Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Victor Vasiliev
[REGNUM] One of the main newsmakers of the beginning of 2025 in Africa has become the Republic of Chad. Its young leader Mahamat Deby, who visited Moscow a year ago, gives tough ultimatums to the French military, becomes the target of an armed attack and wins the elections.
On January 8, shots rang out near the presidential palace in N'Djamena, the capital of Chad. Rumors began to circulate about an attempted coup and an attack by Boko Haram terrorists. But everything turned out well.
And already on January 12, Mahamat Deby's Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS) won 124 of the 188 seats in the National Assembly of Chad following the parliamentary elections. The vote, which also included municipal and regional elections, was the first in Chad in more than a decade. The previous parliamentary elections were held in the country in 2011.
It's funny that since 2015, the European Union has allocated considerable funds for holding parliamentary elections, or rather, for equipping the work of the electoral commission, conducting the population census and much more. Including France.
And now, finally, the elections took place. But without any real opposition, largely with French money - under the noise of anti-French statements and against the backdrop of the humiliating withdrawal of French troops from Chad. Africa knows how to give what is deserved.
REVENGE ON MACRON
Macron, like Biden, has not been interested in competence, but in saying the fashionable thing. There are consequences for that.
Chadian President Mahamat Déby is not just positioning himself as the successor to the “great cause” of his father, Idriss Déby, who was killed by terrorists in 2021. Déby is so ambitious that he has already surpassed his father in some ways. In particular, he received the highest military rank of marshal at the age of 40.
While Deby Sr. received and held his marshal title for 31 years largely thanks to the French military presence in the region, Deby Jr. asked the French to “get out” soon after his legitimization following last year’s presidential elections.
Deby Jr. wrote an autobiography, not devoid of literary talent, “From Bedouin to President,” and in April 2024 he presented it to Vladimir Putin, whom he had visited in Moscow earlier that year. And this alone can be considered, if not a revolution, then a real rebellion against the French. Albeit symbolic: the son of a bloody pro-French dictator came to his senses and moved toward rapprochement with Russia, which in the case of Africa means the path to real sovereignty.
The decision to withdraw French armed forces from Chad by January 31, 2025 was also a symbolic humiliation for Paris. The loss of positions in Africa makes French President Emmanuel Macron noticeably nervous.
He recently said that African countries are ungrateful to France for its help in the fight against jihadism. He also explained that France did the right thing by deploying its troops in the Sahel region, but the region did not even say "thank you." And in general, there would be no talk of any sovereignty of the Sahel states today if it were not for France and its armed intervention against jihadists.
The statements have sparked a wave of anger across Africa.
Chad's president said Macron's comments were disrespectful to Africa. Deby accused Macron of being "stuck in the colonial era" and reiterated that France had until the end of January to withdraw its troops.
In his New Year's address to the nation, Mahamat Deby outlined the possible consequences of the withdrawal of French troops.
" I know that we will have to fight," he said. "I am fully aware of the security, economic, diplomatic and media implications of this historic decision. We do not rule out that our compatriots will, unfortunately, be used to destabilise our country. But, firmly convinced that this decision is a response to the common and legitimate aspirations of the people of Chad, I have accepted it and I take full responsibility for it."
Deby knew what he was warning citizens about. Already on the evening of January 8, his presidential palace was subjected to an intense attack by unknown persons, the circumstances of which still raise questions.
ISLAMIC FACTOR
It is technically unlikely that the French will be able to withdraw their troops in the two weeks remaining until the end of January. Chad has long served as the largest base for France's military presence in the Sahel region and throughout Central Africa.
According to rumors, Mahmat Deby was even ready to "concede" to the French and give them another month to pack up, but on the condition that they would definitely leave the territory of sovereign Chad by February 28. On February 28, the holy month of Ramadan begins for Muslims in the country.
And the symbolism here has a double bottom. Until relatively recently, Chad was a predominantly Christian country. But the French placed their bets on the more passionate and, as it seemed to them, more obedient northern Muslim peoples - in defiance of the representative of the Christian south of the country, the first president of independent Chad, François Tombalbaye, who allowed himself a policy that was too independent from Paris.
And of course the Moslems are ever so much more romantic than everyday, boring, bourgeoise Christians of any skin tone. How were the French authorities to resist such a charming idea?
Already in 2014, the French tried to use semi-Islamist and semi-gangster formations to expel François Bozizé, who had been playing at independence, in the neighboring Central African Republic and unleashed a civil war there. They tried to use these same gangs repeatedly against the Wagner Group when they began to restore order in the CAR at the end of 2017.
And now the Islamic factor is turned against the French themselves.
Mahamat Deby is rumored to be an extremely vindictive person. His attitude toward former colonizers is due to the fact that it was Macron who questioned the legitimacy of his rise to power. One of his informal conditions for supporting Chad and the current government after the death of Idriss Deby was the renunciation of the presidential ambitions of Deby Jr.
However, this development of events called into question the future of the entire "Debi clan" and the dominant Zaghawa ethnic group.
The contender for power after the dictator's death was his beloved wife, the daughter of the Chadian ambassador to the United States, a representative of the Arab Tunjur tribe, Hinda Itno, who became a successful conductor of Washington's influence and, at the same time, an effective negotiator with international institutions in favor of her husband.
Under the threat of this internal coup, the entire numerous "Deby clan" united and nominated the most legitimate leader - Deby's eldest son Mahamat. He came to power largely unexpectedly for himself and on the wave of fateful events. The fact is that, legally, power in Chad after the death of the leader should have passed to the head of parliament, but not to the former commander of the main department of the security service of state institutions, a major general of the army and the son of the deceased president.
The political model of Chad is extremely fragile in its foundations. To understand: the East Saharan ethnic group Zaghawa, having a 1% share in the total population of the country, has concentrated 99% of power and resources in its hands. The ruling "Déby clan" belongs to it, all officers of the Chadian army and special services. A classic example of ethnocracy, formalized as a political dictatorship.
In essence, the political and power center in Chad has been constantly shifting vertically since its independence from the predominantly Christian and densely populated agricultural South to the sparsely populated Muslim pastoral North. This is the main geographic axis, the historical pattern and, frankly speaking, the tragedy of Chad's political system.
Given the limited resources (and Chad remains one of the poorest countries on the Black Continent), this state of affairs cannot but cause discontent. And there have always been those who take advantage of this discontent.
But the authorities are usually challenged by the same representatives of the more militant northern and northeastern nomadic peoples. For example, the most implacable opponent of Idriss Deby's rule, the rebel Front for Change and Accord (Front pour l'Alternance et la Concorde au Tchad, FACT), at whose hands Deby died three years ago, consists mainly of the Goran ethnic group. This Muslim ethnic group from the border with Libya has been the main competitor to the privileged position of the Zaghawa for many years.
That is why, despite the apparent stability of the regime, its durability is questionable. And young Deby, to his credit, is well aware of this. This explains his attempts to use the pan-African agenda and play on the patriotic feelings of young Chadians. This is how he finds additional support.
No matter how formal the recent presidential and parliamentary elections were for Chad, the current authorities are still trying to turn the prevailing mood in society to their advantage.
And they are, to put it mildly, anti-French. But it is not only President Deby who would like to take advantage of this.
THE FAILURE OF THE AMERICANS
The only serious political opponent of Mahamat Deby in the recent presidential elections was the leader of the political party "Transformers" Sukse Masra. And it is no coincidence that he focused on the socialist and pan-African agenda, appealing to the ideas of justice and patriotism.
Some even note the complete external and ideological similarity between Sukse Masra and the leader of the successful opposition party PASTEF in Senegal, Ousmane Sonko. At the same time, American money and technology stood behind both political projects.
The very fact of the return of oppositionist Masr to N'Djamena directly from New York and his subsequent appointment as Prime Minister of Chad in January of last year meant nothing less than certain behind-the-scenes agreements between the "Deby clan" and the Americans.
The Americans have been in Chad for a long time. At the same time, their interests here differ significantly from the French. The US quite openly supports the opposition here. During the presidential campaign itself, already in April-May of last year, Western English-language media did not hide their sympathies specifically for Masra "in defiance" of the French.
But the latter, apart from populism, did not have any decisive team, so his political ambitions failed. But the Americans' hope to realize their own influence at the expense of their yesterday's ally in Paris also failed.
It was the American military contingent that was the first to be expelled from Chad, back in April of last year. The fate of the American military in Chad was decided at the same time as the American military contingent in Niger (which literally replaced the "Africa Corps" of the Russian Defense Ministry).
The phenomenal nature of the situation is that, despite the apparent coordination of the actions of the authorities of Chad and Niger and the obvious benefit for Russia, the reasons and circumstances for the expulsion of the Americans are completely different. In the case of Niger, the Americans were counting on remaining in the region until the very end and were clearly implementing their own strategy, somewhere even pushing their "strategic partners", the French, in the back.
This had its risks and, judging by the fact that a year ago there was a significant correction of the American strategy of presence in the region (the bet on coastal locations), it can be assumed that the Americans allowed for the scenario of complete failure and calculated alternative options. And they were not at all embarrassed by either the material or strategic losses associated with leaving Niger.
In the case of Chad, the demands of local military authorities for the withdrawal of the task force of US military advisers and special forces (100 people in number) came as a complete surprise and a harsh reputational slap in the face for Washington.
At an informal level, this decision of the Chadian authorities was supported by the French side. It was a kind of retaliation for the unfriendly actions of American "allies" in a number of locations of traditional presence and influence of Paris.
But, like the Americans in Niger before them, the French are in for a nasty surprise after just over six months. They, too, are forced to abandon the military bases they have occupied since 1976.
The collapse of Françafrique and the withdrawal of French troops from Chad is an event that is not without approval from the Republicans of the Trump administration. This is another illustration of how complicated things are in the African direction in the relations between yesterday's allies.
And all of these are quite positive processes that Russia, among others, can take advantage of.
CHAD AND RUSSIA
The fact is clear, and few can argue with it now. N'Djamena is now moving from a policy of being a conductor of Paris' interests (the "French gendarme" in Africa) in the Sahel and Central Africa to an independent foreign policy.
The place left by France will not remain empty. And if the US could not fill it, then, by breaking relations with Paris, N'Djamena is simultaneously creating a new defense alliance with Ankara.
Turkey and Chad recently signed an agreement that provides for training of Chadian military personnel by Turkish instructors. In addition to the defense agreements, the Turkish armed forces will train the Chadian army. Turkey has been providing military assistance to Chad for several years, including modern training of military personnel and the supply of weapons. The cooperation is aimed at strengthening Chad's defense capabilities and its ability to fight terrorism.
Chad has been and remains an extremely important space for the implementation of geopolitical interests of a number of major powers, if only due to its geographical location.
Chad is a crossroads of multidirectional and complex interests: the Sahel, Central Africa, influence on North Africa (Libya), and North-East Africa (Sudan), etc., etc. Whoever controls Chad has influence over vast areas both in the interior of the African continent and on its outskirts.
Russia is an active player in this area.
Recently, the military authorities of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have turned away from the West in favor of Russian military support. The Central African Republic has been stabilized since 2017 with the help of Russian military instructors. Let us also note the Russian presence in Libya.
All these countries are neighbors of Chad. In this context, the mentioned visit of Deby to Moscow is not just a symbolic story, but also a geopolitical necessity.
It was one thing when Chad was behind the attempted rebellion of the “Coalition of Patriots for Change” in the pro-Russian Central African Republic in 2020. And it was quite another when in the summer of 2023 N’Djamena took a position of demonstrative neutrality against the backdrop of a pro-Russian military coup in neighboring Niger. Although Paris tried to persuade Chad to join ECOWAS in the blockade of Niamey and a military invasion to restore the status quo and free pro-French ex-President Mohamed Bazoum (the latter, by the way, is still in prison).
One cannot help but recall the words of the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov : "I can assure you that our friendship with the Republic of Chad will not affect its relations with France. We never ask anyone to choose their friends, but France has a different approach. In Paris's opinion, either you are with us or you are against us."
Chad was the last stop on the Russian Foreign Minister's African tour last June. But it was perhaps the most significant. During the visit, Lavrov prudently avoided making harsh anti-colonialist statements and focused on economic cooperation with the Central African Republic.
Chad has already significantly diversified its military cooperation over the past 5 years at least: along with France, N'Djamena also focused on the UAE, Turkey and Hungary. Now Russia can join this ranks on equal terms.
There are already obvious advantages for us at the level of foreign policy cooperation.
Immediately after Lavrov's June visit, the head of the Chadian Foreign Ministry made a statement that N'Djamena sees no point in a peace conference on Ukraine without Russia's participation. Now Chad is becoming a neutral and friendly party for the pro-Russian "Confederation of Sahel States." The long-standing tension on the border between Chad and the Central African Republic, when jidahids and armed opposition found refuge in their northern neighbor, is also completely removed.
Was Russia making a deliberate effort in this direction? No. It was simply geopolitical luck and, if you like, a historic chance for Russia to get even with the West.
The current situation, the current tectonic changes in the Sahel, are more a result of a series of accidents and changes within African communities themselves than the result of our own game.
The request for cooperation and an "open door" regime for Moscow comes from African countries - and for us this is somewhat unexpected. As it turns out, we are not particularly capable of the famous "security case", nor do we know how to back it up with anything.
We need to learn, and as quickly as possible. Because we have serious competitors.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] Archival documents about the Nazi executioner from Austria Martin Feuerbach, who took part in the executions of people during World War II, were declassified by the Public Relations Center (PRC) of the Federal Security Service (FSB) of Russia.
The materials indicate that the Soviet military counterintelligence service SMERSH searched for Nazi war criminals and their accomplices, including prisoners, during the Great Patriotic War. In March 1944, Staff Corporal Martin Feuerbach, who participated in executions in Austria, Poland, Yugoslavia and the USSR, was captured in Kerch.
During interrogations, he confessed that he personally hanged 120 people, beheaded 80, cut off the limbs of a dozen people, and nailed at least two people by the arms and legs. Before the executions, he was given extra cigarettes, and after the atrocities, he was given vodka, rum, and meat dishes.
According to the executioner, he had a pocket calendar at home, where he wrote down the number of people he executed. Feuerbach reread these records every evening, thanks to which he was able to remember most of the numbers.
Feuerbach was born in 1915 in Würzburg. He joined the Austrian National Socialist Party and was sentenced to seven years in prison for organizing an illegal Nazi meeting. After Austria was incorporated into Germany, he served in the National Socialist German Workers' Party (NSDAP). In the army, Feuerbach formed "mobile units" to fight partisans. In 1941 and 1943, he also participated in reprisals against Austrian anti-fascists.
As reported by the Regnum news agency, in August 2024, the German Defense Ministry added Wehrmacht officers who were members of the NSDAP and the paramilitary wing of the SS to the list dedicated to Germany's military tradition, confirmed the official representative of the department, Arne Kollatz. According to him, in Germany, along with the participants in the resistance to the Nazi regime, the memory of some members of the Wehrmacht who, after the fall of the Third Reich, helped create a new German army and openly distanced themselves from their past will be honored.
The world community must respond to the German Bundeswehr's inclusion of former Nazis in the list of those who should serve as an example of military superiority, urged Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.
President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that there is no sympathy for Nazis in Russia and there never will be. The newest Ukrainian neo-Nazis resemble their own ideological ancestors who collaborated with Hitler during the Great Patriotic War, the head of state noted.
Text taken from the Telegram Channel of ZalaAero
[ColonelCassad] To date, more than 2,800 episodes of the destruction of Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment by the Lancet have been openly published both on the line of combat contact and in the enemy's rear.
The main targets remain tanks, armored vehicles, towed and self-propelled artillery, air defense, communications equipment, electronic warfare stations, special equipment and even aircraft and watercraft of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
We present to your attention a selection of the 100 most striking moments of the use of the ZALA Lancet in 2024.
[FoxNews] A network of organizations in the ‘Woke Army’ of socialists and Islamists plan to protest Trump’s inauguration
This past July, as anti-Israel crowds took to the streets of Washington, D.C,, to protest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu address to Congress, Zaid Mohammed Mahdawi, 26, climbed atop a monument at Columbus Circle in front of Union Station and allegedly spray-painted an ominous message: 'HAMAS IS COMIN''. He punctuated the warning with the red, inverted triangle that the terrorist organization uses as a symbol to mark its targets.
Nearby, demonstrators pulled down and burned a U.S. flag to ashes, tackled U.S. Park Police officers trying to arrest agitators and spray-painted other menacing graffiti, including ‘DEATH 2 AMRIKKKA,’ on memorials.
At 3:26 p.m., the U.S. Park Police pulled the protest permit, which had been issued to the ANSWER Coalition, a Washington-based, self-declared socialist organization. Later, the FBI charged Mahdawi and other protesters with destruction of government property.
"The permit holder failed to answer his phone and the call went directly to voicemail," an FBI agent wrote in a fascinating affidavit that revealed that someone at a gym Mahdawi used sent the FBI a tip on his identity.
Nearly six months later, the ANSWER Coalition is poised to get a new permit to host another protest on Monday, according to a copy of the application I obtained from the National Park Service. The event name: "For Peace & Justice - Free Palestine." The target is obviously the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.
Past behavior indicates the protests will bring mayhem to the capital's streets. Yet, National Park Service spokesman Michael Litterst told me that current legal precedent makes it difficult to deny permits based on prior incidents.
Critics, like leaders of the Clarity Coalition, a network of Muslims, ex-Muslims and allies who oppose extremism, say it’s long past time to deny the permits. At a minimum, the public must have its eyes wide open about who is behind these protests.
As the protests unfold, media coverage will likely frame them as ‘organic,’ ‘grassroots’ activities. But make no mistake: These events will be part of a larger, well-funded operation. The demonstrators are aligned with adversaries to the U.S., including Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and Hamas, and are united in an unholy alliance that blends socialism with Islamism, or political Islam.
This coalition, which I call the "Woke Army," operates as a red-green alliance, the red symbolizing socialism and communism and the green representing Islam. These are the same groups that stoked the encampments of the so-called campus intifada around the country last year. Their ultimate goal is to dismantle American democracy and replace it with a socialist, anti-capitalist order. The first way to counter this threat is through transparency, vigilance and a commitment to truth.
The application lists the same "Person in Charge of Event," as it did in July: Brian Becker, the self-proclaimed Marxist founder of the ANSWER Coalition.
Protest organizers say they have at least 50 "endorsing" groups, and their motives are far from grassroots. I’ve created a public database as part of my work at the Pearl Project, a nonprofit journalism initiative, and, according to my analysis, 25 of the groups are self-described socialist organizations, five are Muslim, Arab or Palestinian, and the final 20 are "socialist adjacent."
The "red" in this alliance includes:
ANSWER Coalition: A Marxist-Leninist group infamous for organizing protests that amplify anti-American and anti-Israel rhetoric.
Code Pink: An anti-Israel group funded by Neville Roy Singham, a Shanghai-based American billionaire tied to China’s Communist Party, according to New York Times reporting.
Party for Socialism and Liberation: Advocates for dismantling capitalism and aligning the U.S. with socialist regimes.
The People’s Forum: A socialist group that serves as a proxy for Singham’s pro-China agenda, as also documented by the New York Times.
Democratic Socialists of America: The largest socialist organization in the U.S. and a big supporter of anti-Israel campaigns.
The "green" of this axis includes:
Students for Justice in Palestine: Founded by University of California at Berkeley academic Hatem Bazian, this controversial group has fomented many of the anti-Jew campus protests, banned now on many campuses.
Palestinian Feminist Collective: Committed to "Palestinian liberation & beyond."
Palestinian Youth Movement: Dedicated to a "strategy of mobilization, agitation and confrontation."
U.S. Palestinian Community Network: Organized days of protests in Chicago to disrupt the Democratic Party’s convention.
Muslim American Society: Created a "Survive Pack," with tips on building campus "Liberation Zones" and a resource from the Council on American-Islamic Relations, whose co-founder, Nihad Awad, said he was "happy" about the Oct. 7 incursions by Hamas into Israel.
In July, I went to the corner of C Street NW to report who had rented buses to ferry protesters to the first "HAMAS IS COMIN’" protest. It was the Party for Socialism and Liberation. This time, if you go to the "We Fight Back" website’s donation page, you’ll see who is getting the donations for the Jan. 20 protests. It’s The People’s Forum, whose logo and tax ID number appear on the donate page.
On Nov. 5, four days after Trump’s electoral victory, an anonymous person bought the website domain wefightback2025.org. Now the protest’s digital hub, it features an embedded Google Map geo-locating 80 planned "actions" across the country.
It even includes a "J20 media kit" with pre-designed Instagram graphics, a Canva template and printable protest posters emblazoned with slogans like "Stop the Genocide in Palestine" and "Defeat Extreme-Right Trump’s Billionaire Agenda!"
The kit even provides social media captions, complete with a megaphone emoji. They have their right to protest, but the world must have eyes wide open about who is behind the megaphones.
#12
So much more difficult for potential assassins…
A hard to secure weather alternative.
Anybody see the Senate chamber video?
Place is wide open if you have a secure pass.
Ah'm gonna assume the HVAC is already monitored for radiologicals and bios, sarin.
Won't work for binary toxins mixed on the spot.
Common exit is a good point for aerosol dispersal, outside the sensors.
Like spraying a herd for ticks.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Kirill Semenov
[REGNUM] Israel and the Palestinian movement Hamas agreed on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on January 15. The agreement could end a devastating 15-month Israeli offensive in the enclave that has killed nearly 50,000 Palestinians. But there are many obstacles to not only implementing the agreement, but even getting it off the ground.
Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman bin Jassim al-Thani announced the deal on Wednesday, January 15, at a press conference in Doha, saying the ceasefire would begin on January 19. The Qataris, along with the Egyptians, helped Hamas reach an agreement with Israel, while the new US administration led by President-elect Donald Trump tried to pressure the Israelis.
"PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH"
Now everything depends on whether Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet ratifies the deal.
Trump has already been quick to praise the agreement, calling it “epic,” and stressing that it would not have happened without his return to the White House. That statement raises hopes that the two sides can move forward with at least the first phase of a deal.
It is the disputes within the Israeli government that are causing concern. Netanyahu's rejection of the deal would be perceived by Trump as an attempt to steal his administration's first victory and cause reputational damage.
“This monumental ceasefire agreement could only have been achieved as a result of our historic victory in November, as it showed the world that my administration will pursue peace and negotiate to ensure the safety of all Americans and our allies,” Trump wrote on the TruthSocial platform.
Trump singled out the efforts of his national security team's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, to broker a deal, and also emphasized the allied nature of relations with Israel and the desire to "never again make Gaza a safe haven for terrorists."
“We will continue to advance the idea of peace through strength throughout the region,” Trump concluded.
THREE STEPS TO PEACE
In the first phase of the deal, which will last 42 days, Hamas must release 33 prisoners: minors, women (both civilians and soldiers) and civilian men over 50.
In exchange, Israel will release 30 Palestinian prisoners for every civilian hostage and 50 for every female soldier.
Israeli forces will withdraw from densely populated areas to the outskirts of the Gaza Strip, additional UN aid will be sent to the enclave, and displaced Palestinians will begin to return home.
On the 16th day, negotiations are expected to begin on the implementation of the second stage, which is also planned to last 42 days and will include a declaration of “sustainable calm.”
At this stage, Hamas is to release the remaining male captives (soldiers and civilians) in exchange for an as yet unagreed number of Palestinian prisoners and the beginning of a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, which is to be completed by the end of the second stage.
In the third stage, the bodies of the dead Israeli hostages will be exchanged for the bodies of the dead Hamas members. The reconstruction plan for Gaza will be implemented, and the border crossings for entry and exit from the Strip will be opened.
The draft ceasefire agreement also provides for negotiations on a post-conflict governance and reconstruction structure for Gaza, but since there is no consensus on these issues, the possibility of a prolonged military occupation of the territory by Israel remains, up to and including a resumption of hostilities in the near future.
In addition, the deal does not include political negotiations to resolve the core conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.
As Igor Subbotin, an international observer and expert on the Middle East, told Regnum, the agreed deal between Israel and Hamas partially eliminates the hostage problem, which formally underlay the military operation in Gaza that lasted more than a year, but does not stop the full-scale conflict itself and the underlying causes that lie at its origins.
According to him, Israel agreed to limit the operational activity of its troops in Gaza, but pushed Hamas to agree to something that had long been controversial: the establishment of buffer zones and the maintenance of a contingent on the isthmus between Gaza and Egypt.
This is not about withdrawing troops from the enclave, but rather a trigger for the armed wing of Hamas to begin regrouping and rebuilding its forces instead of demobilizing.
In turn, as Subbotin notes, Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 can only electrify the atmosphere around Gaza. Those close to the Republican say that he will seek "autonomy for the Palestinians" on the model of Puerto Rico, an unincorporated US territory in the Caribbean Sea.
An important aspect of this concept will be that it will be based on the principle of "peace for peace" rather than "land for peace," those close to the idea explain. And this is unlikely to be enthusiastically received by supporters of the "resistance."
Netanyahu himself had motives to make a deal, since it became obvious that the current stage of his military campaign in Gaza had reached a dead end. Therefore, he needs a pause at least to resolve the problem with some of the hostages, which would reduce the internal pressure on his cabinet to a certain extent and allow him, if necessary, to gather his strength and resume military operations.
It is clear that the Hamas movement has evolved from a centralized organization into an equally effective guerrilla movement that has been able to restructure itself and continue to inflict significant damage on Israel.
The Sheikh al-Qassam Brigades, the movement's military wing, after emptying its arsenals, launched a successful mine war against the IDF, mining roads where Israeli soldiers are blown up almost every day.
The number of Israelis killed in Gaza in recent months, starting in the fall, has been not fewer, but more than before. Israeli experts themselves write about this, also emphasizing that there have been no major military achievements in Gaza for six months now.
It is concluded that the deal could have been concluded back then - and all the heads of the special services and security agencies spoke about it. This would have saved the lives of soldiers and hostages.
However, this scenario misses an important detail.
It is quite possible that Netanyahu does not have the goal of bringing the agreement to a third or even a second stage and intends to resume hostilities.
And then the current deal is just a certain concession to the Americans, despite the fact that the US administration itself did not play any significant role in it. Despite Trump's loud statements, it was unable to force the Israeli leadership to make concessions, while Qatar, on the contrary, was able to put the necessary pressure on Hamas and force it to accept the deal.
ISRAEL DOES NOT RULE OUT CONTINUATION OF THE WAR
Netanyahu and his far-right government, from draft to draft of the agreement, included in each text the possibility of permanently occupying part of the Gaza Strip territory in the first two stages, so that they could return to military operations at any time.
This also applies to the latest, approved version. That is why some analysts have already called the approved agreement “staged.”
In particular, Professor Andreas Krieg from King's College London and journalist for the Israeli publication Haaretz Zvi Barel believe that the agreement itself is a diplomatic ploy: the Israeli government does not even intend to move on to the second stage and will seek to resume hostilities after the release of the first batch of prisoners.
But even in the second stage of the agreement, Netanyahu has every opportunity to continue the military campaign.
As experts familiar with the agreement, including Krieg, note, the IDF will not completely leave the sector, but will only limit its presence to forward operating bases. Relying on them, the Israelis can quickly resume military operations when they need to.
Only in the third stage, based on a political framework agreement on governance and reconstruction, will it be possible to talk about a complete withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza. However, this stage is unlikely to be achievable even in the medium term.
Other escalation scenarios cannot be ruled out.
Netanyahu could take advantage of the lull in fighting in Gaza to launch a full-scale military campaign in the West Bank, while increasing pressure on Washington to back military action against Iran's nuclear program.
HAMAS - A SUCCESS WITH CAVEATS
On the other hand, it is interesting to see how Hamas and the representatives of the “Axis of Resistance” are trying to present a very shaky deal without any guarantees for the Palestinian movement as their own success.
Radical Zionists such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich are in full agreement with them in their assessments. They speak of an agreement that could allow Netanyahu to save face in the current situation as a “capitulation.”
In particular, Smotrich, who heads the Religious Zionism party, called the deal a “disaster for national security” and said his party would not support it. The leader of another far-right party, Otzma Yehudit, Ben-Gvir, called on Smotrich to work together to block the agreement.
If the Religious Zionism party, which has 7 seats in the Israeli Knesset, and the Otzma Yehudit party, which has 6 seats, cooperate, they could gain a majority sufficient to overthrow Netanyahu's cabinet. The government needs at least 61 seats in the Knesset to retain power, and the current coalition has 68 mandates out of 120.
However, it is clear that for the far right, disagreement with the deal is simply populism, detachment from reality and a refusal to acknowledge the situation that has developed “on the ground.”
The very admission that Hamas still rules part of Gaza and is a party to the deal is unacceptable to radical Zionists who want Hamas to be completely destroyed and Israeli settlements to return to Gaza – with all Palestinians expelled from there.
The current agreement, although it leaves open the possibility of returning to this plan of the radicals, carries with it the threat of prolongation and may ultimately lead to the implementation of the peace plan embedded in it.
Based on this, Hamas also has certain motives to declare success, albeit with certain reservations.
It should be emphasized that after 15 months and 50,000 deaths of Palestinian civilians, Hamas is still capable of launching rockets and attacking the IDF rear, Israeli prisoners have not yet returned home, Israeli casualties in Gaza are not only not decreasing but are growing, and Israel is politically isolated.
This is how Israel's strategic failure looks against the backdrop of its tactical successes. Hamas certainly surprised many military experts and analysts, unlike Hezbollah, whose military capabilities were somewhat overestimated.
***
Thus, the current deal, despite all the risks of continued military action and the presence of introductory elements that are certainly advantageous for Israel, confirms that the IDF has not been able to achieve a convincing victory over Hamas, and even if the agreements are disrupted, it is unlikely to be able to change anything radically.
On the contrary, Hamas, having agreed to accept conditions that are at first glance unfavorable to itself, related to maintaining the Israeli presence in Gaza, is still recognized as an active player with whom it is necessary to reckon and negotiate. A player that retains the prospect of a political future.
And for the people of Gaza, any ceasefire and access to humanitarian aid is like a breath of fresh air.
#2
All the Palestinian strategy guys are taking a dirt nap. The rules of strategic success probably account for living in the set of a post-apocalyptic wasteland as well.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
01/17/2025 13:50 Comments ||
Top||
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
[REGNUM] One of the main newsmakers of the beginning of 2025 in Africa has become the Republic of
