"Since 1756, the modern-state system has experienced four global wars; The Seven Years War, The French Revolutionary Wars, World War I, and World War II. The longest global peace came between 1815 and 1914, and it has now been seventy years since the last world war.
Every global war needs a spark. A conflict somewhere ignites the interest of more than one great power. World War I had the assassination of Franz Ferdinand; the Seven Years War had desultory fighting between the French and British along the Mississippi River. The combatants do not always appreciate that the sparks can lead to conflagrations.
But at some point things escalate. Other major nations become involved, and the initial cause of war becomes subsumed under great power competition. The goal of fighting becomes the establishment of a new global order, and with the increase in stakes comes an increase in the resources committed by the combatants, and the sacrifices that their people make."
#2
Nonsense. While Turkey needs to be taught a lesson---because they forgot the one taught to them in WWI---Russians are too pragmatic for a full scale war. I expect "PKK" to get some advanced AA weapons. Maybe an "unfortunate" encounter, or two, between Russian & Turkish warplanes over Syria.
As the article says, escalations happen without anyone really intending them.
And I wouldn't use the word 'pragmatic' to describe Erdogan.
Here's a scenario for you. Russian and Turkish planes clash. Russia sends naval forces through the Bosphorus to reinforce Assad. Turks try to stop them. Shooting ensues. Russian ship sunk. Russia takes down the 2 bridges over the Bosphorus in retaliation. Moves its Crimea naval forces south toward the virtually undefended north shore of European Turkey.
Russia has wanted unimpeded access to the Med for 200 years. Seems too good an opportunity to miss. And the Greeks will be on side.
#6
Even if the Greeks don't actively participate, they will give a big thumbs down to Nato to use their territory. And I doubt the Bulgarians will be be too cooperative either.
NATO needed Turkey to contain Russia during the Cold War. Since then they have been surplus to requirements.
#8
(Singing) We did it before, and we can do it again.
Posted by: Redneck Jim ||
11/23/2015 4:43 Comments ||
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#9
I'll take what's behind curtain #1. Everybody in the middle east is shooting at somebody else already. Except Israel. One of those playas sensing that they're losing is going to go after the Big Prize and go for the Hail Mary and take a swing at her. Hillarity ensues.
#12
procopius the leftards still talk about the US imperialist empire as if it exists while ignoring the theocratic empire of the caliphate that is being brought back to life
#13
A Turkey Russia war would be interesting in that Greece is super-poor right now but would probably be happy to take a slightly damaged Constantinople off of Russian hands if asked nicely. That way the Russians can break things without worrying about occupation duties and still get what they want.
#14
Russians might be embarrassed if they have to fight Turkey. Escalation from there could get ugly.
Posted by: Abu Uluque ||
11/23/2015 14:03 Comments ||
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#15
"Russians might be embarrassed if they have to fight Turkey. Escalation from there could get ugly."
I'll order more popcorn, Abu.
Posted by: Barbara ||
11/23/2015 16:44 Comments ||
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#16
Things are starting to resemble the Fourth Crusade ca. 1204 AD. Hat tip to those who mentioned "City of Fortune" here yesterday. I am reading it on my Overlook app.
I think the sous-IP Nazi got me last night, and found that it is possibly more difficult to type when adults are watching the game than when the kids are tugging my shirt.
City of Fortune
Roger Crowley
Random House, 2012
This is Mr. Crowley's third book, preceded by 1453 - Holy War for Constantinople, and Empires of the Sea - The Siege of Malta, Battle for Lepanto, and the Contest for the Center of the World. By the material, City of Fortune occurs first covering over 500 years of history beginning at 1000 AD, in 375 pages. So it moves deliberately, emphasizing ports of call.
The conflicts, especially crucial military events, are well detailed, beginning with controlling the Adriatic and the Fourth Crusade which includes the sacking of Constantinople, as well as the War of Chioggia where Venice itself is nearly overrun by a coalition including the Hungarians and the rival Genoese, whom the Venetians conflict with throughout this time period. The War of Chioggia was unfamiliar to me, and Mr. Crowley writes in such a manner that even though I knew who would win, I was in doubt to the very end and through the next chapter; if it were a movie, I would doubt its authenticity.
Maps and color pictures in the hardback edition.
Before getting along much further:
What I found more interesting would be the politics and logistics covered.
"A larger merchant galley was evolved, principally a sailing vessel with increased cargo sizes and cut journey times. A galley that could carry 150 tons below-decks in the 1290s had enlarged to a carrier of 250 tons by the 1450s. This galea grosssa was heavy on manpower. It required a crew typically of over two hundred, including 180 oarsmen..."
(excellent Reference section)
Each Venetian rower was also a soldier, with his weapons stored under his bench ready to fight. Each ship. Just making the route.
One can see why some of the deadliest navy fights in history are in the Age of Oar.
#1
I had a good question and assistance from Trailing Wife. The question was, does the galley crew include soldiers. It is a good question, not only were there pirates, but the Genoese who were just as competent seafarers and the two peoples hated each other, and had a series of wars where each others' shipping was targeted. A typical outfitting would only have a couple days worth of provisions, mainly water was an issue, so ships would hug the coastline making shipping fairly predictable, especially in The Black Sea where there were no islands to hop around. And the Venetians and Genoese both competed heavily in that arena as trade there bypassed the surging Ottoman Turks and Mamluks, cutting out a middleman:
What was different about the Venetians was the loyalty of the rowing crew. Crowley explains that helped the Venetian sea experience, even going so far as allowing them to store goods underneath their bench to trade at the next port. The Venetian rowers were expected to be the men at arms in a fight. Also, the design of their merchant vessels towered over the traditional oared ships at the time, further giving a Venetian merchant the advantage.
When a Venetian bought a ship, the company didn't so much as buy it, but rent it from the state, and the state required certain minimum standards before leaving port, which is the crossbowmen. In a war fleet, additional soldiers would be carried in stead of trade cargo. They even developed a ship with a drop down front where cavalry, the horses shipped strapped as hammocks, could exit straight onto the beach.
In the Age of Oar, even sailed vessels relied on the oarsman. There is a harrowing account of a ship which was becalmed (h/t TW) on how the food rots and the water becomes undrinkable, the people start to die from disease. A calm was as dangerous as a storm.
Towards the end of the Battle of Chioggia, an unpopular choice of City Commander nearly led to revolt, prompting the release of Captain Pisani, who had been imprisoned for a debacle which let the Genoese navy sail into the Adriatic.
Page 212, "You want us to go in the galleys," went up the cry in Saint Mark's Square, "give us our Captain Pisani!"
The Senate eventually acquiesces, and the next day the benches for volunteers into the navy were overwhelmed .
Now, I have to give credit to this book, and all of Mr. Crowley's books, for its excellent reference section - bibliography, index, notes which include the validity of quotes. Not such a big deal with the Venetians as he said they found some 40 miles of matriculate documents, as say in 1453 where whatever documents there were, were destroyed. Mr. Crowley had the humility to point out certain passages where the integrity of the source were suspect.
And about those standards before leaving port: everything was rated down to which ropes were of what quality and how they can be used, and shows how that paid off with an account of a ship which first survives a brutal storm and then is threatened to be blown into the rocks and is saved only by the quality of the ship, then the quality of the anchor rope.
I have been to St. Mark's square, that for me was easy to picture that scene. The storm at sea, he had me chewing my fingers.
There is an account, especially in 1453, of a handful of Venetian ships of this type trying to run the Ottoman blockade when the wind falters and they get surrounded by the Ottoman navy - and fight well enough long enough that the wind picks up again and they can escape. Mehmed was furious at his navy's inability to conquer these ship. Empires of the Sea further chronicles the Venetian seafaring and vessel construction during The Battle of Lapanto where the Venetians anchored the allied left with what would be nothing short of battleships of the age.
Each Venetian rower was also a soldier, with his weapons stored under his bench ready to fight.
On reflection, freeing the oarsmen is a last resort. The professional soldiers would be armored and equipped with pikes, an arquebus, so forth. The whip and the chain would be an oarsman's normal duty, but if it got down to all hands on deck, more often than not a Venetian captain could draw on his rowing crew to defend the ship. Captain's call I would guess. At Lapanto, both sides promised freedom for the rowers, some unshackled them, most stayed shackled, one Ottoman ship had the oarsmen slip from their chains and attack their former masters.
The Venetians were apparently good at winning the loyalty of the crew, likely from trade incentives and sailing skill, but as more and more ships took to the water, there was a strain on manpower and slaves more and more often took the oars, which would be a problem for the captain, especially if the slaves were from competing ideologies: Genoese, Orthodox, Muslim, Slav, Criminal.
Part of the challenge reviewing this book is that most of the passages can be steeped for five minutes and sipped on for fifteen.
#3
Snowy, it was that audio which turned me on to this series. The narrator, John Lee, IMHO reads with great emotion, hits the accents, and drew me in so tight I had to pause the player when driving in traffic.
I picked it up for a road trip, thinking, hey I've been to Malta, enjoyed the $5 gift store book, why not? Holy. Crap.
There was a time when I simply had no time to read: another good narrator, IMHO, is the series featuring Charlton Griffin - what I listened to was The Jewish War (Josephus), Julius Caesar, Hannibal (Harold Lamb), Charlemagne, Alexander the Great (Arrian), The March of the Ten Thousend (Xenophon), The Twelve Caesars (Seutonis), Tamerlane (Harold Lamb).
I thought he did a fine job with all of them, but found Hannibal absolutely engrossing.
#6
In the beginning there was much a common purpose..Venice!..and everyone grew up as neighbors in the wooden town sticking out of the ocean. You might enlist as a rower, and know that the chains and whip are part of the job, but there was probably not a total stranger on the ship.
This is just me talking, and Mr. Crowley does mention towards the end of the book that fissures had developed between the crews and oarsmen. As Venice acquired wealth and colonies, fewer poor were available for the brutal job - sitting on a plank, exposed to the elements, constant rowing, and if he was lucky enough to get enough food and water to relieve himself, it was there on the plank. That is a tough life, but as they traveled and traded, returned to Venice, raised a family, told their children stories and taught them trading skills, the 'poor' of Venice were significantly better off than their contemporaries, so those children would go off and try their luck in trade and there was a diminishing pool of oar labor being produced by Venice.
I would say an accelerator of that divide was the second taking of Constantinople, 1204, an event this books does get into detail about where 1453 just sort of mentions it; why if I could do it again I would start with this book. This time Constantinople is thoroughly ravaged and the wealth of the city is taken to Venice. But not just the bullion, the trade rights to both Constantinople and The Black Sea, as well as various islands is where the wealth was. Ships were built, businesses established, a massive increase in overall wealth in Venice and ventures needed ships built, everyone benefitted. Fewer rowers.
It occurred to me this morning that if I were to sail a fleet against the Genoese I would want Venetians on the oars. They may be exhausted from the journey, more so by battle maneuvers, unarmored, and unskilled with weapons, but they could reload, tend the wounded, and with pikes they could at least present a bristle of steel versus a boarding party.
The Battle of Chioggia, 1378, Venice had 30 ships in storage which were filled only after the release of Captain Pisani, who many believed was wrongfully jailed as a scapegoat of disaster, allegedly his subordinates ignored his order and charged the Genoese off the boot of Italy, right into a trap. Only a handful of the fleet survived.
Also, the passage of the storm at sea remarked the passengers heard the oarsmen rolling about on deck, which would imply they were unchained, which at some level the crew trusted the oarsmen to not mutiny after the danger had passed.
There is a ton of other information here: the various acts which received scorn from the Papacy, trade rules with the Mamluks or The Golden Hoard, dealings in Cyprus, the Battle of Negroponte, office appointments and conditions, the immense gathering of intelligence, and just day to day dealings.
For Rantburgers, it is a fairly easy and quick read, and with some imagination can really extract some understanding of the greatest trading nation on earth at the time, and the general mood of the Mediterranean at that point in history.
#7
The whip and the chain would be an oarsman's normal duty...
Were the oarsmen slaves? I know they weren't in the classical age, and I'd be surprised if they were any other time. OK -- not all that surprised if the Muslims used galley slaves.
Slaves have no motivation not to screw up, and when you're rowing like that, screwing up is easy. Throw off the rhythm, don't draw the oar in quickly enough, on and on...
Posted by: Rob Crawford ||
11/23/2015 22:47 Comments ||
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To win a war you need both the will and the means to do so. It isn't clear that Europe has the will to defeat the Islamists -- the elites certainly do not, but the average Euro citizen might be rallied. But without the means it won't matter. As this op-ed piece demonstrates, Europe doesn't have the means.
Odds are rising that France and other European nations could end up in a Middle East ground war. That’s worrisome in itself, but there are also concerns that years of cutbacks in European defense budgets could leave the continent’s militaries unprepared for a wily battlefield foe like the Islamic State terror group that recently killed 129 people in a spate of Paris attacks.
The 28 nations that comprise the North Atlantic Treaty Organization agreed last year that every member’s defense spending should total at least 2% of that nation’s GDP. But only five NATO members are likely to hit that threshold this year: The United States, United Kingdom, Greece, Estonia and Poland. A few of Europe’s biggest nations are far below that target. Germany spends just 1.2% of GDP on defense; Italy, 1%; Spain, a paltry 0.9%.
“These are countries that have enormous shared responsibility with the United States and their NATO partners,” says Jeff Rathke, deputy director of the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “We all agree they need to redress their low defense spending.”
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Steve White ||
11/23/2015 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[11127 views]
Top|| File under: Islamic State
#1
Welcome, Y'all, to OWG-NWO + Socialism.
At this rate, the US-West could very well end up relying on Nuclear Iran or even Pakistan = OWG Islamist Nuclear Caliphate for its security???
Lest we fergit, 1990's CLINTONISM = THE [Arrogant Fascist Male Brute Capitalist Imperialist, etc.] US-N-ONLY-THE-US "MUST BE RESTRAINED AND CONTROLLED", by One or More, Weird-N-Mysterious, but only PCorrect + Co-Incidental, It-That-Must-Not-be-Named Third-Party(s)???
THE US-N-ONLY-THE-US IS "TOO STRONG/POWERFUL" PER THE ABOVE, ERGO BY THE TIME IT SINKS GUAM + OTHER KEY PACIFIC ISLANDS IN RIGHTEOUS OBAMA/US-LED ANTI-US OWG-NWO AND ANTI-CHINESE ANDOR ANTI-CALIPHATE "A2/AD" DENIAL + INDIGNATION, THE PROPAGANDA "WEAK-N-DECLINING" US WILL HAD DEVOL INTO THE DE FACTO "WEAK-N-DECLINING" US???
Where FRANCE may end up using + violating the mandate or charter of its legendary Foreign Legion by using same to defend domestic French soil from the Hard Boyz, instead of overseas as required by both the FFL Charter + French Law.
I'm more worried that some nut job will try to nuke Americca.
Posted by: Redneck Jim ||
11/23/2015 4:40 Comments ||
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#4
...I've been saying for years that most of the continental NATO forces are no more than armed administrative units, mostly intended to show just enough activity to keep us from leaving. If a GOP contender wants my vote, address this - two percent of GDP every year, no excuses, or we come home.
Mike
Posted by: Mike Kozlowski ||
11/23/2015 5:24 Comments ||
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#5
... and welcome to the world of 'cooked books'.
#9
Still not sure why the US didn't leave NATO after the fall of the Soviet Union. At the very least we should have stopped the military welfare state Bright Pebbles talks about. It *might* have had a point during the cold war (debatable) but clearly had none after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Mark Twain once said there are lies, damned lies and statistics. We saw all of these from the Obama administration this week as it desperately tried to defend its foolhardy plan to bring Syrian refugees into the United States without adequately vetting them for ISIS terrorists.
To counter demands by Republican lawmakers and presidential candidates that President Obama drop his plan to admit 10,000 Syrian refugees next year, the Obama administration issued statistics and other information to the press this week to reassure the American people that ISIS cannot use this route to infiltrate the U.S. because these refugees will be carefully screened.
Just under 2,200 Syrian refugees have been admitted to the U.S. since the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011. Most were admitted over the last year. The Obama administration told reporters this week that roughly half of all Syrian refugees admitted to date have been children. It claims around 25% are adults over 60 and only 2% have been single males of "combat age." Not surprisingly, the mainstream media published these statistics without questioning them.
Obama officials also said there is a robust vetting process for these refugees that includes biometrics, background checks by U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies, and interviews.
So where did the statistics come from? A U.S. government report? Congressional testimony? No, these numbers were given to the press in a private briefing by three unnamed senior officials. This means there's no way to check the accuracy of this data or to hold these officials accountable for their claims.
The Obama administration doubled down on its Syrian refugee statistics on Thursday by tweeting a chart that said 23,092 Syrian refugees have been referred by the UN to the U.S. since 2011; 7,014 were interviewed by the Department of Homeland Security; 2,034 have been admitted into the U.S. and zero of those admitted have been arrested or removed on terrorism charges.
It is impossible to evaluate these Syrian refugee statistics without seeing all of the data. For example, what percentage of Syrian refugees applying for admittance to the U.S. were men of military age? And if it is true that only 2% of military-age men were admitted over the last year, are there others still being processed? How many were arrested or deported for non-terrorism charges?
We also should assume that the set of refugees admitted over the last year is different from the recent refugee surge, about 72% of which have been men of military age. How will the composition of this new set of refugees change the future number of Syrian military-age men admitted as refugees?
The administration's claims about the refugees screening process are also hard to believe. House Homeland Security Chairman Michael McCaul has called the president's plan to bring in Syrian refugees a "federally sanctioned welcome party" to potential terrorists because the screening process is so inadequate. FBI Director James Comey has said the federal government does not have the ability to conduct thorough background checks on Syrian refugees.
Posted by: Frank G ||
11/23/2015 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[11132 views]
Top|| File under: Islamic State
#1
As I pointed out to Mrs. Bobby yesterday when she said the refugees would be vetted - the French wacked three terrorists last week in the apartment siege and they still don't know who two of them are. So those two (late) terrorists could've passed any vetting. They could've been from Mars and no one would have known.
Posted by: Bobby ||
11/23/2015 7:51 Comments ||
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#2
Obama lies about Syrian refugees? Who would have known?
#3
Tell you what. We'll use the process they employ to vet Syrian/Middle East refugees as the same process DoJ will now accept for vetting police recruits in Ferguson et al.
#5
First vetted by the UNHCR, whose head was born and raised in a Palestinian refugee camp established in 1948, background checks aren't possible. Biometric tracking apparently isn't possible if we lose track of legal immigrants whose visas expire or are waived. Besides full benefits and housing on the taxpayers dime, refugees cannot be removed until a functioning government exists to return to. What could possibly go wrong?
h/t Instapundit
America is in the grip of a crisis, namely a shortage of normal people. Evidence indicates that the population of kooks and freaks is rapidly increasing, and there are simply not enough sane people to keep the weirdos under control. Especially among the under-30 demographic, the United States is struggling to cope with the proliferation of dangerous perverts, drug addicts, psychotics and Ivy League liberal arts majors: And not just USA
#1
I am seeing the same thing. Perhaps I am older and can compare and contrast but change has occurred. The young and old and with most races but less so with Asians. Small towns to large cities you see the same changes. Drug use, prescribed, over the counter and illegal items. They will use anything for the high. 1/3 want help, 1/3 want high whatever the cost, 1/3 are borderline. Law enforcement see cocaine, meth, heroin party and advise next time they get complaint with photo information they have as prof with young children present they will be arrested. That's if you have police available.
#3
When you celebrate diversity and apotheosize it to a god, that is what you are going to get. Reinforcement of deviant behavior diversity of behavior in all forms will get you a bunch of weirdos straying from the norms.
#4
Intelligence is finite. There are just more people now.
[What do you expect from a social rewards system in which everyone gets a trophy for showing up? Darwinism may be cruel but it permits the species/group to survive.]
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
