[Daily Mail, where America gets its news] The babyface California man accused of helping a Wisconsin teenager plan a school shooting that took the lives of a student and a teacher has broken his silence.
Helping or grooming?
Alexander Paffendorf appeared by video in a collared shirt and tie in court on Friday to face the consequences of his actions, without detailing his role in the Abundant Life Christian School shooting on December 16.
He said he was ready for a hearing on whether a restraining order confiscating his guns and ammunition should remain in place, and expressed remorse for his actions.
Sorry he did it or sorry he got caught despite his care to avoid social media and even being photographed?
Police have said Paffendorf admitted to federal agents that he had been messaging school shooter 15-year-old Natalie Rupnow about attacking a government building with a gun and explosives while she carried out the attack at the small Christian school.
It has been suggested that both Mr. Paffendorf and Ms Rupnow are Columbiners, inspired by the 1999 school massacre at Columbine High School in Colorado by two trench-coated social outcasts — she committed her crime wearing the same band t-shirt as one of the Columbine killers. Among others who claimed to want to copy the attack were Virginia Tech shooter Seung-Hui Cho, Sandy Hook gunman Adam Lanza, and Parkland shooter Nikolas Cruz.
Shortly afterwards, neighbors told CBS 8 they saw more than a dozen police cars enter the apartment complex where Paffendorf lives on Tuesday night and saw officers coming out of the building carrying what was described as a 'black gun box.'
Paffendorf has not been charged with any wrongdoing, but an attorney for the city of Carlsbad told Judge Devon Lomayesva that he was under criminal investigation.
A detective also told the judge the FBI is expected to conclude its investigation within two to three months - prompting Lomayesva to delay consideration on the restraining order. He explained that it was in Paffendorf's best interest to delay the hearing, as he is under criminal investigation but did not have an attorney present.
The ruling keeps the order to confiscate Paffendorf's weapons in effect through April 4, as police continue their investigation into the school shooting and Paffendorf's role.
Authorities have previously said Rupnow entered Abundant Life Christian School with two handguns - but only used one to carry out the attack, which took the lives of 14-year-old student Rubi Patricia Vergara and 42-year-old teacher Erin Michelle West.
Police then received a call at 10.57am, and officers arrived just seconds later.
By 11.05, officers found Rupnow wounded as they recovered her weapon.
She was later pronounced dead on the way to the hospital as fire department workers cared for at least six other victims, whose injuries ranged from minor to life-threatening.
A motive for the shooting still remains unclear, with police saying they do not know whether anyone was specifically targeted in the attack as some have suggested.
Unlike so many lately, she apparently was not trans, but clearly was mentally unbalanced over something that drove her to kill at the Christian high school.
Police, along with the FBI, are now scouring online records and other resources, as well as speaking with the shooter's parents and classmates in an attempt to determine a motive for the shooting.
Authorities were also seen raiding the Rupnows' Wisconsin home following the tragedy.
Investigators are trying to determine whether Rupnow's parents, Jeff and Melissa, had any involvement or contributed to Natalie's actions. Online court records show no criminal cases against her father, Jeffrey Rupnow, or her mother, Mellissa Rupnow. They are divorced and shared custody of their daughter, but she primarily lived with her father, according to court documents. Divorce records indicate that Rupnow was in therapy in 2022, but don't say why.
[FoxNews] 3 Louisiana residents were murdered in a homeless camp in 2024, when the US saw 18.1% increase in homelessness
A triple homicide at a Louisiana homeless camp, allegedly spurred by a stolen bicycle, emphasizes the inherent dangers of these encampments – not just for their inhabitants, but for those in surrounding communities, an expert told Fox News Digital. EVERY homeless camp has multiple stolen bikes. It's only a problem when they steal from each other?
On April 3, 44-year-old Mindy Ann Robert, 33-year-old Marcey Vincent and 53-year-old Warren Fairley were found dead, all shot multiple times, in a makeshift campsite, hidden from view by brush on a vacant lot in Jefferson Parish, the Jefferson Parish Sheriff's Office said.
Crime in these camps is a growing concern across the country, which has seen an 18.1% increase in homelessness in 2024, according to a December report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Federal officials cited a rising number of asylum seekers, lack of affordable housing and natural disasters as reasons for the increase in homelessness.
"These homeless encampments pose a health threat and a safety threat to the general public," Mark Powell, a former reserve police officer in San Diego who oversaw the city's Monarch School for Homeless Youth while on the city's school board, told Fox News Digital. "It's the duty, it's the obligation of our city leaders, our elected politicians, to do everything they can within the law to eradicate these camps and provide the people living in the camps with the dignity they deserve through some type of shelter program."
In the Louisiana case, Noel Marine, who was known to visit the victims at the campsite, was arrested and faces three counts of first-degree murder and obstruction of justice in their deaths. He is currently being held on $100,000 bail, according to court records.
Investigators believe Vincent and Robert were homeless and lived at the campsite, while Fairley lived in a home nearby. Robert's family assumed that she was living in the area because they recently saw her panhandling at a nearby street corner, NOLA.com reported.
"Periodically, other people would stay [at the campsite] and use narcotics," Det. Ryan Vaught testified during a Nov. 19 hearing in Jefferson Parish Magistrate Court.
A man who was dating one of the female victims allegedly dialed 911 around 9:40 a.m. when he found the three bodies.
Marine, 55, became the prime suspect after his fingerprint was also found on a metal folding chair at the site. His fingerprints were in the national Combined DNA Index System due to previous convictions, including four counts of possession of cocaine with the intent to distribute and other drug charges.
He was sentenced to 15 years in prison after pleading guilty in April 2005, court records show. At the time of the shooting, he was wanted for missing court in a misdemeanor theft case after allegedly stealing from a Walmart in February of this year, according to court records.
Marine allegedly claimed that he was staying at a friend's house in Metairie at the time of the shooting, but his alibi was torn open after the friend told detectives that Marine was not there.
Although a gunshot was heard in the area around 1 or 2 a.m., according to Vaught, no one saw the killings take place. However, Marine's friend gave a statement to police after he allegedly confessed to the killings, Vaught testified.
After he was brought in for a second round of questioning, Marine claimed that another man shot the three victims. He said that he was talking to the man who confronted him at the encampment after Marine stole his bicycle. The other man brandished a gun, and Marine walked into the campsite to retrieve the stolen property, according to Marine, who said he then heard gunfire.
However, police have not named the man Marine accused, and no one else has been arrested in the homicides.
Powell said that the incident is the latest example of why the government has an obligation to regulate homeless encampments.
"In this instance, three people were murdered. That's not to say somebody jogging through the park or jogging near the homeless encampment could also become a victim just as easily as this," Powell told Fox News Digital.
"It's the duty of the city. If they're going to allow homeless camps like this, it's their duty to make sure that they're cleaned, that they're regulated, that there's some type of law enforcement presence that frequents that homeless camp on a regular basis," Powell said.
"Not once a month or when they get a call, but they have to have some type of security in there," he continued. "[Otherwise] you're going to end up with more of these incidences where there are rapes, murders, there's assault, there are batteries, there's a theft, there's rampant drug dealing – this is what you'll find in these homeless encampments."
"Many people don't even want to jog through the park because they know there's a homeless encampment in there, and they're scared – the people who are committing the crimes are the ones who are controlling the property," Powell said. "They're not paying taxes, they're not doing anything yet. [But] the people who do pay the taxes who do not commit crimes, they're the ones who are impacted."
#2
The Augusta, GA. since around the April 2024, has been having a number of Homeless murders, assaults, disappearances, and a few reported "Accidental deaths".
A few of us come in contact with a handful on a regular basis. While we are passing out food, bottled water, warm coats, cloths and donated used sleeping bags to the "really homeless" here on the overlooked South-Side.
Because we have a large VA here, we see a lot of homeless US VET's. And yes, even a few Vet widows living on the streets.
While we are handing things out, we are hearing from them, that police aren't looking too hard into the deaths, assaults and accidents. Many have taken to sleeping during the morning hours, and staying up at night for safety reasons.
May be things will change as Augusta/Richmond Co. just got a new Sheriff.
#3
A high percentage of mental illness and substance abuse in a community of folks living close together in shared poverty will always percolate with violence and theft. Three dead of gunshots seems strange unless they were all inebriated. Homeless folks usually sleep light and know when to book it. Marksmanship among tweakers is also not generally good.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
01/07/2025 13:55 Comments ||
Top||
[FoxNews] A passel of feral hogs has been terrorizing the city of Irving, Texas, frustrating residents as their properties are destroyed by the invasive animals.
As many as 10 hogs have been tearing up yards and rooting through trash left for garbage collectors, according to WFAA.
Locals have become frustrated after they repair their yards dug up by the hogs, just for the animals to return to wreak havoc again.
"A couple of weeks back, I started seeing some diggings on the ground," homeowner Eric Mendez told WFAA, noting that he set up a camera on a tree to capture the culprit.
"To my surprise, a pig was on the camera," he said.
But there was more than one pig digging up the property. There were as many as 10, and some were quite large.
Others have reported destruction by the pigs as well, including Mendez's neighbor, whose landscape had been dug up, and Barbara Bush Middle School.
Garbage has also been scattered across several properties.
The City of Irving said it is aware of the issue and has hired a wildlife contractor to address the situation. Officials said they believe the hogs are coming from a wooded area near Grapevine Creek.
Feral hogs cause an estimated $400 million in damage per year in Texas, according to the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, while national costs are estimated at about $1.5 billion annually.
Farmers and ranchers who often experience much of the pigs' destruction can hunt or hire someone to hunt the animals without a license on private land, with no limits to how many can be killed. But a standard hunting license is needed to hunt them on public land, WFAA reported.
Homeowners in Irving initially came up with the idea of shooting and killing the pigs, but then realized they should not be firing a gun at the animals in a suburban
neighborhood.
The hogs are known to attack pets and humans if they feel threatened. They also reproduce at a rapid rate, as a single sow can birth up to two litters of six to eight piglets each year.
#1
Ga has its own share of large, Fat, Ferals around here. According to GA DNR we have around 400K in the state.
Most GA Ferals around here run about 120 to 150 LBS.
Unless they have crossbred with larger farm stock. Then we get things like Georgia’s Famous “Hogzilla” that 800 pounder.
BTW: I have seen a 300+/- pounder hit with 357 Mag 158 grains HP rounds and still charging the shooter. Head shot is best Dead Shot
#5
Ga has its own share of large, Fat, Ferals around here.
I hear the wild hogs are a problem too.
Speaking as your Ecosystems Advisor, the solution to any invasive species problem is the same: somebody has to eat them.
Luckily in this case, the invaders are quite tasty
#8
I had a co-worker tell me he once pulled his semi-automatic from its holster to fire and somehow hit the mag release--he had to scramble atop a cage to get out of harm's way.
#10
Up in the Smokies it is not unusual to come across broad areas where it looks like it has been freshly plowed. It is the work of feral hogs rooting around.
#13
"In a world of autonomous Robbies
Where humans pursue only hobbies,
A few find a Seussful
New way to be useful!"
[cue million pigsticking Punjabis...
in AI Fleischer toon based on AI Mulberry Street plate]
[FoxNews] Dire warnings have been issued for the Los Angeles area after forecasters say there is the potential for the strongest wind event in more than a decade.
A "life-threatening, destructive, widespread windstorm" is expected Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, Los Angeles forecasters at the National Weather Service said.
Damaging winds are expected across most of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, leading to widespread power outages.
"Strong winds are coming," the NWS said. "This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation – in other words, this is about as bad as it gets in terms of fire weather. Stay aware of your surroundings. Be ready to evacuate, especially if in a high fire risk area. Be careful with fire sources."
The strongest winds will blow through Southern California from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon, with gusts peaking near 80 mph. Isolated areas in the mountains and foothills will see gusts of 80-100 mph.
Flights going in and out of Los Angles International Airport can expect delays as forecasters warn of "quite dangerous" mountain waves for pilots. Airlines and pilots are being urged not to fly near terrain during the windstorm.
The widespread damaging winds and low humidity are also leading to extreme fire concerns across most of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
Best thing California can do, as we learned from our 2017 Starbuck Fire Kansas Fire is ease reinforcements/relief road transportation restrictions. Road crews pushing abandoned vehicles off the road is correct.
What is weird to me, is that my emergency action feeds don't seem to be sending updates since around noon CST. This tells me, looking at you Good Samaritans, don't load up your truck and head to the front - there is no front. If anything move towards a forward base like in Battle L.A. movie fallback position.
[IsraeliTimes] Venezuela
...a country in Central America that sits on an enormous pool of oil. Formerly the most prospereous country in the region, it became infested with Commies sniffing almost unlimited wealth. It turned out the wealth wasn't unlimited, the economy collapsed under the clownish Hugo Chavez, the murder rate exceeded places like Honduras and El Salvador. A significant proportion of the populace refugeed to Colombia and points south... n Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello says that 125 foreign citizens have been arrested, including one Israeli and at least one Argentinian, on suspicion of serving as mercenaries for the US with the aim of causing a coup in the country, according to local news agency Agencia AJN.
An interesting concept.
The Venezuelan minister is quoted as saying, "We will guarantee peace. Rest assured that this will be the case; we are committed to peace. And a healthy recommendation to those who think they can: They will crash very badly. We will be implacable in this matter. We will be very forceful and extremely severe."
Then-Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez broke off ties with Israel in 2009 after Operation Cast Lead in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response... . Chavez and his successor, Nicolás Maduro ...Commie el presidente para toda la vida of Venezuela, successor to Hugo Chavez. Nick is his country's attempt at producing a Muammar Qadaffy, except that even though his country's sitting on an enormous puddle of oil, he can't manage to get it out of the ground. Unlike Qadaffy and Hugo Chavez, he's not dead yet... , have both been strident critics of Israel, and some Jewish community leaders have expressed fears of the government stoking anti-Semitism.
[WSJ via MSN] "Fact-checking" was always dubious lefty tactics
Meta Platforms is ending fact-checking and removing restrictions on speech across Facebook and Instagram, a move Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said was an attempt to restore free expression on its platforms.
“We’re going to get back to our roots and focus on reducing mistakes, simplifying our policies and restoring free expression on our platforms,” Zuckerberg said in a video Tuesday. “More specifically, we’re going to get rid of fact-checkers and replace them with Community Notes similar to X, starting in the U.S.”
The pivot comes as Zuckerberg has looked to build ties with the incoming Trump administration. The day before Thanksgiving, the billionaire CEO dined with the president-elect on a patio at Trump’s private Mar-a-Lago club. Meta has since donated $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund.
So much winning.
Last week the company installed a former aide to President George W. Bush, Joel Kaplan, as global policy chief executive, further boosting its Republican ties. Kaplan has been with Meta since 2011 and served as its conduit to Republicans in Washington and the broader conservative ecosystem.
How much staff will the company lose, between laying off the fact checking division and lefties leaving in disgust that their beloved company sold out to Nazi OrangeManBad?
The company on Monday said UFC President Dana White, a staunch supporter and ally of Trump, would be among three new members of its board of directors.
Other companies and tech leaders have been cozying up to the incoming administration. Amazon.com and Uber Technologies as well as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have announced similar donations to the president-elect’s inaugural fund.
Sooooooooooo much winning!
Speaking about Meta’s attempts to weed out damaging or dangerous content that violates its policies and puts users at risk, Zuckerberg said it had gone too far.
“We’ve reached a point where it’s just too many mistakes and too much censorship,” he said. “The recent elections also feel like a cultural tipping point towards once again prioritizing speech.”
Zuckerberg directly referenced Trump several times in the video, criticizing the legacy media for their coverage of his first term in office. He also said that fact-checkers had become “too politically biased.”
The company also announced it would be relocating what it calls the “trust and safety teams” responsible for writing policy and reviewing content from California to Texas and other U.S. locations.
*Snicker* Those poor darlings.
Posted by: Frank G ||
01/07/2025 10:36 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[11131 views]
Top|| File under:
#5
Remember when Musk canned all the government folks in Twitter HQ? I guess those folks will just hang out and organize the March Madness pool at META.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
01/07/2025 13:37 Comments ||
Top||
#6
Evil just going into hibernation until Trump leaves.
Mighty Morphin' Corporate Bankers
Watch their hands, mind your wallets, and there is no valet parking.
#7
The "Community Notes" concept seems to be a really good idea. The solution to having bad content is outsourced to crowdsourcing. Of course a few people have to manage it and some bad content is going to escape notice but I'll bet the company really saves money on this.
Posted by: Lord Garth ||
01/07/2025 21:00 Comments ||
Top||
#8
Fine.
Release the California Fire Update Blackout.
[NationalReview] New York City's controversial congestion toll came into effect Sunday at midnight, taxing Midtown Manhattan drivers as much as $9 to make their way around the busiest part of the city.
The congestion pricing system will charge drivers entering Manhattan below 60th street $9 during the peak hours of 5 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekdays and 9 a.m. to 9 p.m on weekends, according to New York's Metropolitan Transit Authority. The toll price is being phased in gradually with $3 increases planned for 2028 and 2031 as drivers adjust to the program. "Non-peak" is apparently 2:15AM - 3:06AM
Taxi cabs and other ride share drivers will pay a lower amount, $0.75 per trip, and high-volume for-hire vehicles will be charged $1.50 per ride. Small trucks and buses will be charged $14.40 during the peak hours and $3.60 overnight, and tour buses will have to pay a $21.60 congestion toll throughout the peak period and $5.40 overnight.
The MTA projects that the congestion tax will raise $15 billion of revenue for various projects while lowering traffic by 80,000 vehicles daily, reducing carbon emissions and improving air quality. Opponents of the plan expect the congestion tax to hurt ordinary residents’ pocketbooks by thousands of dollars annually, penalizing them simply for driving to work.
#2
^
yes, the revenue is an important factor behind congestion pricing especially given how much new infrastructure costs in NYCity (the 2nd Ave subway line in NYC will cost over $17B when completed)
another factor is that a lot of the people living in Manhattan just feel superior and enjoy costs being laid on NJ citizens
Posted by: Lord Garth ||
01/07/2025 9:47 Comments ||
Top||
#3
Its always fun to play games with other people's money.
[Daily Mail, where America gets its news] Airports across Germany have been hit by a IT outage that has sparked huge delays for arrivals outside of the Schengen zone.
The outage has affected federal police systems used to check incoming passengers, Bild newspaper reported on Friday, citing the police.
'Our colleagues have to do a lot of things manually that the system used to do.
'We're still managing to get it done at the moment,' said a police spokesperson responsible for Frankfurt airport, Germany's busiest.
Federal police were not immediately available for comment and the cause of disruption is not yet known.
The report claimed police are carrying out security checks manually, increasing waiting times at the Frankfurt and Dusseldorf airports.
The German WDR broadcaster said Dusseldorf Airport passengers have been forced to wait for at least two hours at immigration while others were being kept on the plane.
'At present, entry and exit are only possible with long delays for non-Schengen region,' said a Dusseldorf Airport spokesperson.
According to the airport, both the main system and the backup systems have been affected and it is not known how long it will take to fix.
It is currently not possible to enter Germany from outside the Schengen area, the airport told the broadcaster.
EU destinations and destinations in the Schengen area are not affected.
[Daily Mail, where America gets its news] Donald Trump took credit for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigning on Monday.
The U.S. president-elect suggested that Trudeau stepped aside because he knows Canada cannot be successful without help from the U.S.
'The United States can no longer suffer the massive Trade Deficits and Subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat. Justin Trudeau knew this, and resigned,' he wrote on Truth Social just hours after Trudeau's remarks.
It appears Trump is getting more serious about wanting to make Canada the 51st U.S. state and is feeling emboldened by Trudeau's resignation.
The PM dramatically resigned in remarks capping a spectacular fall from grace on the same day the U.S. Congress certified the 2024 presidential election results for a Trump victory.
What started as a joke during a meeting with Trudeau at the end of last year is now becoming a full-fledged and apparently serious proposal by Trump for the U.S. to envelop the neighbors to the north.
'Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State,' he said of the idea.
#3
Canada's GDP 15 years ago was ranked 6th among the US states. They would have made an OK state then. Now they are 47th behind Mississippi. Canada was destroyed by the libtards that are running it.
Posted by: 49 Pan ||
01/07/2025 21:36 Comments ||
Top||
[BrenarNews] Ethnic rebel groups in Shan and Rakhine states dealt the military its biggest blows this year.
Myanmar’s junta forces now control less than half the country after suffering major battlefield setbacks in 2024 — including the loss of command headquarters in Shan and Rakhine states, several rebel groups said.
In June, the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armies resumed offensive operations in Shan state. Within weeks, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army had captured Lashio, a city of 130,000 that is the region’s commercial and administrative hub and a gateway to China.
Another member of the alliance, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, also seized the strategic Shan state townships of Nawnghkio and Kyaukme, as well as the gem mining town of Mogoke in the neighboring Mandalay region.
Those victories in July and August left the junta with almost no territory in Shan state, a key area for border trade with China.
"The junta’s administration has completely ended here," said a resident of Kutkai, a town in northern Shan state that has been the focus of junta Arclight airstrike ...KABOOM!... s in recent months.
"At present, the economy and education sectors cannot function," the resident told Radio Free Asia. "And the cost of living has skyrocketed."
RFA couldn’t independently confirm the exact area lost by the military regime as the situation on the ground remains fluid and hard to verify given the constant fighting.
Junta spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Htun didn’t immediately respond to RFA’s attempt for comment on Monday.
ELECTION PLANS FOR 2025
The setbacks came as the junta regime moved forward with plans to hold an election in 2025, four years after they seized power in a Feb. 1, 2021, coup d’état.
But opponents say the election would be a farce and simply a way of legitimizing their rule.
For starters, the vote would be held in just 161 townships controlled by junta authorities out of 330 nationwide, Election Commission Chairman Ko Ko told political party representatives earlier this month.
[BenarNews] The waterway is expected to stay turbulent through the new year; we explore possible flashpoints.
The South China Sea has become one of the world’s most perilous geopolitical hot spots in recent years, with China stepping up the reinforcement of its expansive claims and countries from outside the region getting increasingly involved.
Here are four areas to watch in 2025:
TAIWAN STRAIT
The situation in the Taiwan Strait has been becoming notably more tense, with nearly 3,000 incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone between January and November 2024, as well as two major military exercises — Joint Sword A and B — coinciding with important political events on the self-ruled island.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping reiterated in his New Year message that the unification of Taiwan was "inevitable."
"China will continue to hold exercises in 2025 if senior Taiwanese officials visit the United States or top U.S. officials visit Taiwan," said Shen Ming-Shih, a research fellow at the top Taiwan government think-tank, the Institute for National Defense Security Research (INDSR).
Chinese military exercises such as joint fire strike, joint blockade, and joint anti-access and area denial will continue, but they will become less effective as Taiwan develops effective countermeasures, Shen said.
Another INDSR research fellow, Ou Si-Fu, director of the Division of Chinese Politics, Military and Warfighting Concepts, told Radio Free Asia that China was not ready for a full-on war with Taiwan.
"Xi is not confident with his army," Ou said, pointing to recent sackings in the top ranks of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
"The PLA has not fought a real war in a long time, so an imminent invasion of Taiwan is not expected," the analyst said. "They may be preparing their forces, but we are preparing, too."
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te said in his New Year message that his government would increase the defense budget and strengthen military capabilities.
SCARBOROUGH SHOAL
Latest developments at the chain of reefs in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone but under China’s de-facto control are worrisome. Just before the New Year, the PLA Southern Theater Command conducted large-scale combat readiness drills at the shoal that involved both naval and air force troops.
China’s coasties is maintaining a strong presence in the area, as is its maritime militia.
A month earlier, Beijing announced a set of baselines around the Scarborough Shoal to define its territorial waters and airspace — a step seen as illegal by many but used by China to justify its actions against the Philippines and its ally the United States.
The Chinese coastguard in early December fired a water cannon at a Philippine fisheries bureau boat taking supplies to fishermen in the shoal, saying it "dangerously approached" Beijing’s territorial waters.
"You cannot draw baselines if you don’t own the features," said former Philippine Supreme Court justice Antonio Carpio. He suggested that the Philippines should challenge China’s announcement at an international tribunal.
Scarborough Shoal is unoccupied and there are no structures on it but that may change in 2025, given Beijing’s assertiveness. Philippine forces have been removing Chinese floating barriers around the reefs but access by Filipino fishermen to their traditional fishing ground remains restricted.
The Philippines is believed to be considering a new legal case against China for its violations of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea but since Beijing refused to take part and rejected the ruling of the 2016 U.N. arbitral tribunal, there is little chance it will participate.
SECOND THOMAS SHOAL
Throughout 2024, China and the Philippines were engaged in stand-offs at the Second Thomas Shoal, also inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, where Manila deliberately grounded an old warship in 1999 to serve as an outpost.
In the last few years, China’s coasties has been blocking and disrupting Philippine resupply missions to the ship, the BRP Sierra Madre, and the troops stationed there.
On June 17, 2024, in an unprecedented confrontation, China coasties personnel, armed with pikes and machetes, punctured Philippine boats and seized firearms during a Philippine rotate and resupply mission, wounding a Filipino sailor.
Both sides later called for de-escalation. On Dec. 12, China said it had granted permission to the Philippines to resupply the "illegally grounded" warship on Second Thomas Shoal on a humanitarian basis.
But the June 17 incident showed that the situation could easily escalate into conflict, especially given the proximity of Second Thomas Shoal to a Chinese naval base on Mischief Reef, an artificial island that China built and has fully militarized.
Manila and Washington signed a Mutual Defense Treaty in 1951 under which both parties are obliged to support each other in the event of an armed attack. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in November revealed that the U.S. military had set up a Task Force Ayungin, the Filipino name for the Second Thomas Shoal.
Chief of the Philippine armed forces, Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr., told an RFA news hound in Manila that his country was pursuing a three-pronged strategy when it comes to maritime defense: to establish an effective presence; to create effective deterrence and modernize military equipment; and to leverage alliances and partnerships with like-minded nations.
Beijing, however, is not expected to give up its demand that Manila removes the BRP Sierra Madre and leave the disputed shoal.
For its part, the Philippines is determined to defend it.
"We’ll never abandon our territory at Ayungin," insisted Col. Xerxes Trinidad, the Philippine armed forces’ spokesperson.
VIETNAM’S ISLAND BUILDING
Vietnam’s island building in the South China Sea has reached a record, with the total area created in the first six months of 2024 equaling that of 2022 and 2023 combined, according to a study by the Washington-based Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI).
Between November 2023 and June 2024, Hanoi created 692 new acres (280 ha) of land across a total of 10 features in the Spratly archipelago. Vietnam’s overall dredging and landfill totaled about 2,360 acres (955 ha), roughly half of China’s 4,650 acres (1,881.7 ha).
"Three years from when it first began, Vietnam is still surprising observers with the ever-increasing scope of its dredging and landfill in the Spratly Islands," AMTI said.
Vietnam occupies 27 features and has been carrying out large-scale reclamation works on some over the past year.
A new 3,000-meter airstrip is nearly finished on Barque Canada reef, where the total landfill area more than doubled in one year to nearly 2.5 square kilometers, or 617.7 acres, by October 2024.
Vietnam has had only one airstrip on an island called Spratly, measuring 1,300 meters, but besides Barque Canada, AMTI said that "it would be unsurprising" if Hanoi also considers runways on Pearson and Ladd reefs.
New bases and runways "would give Vietnam a position on the other side of China’s ’Big Three’ islands," said Tom Shugart, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
He was referring to the China-developed Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief reefs, which are the largest artificial islands in the South China Sea. The next four largest are all newly expanded Vietnamese reefs.
"Its progress in the last five months suggests that Hanoi is determined to maximize the strategic potential of the features it occupies," said AMTI, adding that "it remains difficult to say when the expansion will end — and what new capabilities Vietnam will have once it has."
[BenarNews] The dream of returning home to Myanmar remains uncertain for hundreds of thousands of Rohingya who fled to Bangladesh despite rebel control of the border, members of the ethnic group said Friday.
About 800,000 Rohingya fled from western Myanmar’s Rakhine state following a bloody crackdown against members of their stateless Moslem minority group in August 2017.
They joined other Rohingya who had settled in camps in and around Cox’s Bazar, bringing the total number of refugees in southeastern Bangladesh at the time to over 1 million.
Years of negotiations to repatriate Rohingyas to Rakhine state have yielded little progress, in part because members of the community say their safety cannot be guaranteed back home after the military that targeted them seized power in a February 2021 coup d’etat.
On Dec. 8, rebels known as the Arakan Army (AA),
…the military wing of the United League of Arakan (ULA), the organized ethnic Theravada Buddhists of Rakhine state since 2009. The military government of Myanmar has of course designated them a terrorist organization…
which is battling the junta for self-determination in Rakhine state, captured Maungdaw township and took control of the region’s border with Bangladesh.
The takeover rekindled hope that the Rohingya might be offered safe transport across the border and feel comfortable enough with AA governance to resettle their communities in Rakhine.
On Wednesday, the AA — which controls about 80% of Rakhine state — announced that it would begin allowing people displaced by fighting to return home, after having fully secured the border.
However,
ars longa, vita brevis... Radio Free Asia Burmese, a news service affiliated with BenarNews, spoke with Rohingya in Bangladesh who said they remain uncertain about their return — in part because it’s unclear whether the AA might accommodate such a move and because ongoing fighting in Rakhine would leave them susceptible to military Arclight airstrike ...KABOOM!... s.
"It is a time of war, so it is impossible for us to return home," said Mohammed, a Rohingya from Kutupalong refugee camp in Bangladesh. "Even if the AA takes over the entirety Rakhine state, our repatriation program remains far off because they are not a legitimate government."
Rohingya who earlier fled violence and persecution in Myanmar said they had been kidnapped and forced to fight in the country’s ongoing civil war for the Arakan Army as well as the junta.
Nearly 65,000 Rohingya have crossed into southeastern Bangladesh since late 2023 amid unrest and violence in Rakhine, according to Bangladeshi officials.
Even if the refugees are allowed to return home, they remain fearful of junta airstrikes, said Europe-based Rohingya activist Nay San Lwin.
"The repatriation program is directly related to the AA because they currently control the area [where the Rohingya communities are]," he said. "Even if the AA gives firm guarantees, the Rohingya people might suffer great losses if the junta carry out airstrikes when they return home. Their repatriation is largely concerned with their security."
DEMANDS FOR RECOGNITION
Rohingya have also demanded recognition of their identity as an ethnic minority of Myanmar, acknowledgment of their Myanmar citizenship and the opportunity to return home "with dignity."
On Dec. 25, more than 100,000 Rohingya in the Cox’s Bazar refugee camps protested and called for assistance from the international community, including the United Nations ...boodling on the grand scale... , in meeting their demands ahead of a return to Myanmar.
"When people in the camps return home, they hope to go back to their original homes," said Mohammed of the Kutupalong refugee camp. "Moreover, we have also asked both Myanmar and international representatives to ensure our rights to freedom of movement, access to education, and all other basic rights. We will not change these demands."
The AA’s seizure of the border has, in some ways, complicated the issue even further.
On Dec. 22, during a meeting on the situation in Myanmar, held in Thailand last month, Bangladesh Foreign Ministry front man Mohammad Rafi Alam told news hounds that the Bangladesh government had urged Myanmar’s junta to "find a way" to settle the border dispute as it would "not engage" with the AA.
A week later, however, Bangladesh security analysts, former diplomats and scholars advised the Bangladesh government to engage with the AA directly and diplomatically. The status of the relationship remains uncertain.
A former district law officer who asked not to be named because of security concerns told RFA that the repatriation of the Rohingya will depend on the ruling administration in Rakhine state.
"Since there is currently no legal framework for the repatriation of the Rohingya, a bilateral agreement is essential for implementing this program," he said.
On Dec. 23, nearly 30 Rohingya organizations worldwide called on the AA to guarantee the rights and security of all communities in Rakhine state, including the Rohingya; establish an interim consultative committee; recognize the Rohingya as an ethnic minority of Myanmar; and adopt and enforce a public code of conduct for AA fighters.
Attempts by RFA to contact AA spokesperson Khaing Thukha for comment on the Rohingya return went unanswered by the time of publishing.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
[WSJ via MSN]
...
...
