required physically blocking transit, and that is what Ukraine will have to do if it wants to cut the Russian land bridge.
Red herring
We must not forget about the second direction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive—in the east, in the Donetsk region. Here the Ukrainians advanced a considerable distance along the highway from the village. Velikaya Novoselka, capturing several settlements.
The problem with this “other” Ukrainian offensive is that it is, in a word, meaningless. This line of attack is in the most important operational sense futile, since it involves the advance of groups along a narrow road corridor that does not lead to anything important.
As in the Rabotino sector, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are located at a considerable distance from serious Russian fortifications, and, even worse, the road and settlements in this direction lie along a small river. Rivers are known to flow in lowlands, which means that the road runs along the bottom of a wadi/dam/glacis - choose your favorite term. Essentially, this road network is nothing more than a single lane road on both sides of the river.
I believe that this direction was planned as a ruse to create the appearance of operational confusion. But when the main efforts in the Orekhovsky direction turned out to be a colossal misfire, it was decided to continue this offensive for propaganda purposes. Ultimately, this is simply not the right axis of attack to have a significant impact on the course of the war as a whole. The forces deployed here are relatively insignificant in the grand scheme of things, and they have no intention of advancing anything important. A needle-thin breakthrough will not allow one to travel more than 80 km along a single-lane road to the sea and win the war.
Conclusion: Mutual reproaches
One of the surest signs that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has taken a catastrophic turn is the way Kyiv and Washington began blaming each other “while the dead were still warm.” Zelensky blamed the West for being too slow to deliver needed equipment and ammunition, arguing that unacceptable delays allowed the Russians to improve their defenses. This seems rather vulgar and ungrateful to me. NATO created a new army for Ukraine from scratch in the conditions of a significant reduction in training time.
For their part, Western experts began to blame Ukraine for allegedly not being able to use “combined arms combat.” This is indeed a very ridiculous attempt to use terminology (and incorrectly) to justify the problem. “Combined arms combat” is the combination and simultaneous use of various types of weapons, such as armored vehicles, infantry, artillery and aviation.
To claim that Ukraine and Russia are incapable of this intellectually or organizationally is extremely stupid. The Red Army had a complex and extremely deep doctrine of joint operations. One of the professors at the US School of Advanced Military Studies noted that: “The most complete core of theoretical works on operational art can still be found among Soviet authors.” The idea that joint operations is some kind of alien and innovative concept for Soviet officers (a caste that includes the Russian and Ukrainian high command) is simply ridiculous.
And the point here is not some kind of doctrinal stubbornness of Ukraine, but a combination of structural factors caused by the inadequacy of its combat power and the changing nature of military operations.
It is foolish to argue that Ukraine needs to learn “joint operations” when it does not have important capabilities to successfully conduct maneuver warfare. For example, adequate long-range weapons, operational aviation (and no F-16 will fix this), engineering tools and electronic warfare systems.
In essence, this is not about doctrinal flexibility, but about real possibilities. An analogy can be drawn with how a boxer would be sent into a fight with a broken arm, and then his technique would be criticized. The problem is not technique - the problem is that he is injured and physically weaker than his opponent. The problem for Ukraine is not that they are not able to coordinate the actions of types and branches of troops, but that their arms are broken.
Additionally, and I admit this is shocking to me, Western observers do not seem to accept the possibility that the accuracy of modern long-range weapons (whether Lancet drones, guided artillery shells or GMLRS missiles for HIMARS), combined with the density of surveillance systems and reconnaissance, may (except in very specific circumstances) make large-scale mobile operations impossible.
When the enemy is able to monitor areas of concentration, strike with cruise missiles and drones against infrastructure in the rear, precisely shoot the approaches with artillery and fill the ground with mines, how can one maneuver at all?
Joint operations and maneuvering presuppose the ability to quickly concentrate enormous combat power and fiercely attack weak points. This is impossible given the density of Russian intelligence and firepower, as well as the numerous obstacles they have erected to deny the Ukrainian Armed Forces freedom of movement and constrain their actions. The main examples of maneuvering in Western history—the campaigns in Iraq—have very little to do with the situation in Zaporozhye.
Ultimately, we returned to war in large forces, with extensive use of reconnaissance and destruction weapons. The only way for Ukraine to maneuver the way they want is to break through the front.
What can only be done with the help of a larger amount of everything necessary - engineering equipment, shells and artillery, missiles, armored vehicles. Only mass action can make a suitable breach in Russian borders, otherwise they risk getting bogged down in a protracted defense breakthrough. And to criticize them for their inability to understand some magical Western concept of “joint operations” is the strangest kind of reproach.
How will the war develop further? The question is whether we will believe that Ukraine will ever again have a more powerful assault potential than the one with which it began the summer. The answer is obvious - no.
Cobbling together these understaffed teams is like pulling their teeth out in advance. The hope that after the defeat in the battle for Zaporozhye, NATO will miraculously assemble an even more powerful contingent for Ukraine seems far-fetched. Moreover, American officials were quite clear that this was the best mechanized contingent that Ukraine could get.
It is foolish to argue with the assertion that this was Ukraine's best chance for a real operational victory, which is now slowly turning into modest but extremely costly tactical successes. As a result, Ukraine will not be able to avoid a war of attrition. And this is precisely the war that she cannot win. Due to all the disproportions that we talked about earlier.
Also, Ukraine will not be able to win a protracted positional war due to its own maximalist definition of the concept of “victory.” Kyiv insists it will not surrender until it returns to its 1991 borders. And the failure to dislodge Russian forces poses a particularly vexing problem. We will either have to admit defeat and Russian control of the annexed territories, or continue to fight stubbornly until Ukraine becomes a failed state.
Trapped in a fight with batons, when attempts to unblock the front through maneuvers are reduced to zero, Ukraine most of all needs a much larger baton. The alternative is complete strategic disaster.
#1
One of the surest signs that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has taken a catastrophic turn is the way Kyiv and Washington began blaming each other “while the dead were still warm.”
A lesson for Ukrainians: if you're a dog, don't volunteer for bear baiting.
A lesson for Americans: foreign wars are opium for the People.
It's all explained in the following American folk song.
[NYT] A shadowy fight is playing out on three continents for control of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s sprawling interests as head of the Wagner mercenary group. The biggest prize: His lucrative operations in Africa.
African leaders allied with Russia had grown used to dealing with Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the swaggering, profane mercenary leader who traveled the continent by private jet, offering to prop up shaky regimes with guns and propaganda in return for gold and diamonds.
But the Russian delegation that toured three African countries last week was led by a very different figure, the starchy deputy defense minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov. Dressed in a khaki uniform and a "telnyashka" — the horizontally-striped undergarment of Russian armed forces — he signaled conformity and restraint, giving assurances wrapped in polite language.
"We will do our best to help you," he said at a news conference in Burkina Faso.
The contrast with the flamboyant Mr. Prigozhin could not have been sharper, and it aligned with the message the Kremlin was delivering: After Mr. Prigozhin’s death in a plane crash last month, Russia’s operations in Africa were coming under new management.
Western officials briefed on confidential intelligence assessments say two Russian spy agencies — the foreign intelligence service, the S.V.R., and the military intelligence agency, the G.R.U. — are vying to take over key aspects of Mr. Prigozhin’s operations. Two officials, from different governments, said that the S.V.R. was likely to absorb Wagner’s propaganda and online disinformation outlets targeting foreign countries, while the Defense Ministry and the G.R.U. could take in Wagner’s mercenary operation.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Stanislav Stremidlovsky
[REGNUM] In Poland, commissions began to multiply to study Russian influence, that is, to search for “Russian agents.” On Thursday, September 7, the creation of such a commission, of which Senator Stanislav Rybicki was elected chairman , was announced in the Senate, the upper house of the Polish parliament. The task was set to “ investigate Russian influence on the legislative and law enforcement process in Poland since 2005 ,” as well as “ to identify possible threats posed by Russian intelligence services and determine ways to counter these threats, including by adopting appropriate legal decisions .”
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
