Direct TRanslation via Google Translate. Edited. by Egor Aladin
[REGNUM] The last few days have been extremely nervous for the ruble exchange rate: yesterday it fell from 105 to 108 rubles per dollar, today it is weakening again. But the panic after yesterday's decision by the Central Bank to stop buying currency has been stopped. What do the Central Bank's actions mean, how will they affect exchange rates, and what dollars should you look for in exchange offices?
There are several fundamental reasons for the weakening of the ruble. Since Donald Trump's victory, the dollar has been strengthening against major world currencies. According to the International Monetary Fund, it accounts for 80% of trade transactions.
So just about the entire world believes President Trump will be better for the economy, despite how much most of them claim to loathe him? Fascinating.
In addition, over the last thirty years in Russia, the dollar has always strengthened by the New Year - companies close deals and master budgets. The population prepares for trips abroad and buys currency, the market responds to increased demand by increasing the price, that is, the exchange rate.
A legitimate point. Stock prices drop after stock dividend payouts, though.
But the main reason for the weakening of the ruble, which we are seeing in real time, is the latest geopolitical events and sanctions, which have now affected about 95% of the entire Russian banking system. Now including Gazprombank, the main clearing bank for international commodity transactions.
Panic, which traditionally overtakes Russians during sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate, added two or three rubles to the exchange rate. As economists say, objectively, the dollar in the current conditions cannot cost more than 110 rubles, that is, forecasts of 120-150 rubles are devoid of economic basis. Unless, of course, geopolitical tensions enter a new round.
WHAT EXACTLY IS THE CENTRAL BANK DOING?
During a period of panic, communications with the population must be simple and clear. Unfortunately, the Central Bank issued a release yesterday with a clear delay, and it turned out to be so jaw-dropping that it needs to be translated, although it calmed the situation in many ways.
So, the Central Bank announced that it will not buy currency on the domestic market "as part of mirroring the regular operations of the Ministry of Finance related to the implementation of the budget rule." At the same time, it will continue operations to sell currency for the use of the National Welfare Fund (NWF).
The meaning of the budget rule is simple: if there is a lot of oil and gas revenue (the base figure is 8 trillion rubles per year), then the surplus goes to the National Welfare Fund by purchasing Chinese yuan. If oil and gas revenues fall, then the Central Bank, on the contrary, sells the currency. The Central Bank buys and sells currency on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, that is, it acts as its agent. At the same time, to finance investment projects and current expenses, the Central Bank must sell part of the reserves. That is, carry out two operations simultaneously.
Since yesterday, the Central Bank had to buy 4.2 billion rubles of currency daily for the Ministry of Finance and sell the equivalent of 8.4 billion for budget needs. It is clear that there is a "mutual offset" or mirroring of these transactions. As a result, 4.2 billion rubles of currency entered the market. Now there will be twice as much to reduce the excitement.
The Central Bank has acted in a similar way before to stabilize the exchange rate - most recently in 2023. Then the moratorium on the purchase of currency lasted for four and a half months, and, characteristically, also in the second half of the year.
All other things being equal, the rate will be trying to find its balance in the near future. It is not yet clear how sanctions will affect the inflow of currency to our market in the short term, so sharp upswings and downswings in the rate are quite possible.
At closed meetings at the Central Bank regarding the organization of international settlements, such security rules apply that no leaks are possible, but they are not in the interests of participants in foreign economic activity. "Work is underway" is the most that can be heard from officials. Therefore, the actions that the Central Bank will take after the Americans "sanction" Gazprombank are a closely guarded secret. And anyone who claims to know the regulator's decision for sure is an info-gypsy and a swindler.
The main thing is that there are bypass and maximally non-public ways to receive foreign currency earnings to the accounts of Russian banks, but, unfortunately, they require additional costs that will be passed on to the final recipients. Including households, that is, to the wallet of an ordinary citizen.
WHAT SHOULD PEOPLE DO?
In principle, there are no particular problems buying non-cash currency at a bank or through unsanctioned brokerage companies. Another issue is that the difference between the purchase and sale rates may grow even more. And this currency cannot be withdrawn in currency itself - only in rubles.
The issue with cash is completely different. As is known, the import of dollars and euros in the form of banknotes is prohibited in Russia. But there are ways to deliver them, and no one will talk about them openly, of course. Even in sanctioned banks, you can buy cash dollars and euros - and it is easier to do than last year. There are no queues at exchange offices.
Even such banks offer the services of their partners to open Visa and MasterCard cards of foreign banks, primarily Kazakh, Kyrgyz and Armenian, with the ability to transfer funds in rubles.
Thus, travelers, especially those who do not know how or do not want to deal with cryptocurrency, have a real opportunity to use all the usual services abroad. Such a real alternative to buying cash can also have a positive impact on the exchange rate in exchange offices on the eve of the New Year holidays.
This will allow us to avoid another problem - the so-called old dollars. They are practically not accepted by Russian banks and are hardly accepted - and not everywhere - in popular tourist countries: Turkey, Vietnam, Thailand, UAE. This happens because the banknotes then need to be physically transported to the US for destruction, and transporting money costs money.
In the case of domestic banks, such transportation is simply impossible due to sanctions, and the costs of air transportation are also quite high. Therefore, our citizens are faced with the fact that they have money in the form of solvent banknotes, but they are practically impossible to spend.
Moreover, "old dollars" do not refer to the banknotes issued in the early nineties, as most citizens think. The old ones are those that are quite in use here, and the "new" ones are the banknotes with a blue 3D stripe, issued since 2013.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO PRICES?
In November, the ruble fell by 11% against the dollar, while the yuan, the main unit of account for foreign trade transactions, strengthened by 7% against our national currency. The exchange rate difference cannot but affect prices and inflation.
A 10 percent weakening of the ruble gives an increase in inflation of 0.5 percentage points. If the current official inflation is 8.78%, then 0.5 percentage points bring it to almost 9.3%. The overall level is an average value calculated for 600 goods and services, which does not mean that each product has increased in price by exactly this “official” amount.
The greatest dependence on imports is observed in the electronics, automobile, textile and pharmaceutical industries. Consequently, the increase in the cost of such products will exceed the general inflation rate. And households will have to take this into account when planning their family budget.
Here we can expect a significant increase in prices, but it will occur with some time lag, which makes the inevitable rise in price more or less smooth - again, if there is no explosive demand against the backdrop of another panic.
In the conditions of the huge dependence of the cost of everyday goods, even domestically produced ones, on imports (raw materials, technologies, equipment, etc.), words about ruble incomes and expenses, supposedly providing independence from the exchange rate, cannot be taken too literally. Everyone will definitely notice the increase in price.
#1
The Ruble was down to 113/1 against the Dollar Wednesday morning Central Time, so it has recovered slightly.
Of course, with the Russian Central Bank cutting off trading, there won't be any accurate exchange rate figuress until after the first of the year or whenever they decide to open up again.
Posted by: Mullah Richard ||
11/29/2024 7:10 Comments ||
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#2
Woo-boy! Russian economics. Sorta like Russian physics, but less comprehensable and totally untestable.
Posted by: ed in texas ||
11/29/2024 8:19 Comments ||
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[Google Translate from regnum] In the final weeks of Joe Biden’s presidency , Washington is in growing disarray. Many of his apparatchiks are desperately trying to cover up their past dealings while simultaneously seeking cushy jobs in the private sector. And no one is willing to take responsibility for the latest decisions, even though they will have far-reaching consequences for the entire world.
Although it is obvious that the decision to provide additional missiles to Ukraine has been made, none of the high-ranking officials in the White House are commenting on this. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan have kept mum. The generals in the Pentagon are also trying to keep a low profile.
In general, it is clear how "popular" this adventure was.
The situation is absolutely paradoxical - the fateful decision to escalate and provoke a third world war is made by anonymous bureaucrats, each of whom is trying to avoid any responsibility. Biden himself is once again and very timely showing the effects of senile dementia, so he is kind of off the hook.
Kamala Harris and her husband have hurriedly left Washington for a vacation in Hawaii. Technically, she has the right to do so — after all, Harris had an exhausting four months of the presidential campaign. But this is also an obvious hint to the growing number of Americans demanding that Biden be removed from power based on the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution. Since he is clearly incompetent and, finally, threatens to start a nuclear conflict.
But for a real coup against the current president, it is necessary to enlist the support of the majority of his cabinet members, along with Harris. She is also terribly afraid of doing anything and taking responsibility. That is why she flew away from the American capital in time, letting everything slide. While members of the White House National Security Council, together with the State Department apparatchiks, are trying to ignite the situation in Ukraine behind Biden’s back and leave Donald Trump with as many problems as possible as an inheritance.
Posted by: Grom the Reflective ||
11/29/2024 00:43 ||
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[Rumble] Posted by Dinesh D’Souza11/28/2024. Dr. Marty Makary appears to be testifying before Congress, flanked by former Harvard Medical School professor Dr. Martin Kulldorff and President Trump’s nominee to head NIH, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya
[AT] Part of the Establishment Bushie GOP
Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan during a recent conversation with journalist Bari Weiss made some startling revelations.
Noonan calls herself a conservative and was once a speechwriter for President Ronald Reagan. But like most mainstream conservative commentators of that era, Noonan abandoned both her conservative and journalistic principles to devolve into a rabid hater of President Trump.
She believed the hoaxes against President Trump, particularly the Trump-Russia collusion hoax. When she was proven wrong, instead of accepting her mistake, she claimed she didn’t "know what to think of Trump/Russia" and wasn't "satisfied we’ll ever fully understand it."
In such cases, there are no greys. Trump was cleared by probers despite their deep bias against him and their lack of basis for the investigation. But Noonan purposefully tried to leave the door open instead of admitting this obvious fact by feigning confusion.
Noonan's recent utterances proved how deeply she erred while covering Trump. But the sanctimonious seldom possess self-awareness, hence Noonan bragged about her mistake because she thought she was following journalistic ethics.
Noonan claimed when Trump decided to run for president his aides reached out to her for interactions. She claimed that she was hesitant to meet President Trump because she "had a feeling that up close he would be charming and funny, and that there would be something endearing, and that it would mess with my swing as an observer."
"I didn't want to see him up close. I didn't want to see him far away. I wanted- had this intuitive sense [to] see him at a middle distance. And I felt I saw him clearly at a middle distance."
Noonan was conflating intimate relationships with professional interactions. If Noonan had a romantic affair or a friendship with President Trump it would have been inappropriate and would render her unable to report on him objectively. But merely having interactions is not wrong, it is an essential component of covering any leader. Personal interactions present the opportunity to probe the thinking and understand the perspective of the leader. It is not just the words but body language which is often quite revealing. Purposefully not meeting Trump was a gross dereliction of duty on Noonan's part.
Noonan then revealed her experience when she recently met President Trump. "So two or three weeks ago, he came to the Wall Street Journal for an editorial board meeting, and my instinct kicked in again. 'Don't go.' But then I corrected myself,"
Noonan said. "I've been writing about him for eight years. I have occasionally clubbed him like a seal. He has occasionally clubbed me. And it would be so wrong if he came to my newspaper, and he couldn't go there and take retribution or do whatever he wanted to do. It just struck me as the fair, right thing. And so I went."
"So anyway, at a certain point, the doors fly open and the entourage comes in, and there's Trump, who in person in that blue suit and the tie is huge, and the hair is huge, everything is huge. And he, like, blows by others, and he just says to me, ’You are wonderful. You are the most remarkable woman.’"
"...He went on and off the record. But off the record, he was hilarious, rude, inappropriate, said things about foreign leaders that should not be said to a bunch of journalists."
"And I just sat back and thought by the end, 'Honey, your intuition was right. If you'd met him in 2015, you would have loved him and not seen him'" Noonan concluded.
Noonan inadvertently actually confessed she was in awe of Trump. She also admitted her inadequacies as a journalist i.e. she is unable to be objective when the person is warm, affectionate, charming, and funny. But most top elected officials possess star quality and journalists must be able to look beyond the charisma and blandishment to cover the individual as objectively as possible.
What Noonan also unknowingly revealed is that most of these journalists who suffered from 'TDS' weren't doing so out of principle or reason.
The first possible explanation for their inconsolable rage against Trump was that he won landslide mandates and remained popular despite their coordinated campaign against him. With every election, Trump managed to increase his voter base, which is rare in politics. Before Trump, the media was able to destroy individuals, particularly Republicans or conservatives, with a few attacks. They successfully destroyed the political careers of Sarah Palin and the Presidential candidacies of John McCain and Mitt Romney. Because these individuals never had a deep connection with the public. Hence a few hitjobs caused instant abandonment. Trump had rendered the media impotent and irrelevant.
The second possible explanation for the rabidity against Trump is they are acting on orders. This seems plausible because any given day 'experts' across outlets have identical opinions and even individual phraseology for any given incident. These media assassins know Trump isn't Hitler and a threat to democracy but repeat relentlessly because they are operating on orders from nefarious forces in Democrat leadership.
Noonan's trepidation minutes before meeting Trump also revealed that spending prolonged periods in the echo chamber causes divorce from reality. Noonan began to believe her falsehoods that Trump was a vicious beast who would deal with her with extreme brutality. But the opposite occurred.
So what do we make of this?
Since Trump entered politics not a day has gone by in which the mainstream media hasn’t behaved irresponsibly or reprehensibly or immorally. They have accused Trump of some of the worst that any human can be accused of -- treason, bigotry, dishonesty, etc. Noonan is a leading member of this odious group of propagandists.
Trump's reelection proves that they cannot sway a majority of Americans. But the bumbling word salad chef still received 74 million votes, proving the media still influences a significant number of Americans.
Human nature is such that unfairness, baseless targeting, and a defeat due to manipulation cause rage, which causes an individual to be in battle mode which results in the individual being perpetually alert. However, victories bring elation and elation causes people to ease into a relaxed mode and forget about past unfairness.
President Trump must be cautious while dealing with these media vultures.
Noonan may not have revealed the specifics of Trump's off-the-record comments, but even divulging that he made 'inappropriate' remarks about foreign leaders" was a breach of trust and journalistically unethical. In the future, specifics of the utterances could revealed and that will cause an unnecessarily difficult situation especially while conducting diplomacy.
For fair-minded and independent-thinking Americans, abandoning this corrupt and mendacious mainstream media in favor of alternative media is a worthy option.
As always, consumers must be deeply skeptical while consuming any content from any media, and treat everything false until proven true following homework.
[Federalist] I recently built a coffee table. This was my first foray into woodworking, so the table is far from perfect — with slight asymmetries and an uneven finish. A level would tell me it misses the mark of an IKEA table’s engineered flatness. But if you’ve ever built something with your hands as a hobbyist, you would know my reaction looking at this table in satisfactory triumph — "Who cares?"
Unfortunately, when it comes to trying your hand at repairing your personal property, certain manufacturers do care, and they’re getting in the way of consumers and hobbyists who just want to get their own electronics, appliances, and vehicles up and running again. This assault on our property rights and agency is at the core of the national push for legislation that secures the "Right to Repair" our personal property and explains why a half dozen states have already codified such a law.
There are innumerable legal and philosophical arguments that support the right to repair, which the Texas Public Policy Foundation addresses in a recent research paper. But I want to return to the coffee table illustration for a moment and pull on the thread of tinkering.
In simple terms, tinkering is the playful relative of engineering. This is where children learn firsthand how things work — what tools can do and the properties of different materials. Tinkering usually starts small with LEGO bricks, but in the case of almost every successful inventor and builder — people like Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, etc. — it quickly graduates into taking tech apart and putting it back together, deconstructing a car engine, and other engineering-like activities.
The problem is that many large corporations simply don’t want us to tinker.
Your iPhone? You void the warranty the second you crack it open instead of bringing it to the Genius Bar. A John Deere tractor you want to repair with your grandson? You can’t — John Deere requires that customers bring it into the shop on grounds of copyright law. Your dishwasher? Chances are it’s made by one of 86 percent of appliance companies that do not provide service manuals to customers as they do not recommend self-service (which is code for forcing you to work with one of their partnered technicians they get a kickback from).
#2
And they want to know why people keep repairing old stuff.
Posted by: ed in texas ||
11/29/2024 8:11 Comments ||
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#3
when I started repairing my 2008 Jeep I found there is no mechanical connection between the accelerator pedal and the fuel injection system it opened my eyes. Everything was electronic.
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
11/29/2024 11:14 Comments ||
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#4
In 2012 I found myself able to replace a rusted out radiator core support on my 2001 F150. It is the sheet metal supporting the radiator under the hood. Sheet metal cost $110, labor to remove & replace all the other stuff in the way was $1700 - probably more now. I bought an aftermarket core support, parked my F150 in back and replaced the rusted out support with a new one. I had another daily driver, so I could take months in my spare time to do this. I did no welding, but used pop rivets, nuts and bolts to reassemble. I got a few more years of driving out of this. By 2019 the F150 ultimately succumbed to rust.
Lack of connections mechanical,
Will leave you frustrated and frantical.
With solder and glue, we'll soldier on through,
To a future annoying and rantiful.
[Newsweek] ...I say this as an imam of the Shia community in Lebanon—the biggest threat to Lebanon and the Middle East is the radical ideology of Iran's regime. While a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is a welcome reprieve, it merely marks the beginning of the real challenge. The only way to secure a long-term peace in Lebanon is to actively roll back the Iranian regime's control of our country, and of other vulnerable nations in the region. That work must begin today.,,,Lebanon's Shia are not people of violence, nor do we wish to be known as such. It is time to reclaim our authentic identity, based on intellect, tolerance, and mutual respect. By holding on to our faith and values, many of us now reject the barbarism of Hezbollah, and seek coexistence, prosperity, and security alongside our fellow citizens and neighbors.
UN Resolutions 1559 and 1701, which call for the disarmament of Hezbollah and the re-establishment of Lebanese sovereignty, are the only hope that my community has to give a better life to our children. However, if the current ceasefire is not enforced, as was the case after the Second Lebanon War in 2006, then Iran and Hezbollah will immediately start the countdown to the Fourth Lebanon War.
Sheikh Abbas Al-Jawhari
Posted by: Lord Garth ||
11/29/2024 00:00 ||
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A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
