UNDERHILL, Vt. (AP) — Could climate change dull the blazing palette of New England's fall foliage? Underhill. Isn't that where Bilbo Baggins lived? Or was it Winnie ther Pooh? It's a fary tale anywhoo.
The answer could have serious implications for one of the region's signature attractions, which draws thousands of "leaf peepers" every autumn. Leaf Peepers? Sounds Kinky.
Biologists at the University of Vermont's Proctor Maple Research Center will do some leaf peeping of their own to find out — studying how temperature affects the development of autumn colors and whether the warming climate could mute them, prolong the foliage viewing season or delay it. Warming isn't prolonged here. It's normal.
Using a three-year, $45,000 U.S. Department of Agriculture grant, they're planning to measure the color pigments in leaves exposed to varying temperatures in hopes of finding a pattern. The study starts next month, although some experiments are already under way. They only got 45 Grand? Pikers!
"It is getting warmer, No it isn't and people want to know how that's going to affect this big process that's so important to us," said research associate Abby van den Berg. When I was working in Cambridge, Mass back in '92 I was showing some fall pictures of East Tennessee to a young Engineering graduate. She said, "These pictures are in Tennessee?". I said yes. She then said, "I thought New England was the only place the leaves changed color in the fall".
The three-week period of peak foliage color — usually from the end of September to mid-October — is among the busiest of the year for Vermont tourism, bringing in an estimated $364 million, according to state officials. It's also an important time for tourism in the other New England states. It's all about the money.
"It's a critical season for us," said Allison Truckle, owner of Tucker Hill Inn, in Waitsfield, which does about 40 percent of its business in autumn. It's a myth that the leaves are prettier in New England.
Many variables go into triggering leaf color, but for now the research will focus on temperature. The experiment is starting with the researchers' assumption that the brilliant colors are promoted by cold nights followed by warm, sunny days. My observations of foliage color change in South Alabama are not scientific but it can be 90 degress in October and the leaves still change color. I think it has more to do with moisture content.
"Do cold nighttime temperatures affect and promote fall coloration? And specifically, we're really looking at anthocyanin synthesis, the red pigments that are created at that time," van den Berg said.
The study also will look at whether cold daytime weather plays a role.
In the fall, chlorophyll — the green pigment in leaves — breaks down in response to decreasing day length, revealing the yellow to orange anthocyanin pigment.
In preliminary experiments so far this year, van den Berg has been subjecting groups of sugar and red maple saplings to a range of temperatures. Some of the test subjects are kept in a constantly refrigerated box with a window to let in sunlight, some potted saplings spend their days outdoors and then are moved into a cooler at night, and some just remain outdoors with no artificially altered temperature.
Every few days, she tests the leaves with handheld meters to measure their chlorophyll and anthocyanin content.
So far, it's too early to tell what effect temperature is having, but the researchers expect to have results before the three years is up.
The study is unique in investigating how climate change might affect the timing and color of fall foliage, said Jake Weltzin, head of the USA National Phenology Network, which has started its own volunteer effort to track how climate change affects certain plants.
In previous years, the University of Vermont research center found a link between the amount of stress on sugar maples during the growing season — marked by a lower level of nitrogen in leaves — and the onset and amount of red in the leaves.
"So trees that were experiencing a little more stress tended to start turning color a little earlier and making more red," van den Berg said.
Van den Berg says she's noticed that in warmer autumns, brilliance is muted in some places. But she tries not to put too much stock in what she sees from place to place.
"It's always great. ... It can be peak in different places at the same time so you just drive around and you hit all these different pockets of the landscape, so it's always fabulous," she said.
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
09/27/2008 14:21 ||
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"So trees that were experiencing a little more stress tended to start turning color a little earlier and making more red," van den Berg said.
The key to a brilliant fall - Hire drill instructors to yell at the trees. Now where's my $45K?
Posted by: ed ||
09/27/2008 15:30 Comments ||
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#2
1. 20th century warming wasn't due to rising CO2, something else is. Most likely changes in the sun.
2. Increased atmospheric CO2 should REDUCE stress on plants and trees.
Posted by: Minister of funny walks ||
09/27/2008 15:53 Comments ||
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#3
Colour change? Due mostly to the length of daylight, is my understanding. The relative brilliance isrelated to moisture and nutrition stress on the trees. Red is only one of the colours, and I believe sugar maples are the most common red-leaved trees up there in leaf peeper country; yellow another. I have native spice bushes in my back yard, and they should turn the most amazing clear, bright yellow soon. Autumnal colours are much bolder here than in Europe, in my experience. At least in Germany, where the trees in the woods near my house turned only subtle shades of dull yellow and brown.
#4
tw, do you make Spice Bush Tea? The dried berries are an excellant substitution for allspice.
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
09/27/2008 16:32 Comments ||
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Yeah, things are sure getting dull. Here is a dull picture of a rainbow and fall foliage on Eagle River Road, north of Anchorage. It was taken by my friend Jacqueline in a moment of bordom, heh. GWMA:
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
09/27/2008 16:35 Comments ||
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#6
here in San Diego, some of our hottest months are September/October. No wonder our fall foliage isn't turning colors
Posted by: Frank G ||
09/27/2008 17:06 Comments ||
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#7
$45,000 -- just another reminder of why we need to clean house in Washington.
Posted by: Frank G ||
09/27/2008 19:10 Comments ||
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#10
tw, the small leaves in the Spring are best for Spice Bush Tea. It doesn't take many.
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
09/27/2008 19:27 Comments ||
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Here in Colorado, we see a very systemic change of fall colors from our aspens. The higher the elevation, the earlier the trees change color. As the weeks progress, the color becomes more pronounced on lower and lower slopes, until even the aspens in town change. FWIW, the change started about a week EARLY this year...
Posted by: Old Patriot ||
09/27/2008 21:21 Comments ||
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In a bid to expand four-party alliance ahead of the parliamentary election, BNP leadership has started talking to some of their former colleagues who are leading other political parties now after leaving their old party.
Posted by: Fred ||
09/27/2008 00:00 ||
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Bulgaria's transport minister says a Ukrainian ship has sunk in the Black Sea and rescuers are searching for survivors.
Petar Mutafchiev says the Ukrainian ship Tolstoy, sailing under the North Korean flag, sank 15 miles off Bulgaria's coast. It disappeared from radars at 4 a.m. (0100 GMT) on Saturday and all crew were missing.
He said that the boat did not give a distress signal and there was no information about the number of crew on board.
Bulgarian air force choppers were searching the area. Military and commercial ships have joined a rescue operation complicated by strong winds.
Bulgarian port officials said the 5,000-ton Tolstoy was carrying a cargo of scrap metal to the Turkish port of Nemrut.
#4
Those ships are really decrepit and way overloaded. Any water entry and they will go down very quickly.
I know one Ukrainian sailor who captained a Greek scrap iron carrier. It sank very quickly when caught in a sudden storm. The crew barely made it off.
Posted by: ed ||
09/27/2008 17:01 Comments ||
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#5
Maybe the owners will take a write off for an future archaeological treasure.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
09/27/2008 17:24 Comments ||
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There's a real simple answer to whether this was an accident or a military endeavor. Find out which Class Society classed this ship. If it was Lloyd's Register, Det Norske Veritas or ABS, it was military. If it was someone else, there's a good chance it was an accident or mechanical/structural failure.
The three Class Societies I mentioned above check their ships very well using honest, knowledgeable, competent, conscientious inspectors. Other Class Societies are, shall we say, a bit less stringent about their inspections. Some, the bottom of the barrel, inspect only the brown envelope and its financial contents before certifying a vessel as safe. Those Class Societies tend to have a LOT of problems with their ships...
Russia warns Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili could return chaos to the Caucasus, following his recent order to attack the region.
In a warning message, addressed to the EU, the Russian foreign ministry noted that 'Saakashvili's habit of breaking promises' continued to constitute a threat to the region, the northern parts of which came under attack on August 7, by the Georgian army in an attempt to retake the independence-leaning republic of South Ossetia.
"We hope that the European Union, which pledged to guarantee the non-use of force principle, will take into account Saakashvili's habit of breaking promises," Ria Novosti reported quoting the contents of the ministry's statement.
An EU mission is expected in the region by October 1st, to guarantee observation of a French brokered cessation agreement on the issue.
The statement echoes Russian officials raising similar concerns. Last month, Russia's Deputy Chief of Staff, Colonel General Anatoly Nogovitsyn said that "we have registered an increase in [Georgia's] reconnaissance activities and preparations for armed actions in the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict zone".
Russia had repeatedly cautioned Tbilisi against manhandling the situation in the region after suspecting Georgia of being behind uncalled-for armed movements and reconnaissance flights in the republic.
Georgia, however, conducted the attack eliciting an armed response from Russia. Moscow, as well, accuses Tbilisi of acting on US' orders. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin told the country's NTV television last month that "it is hard to imagine that Saakashvili embarked on this risky venture without some sort of approval from the side of the United States."
"Mikheil Saakashvili, who is a war criminal, was used by crazy radicals from Washington, usually neocons headed by Vice-President Dick Cheney," State Duma Deputy Sergei Markov told Press TV earlier in the month.
Georgia, on the other hand, alleges that Russia is seeking 'acquisitive interests' in moving closer to the republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia which, on August 26, were recognized by Moscow as independent states. "The Russian Federation's actions are an attempt to militarily annex a sovereign state - the nation of Georgia," Saakashvili said.
Posted by: Fred ||
09/27/2008 00:00 ||
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TOPIX > CZECH, RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE QUARREL OVER US MISSLE SHIELD. Russ INTEL Agents working hard for mainstream Czechs + Govt. to fell the NYET over GMD-BMD MisBases in Czech land.
Young people think a steady stream of immigrants is eroding Britain's national identity and threatening jobs, a survey said today.
Almost two-thirds (60%) of the young people surveyed in the poll by the British Council thought the presence of foreign immigrants was "diluting" their sense of national identity.
A quarter said immigrants posed a threat to British workers' jobs and 12% said they thought the influx of people from abroad was a risk to security and public order.
Two thousand people aged between 18 and 35 were asked about their attitude towards immigration and their sense of national identity.
The survey comes as shadow Home Secretary Dominic Grieve warned that multiculturalism in the UK has left a "terrible" legacy, creating a vacuum that has been filled by extremists.
In an interview with the Guardian newspaper, Grieve said: "We've actually done something terrible to ourselves in Britain. In the name of trying to prepare people for some new multicultural society we've encouraged people, particularly the sort of long-term inhabitants, to say 'well your cultural background isn't really very important'."
He told the newspaper that long-term inhabitants have been left fearful, while second- and third-generation immigrants have felt alienated and unsure what British values stand for.
Both the survey and Grieve's comments come on the eve of the Conservative Party conference.
The British Council said the results of this week's survey were "worrying".
"This study throws up some interesting reflections, and also some rather worrying results," said Paul Docherty, the director of the British Council in Italy.
"Although there are many areas where British and Italian young people have a positive outlook, it is clear that there are stark challenges facing our societies in staying in touch with our younger generation and addressing some of their fears."
The survey was split between young people in Italy and the UK and was commissioned by the British Council ahead of its annual Anglo-Italian conference to discuss how political establishments can stay in touch with young people's fears and ambitions.
In spite of greater European integration since the Maastricht Treaty was signed in 1992, just 7% of Britons surveyed said they felt like a European citizen, while 40% considered themselves to be British.
But, while some young people said they felt detached from Europe, over half said they thought the EU helped defend citizen's rights, and 38% said it had a positive influence over the economy.
"The study was commissioned to inform debate at the Anglo-Italian conference held every year, but I am sure that the results will provide a useful point of reference for a number of other programmes in Europe and beyond," Mr Docherty said.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned Europe on Thursday that it cannot escape shock waves from the U.S. financial crisis and that to protect its future, it must take the initiative in rewriting worldwide banking rules to end the "folly" of an under-regulated system he said is now "finished."
Sarkozy, who also holds the European Union's rotating presidency, said he would propose swift action by the 27-nation bloc at its next meeting to tighten controls over European banks. But beyond Europe, he said, the leaders of all the world's major industrial powers should gather at a special summit before the end of the year and start to construct from scratch a new financial and monetary framework to replace the U.S.-dominated system set up at Bretton Woods, N.H., in 1944.
"We can no longer manage the economy of the 21st century with the instruments of the economy of the 20th century," he declared. The U.S.-inspired lack of regulation in recent years, he added, "was a folly whose price is being paid today."
Sarkozy's speech was described by aides as an attempt to reassure the French and other Europeans in the face of the sudden financial instability that threatens to aggravate an already bleak economic picture. In a recent survey by France's IFOP polling agency, 83 percent of those queried said they believed the U.S. crisis will hurt French people by tightening credit and reducing growth even below the 1 percent forecast for 2008.
The hour-long address, to a receptive audience of political supporters in this Mediterranean seaport, also seemed designed to project Sarkozy as an innovator taking the initiative with fellow world leaders rather than submitting to a crisis that he said originated on Wall Street and unfurled across the Atlantic because of inadequate government regulation. Throughout his career, Sarkozy has sought to portray himself as a bold leader ready to take initiatives where others hesitate -- a trait his detractors have sometimes denounced as impetuosity or overreaching.
"My dear countrymen, amid these difficulties we must lead the march of the world and not follow it," he said.
In decrying the lack of government regulation, Sarkozy joined a broad spectrum of European leaders and commentators who have interpreted the financial crisis as a death knell for the current financial markets and banking systems. Their comments sometimes have betrayed an "I told you so" sentiment, after years during which U.S. officials suggested that many of Europe's economic problems stemmed from an excess of regulation and government intervention.
French banks, in particular, have less to worry about than their U.S. counterparts, French officials have said, in part because regulatory powers are stronger in Europe than in the United States and the banks are less exposed to bad loans. The appropriate degree of state intervention in banking and financial dealings also has been a frequent subject of disagreement within the European Union. Those advocating more controls clearly have gained the upper hand for the time being.
"Self-regulation to solve all problems, it's finished," Sarkozy said. "Laissez-faire, it's finished. The all-powerful market that is always right, it's finished. . . . Self-regulation is sometimes insufficient. The market is sometimes wrong. Competition is sometimes ineffective or disloyal. It is necessary then for the state to intervene."
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, usually a stalwart ally of President Bush, also has derided the lack of regulation that, in her view, allowed the financial crisis to erupt in the United States and seep toward Europe. She and her deputies have repeatedly reminded the German public in recent days that the United States and Britain rejected her proposals last year for regulating international hedge funds and bond rating agencies.
"It was said for a long time, 'Let the markets take care of themselves,' " Merkel said during a visit to Austria on Saturday. Now, she added, "even America and Britain are saying, 'Yes, we need more transparency, we need better standards.' "
Germany's finance minister, Peer Steinbrueck, said Thursday that the "Anglo-Saxon" capitalist system had run its course and that "new rules of the road" are needed, including greater global regulation of capital markets.
Posted by: Fred ||
09/27/2008 00:00 ||
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You knew this was coming. The Euro elites have been quietly gloating over our mess, convinced that this is the time to bury free market, democratic capitalism. Their friends in the Democratic party here at home agree. Particularly if Senator Obama wins the election, you can kiss free capital markets good-bye.
Posted by: Steve White ||
09/27/2008 11:31 Comments ||
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#2
On an aside, I hope this is informative for all those who might have been duped by the msm image of sarko being a "reformer" and a "Reagan rethread".
#4
Exactly the wrong solution, but it's the only solution they know. Example, in the Great Depression in the US, it wasn't the market to blame, it was the ability to leverage the market with margin sales.
In this case, the fault is not in the self-regulated market, but in the unregulated market, again the leverage market. Today, to a great extent, we regulate margin sales in the market, but we neglected the extremely leveraged credit market.
This means that in the future, with some additional regulation, the bottom line will be that credit *at all levels* will have to be regulated. This means individuals and corporations and the US government itself.
As the saying used to go, "You can't have credit unless you don't need it." This literally means that in the future, the US government will only be able to borrow with 100% collateral of tax revenues already in hand. If they want $1M, then they must already have $1M plus interest. So there is no reason for them to bother taking debt in the first place.
#5
It made the Drudge Report with two headlines. It no longer matters that the mainstream/legacy media no longer report things; Drudge had 29,698,368 visits in the last 24 hours. Even though I'm sure there are a significant number of repeat visits within that number, nowadays Drudge is as consulted (or possibly more) than the New York Times. Even Senator McCain checks the site daily.
#7
Gov. Blunt has been criticized about cutting government spending and "email gate." The latter by none other than the current attorney general (a Dem running for Gov.) This statement is a good thing. Unfortunately, he is not running for reelection.
#8
Expect more of these Gestapo-like tactics of Obamessiah is elected. If you think the Clintons were bad, you ain't seen nothin' yet.
If Obamessiah is elected there will be goon squads, truth squads, enforcement of his holy word and suppression of free speech like nothing this country has ever seen before.
#11
When this mess is over, it will be time to discuss with the Democrap the limits of the use of intimidation, and the dangers involved in such acts. If they won't listen to words, the discussion will necessarily escalate to whatever it take to get and keep their attention. Obama has overstepped the bounds of political propriety on many, many occasions, and needs to be held accountable for each of them.
Posted by: Old Patriot ||
09/27/2008 23:53 Comments ||
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The former Secretary of State says he does not support direct talks with Ahmadinejad. “Senator McCain is right. I would not recommend the next President of the United States engage in talks with Iran at the Presidential level.”
Obama said during the debate that Kissinger, a McCain adviser, supports presidential talks with the Iranian president.
Posted by: Steve White ||
09/27/2008 00:00 ||
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You mean Obamalamadingdong LIED?
I for one am just shocked(or will be if that's the only lie he told).
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut ||
09/27/2008 0:28 Comments ||
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#2
Let the senators for Kansas and North Dakota go right when the wheat starts getting there.
#4
Senior McCain carries the big stick of experience and whacks junior Obama with it like a senior weilding a cane.
At only 47 years of age Obama failed to show he has the experience it takes to lead a country in the midst of economic crisis and in the midst of global military challenges.
McCain and Petraeus are right.
We must win in Iraq first and translate that strategy to winning in Afganistan and Pakistan.
Obama was on the defensive having to expain his choices, strategies and policies as he was obvious coached by his advisors beforehand.
Obama was unable to think on his feet and to cull from his experience as John McCain was able to do.
Obama is too dependant on anti-Bush, anti-war, anti-Iraq and anti-americanism and resurgance of terrorism in Pakistan with no real foundation of his own to stand upon, that would connect with mainstream Americans.
McCain's (Bush's and Petraeus') strategy is working and winning in Iraq.
So now the terrorists have all but given up, fled, left Iraq and gone back to back to attacking the weaker countries of Pakistan and Afganistan using the Hindu cush mountains and untamed tribal frontier as their fortress stronghold.
Obama's strategy is no more sophisticated than than any of the other military strategies of pure brute force that have failed in that region since Alexander the Great.
We must elect someone like McCain who will give Petraeus the opportunity to work out a winning strategy in the tribal frontier where al quaeda and the taliban have as their only safe refuge.
Working to be liked more by our so called allies is not a winning strategy.
The President as the CEO of the United States (POTUS) must put America first and not sell us out to the competition and cut deals with out enemies.
Obama has yet to prove where his allegiance really lies.
America is the only nation that has truly taken on terrorism and freedom from oppressive governments (with the exception of Tony Blair).
What is Barack smoking to say we need to look to other countries or leaders to show us how to fight for truth and freedom.
I believe Americans will see through Obama's disingenuous play on words that hides his anti-american sympathies,
but will vote for the true pro-american John McCain.
#5
I napped during the debate so this is hearsay BUT bho said we need to project our power? Then ticked off several geographical locales where we opened fronts in the GWOT as far back as '02? This is information that has escaped his perusal? Ya don't know what ya don't know but that's a tad too deficient in a very important area.
#6
East to armchair qtrback, but I think Mac played slow pitch the entire night. I hope the fighter pilot comes out in him in the next one. Obama was on the ropes time and time again. Mac missed an opportunity when The One mention money for education kindergarten sex ed. He also missed an opportunity when asked, "how did all of this happen?" He should have asked The One to have his campaign advisor Jim Johnson give a full report. Failing to look at Obama robbed Mac of a chance to see how nervous and agitated Obama was getting. He needs to LOOK at the target!
More than 190,000 Muslims prayed in Jerusalem's flashpoint al-Aqsa mosque on the last Friday of Ramadan amid tightened security in the Holy City, Israeli police said.
Police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said there had been no major incidents but that security forces would remain on high alert for Lailat al-Qadr (Night of Revelation), a Muslim holiday in which many believers pray through the night.
The holiday is celebrated near the end of the holy month of Ramadan, during which devout Muslims all over the world fast from dawn to dusk.
Al-Aqsa mosque - - Islam's third holiest site - has been a major flashpoint in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and was the site of the outbreak of the latest Palestinian uprising in 2000.
Posted by: Fred ||
09/27/2008 00:00 ||
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The U.S. Mint is temporarily halting sales of its American Buffalo 24-karat gold coins because it can't keep up with soaring demand as investors seek the safety of gold amid economic turbulence. The 1-ounce coin has a face value of $50 but is priced for sale according to the fluctuating value of gold.
#4
It seems like all the coin folks I know are deeply in love with the Saint Gaudens Double Eagle, to exclusion of all else. I have to confess I wasn't even aware there IS a gold Buffalo....
#5
I just figured out how this is a bad sign. And it's worse than bad, it's... it's.. horrific!
These things never get spent, so they're pure profit for the Treasury. without all the profit they get from these coins, they'll never be able to fund the bailout!!! OH NOES!!!
Time to ad some more states so we can sell more quarters!!! But that's inflationary! Argghh!!!!
Posted by: Mike N. ||
09/27/2008 22:50 Comments ||
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Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street's five biggest firms paid more than $3 billion in the last five years to their top executives, while they presided over the packaging and sale of loans that helped bring down the investment-banking system.
Merrill Lynch & Co. paid its chief executives the most, with Stanley O'Neal taking in $172 million from 2003 to 2007 and John Thain getting $86 million, including a signing bonus, after beginning work in December. The company agreed to be acquired by Bank of America Corp. for about $50 billion on Sept. 15. Bear Stearns Cos.'s James ``Jimmy'' Cayne made $161 million before the company collapsed and was sold to JPMorgan Chase & Co. in June.
Democrats and Republicans in Congress are demanding that limits be placed on executive pay as part of the $700 billion financial rescue plan proposed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. The former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO, who received about $111 million between 2003 and 2006, said in testimony to Congress on Sept. 24 that he would accept such limits as part of the plan, after initially opposing them.
The $3.1 billion paid to the top five executives at the firms between 2003 and 2007 was about three times what JPMorgan spent to buy Bear Stearns. Goldman Sachs had the highest total, with $859 million, followed by Bear Stearns at $609 million. CEO pay at the five firms increased each year, doubling to $253 million in 2007, according to data compiled from company filings.
Executive-compensation figures include salary, bonuses, stock and stock options, some awarded for past performance. The options were valued at a third of the fair-market price of the stock at the time the options were granted, a method recommended by Graef Crystal, a compensation specialist and author of the Crystal Report on Executive Compensation, an online newsletter. The companies value the options using different methods.
Some of these CEOs presided over the collapse of their companies and then received millions in compensation for separation packages when they left their failed companies. It is unfathomable that anyone is worth as much as some of these MBA-educated company looters. What the heck were the Boards of Directors doing? Where were the stockholders and bond holders of these companies? No wonder the FBI is investigating some of these companies. It remains to be seen whether anything comes of such investigations. What ever happened to “pay for performance?” Where can I sign on as the CEO for a company and then get compensated millions when I leave? I assure you, I will leave for a lot less than any of these guys did. Does anyone know the politics of some of the CEOs mentioned in this article and what their linkages might have been to such entities as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and such luminaries as Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, and others related to the subprime mortgage mess?
#1
the execs are paid this money to keep their mouths shut. Ultimately the BOD is responsible for the actions of the CEO and they can be sued by the stockholders.
#2
I believe the solution to America's predicament lies in Wall Street's most successful business strategy to date. Yes, I'm talking about outsourcing. Why pay traders $5 Mil/year (and the bosses $50 Mil/year) when a Chinese worker would jump at the chance to do the work for $5000/year. And work harder and longer in the process. Besides, that's where all the US dollars are anyway. What Indian Dell tech support worker isn't silently screaming to let out his/her inner bond trader?
Because these new investment bankers work for less money, previously untapped markets (because they were not worth the time for a $2500/hour worker Goldman-Sachs bees), can be exploited for all they're worth. The NKor kimchee market or rat meat futures have hardly begun to be exploited. Multi thousand dollar loans on Communist era apartments or grass thatched bungalows are the new El Dorado for mortgage bankers. Our new small market outsourced workers will lose a lot less money and make a profit doing it.
Of course we can't just allow these neophyte Masters of the Universe to trade without training. Therefore H1-B visas must to expanded to bring in these workers and get them trained. The few remaining traders who still have their jobs will be required to train their replacements before being riffed. But to give the trainers an incentive, a $5000 bonus will be given upon success training of their replacements. What the hell, make it $10,000. I'm feeling generous.
A decade or two of this outsourcing and America will be able to afford to splurge at Mickey D's once again. Of course there will some losers. For instance Manhattan cocaine dealers and high dollar strippers. But you can't make an omelet without breaking a $100 into a pile of ones.
Posted by: ed ||
09/27/2008 16:23 Comments ||
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#3
They should have hired me. I would have tanked their companies for $2 Billion.
The BOD's of these companies generally consist of extremely well-educated and successful people. That sounds like a fine idea, but my theory is that it leads to groupthink of the worst sort. After all, if you've got a PhD from Hahvard, you really don't want to raise your hand and let the other Hahvard PhD's know that you don't understand management's latest hare-brained scheme.
So my corrective proposal would be (a) to require that the board of every publicly traded company include at least one plumber, welder, electrician's helper or other person with demonstrable common sense and (b) that no action could be taken by the board unless and until the action had been explained to that guy in such a way that he could pass a multiple choice test on it.
CEO: "And so, management is proposing that the company commit $850 million dollars to the second tranche of Lehman's new debt offering, the security for which will consist of 150 popsicle sticks that have been determined by application of a Monte Carlo Simulation and the Black Scholes Option Pricing Model to have a value of eleventy jillion dollars. Any questions?"
Plumber: "Yeah, I got a question. Are you guys out of your friggin' minds?"
Posted by: Matt ||
09/27/2008 18:05 Comments ||
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#5
Matt, you're cruel. You know Professor Walter E. Williams is the only one who could explain it... possibly the good doctor Isaac Asimov, but he's been dead for awhile.
#7
Seems like stockholders should have more say on executive compensation to me. $172 million is a lot of money, even for the big banks. That should have been voted on, or the board should have been voted out, either way it looks like a couple hundred people walked away with a whole country's banking system's money. And they wont do a damned thing to them.
When Sen. Barack Obama was given the floor to speak during White House negotiations, according to White House aides, he did so raising concerns about a House Republican alternative to the Paulson/Bernanke $700 billion bailout. But those concerns weren't necessarily his, as he was not aware of the GOP plan before reviewing notes provided him by Paulson loyalists in Treasury prior to entering the meeting.
According to an Obama campaign source, the notes were passed to Obama via senior aides traveling with him, who had been emailed the document via a current Goldman Sachs employee and Wall Street fundraiser for the Obama campaign. "It was made clear that the memo was from ‘friends' and was reliable," says the campaign source.
The memo allowed Obama and his fellow Democrats to box in Republican attendees and essentially took what President Bush had billed as a negotiating meeting off the rails.
"Paulson and his team have not acted in good faith for this President or the administration for which they serve," says a House Republican leader who was not present at the White House meeting, but who instead is part of the team hammering out the House GOP alternative. "We keep hearing about how Secretary Paulson is working with Democrats on this or that, yet he never seems to consider working with the party that essentially hired him. Perhaps he's auditioning for a Democratic administration job. Our proposal didn't just spring forth fully formed; we've been working on this for several days, and Treasury staff has known about it."
#1
According to other sources, when Senator Obama was given the floor he commenced shouting at the Republicans, presumably his version of persuasion. (Why was he given the floor, anyway? He's been busy campaigning, not working on a plan to fix this thing.) However, it is good to know that his actions are being guided, rather than him being permitted to fly solo... given his understanding of things.
#2
Paulson is not part of the solution. He is part of the deomcratic cover up. Dodd and Franks should go to prison for their lack of action and fraud. They have cost the american taxpayer billions of dollars in order to put non income producing citizens and illegals into cheap housing.
Global stock prices crumbled Friday and investor anxiety mounted as another big US bank collapsed and political wrangling blocked a deal to save the beleaguered US financial sector.
With talks on a $700 billion rescue package at an impasse in Congress, President George W. Bush issued another plea to fractious lawmakers to come together and approve a plan that would restore confidence and calm frazzled markets. "We've got a big problem ... we need a rescue plan," Bush said in televised remarks minutes after Wall Street shares plummeted in line with Asia and Europe and as central banks again injected tens of billions of dollars to avert seizure on inter-bank lending markets.
After a rescue for American savings giant Washington Mutual by JP Morgan Chase in the biggest-ever US banking failure, shock waves hit European financial markets.
Belgian-Dutch financial group Fortis struggled to dispel liquidity concerns hammering its shares, insisting there was "not a single chance" of failure. The bank announced an emergency asset sale to raise 5.0-10 billion euros (up to $14 billion). Fortis closed with a loss of nearly 21 percent at 5.18 euros, its lowest reading in 15 years.
Wall Street shares lost ground Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.71 percent at 10,943.77 at mid-day. The tech-heavy Nasdaq shed 1.63 percent to reach 2,150.93.
"The markets had known that Washington Mutual was not financially sound, but they were holding out hope that the government would act [on a rescue plan] before regulators had to step in," said Nathan Topper at Economy.com. "If factions in Congress and the Bush administration do not agree today on a bank rescue package, markets could sell off further," he added.
European exchanges also took a pounding on Friday. The London FTSE 100 index fell 2.09 percent to close at 5,088.47 points while in Paris the CAC 40 lost 1.50 percent to finish at 4,163.38. The Frankfurt Dax gave up 1.77 percent to finish at 6,063.50. Asian exchanges earlier in the day also closed in negative territory, with Tokyo shedding 0.94 percent and Hong Kong 1.3 percent.
"Confidence is swinging like a seesaw at the moment," said Joshua Raymond, a market strategist at City Index. "We can ill afford to drag this out longer than the weekend. It's increasingly looking like the bailout plan lacks the substance to get it through Congress, which would be devastating to markets."
Posted by: Fred ||
09/27/2008 00:00 ||
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Link ||
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#1
From TFA:
We can ill afford to drag this out longer than the weekend.
Why not? This has been brewing since September 2007
It's increasingly looking like the bailout plan lacks the substance to get it through Congress, which would be devastating to markets.
Actually, markets will do just fine as they always have as they always will. It's the players chin deep in crummy paper who will get hit.
#2
Yes, markets will survive any crisis. The question is how many viable businesses will go bankrupt due to lack of credit, how many employees will lose their jobs, and how many creditors will lose money they would otherwise have received -- these factors are the elements of old-fashioned, 19th-century-type Panics.
The question is how many viable businesses will go bankrupt due to lack of credit,..
..a Bank of the United States would provide the mechanism to insure that credit is available to viable businesses. It would also cut out the middlemen who add inefficiency and costs to the process. Independent 'Lending Institutions' would have to meet or beat the terms the line of credit extended by a BotUS or take on risks that the Bank would not.
#4
--- Another element at stake that hasn't been mentioned on Rantburg so far: Pensions. If financial institutions supporting them collapse, the holdings that generate pension income will crash, pension payments will stop; government bailouts (PBGC) are already wired into the system, and will very likely cost more than what's needed now.
--- That horse isn't dead yet. Most of the electorate is still clueless as to what is at stake -- their jobs, or their pensions if they have any.
--- We need to focus exclusively on freeing up the credit markets and lessening the impact of bankruptcies. Saving people from foreclosure, keeping housing values absurdly high, and sweetheart deals need to be removed from the process. A "Bank of the United States" does not need to be created to do this. There is enough vagueness in the debated Treasury proposal to allow this credit market/bankruptcy relief to be the principal thrust of federal efforts, but it is vague. Jerry Pournelle on his blog gave this prognostication on the MOAB: " There will be literally millions of transactions, all conducted by a vast bureaucracy composed largely (I would guess) of laid off Wall Street employees. Who else will they hire to do this? There will be mistakes. There will be cronyism and favoritism. There will be deliberate frauds both by bureaucrats and those seeking relief. There will be misvalued mortgage papers. There will certainly be overvalued mortgage papers. There will be no time for slow study and evaluation because the success of the bailout depends entirely on acting swiftly and finally and introducing some certainty back into the situation." A Bank of the United States would most likely operate under these exact same conditions.
#5
Yes, but the Bank removes at least one if not more levels of misrepresentation, cronyism, and fraud from the process. It also moves such behaviors from stockholder civil suits to direct criminal activity with the existing penalties being the forfeiture of monies and jail that brokers, corporate executives and boards so far have avoided.
#6
I agree with the advantages you give for a Bank of the US. I do not think we have the time necessary (probably months) to set up such an entity. The credit markets typically move immense amounts of money around daily -- they will not wait much longer.
#7
That's why instead of selling another failing bank off to another institution, the government just assumes the entire structure [without the senior leadership who drove it to the brink]. You get the basics right in place, just a change of management and direct access to the Treasury to start fueling the credit market.
#8
You will not really address the crisis until the congress is dealt with, because their enabling legislation was the big cause of the irresponsible financial orgy that caused the credit crisis that we find ourselves in now.
THE STILL IN THE CHICKENHOUSE >>>>D******NG IT!!!! AND THE BETTYCROCKERCRATS ALL HAVE A FINANCIAL Y***T INF***ION.
/CHANNELING JOE
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
09/27/2008 15:32 Comments ||
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#9
pimf-----
THE FOX IS STILL IN THE CHICKENHOUSE >>>>D******NG IT!!!! AND THE BETTYCROCKERCRATS ALL HAVE A FINANCIAL Y***T INF***ION.
/CHANNELING JOE
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
09/27/2008 15:33 Comments ||
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#10
Y***T INF***ION? Usually I'm pretty good at JosephM shorthand, but that one is beyond me, Alaska Paul.
#11
That's why instead of selling another failing bank off to another institution, the government just assumes the entire structure [without the senior leadership who drove it to the brink]. You get the basics right in place, just a change of management and direct access to the Treasury to start fueling the credit market.
That would stil leave us with the problem of too many banks. With the shrinking quantity of loans (home loans especially) the quantity of banks needs to shrink also. There's now less loans and of better quality than a two years ago, so it stands to reason we require less banks and of better quality than there was two years ago.
Posted by: Mike N. ||
09/27/2008 19:51 Comments ||
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Whereas the BotUS becomes the First Leander(c) it forces efficiencies on the market. It would be like WallyMart showing up in a town full of mom and pop shops that have been less efficient in delivering the goods to the community. We've seen where that ends. The squeeze on operating costs (because they carry major overhead and commitments) would close many by itself. The 'numerous' banks/lending institutions that aren't efficient would basically be reduced to the corner Payday Loan office playing the high risk niche or disappearing.
#14
It would be nothing like Walmart showing up. Walmart is a business, run by peole who want to make money. BoUS would be a government tool run by politicians who want to buy votes.
Posted by: Mike N. ||
09/27/2008 20:46 Comments ||
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The credit crunch has been with us for more than a year. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) started cutting rates on Sept. 18, 2007, and fiscal stimulus provided a boost to second- and third-quarter gross domestic product, yet there are few signs that the combined efforts of the U.S. Fed and Treasury are making headway at putting the credit crunch to rest.
Financial market participants are still waiting for clear signs that monetary and fiscal policy stimuli have established an environment where the U.S. economy can grow its way out of its housing and credit problems. Furthermore, there are scant signs that the stimuli now in place will enable the economy to avoid a recession that would further complicate the dynamics of credit crunch and contagion.
What handful of key economic and market variables can be tracked over the next 6 to 12 months to best help us gauge whether or not U.S. policymakers are winning the war against the credit crunch?
Standard & Poor's Market, Credit and Risk Strategies (MCRS) has created a short checklist of economic and market variables and identified the general developments to track. We will continue to monitor and report on these crucial metrics in the months to come:
1. Real estate values -- must stabilize or edge higher
2. The rate of existing and new home sales -- must rebound
3. Credit conditions -- must ease up substantially
4. Crude oil prices -- must continue to decline, and then stabilize
How are things tracking now?
1. Real estate values: encouraging
2. The rate of existing and new home sales: less encouraging
3. Credit conditions: discouraging
4. Crude oil prices -- encouraging Some positive signs; some negative signs. So what if the bailout plan collapsed because of voter outrage? What's the hurry in ramming this plan through Congress? It took awhile to get to this "financial emergency?
#1
3. Credit conditions are the key thing to follow. 4. Crude oil prices vary with the value of the dollar plus worldwide supply & demand. I don't see how federal policies will change this in the next 1-2 years. #1 & #2 are almost the same thing. As I have posted before, housing prices have gone far beyond an affordable range in much of the USA & must fall far enough so that credit-worthy buyers can afford them. The rate of house sales depends on affordability, credit availability & household income.
#2
Low Property Affordability is NOT a good thing.
I personally favour an LVT so interest rates can be lower without causing a house affordability to fall. As the Land Value Tax acts like a whole market higher interest rate.
#3
One thing to watch for is fewer buyers buying up multiple homes and turning them into rental units. I suspect that there will be a lot of this happening as housing prices bottom out, investors look for places to put their money, and the notion that everyone MUST live in a house they own instead of rent remains one worthy of derision.
Posted by: no mo uro ||
09/27/2008 7:01 Comments ||
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#4
One real and usually overlooked value in renting is job mobility. Renters have a much easier time pulling up stakes & moving to another location for work, i.e., they don't have to worry about selling house #1 to move into house #2.
#5
The argument about housing prices is a hot one. Many stakeholders to consider in the mix. People who have paid for overpriced houses don't want to see the market prices to go down, their wealth dribbling away the whole time, and I can't blame them for that. But remember way back (80's) when a responsible mortgage was 3-4 years salary? Well that's still the responsible thing to do. But in places like California you can't touch a house for less than 350K. So, unless you make 115K a year, you shouldn't really be a homeowner in CA.
Does that sound realistic? Does that sound like the American Dream? Real Estate values need to come down, a lot, in my opinion.
#6
So, unless you make 115K a year, you shouldn't really be a homeowner in CA.
Does that sound realistic? Does that sound like the American Dream? That cutoff sounds quite realistic for would-be homeowners in CA. I think a big chunk of all losses in mortgage loans will materialize in that state, over & above its population & income levels. Florida will be another major contributor (As Groucho Marx once said, you can get stucco there. Oh, can you get stucco!) The American Dream is what individual Americans make of it, there's nothing written in stone saying any given percentage of Americans must be homeowners.
"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery." - Charles Dickens, from David Copperfield.
The banks and lenders drove the price up by making the 'paper' available. If they wouldn't finance at 350K but at 150K, the builders and developers would make 150K homes. They wouldn't be fancy HGTV spotlights, but they'd be practical and functional. Overprice housing is the market's way of saying time to move on to over there ->, not 'let's dream up a financial ponzi scheme'. There's still a lot of affordable housing out there, just not in the spots where a million or more people want to live. If your 'dream' is to own a home, then you need to adjust where you want your dream to be. If your dream is to be 'someplace' then it many not be to own a home. It's an old story.
#8
The dog and the bone story. The dog saw his reflection in the water and wanted the bone he saw in the water as well as his own. There is an aspect of illusion in that story as well as the fiscal mess in D.C. Yup, and if Washington doesn't listen to voter and taxpayer anger, we will end up getting "boned. again in this bailout.
After the debates last night, the talking heads were saying they thought BO won. I'm not so sure he won. Drudge had a different take this morning. I heard a typical old style big spending, big government Democrat talking about his big give-away programs he is going to have when he is elected.
I listened to the Fox panel of non-committed voters late night after the debate express how they were influenced by the debates. One women said she would not vote for McCain because he's so old and so rooted in the past. So much for the experiences that shape a person's life and character. There were a few others that expressed similar views. If I were running for office, I seriously would not curry the favor of these voters who don't have an opinion prior to the debate; haven't researched the candidates in any serious way, and vote on the basis of superficial appearances.
#9
Oh Procopius - God bless Wilkins Micawber! - Of course he fled debtors prison to lead a successful life as a respected politician in Australia! Would that we could reverse the process with some of our "leaders".
#10
I totally agree 100%, the market would compensate if it weren't impaired by bad legislation, greedy real estate agents, predatory lenders and ignorant buyers. I just think its unfortunate that what was once the achievable for the average worker is now out of reach for all but the best paid. Like I quoted above, 350K is nothing for a house in CA, the average house in Alameda county is $515,000. If you were a responsible buyer, you would have 20% down and no more than 4 years salary. That means you'd have to have $103,000 down and make 104,000 a year, or preferably $137,300 a year. Thats for the AVERAGE house in Alameda county, and thats nothing compared to Marin County. So you're right, but I think its a shameful state.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
Global stock prices crumbled Friday and investor anxiety mounted as another big US bank collapsed and political wrangling blocked a deal to save the beleaguered US financial sector.
