Hat tip: gCaptain. Peter Van Buren, a 24-year State Department veteran, is the author of "We Meant Well: How I Helped Lose the Battle for the Hearts and Minds of the Iraqi."
It seems there's a template that critics follow for Donald Trump versus the hurricanes: they say he won't do enough, that it isn't being done fast enough, that everything will collapse (ready Katrina headlines) and then the draining, heroic reality of the response takes hold. With post-Maria Puerto Rico the latest example of that trope, it's time for a better understanding of how disaster management works.
A disaster destroys in hours infrastructure that took decades to build. Millions of people lose the services that separate a middle-class suburb from an impoverished slum – clean water, sewers, power, hospitals, roads. And Maria was the strongest storm to strike the area in 80 years.
Meanwhile, the media tends to focus on drama and controversy. They often overplay the story via anecdotal reporting ("Here's Mrs. Hernandez without electricity," says the reporter, "with no help in sight") and underplay the work being done, especially at the beginning of the response where progress is hard to see. First responders on laptops methodically solving supply problems are not very mediagenic, after all.
At the moment of any disaster, needs are at 100 percent while the response is at a zero point. The response starts in deficit. It always looks grim, especially to participants and outside observers unfamiliar with the process. They want what is a marathon to play out like a sprint.
In dealing with a major disaster, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the military follow a standard playbook. I know because I worked with both on and off for two decades while with the State Department. I trained with them, and was on the ground for relief efforts after the 1995 Kobe, Japan earthquake (more than 6,000 dead) and 2004 Asian tsunami (280,000 dead.) I worked the Washington end of many other disasters. I read after-action reporting from 20-30 other such events.
The critical initial step is a needs assessment, from which everything else flows. Everyone wants to jump in and do something, but responders need time to visit sites, confer with local officials, and determine what is needed and where the needs are greatest. It is a slow process in a chaotic environment, delayed by weather, roads, and communications. From the outside it can look like nothing is being done; Mrs. Hernandez still doesn't have electricity even as helicopters are flying around, apparently ignoring her!
The needs assessment gets the right help to the right places in order of priority. As an example, I was part of a liaison team with the American Navy at Phuket, Thailand following the Asian tsunami of 2005. Without any local input, the U.S. first helicopters brought in huge fresh water bladders. It turned out most of the water was unneeded; the city had warehouses full of the bottled version.
It took a day for us to track down, but the most urgent need the Navy could address was a buildup of medical waste at local hospitals. Waste pre-disaster was trucked out daily; the tsunami wrecked the roads, and so boxes of soiled bandages and infected sharps accumulated. When American resources turned to help dispose of that, hospitals were able to run at peak capacity. Lives were saved. The water bladders lay abandoned in parking lots around town.
Other decisions that can flow from a needs assessment might include restoring power to one school to shelter 50 families before fixing 50 individual homes. It can mean blocking people from calling internationally so limited cell capacity can be directed to local emergency calls. The Federal Emergency Management Agency, for example, set as a priority reopening dialysis centers across Puerto Rico. Somebody else didn't get helped first to make that possible.
At the early-to-intermediate stages of a disaster response people in less affected areas will wait in long lines for supplies. It looks bad on TV, but can actually mean the system is working, as help was directed to a higher priority. It takes good reporting to know if that's the case. Instead, progress is often too quickly defined as "make everything back to the way it was before the storm."
The military plays a key role in disaster response. The problem is Americans are conditioned to believe there are unlimited resources of all types, instantly movable across notable distances.
Military units tend to have war fighting as their primary job and most are somewhere doing that, or training to do that. Shifting to a disaster mission can happen quickly but not instantly. It's also essential to gather people with the right skills – electrical engineers, teams that desalinate sea water for drinking, and sewage crews (3.4 million people's waste festering with fecal-borne disease is a dreaded secondary killer in this disaster.)
Much mockery has been directed at Trump's statement about Puerto Rico being an island, surrounded by "big water." His phrasing was callous, but the fact Puerto Rico is an island is significant. Unlike Texas or Florida, no one can self-evacuate, by car or even on foot. Same for incoming aid. Everything must travel by plane, or, more likely, ship.
Puerto Ricans now need some two million gallons of fresh water a day. A gallon weighs about eight pounds, so that's 16 million pounds of water. A C-130 cargo plane can carry some 42,000 pounds. So that's 380 flights a day, every day, just for water. There are bigger aircraft, but the bottom line is always the same: you simply have to move the epic quantities required to respond to an epic island disaster by ship to a port, then inland by truck.
That last step, moving supplies from a port (or airport) to those who need them is known as the "last mile" problem. It haunts every disaster response.
Success with the last mile depends on local infrastructure. If it was neglected before the disaster, it will never be better (and often will be worse) during the disaster response. Next comes the need for trucks, fuel for those trucks, drivers, security, and personnel and equipment to offload the ships and load the vehicles. If you're missing one link in the chain, the aid does not move.
These are tough realities, not excuses for why more hasn't been done for desperate people. It can be a complex, methodical process, addressing a single problem (get water to that village) as a cascading string of nested problems. While the head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency's remark that Puerto Rico relief is the "most logistically challenging event" the United States has ever faced seems exaggerated, it does underscore the size of the job at hand.
So don't be distracted by the apocalyptic tweets between Trump and his critics; they exist independent of the ground truth. Because while no response is ever fast and robust enough, the systemic breakdowns that hit New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina have largely been fixed, well-before Trump even took office.
Responses are always imperfect; lack of drinking water remains a critical issue. The loss of life in Puerto Rico is sure to rise from 16, as rescuers reach more remote areas. For Harvey, the death toll was at least 70, Irma 72. Katrina saw 1,836 fatalities with over 700 people still missing.
But a tipping point will take place, where adequate services are restored and people will start to receive the help they need. Problems will reduce from regions without power to villages without power to an isolated home without power. The principles of disaster management should not be lost in the politics surrounding events in Puerto Rico. Everything else right now seems to be just Twitter wars.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
10/05/2017 13:38 ||
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#1
Puerto RIco is a mirror image of New Orleans.
Corrupt local DEMOCRATIC administration neglects and siphons off funds for disaster preparedness to cronies and friends.
Disaster strikes and they have a convenient punching bag that the media is only more than eager to bash because they've spent their entire time demonizing the president.
The Democrats and the media have a play book that has not changed since Lenin highjacked the Russian Revolution.
[ABC] As investigators delve deeper into how Sunday night's massacre in Las Vegas unfolded, more chilling details have emerged about the suspected gunman and how he allegedly carried out the deadliest mass shooting in modern U.S. history.
Authorities said Paddock opened fire on a music festival crowd from the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino, killing 58 people and injuring 530 others. The shooting lasted nine to 11 minutes, with the first reports of gunshots beginning Sunday at 10:05 p.m. PT and the final shots being fired at 10:15 p.m.
Paddock is believed to have been solely responsible for the attack, according to police.
Speaking this evening, Lombardo said that there is evidence that indicates Paddock, a 64-year-old resident of Mesquite, Nevada, planned to escape.
However, Lombardo did not provide any details on what the evidence was or why he believes that.
Lombardo added that there are indications Paddock had some kind of help.
Car loaded with 50lbs of Tannerite. Where was it parked?Could he have ignited it with a well placed shot and created a diversion in order to escape? Was there another vehicle in the parking lot, an accomplice? Then there is the issue of wiring $100k to his girl friend on vacation in the PI, with instructions to "buy a house."
[LasVegasReviewJournal] Las Vegas Strip mass murderer Stephen Paddock used his Mandalay Bay hotel room to spray massive aviation fuel tanks with bullets Sunday night, a knowledgeable source told the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
The bullets left holes, but did not penetrate the two circular white tanks, sparing the nearby Route 91 Harvest country music festival from a potentially massive explosion, the source said Wednesday.
The tanks are roughly 1,100 feet from the concert site, where Paddock killed 58 people and wounded almost 500.
Within the past couple of days, construction crews repaired and painted the holes, and FBI agents inspected the tanks and took measurements of the line of fire from Mandalay Bay, the source said.
Paddock, a 64-year-old Mesquite resident, had broken two windows in his 32nd-floor suite — one in line with the concert site and the other with a direct view of the fuel tanks, the source said. The bases of private aircraft operators are close to the tanks.
FBI spokeswoman Sandra Breault declined to comment. “We can’t comment on an ongoing investigation,” she said late Wednesday.
[PHILADELPHIA.CBSLOCAL] A Camden woman is facing murder charges in the beating of her boyfriend last month.
It was Labor Day weekend when police in Woodlynne, Camden County were called to a convenience market on Mount Ephraim Avenue.
Jason Lewis, 35, was conscious, but bleeding from the head after he said he had been beaten by his girlfriend with a pair of frying pans, according to the Camden County Prosecutor.
The woman, 31-year-old Maleia Cole, fled to her home about a block away.
Lewis later underwent emergency surgery but departed this vale of tears last week.
Cole was apprehended without incident after being charged with murder, and awaits a pre-trial detention hearing.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/05/2017 00:00 ||
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Police requested the security footage from the store which shows Maleia Cole smash the frying pans into Jason Lewis’ head several times, literally knocking him across city limits (the town limit for Camden County and Woodlynne is right beside the convenience store).
#10
Well, as I have always said about kitchen stuff - like pots, pans, knives, rolling-pins, etc - if it isn't heavy enough to kill someone with, don't buy it.
[THESUN.CO.UK] A JEALOUS chimp called Romeo beat up a zookeeper and chewed off his ear because he thought the man was flirting with his partner Juliet.
Romeo flew into a rage when his female mate tried to kiss zookeeper Sergey through a glass window in their cage at the Feldman Eco Park zoo in Lisne, Ukraine.
The chimp started pummelling Juliet and when Sergey stepped in to try and break them up, Romeo turned on him, biting off his fingers and part of his ear. Johnny Cash once sang about this, a song called A Boy Named Sergey...
He also gave the horrified zookeeper a black eye.
Fortunately, Sergey escaped and was rushed to hospital where he underwent surgery for his injuries.
Hospital spokesman Andriy Kozachenko told local media: “The man's right ear and fingers on his left hand had been chewed and some parts of his ear and fingers are missing as they were bitten off.
“We did our best to save what was left.”
Zoo spokeswoman Valeria Ivashenko said: “Chimpanzees are very dangerous animals with strong jaws that can easily tear off flesh.
“He should not have entered the cage.
“But he has been looking after the pair of chimpanzees for six years and had feelings for them.”
Sergey said he had a close relationship with both chimps and nothing like this had ever happened before.
He said: “When Juliet kissed me through glass, Romeo became very angry.
A few months ago Romeo and Juliet had their first baby.
The zookeeper added that he knew he shouldn’t have entered the cage but broke the rules on purpose because he didn’t want Juliet to be injured.
He said is now looking forward to going back to work. Never monkey with another monkey's monkey.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/05/2017 00:00 ||
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#1
When you return to work, remember not to monkey with Juliet.
#4
Sergey controls when and what the Chimpanzees get for dinner. Lots of opportunity in that.
A Lot of things can happen to Romeo at dinner time. Sawdust mixed with monkey crap for Romeo. OR a LOT of ExLax and nobody the wiser. Keep it up and then spice it up with Nausea medication. An entire Pharmacology taken to extremes. And THEN we move Juliet to a separate cage....and stop cleaning up after Romeo. The full treatment.
Posted by: Glalet Scourge of the Boskonians5304 ||
10/05/2017 6:22 Comments ||
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#5
Re #4, Based on our experience with abusive spouses, it wouldn't do any good.
As Equifax's former chief executive tried to explain how the company responded to the massive data breach before a stern congressional panel, viewers couldn't help but notice the oddly dressed character hovering over his left shoulder.
It was the "Monopoly man," a.k.a. Rich Uncle Pennybags.
The man was actually a woman, Amanda Werner, a campaign manager for the nonprofits Americans for Financial Reform and Public Citizen.
Werner, who sported a tuxedo, an enormous white mustache and a bulging bag of $100 bills, said her goal was to photobomb Smith as he testified before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Her group aims to bring attention to congressional attempts to undermine a new consumer protection rule intended to weaken the forced arbitration clauses in many contracts.
To guarantee the perfect seat from which to troll Smith, one of Werner's interns from Americans for Financial Reform arrived at the Dirksen Senate Office Building at 7 a.m. to save her a spot.
Werner chose a seat just behind Smith ‐ where cameras would capture her ‐ and performed live-action trolling throughout the hearing. Those included dabbing invisible sweat off her brow with ridiculously large paper money bills and using her monocle to gaze intently at Smith, with mock curiosity. (As many close observers have noted, the Monopoly man does not, in fact, wear a monocle.) "I was able to figure out, by having seen a lot of these hearings, which seat would be most visible," Werner said. "Once I got it, I went full in and just did as many visual gags as I could." Werner and her colleagues also hand-delivered "get out of jail free cards" to all 100 Senate offices on Tuesday, she said.
[Dhaka Tribune] Jessia Islam has been selected as the new face to represent Bangladesh in the main competition of Miss World. Jannatul Nayeem Avril, the former Miss World Bangladesh champion’s title was disqualified followed by all the controversies about her past marriage and more. Jessia as new Miss World Bangladesh was announced by the organisers at a presser on Wednesday evening (October 4) at The Westin Dhaka hotel in Gulshan.
The judges of the grand finale including fashion designer Bibi Russell, actress Shampa Reza, photographer Chanchal Mahmood were present at the presser. Organiser Swapan Chowdhury of Antar Showbiz, Co-organizer Omicon Entertainment’s Chairman Mehedi Hasan and title sponsor Lovello’s Managing Director Md Ekramul Haque were present at the presser.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/05/2017 00:00 ||
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[DAWN] Shouting "occupation forces out" and "the streets will always be ours," hundreds of thousands turned out in Barcelona on Tuesday to protest police violence during a banned weekend independence referendum in Catalonia.
Columns of people converged onto the city centre as the region went on general strike. A police helicopter flying overhead drew angry whistles as Catalans reel from the unrest that marred parts of the Spain’s northeast region on Sunday.
"On October 1, we were an occupied country, and they haven’t left yet," Antonia Maria Maura, a 56-year-old primary school teacher, said of national police and Guardia Civil forces that were deployed to Catalonia from other parts of Spain to stop the vote.
City police said 300,000 people were marching in the streets of Barcelona in a peaceful atmosphere, though there were tense moments as protesters said they feared agitators would try and sow discord.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/05/2017 00:00 ||
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What did the Europeans expect after decades of diminishing sovereignty in favor of national organizations. Why not have Catalonia and Scotland and Bavaria as members of the EU. Assuming the EU is the future as they've been saying.
[DAWN] Four more women were stabbed and injured by the "knifeman" in Bloody Karachi ...formerly the capital of Pakistain, now merely its most important port and financial center. It is among the largest cities in the world, with a population of 18 million, most of whom hate each other and many of whom are armed and dangerous... in the vicinity of Aziz Bhatti and Shahrah-e-Faisal cop shoppes on Wednesday, bringing the official number of victims to 10, a police spokesperson told Dawn.
Fear and panic prevailed among the residents of the area as police authorities fail to arrest ostensibly a lone attacker who has been on a stabbing spree since last week in Gulistan-e-Jauhar and adjoining areas.
Fear gripped residents after reports surfaced of a "knife attacker" targeting women in the area. Subsequently, the police had launched a manhunt and an investigation into the motive and identity of the attacker.
The latest attacks come after the Karachi East-Zone Deputy Inspector General (DIG) Sultan Ali Khowaja announced that police officials were deployed in at least 30 points in Gulistan-e-Jauhar along with decoy teams in order to prevent the attacks and arrest the culprit, a day before.
According to the police, a woman was stabbed near Millenium Mall in the Gulistan-e-Jauhar area. Another woman was attacked at Aziz Bhatti Park in Gulshan-e-Iqbal. Both attacks occurred in the jurisdiction of the Aziz Bhatti cop shoppe.
A third woman was attacked in Gulshan-e-Jamal that falls under the Shahrah-e-Faisal cop shoppe.
The fourth incident was reported in Gulshan-e-Iqbal, where a 13-year old girl was stabbed and injured.
She was taken to Jinnah hospital for treatment. The hospital’s executive director, Dr Seemin Jamali said that the girl sustained minor stab wounds on her back.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/05/2017 00:00 ||
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I suspect LTC Heffington's DA Form 2823 was reviewed by the West Point Superintendent Lieutenant General Robert L. Caslen. I believe LTC Caslen is still the Superintendent. Perhaps he could shed some light on the CDT, now Captain Rapone situation.
[Breitbart] Not sure this is what Commissioner Goodell had in mind when he emphasized community outreach. A pair of new videos showing several NFL players taunting fans, and screaming the "f-word" have been revealed.
The videos from last Monday’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Washington Redskins show Redskins player Terrell Pryor and Chiefs player Marcus Peters going off on fans who were yelling at them from the stands.
In the first video, Chiefs defensive back Marcus Peters responds to fans who were likely offering less than kind criticism after he gave up a 44-yard touchdown early in the game.
Peters is seen yelling out, "F**k you, b**ch," and then slamming his helmet to the ground in anger:
#2
We are at the tipping point of the NFL losing the the whole shebang. I am up to here with shadenfreude for the NFL.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
10/05/2017 1:11 Comments ||
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This seems like another rule broken (apart from breaking the rules on your national anthem ceremony) that the NFL will ignore as it swirls into the drain.
#8
I wonder if the "taking a knee" about the police might be popular among NFL players not just because of virtue signalling, but because there may be a lot closer contact with the police. Maybe not player X, but he undoubtedly knows somebody. https://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/arrests/
Posted by: James ||
10/05/2017 9:44 Comments ||
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It'll be interesting when a few ex-millionaire players living on welfare (because higher minimum wages replaced the fry cook with a robot) learn that the NFL players weren't racist after all, they just didn't want any politics (as was shown by the minimal anger when pro-Cop and pro-9/11 support efforts were shut down by the NFL). When they truly grasp they killed the golden goose because they were stupid and misinformed.
#10
It's not the first time in NFL history that the fans and the players have 'interacted'; it just took this latest bout of progressive idiocy to get past the network cameras.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
[THESUN.CO.UK] A JEALOUS chimp called Romeo beat up a zookeeper and chewed off his ear because he thought the man was flirting with his partner Juliet..jpg)
