[The Independent] Twenty-thousand troops? We only have 25 main battle tanks working at best. Left to rot in sheds, our equipment is either ancient, non-existent or yet to arrive, while ammunition stocks would not last a week if push came to shove, says defence expert Francis Tusa
When news that the UK would be at the front of the queue to provide troops for a Ukraine peacekeeping force, possibly as many as 20,000, a contact from army headquarters at Andover messaged me: “Where’s this 20,000-figure come from? Who’s briefing this? We couldn’t do this in a month of Sundays!”
The next few days saw this “offer” drop to 10,000 to 12,000 troops for the as-yet-unspecified ground force – but the panic among army planners was much the same: there has been no requirement for such a deployment, the army is not set up for such numbers and has not been funded to do so.
And, worse, the army is at a nadir as regards its capability to provide robust, capable, war-fighting forces of the type that would be needed for Ukraine – equipment is either ancient, non-existent, yet-to-arrive; ammunition stocks would not last a week if push came to shove; and communications systems are old and flaky.
It might not go too far to suggest that the British army is at its lowest nadir since June 1940, after Operation Dynamo saw the British Expeditionary Force evacuated from Dunkirk.
Now, the main battle tank (MBT) force is at a disastrous low. The Challenger 2 fleet (just over 400 were bought in the 1990s) has a notional strength of 213 tanks, after 14 were donated to Ukraine. However, these have been at the receiving end of “malign neglect” – maintenance regimes slashed in the 2000s and 2010s, spares not purchased, and supply chains disappearing as companies went bust. In 2023, it was reported that only around 160 of the fleet was in any fit state to be used on operations (after extensive, expensive work) – and the situation got worse.
The end result? The Royal Armoured Corps has not been able to deploy a realistic Challenger 2 regiment of 59 tanks for many years. Lack of available Challenger 2s has meant that the army’s ambition for MBTs has been at the 20 to 25 level, at the very best.
When Denmark and Sweden have more credible tank forces than the United Kingdom, you know there’s an issue. And, as the Ukraine war has shown, tanks do have a major role, especially if a peacekeeping force were to be a credible deterrent.
The Royal Artillery used to have a force of over 100 self-propelled AS90 artillery pieces. But much like the Challenger 2 fleet, this had been left to rot, with only a handful available even for training. Just before Covid, I sat next to a lieutenant colonel who was taking over an AS90 regiment: “I have 24 guns in the shed, no tracks, no engines. I will have to do a lot of work to stop morale falling.” That was over five years ago, and, again, the issues of no spares and defunct supply chains have not made this situation any better.
At least 32 AS90 have been gifted to Ukraine – an entirely sensible move. But this has left the army with little to no artillery. An interim batch of 14 Swedish Archer 155mm guns has been bought – but this is an incredibly limited number. And if the Ukraine War has shown us anything, artillery is still the queen of the battlefield. A British force deployed to Ukraine would need substantially more artillery, or would lack credibility.
And even assuming that the army could deploy 12 Archers as part of a Ukraine ground force (24 to 36 is what would be needed, at least), to make them credible they’d need the ammunition stocks.
In combat, Ukraine has shown that you have to budget for 200 shells per day, per gun – and that’s a floor, not a ceiling. And you’d need at least 30 days’ supply, maybe 60 days. In total, that’s a minimum of 75,000 shells, with a cost of £350m, and as high as 150,000 shells at £700m. At present, the UK simply does not hold anything like the sort of artillery ammunition stocks that would be needed in conflict. Indeed, it will take several years for these to be reached.
These are two vignettes – but they are representative of the parlous equipment state of the British army. Other armoured vehicle fleets are equally in dire straits. Think about it: 35 years ago, Warrior infantry combat vehicles charged into Kuwait; 30 years ago, a Warrior battlegroup was deployed to Bosnia amid much acclaim. The vehicles that are still in service are substantially the same as they were – opportunities to modernise and upgrade have been forever pushed aside.
Some might point to areas where the picture isn’t all that bad. The Boxer armoured personnel carrier is in full production, vehicles are being delivered to the user; the Challenger 3 upgrade, to create a new, modern version of the current Challenger 2 is underway. The Ajax family of armoured vehicles is also in production; and last year, an agreement was signed with Germany to cooperate and co-produce an artillery version of Boxer. So, the darkest time is just before dawn and we can now see the first glimmers of sunlight on the horizon.
However, and here’s the beef, Challenger 3 tanks won’t be delivered for at least 2 years, and these will be for trials, not for operations. There have been offers by industry to accelerate Boxer deliveries that have not been accepted by the army/MoD, so we are some years off from the army to be able to deploy into combat areas.
Similarly, new artillery systems won’t arrive until the end of the decade, a five to six-year wait (in contrast, the time between order and delivery of Ukraine’s Boxer artillery systems was 27 months. There have also been offers of accelerated deliveries for the UK, but no decisions have yet been made). Ajax? Who knows? It is already a decade late.
So, what can the army offer for a Ukraine peacekeeping force? “Can you round up 12,000 troops with their weapons, on a parade square, and then put them on buses to Ukraine? Probably,” says my Andover source. “But what can they do once they are there? There are unmarked minefields everywhere, so you’d need a whole load of protected vehicles – which we either don’t have, or we let them moulder in sheds. So, what? Let them patrol in unarmoured Land Rovers again? That went well in Iraq and Afghanistan.”
And even if you could round up a 12,000 force, after six to eight months you’d need to rotate them with another 12,000 troops, the same again six to eight months after that, and so on. Under the current funding arrangements, the army (and the same is true for the Royal Navy and RAF) is currently not organised to do this.
Regarding the costs of any Ukraine peacekeeping operation, taking ones from the 1990s and 2000s, 12,000 to 15,000 troops would be £3bn to £5bn at the very least. Again, the army is not funded for this, so it would have to come out of central reserves.
A wider set of questions, therefore, needs to be asked. Has the army spoken truth to power about what it can realistically do? Or has the famed “can do” attitude been to the fore: “Don’t worry: it’ll be alright on the night?” Has institutional embarrassment meant that deficiencies have not been highlighted, so the prime minister doesn’t have a true picture of how bad things really are?
#2
Sad story that seems based on actual knowledge. Given the way the Brits talk about defense and national security, I'm reminded of an old Navy expression my Grandfather used: "Battleship mouth with a tugboat ass"!
[Jpost] In an exclusive interview with The Jerusalem Post, Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Iryna Mudra outlined Kyiv’s strategy for securing compensation and ensuring justice for the victims of war.
As Ukraine marks three years since Russia’s full-scale ground invasion and its forces continue to battle Russian forces, Kyiv is intensifying its push for financial reparations, arguing that Moscow must be held accountable for the devastation it has wrought.
In an exclusive interview with The Jerusalem Post, Iryna Mudra, Ukraine’s deputy head of the Presidential Office, outlined the country’s strategy for securing compensation and ensuring justice for the victims of the war.
“You can see the war continuing despite any negotiations or any pretension of negotiations,” she told the Post a day before Russia’s biggest drone attack of the war on Ukraine’s capital.
“We do want negotiations, but we don’t see this willingness from the Russian side,” Mudra said. “Last Wednesday, the Russians damaged the heating system in Odesa, leaving people in their houses at -9°. They continue bombing buildings and hospitals. They are not willing to negotiate. At least they don’t show this by their behavior every day.”
Mudra, in her position since early last year, has been instrumental in advancing Ukraine’s efforts to secure compensation and war reparations as a consequence of the war, and this stems from her legal background. The former deputy justice minister has played a pivotal role in establishing mechanisms to address the extensive damages inflicted upon Ukraine.
Ukraine has documented a staggering number of alleged Russian war crimes, with over 173,833 crimes relating to the “aggression of the Russian Federation,” as they are legally called, according to Mudra.
“The crimes against peace, human security, and international legal order alone exceed 153,000 cases. Just the registered figure of civilians killed is about 14,000, with nearly 30,000 injured. Among them, 600 children have been killed, and over 1,700 have been injured.”
Beyond the immediate loss of life, Mudra highlighted Russia’s systematic efforts to erase Ukrainian identity.“What Russians do is they continue to hold our children hostage. They take children from the occupied territories, from their families, and move them to the Russian Federation or occupied regions. The number is in the thousands. It makes it impossible to negotiate fairly with them.”
Kyiv has worked hard to document all Russian attacks on both civilian and state facilities – over 160,000 residential buildings attacked; over 3,000 educational institutions; almost 1,000 medical institutions; and the list continues, with cultural facilities, religious buildings, network and communications infrastructure, and much more.
SPEARHEADING EFFORTS TO SECURE FINANCIAL REPARATIONS
Mudra has spearheaded efforts to create a framework for securing financial reparations. Ukraine has already taken steps to establish an International Register of Damage, officially launched in The Hague in April 2024. This database collects claims from individuals, businesses, and the state itself, providing a legal foundation for future compensation claims.
“This register is operational and has started accepting applications from victims,” Mudra said. “Anyone who suffered damages in Ukraine after February 24, 2022, due to Russia’s aggression, is eligible to apply.”
The next step, Mudra told the Post, is the formation of an international claims commission that will define compensation amounts.
“We are working with 53 states, the European Union, and the Council of Europe to finalize negotiations by the end of the year. The goal is to have the commission up and running early next year.”
Ukraine is also advocating for access to Russian state assets frozen abroad, particularly the nearly $300 billion held in G7 countries.
“We are calling on European and American partners to provide Ukraine access to these funds,” Mudra said. “This money should be used for Ukraine’s reconstruction, for rebuilding critical infrastructure, and for purchasing military equipment.”
She emphasized that Ukraine is not merely seeking financial assistance but a means to hold Russia accountable.“Russia will never willingly repay under its current government. However, under international law, Article 4 of the Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts obliges Russia to make reparations.”
Mudra is also leading efforts to establish a Special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine.
“This is a crime committed by the highest political and military leadership of the Russian Federation,” she said.
“Unfortunately, they are protected by immunity under international law, but that does not mean they should escape justice.”
Under international law, the “crime of aggression” is the planning, initiation, or execution of a large-scale and serious act of aggression using state military force; it is for this specific crime that Ukraine wants to hold Russia responsible.
Mudra pointed to historical precedent, noting there have only been two tribunals for crimes of aggression in modern history – the Nuremberg Trials and the Tokyo Trials after World War II.“This will be the third,” she said.
As Ukraine continues its legal and diplomatic battle, it has also faced external challenges, including shifting rhetoric from key allies. US President Donald Trump recently called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” and demanded Ukraine repay the “$350 billion” it received in aid from the previous Biden administration with its rare earth minerals.
Talks also took place last week in Riyadh between American and Russian officials, although, notably, Ukraine was not invited. Significant obstacles remain in Kyiv’s push for accountability and compensation, particularly in navigating international legal frameworks.
Mudra acknowledged the complexity of the process but remained resolute.
“The financial aid we receive is decreasing, not increasing,” she said. “That is why we are calling for access to Russia’s frozen assets. This is part of justice. This is part of accountability. Without it, there will be no real peace.”
Beyond the immediate war effort, Mudra also emphasized Ukraine’s deep historical ties to Israel, highlighting that the country has long been commemorating Jewish history, including sites such as the Kharkiv Holocaust Museum and ongoing efforts to develop the Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center in Kyiv.
“Many people don’t realize how deeply intertwined Ukrainian and Jewish histories are,” she told the Post. “It is obvious that our main task today is to survive, and therefore we are trying to convince the Israeli authorities that together, we could be stronger,” she noted.
“Sharing technology and opening access to your armed forces’ market could also protect thousands of our people. Your air defense systems are some of the best in the world – if not the best.
“Everyone knows David’s Sling missiles and the famous Iron Dome system, and selling them to us would help us save entire cities from the threat of missiles. So this is somewhere our authorities could cooperate.”
Pointing to more future collaborations, she stated that Israel also has much to learn from Ukraine in its battles with Iran and its proxy groups – Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
“Ukraine also can give Israel a lot,” she related. “There are drone technologies, the latest proven battle tactics. There are developments in the field of cyber warfare. We can share these skills and this knowledge with Israel.”
The Post was in Kyiv on Saturday night as it came under the heaviest drone attack since the start of the war. Officials stated that 267 drones were launched, while the Ukrainian Air Force reported that 138 were shot down and 119, which were decoy drones, were lost without causing any damage.
Every day that passes, despite negotiations, causes more and more damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure, as well as the risks to the population. With each passing day, Mudra’s work gets harder and harder.
[John Kass] Kashyap Pramod Vinod "Kash" Patel placed his hand on the Hindu scripture, the Bhagavad Gita and swore his oath to the Constitution of the United States. It was the worst day imaginable for the Deep State in America. And it will get worse for them.
I could almost see the Deep State liar Sen. Adam Schiff’s head trembling with panic, about to explode. And James Clapper’s, and John Brennan’s and all the other Deep State heads. Don’t worry. They’ll explode like eggs left abandoned in a hot pot on the stove. They all will. And like eggs, they’ll smell of sulfur.
They’ve lost control over the federal hammer they’ve used to destroy those who oppose them. They used our sacred Constitution as a weapon. All that’s over now. He’s already defeated the Deep State. They have no shame.
Patel was sworn in at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building last week by his good friend new U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi. He’d been confirmed by the U.S. Senate as the ninth FBI director, succeeding the known liar Christopher Wray. Patel, who is Indian American, is the first person of color to become FBI director which no doubt has the old boys like J. Edgar Hoover rolling in his grave.
"I am living the American dream," Patel said after taking the oath. "And anyone that thinks the American dream is dead, just look right here. You’re talking to a first-generation Indian kid who’s about to lead the law enforcement community of the greatest nation on God’s green earth. That can’t happen anywhere else."
It takes a first generation immigrant to understand what he’s been through. Especially if we’ve come from authoritarian lands. I can understand. My brothers understand. Our father worshiped American liberty and American freedom. And Patel’s father did as well. In no other country could this have happened. Immigrants love America like few others can love her. You need a family steeped in patriotism to teach you. It is a living thing in some of us. We would never hurt America, just as we would never dishonor our family name or our fathers.
When I think of Patel, I think of his parents, running in panic to stay alive in Uganda as savage tribalism eclipsed the rule of law. He tells that story beautifully in a Wall Street Journal op ed. I leave the link in the paragraph below.
"My father fled Idi Amin’s genocidal dictatorship in Uganda," Patel writes. "My mother was born in Tanzania. They married in India and emigrated to New York, where I was born and raised in a bustling household that included my father’s seven siblings, their spouses and six children. My family instilled in me a deep respect for the rule of law and the transformative power of education. These values have shaped the driving force behind my career: protecting the rights enshrined in our Constitution."
The FBI was the world’s best law enforcement agency. I said "was" for a reason. No one believes it is a great institution now. The public trust has been broken. The FBI lost its credibility when it became another tool in Barack Obama’s Deep State tool box. The FBI was corrupted. There were dishonorable and unlawful conspiracies run out of FBI headquarters aimed at the destruction of one man: President Donald J. Trump.
Corrupted FBI officials spied on Americans hoping to put Trump in prison. They lied about it. They lied about targeting Roman Catholics and parents of public school children concerned about what the schools were teaching their kids. They even lied about the series of lies they told the American people to threaten Trump. They lied about the origins of the Deep State lie to protect Hillary Clinton and destroy the Trump administration with the completely fabricated "Russia Collusion" investigation. And so on.
They lied about the Hunter Biden laptop to protect the corrupt Joe Biden administration, the corrupt president and Hunter himself. And so much more.
"Look, I know the media’s in here, and if you have a target, the target’s right here," Patel said Friday as he pointed to himself. "It is not the men and women at the FBI. You have written everything you possibly can about me that’s fake, malicious, slanderous and defamatory. Keep it coming. Bring it on, but leave the men and women of the FBI out of it. They deserve better," Patel told reporters, throwing the gantlet in the media’s face.
Will Patel rebuild the public trust in the now ruined and sodden FBI?
I hope so. America needs a working FBI, not some hollow shell only fit for ridicule. I had good friends who were FBI agents. They loved our country. They were concerned about short-cuts that would undercut American Constitutional liberty. And none wanted to work at headquarters with the silky political cats. They were field agents. It is the field where Patel hopes to ship FBI agents to save them from the rot of FBI headquarters.
How will he rebuild the public trust? He outlined his goals in op eds and commentary that has driven the Deep State insane. He’s written an excellent book "Government Gangsters" chronicling the Deep State. We are both the sons of immigrants. We had to watch our fathers deal with authoritarian rule. And we won’t forget our fathers facing it.
President Trump’s appointments of Kash Patel at FBI and Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence were a master strokes. And former DNI John Ratcliffe now runs the CIA. They are Trump’s Deep State Rat Catchers. Make no mistake. The rats were terrified when Trump was elected, and they are even more terrified now.
Thinking of Patel and the immigrant’s dream I also think of my brother Nicholas, who like Patel is an immigrant’s son, he has traced the Deep State from its origins in the dark shadows and damp alleyways of Turkish politics. He’s been around. He is a retired senior CIA officer, National Security Council member, White House official and U.S. diplomat. And he’s been writing about the Deep State for years.
Nick writes: "This brings us to what is shaping up to be the overriding issue for 2024: aware of the Deep State, will voters finally condemn it as fundamentally un-American? Or will they disregard, or worse, embrace it—and thereby affirmatively consent to their own subjugation? The country is at a crossroads.
But Trump was victorious. And with Patel running the FBI, the Deep State won’t easily escape. Some of the large fat rats were outside the FBI headquarters theatrically stamping their feet like Deep State Rumpelstiltskins. Thanks to an X by the great and incredibly brave columnist Miranda Devine of the New York Post, I noticed the photo of Sen. Dick Durbin, Melon Head Schiff and others having a protest. Only a handful of bitter Deep Statists bothered to show up. As I stared at the photo, I wondered if their heads would explode soon.
[IsraelTimes] With all living hostages in the first phase of the deal now home, and widespread national revulsion at Hamas, conditions are ripe from Netanyahu’s perspective for resuming intensive conflict in Gaza
The decision made by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu early Sunday morning to delay the release of over 600 Paleostinian prisoners, who were supposed to be freed Saturday as part of the agreement with Hamas ..a regional Iranian catspaw,... , appears ominous.
Israel is delaying the release of the prisoners "until it is ensured that the next hostages will be freed without humiliating ceremonies," according to a statement issued by the Prime Minister’s Office.
Netanyahu made this decision — against the advice of military and security chiefs — after Saturday’s hostage releases, during which four hostages kidnapped on October 7, 2023 (Tal Shoham, Eliya Cohen, Omer Shem Tov and Omer Wenkert) were freed, along with two Israeli civilians who had been held by Hamas for over a decade (Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed).
The final releases in the current first phase of the hostages-ceasefire agreement are scheduled to take place on Thursday, when Hamas is supposed to return four slain hostages to Israel.
Many believe that Netanyahu waited to initiate action that will lead to the collapse of the agreement, and a return to the military campaign against Hamas, until phase one’s living hostages were all safely in Israeli hands.
A very sensible decision. No point in telegraphing his punches.
It appears that the conditions are ripe from his and his coalition’s perspective for another round of war, but this time with the active encouragement of a sitting US president.
Indeed. In fact, President Trump would have gone total war when Hamas was playing games a week ago. He bluntly said as much.
Hamas condemned the decision to halt the prisoners’ release. The terror group, which kidnapped civilians from their homes and from a dance party and held them for 15 months in underground tunnels, stated: "The occupation’s claim that the handover ceremony was humiliating is a false allegation, and a flimsy excuse aimed at evading the commitments of the agreement. These ceremonies do not include any insult to the prisoners but rather reflect the humane and generous treatment they receive. The real insult is what our prisoners endure.
Posturing for effect.
"Netanyahu’s decision is a deliberate attempt to sabotage the agreement and constitutes a clear violation. We call on the mediators and the international community to take responsibility and pressure for the implementation of the agreement and the immediate release of the prisoners," Hamas added.
Netanyahu’s decision — backed by the war cabinet, which includes ministers Ron Dermer, Israel Katz, Gideon Sa’ar and Bezalel Smotrich — was made against the backdrop of widespread anger that has been felt across Israel over the past three days.
From soccer stadiums (where Beitar Jerusalem fans held up a sign reading, "The Dire Revenge for a child’s blood has yet to be created by Satan") to various television pundits, calls for Dire Revenge, expulsion and annexation have been repeatedly heard.
"The last few days may be remembered as key moments in the history of the war, and perhaps in the history of the entire Israeli-Paleostinian conflict," assessed Amos Harel, the defense analyst for Haaretz, who is generally not prone to dramatic or bombastic assessments.
This sentiment is driven by several factors:
• The pathological findings indicating the horrific circumstances of the murders of the Bibas boys — Ariel, 4, and Kfir, nine months — which were published on Friday and caused deep shock in Israel.
• The fact that Hamas initially returned the body of a different woman instead of the body of Shiri Bibas (a "mix up" that was "corrected" 24 hours later), and the Israeli assessment that she too was brutally murdered.
• The grave condition of many of the released hostages and their testimonies regarding Hamas’s vicious and cynical physical and psychological treatment of them.
• The bombs planted on Thursday in four buses in central Israel, which, thanks to the alertness of a civilian, were discovered in time, preventing a major disaster.
All these factors have created a sense in Israel that there is no one to talk to and nothing to talk about.
All these factors have created a sense in Israel that there is no one to talk to and nothing to talk about — laying the groundwork for the next military steps.
"The IDF is preparing for the possibility of a renewed invasion of Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response... ," writes Harel. "Incoming Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir (who will assume office in ten days) is formulating an operational plan described as particularly aggressive. Netanyahu is now seeking to escalate the crisis with the decision he made overnight."
THE ABUSE OF GUY AND EVYATAR
One of Hamas’s most recent cynical moves, which also sparked widespread outrage, has contributed to the heightened tension in Israel.
Saturday, Hamas brought Guy Gilboa-Dalal and Evyatar David — two close friends who were kidnapped together from the Nova party — to the release site at the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza Strip, so they would witness the release of three of the Israeli hostages and deliver a desperate plea to their families, the Israeli public, and prime minister Netanyahu.
"Our friends are getting out, and we just want this to be over," the two said to Hamas’s cameras. "Save us! Netanyahu, get us home. It’s hard here, we dream of leaving."
The two, who are set to be freed in phase two of the deal, also called on their families to continue protesting in Israel to pressure the government to move forward with the agreement. The text and the entire scene appeared to be directed and dictated by their captors.
Despite extremely cold and rainy weather, thousands participated in demonstrations across Israel on Saturday night
…or hundreds, anyway…
in support of moving to the second phase of the deal, in which Hamas is supposed to release the 63 remaining hostages in its hands — at least 24 of whom are thought to be alive.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
..a regional Iranian catspaw,...
