#1
Oh, really. MSM with all those fact checkers and editors seems to have missed that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, 1997-2001, was Special Forces. You don't get much higher than that.
#4
CIA needs an overhaul, and the bureaucrats, fifedom builders and silo making ass-covering risk averse paper-stackers, blanket-folders and power point rangers need to be sent packing - and the politically connected Ivy League types types need to be defenestrated.
Unless he plans to loudly and publicly impale* some of the politically connected desk pilots pour encourager les autres, crack some heads (and break a few spines as well - especially leakers), Gen Petraeus should avoid becoming DCI.
Hercules and the Augean Stables were nothing compared to this. Save reforming the CIA for when he gets elected President. ;-)
According to a familiar stereotype, Europeans have lost the long term vision that would make them want to have large families, and religion no longer provides such an incentive: the closer a woman lives to Rome, the fewer children she has.
In just the last thirty years or so, Middle Eastern countries that used to teem with children and adolescents have gone through a startling demographic transformation. Since the mid-1970s, Algeria's fertility rate has collapsed from over 7 to 1.75, Tunisia's from 6 to 2.03, Morocco's from 6.5 to 2.21, Libya's from 7.5 to 2.96. Today, Algeria's rate is roughly equivalent to that of Denmark or Norway; Tunisia's is comparable to France. Counter-intuitively, that remark about "the closer to Rome" also holds good on the southern, Muslim, side of the Mediterranean.
Just what is happening here? Everything depends on the changing attitudes and expectation of the women in these once highly-traditional societies. Demography is destiny. The first commandment in the Bible:
And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth.
#3
It is well established in demographics that when a nation reaches a particular economic plateau unique to that nation, that it suddenly undergoes a precipitous drop in its reproductive rate, usually from 6-8 children per family to about 2.1-2.3.
This happened most recently in Mexico, where they had a typical drop. But it was noted that Mexicans living in the US did not have an equivalent drop.
It was suggested that this was because, while Mexicans in Mexico had reached Mexico's economic plateau, those living in the US have not reached the US economic plateau.
This raises the theory that while Muslims in a host country might keep their own nations birthrates until they have reached their new nation's plateau; those in their home country might reach for virtual parity with their nations popular destination country.
That is, compare countries and their birthrates:
France's (1.96) Muslims are mostly of Algerian (1.75) (down from 7 in 1970) and Moroccan (2.21) (down from 6 in 1970) origin.
In Germany (1.41) most Muslims come from Turkey (2.15) (5.6 in 1970).
In the UK (1.91) from Pakistan (3.17) (down from 7 in 1970).
And in Spain (1.47) from Morocco (2.21) (down from 6 in 1970).
#4
Much of the decline in the fertility rate in the mideast arab countries is due to the urban housing shortage. Young men can't afford to get an apartment so they don't get married.
Posted by: Lord Garth ||
04/05/2011 10:48 Comments ||
Top||
#5
I'll believe it when I see resort hotels and discotheques full of party people alongside empty mosques all along the southern Mediterranean coast from Gibralter to Tel Aviv
#7
This opinion piece is a bit to much, "Don't worry be happy" about the Islamic world. Did not the leaders of Germany and France(?) recently say that multiculturalism had failed? That their Islamic immigrants were not joining with the European culture in any meaningful way?
So what if their birthrates are declining? Mark Steyn argues that demographics is a game of last man standing. Anyway, what could happen is that all of Europe becomes like the Balkans with religious and nationality and ethnic enclaves striving for power and influence that occasionally breaks out in some type of violence up to actual war. See Israel and Gaza.
Rifle 308
This summer Leon Panetta, the CIA Director, is widely tipped to take over from Bob Gates as Pentagon chief. General David Petraeus, who is said to be exhausted and eager to leave Afghanistan, is being tipped by NPR as a serious contender for Panettas job.
It wouldnt be unusual for a military officer to take over at Langley but Petraeus known to some as King David has no specialist intelligence background.
The possible move shows that the Obama administration is having a hard time finding a slot for the general, once considered a potential 2012 nominee for Republicans.
#1
The possible move shows that the Obama administration is having a hard time finding a slot for the general, once considered a potential 2012 nominee for Republicans.
Community organizer politics? Do we know what Petraeus' politics are?
#2
It wouldn't be unusual for a military officer to take over at Langley but Petraeus -- known to some as King David -- has no specialist intelligence background.
Petreaus is a very, very strong advocate and supporter of both strategic and tactical intelligence. He probably has a greater appreciation for what the intelligence community brings to the warfight than any general officer in recent history. Having said that, I seriously doubt he would accept the job.
#3
If you're going to ramp down the uniform side of the war, unless you're going to throw in the towel, that means you're doing a ramp up on the covert and special ops side. Who'd you want to run that deal?
Putting a 'customer' in charge of the place who knows what the guy on the other end needs as far as intel is concerned could help in bring some focus and discipline in to the process. It'll also short stop the infighting between CIA and DIA at the upper level.
However, the real consideration is that the general would make a formidable opponent for November 2012. Best to find a place to park him so as not to get any ideas. Keep him busy, keep him happy.
#4
Panetta went to CIA because the Agency had gone rogue under Dubya, in the sense that it was actively working against his policies. Panetta - a hardcore, old-time-style Democratic pol who'd worked as Bill Clinton's chief of staff, was the perfect man to make sure that the Agency didn't get out of line for The One. I have a sneaking suspicion his job at Defense will be to insure nobody - nobody - even thinks about speaking out on the cuts that are coming. Petraeus is a smart, dedicated officer who will take the job at CIA and run with it...and as P2K says, if Petraeus is busy trying to accomplish the mission and save American lives, he's not going to be thinking about running against The One.
Mike
Posted by: Mike Kozlowski ||
04/05/2011 11:29 Comments ||
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#5
A bit more on Petraeus and his understanding of the intelligence process as it applies to the current conflict:
#7
CIA needs an overhaul, and the bureaucrats, fiefdom builders and silo making ass-covering risk averse paper-stackers, blanket-folders and power point rangers need to be sent packing - and the politically connected Ivy League types types need to be defenestrated.
Unless he plans to loudly and publicly impale* some of the politically connected desk pilots pour encourager les autres, crack some heads (and break a few spines as well - especially leakers), Gen Petraeus should avoid becoming DCI.
Hercules and the Augean Stables were nothing compared to this. Save reforming the CIA for when he gets elected President. ;-)
*I am speaking Symbolically... I think.
This was posted to a different thread. Should have been here.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
