[DAWN] It is the season of political immaturity and nobody is putting their money on the outcome.
The stock market has seen historic withdrawals sparked by panic. The rupee is struggling as importers are buying dollars in large quantities, also driven by panic. Day-to-day government work has ground to a halt. Shipments of edibles and fuel into cities and towns across Punjab are disrupted, leaving markets and homes running low on supplies of perishable food.
Citizens have to first locate pumps that are open and then endure a four-hour wait to fill up. The intercity movement of goods and people is strangulated, decisions remain stuck in limbo, stocks are running low in factories and homes and uncertainty grips the financial markets as the country waits to see how the brewing confrontation between the government and the PTI will end. Pakistain may have witnessed worse situations before, such as the post-election violence of 1977, but even today, extra-constitutional intervention cannot be discounted.
The blame lies with the politicians, beginning with Imran Khan ... aka Taliban Khan, who ain't the sharpest bulb on the national tree... , who has thrown a spanner into the wheel of democratic consolidation in Pakistain. His grievances, while valid and in need of investigation, do not merit such extreme action, especially when it is yet to be demonstrated convincingly that the irregularities pointed out changed the outcome of the election. Many elections, particularly in developing countries, when examined under the microscope, will show irregularities of some sort, and Pakistain is no exception.
But, instead of calling for a re-election and demonstrating his support on the streets, the wiser course would have been for Mr Khan to accept the government's offer of negotiating a way out of the stand-off. In the end, the vast and messy contest of democracy works only because all parties agree that the outcome in hand is the only one they have to work with in spite of imperfections in the process. Mr Khan might think he deserved to win the election last year, but he did not and must accept that reality.
And what is Nawaz Sharif ... served two non-consecutive terms as prime minister, heads the Pakistain Moslem League (Nawaz). Noted for his spectacular corruption, the 1998 Pak nuclear test, border war with India, and for being tossed by General Musharraf... 's excuse for his role in such amateur politics? After all, this is not his first taste of the combustibility of Pak democracy. He takes pride in presenting himself as the repository of Pakistain's political memory, boasting three decades of experience in politics. Was it then so hard for the prime minister to deal with Mr Khan's grievances before matters came to a head? Was it necessary to blockade his own capital and his hometown, thereby signalling his weakness and desperation?
Mr Khan has behaved like a novice by not leaving himself a way to climb down from the maximalist position he has taken. But Mr Sharif has played into his opponents' hands by staying aloof for long and then panicking. The result is a march of folly that begins tomorrow and ends in territory as yet unknown.
Posted by: Fred ||
08/13/2014 00:00 ||
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[DAWN] The battle lines are more or less defined now with the approach of Aug 14. Unsurprisingly, Tahirul Qadri ...Pak politician, and would-be dictator, founder and head of Tehreek-e-Minhajul Quran and Pakistain Awami Tehrik. He usually resides in Canada, but returns to Pakistain periodically to foam at the mouth and lead demonstrations. Depending on which way the wind's blowing, Qadri claims to be the author of Pak's blasphemy law. Other times he says it wasn't him... has joined hands with Imran Khan ... aka Taliban Khan, who who convinced himself that playing cricket qualified him to lead a nuclear-armed nation with severe personality problems... for the 'azadi march'. His fanatically motivated supporters, drawn mainly from the lower middle classes across the Punjab heartland, may add spine to Imran Khan's middle-class youth brigade with no experience of street agitation.
Besides, Qadri has set a more strident tenor for D-Day. Now there is no going back on the 'revolution', he has warned his allies. It is certainly the politics of expediency that has brought together Qadri and Khan on the same platform. But the radical rhetoric of the Canada-based holy man and his incitement to violence could turn him into a liability for the PTI and prove to be the undoing of the 'azadi march' even before it has taken off. Nevertheless the new coalition will shape the emerging political polarisation in the country.
Most other political parties are sitting on the fringes weighing their options as the confrontation comes to a head. What happens on Aug 14 is most likely to determine their future course of action. But more importantly, what are the choices for the beleaguered prime minister in this hour of reckoning?
Will he sail through the storm or be swept away by the tide? Having already lost the initiative in the battle of narratives, Nawaz Sharif ... served two non-consecutive terms as prime minister, heads the Pakistain Moslem League (Nawaz). Noted for his spectacular corruption, the 1998 Pak nuclear test, border war with India, and for being tossed by General Musharraf... faces a tough fight ahead to survive in power against strong odds. It is more than just a political battle; the government's unresolved tension with the generals over Musharraf's treason trial and a host of other issues will also matter in the endgame.
Having been thrown out of power halfway through his tenure twice, one expected Sharif to exercise discretion while tackling the mounting political tension. However, Caliphornia hasn't yet slid into the ocean, no matter how hard it's tried... the dynamics of the present crisis are quite different from the past. Unlike his previous terms, when the power struggle at the top echelon cost him his government, Sharif is confronting a street show of force challenging the very legitimacy of his rule for the first time.
Surely, the threat is compounded by the conflict within the power structure. Sharif's uninspiring and absent leadership does not help his cause for mobilising mass support for the impending battle. The concentration of power within a small family circle has exposed the weak ability of the government to motivate party cadres to stand up to the challenge
Yet there is no sign the prime minister realises the gravity of the situation. He still wonders where he has gone wrong. His speech on Monday at the launching of Vision 2025 had a defensive tone with no clarity on how he is going to fight the battle. He still seems to be in a state of denial about the gathering storm. His implicit inference to the military being the author of the script will surely further sour already tense civil-military relations at this crucial stage.
The Punjab government's perilous handling of the Qadri issue — first the killing of 14 Minhajul Koran activists in June and then the recent blocking of the roads by containers — has cost the administration dearly. The spectacle of men and women crawling under the containers to reach their destinations in Lahore could not be more politically damaging for the Sharif brothers. The container strategy has failed to work and any move to detain Imran Khan and other leaders ahead of the Aug 14 sit-in will surely boomerang on the administration, fuelling uncontrollable violence across Punjab and perhaps giving more dead bodies for Qadri to exploit.
It would have been more sensible had the government permitted the PTI's march in the first place. In that case, the onus of maintaining peace would squarely be on the opposition. Now Qadri's joining the march has changed the matrix and any show of flexibility by the government would be taken as a sign of weakness. The space for Sharif regaining the initiative is fast shrinking.
Yet it is not the end of the road for the Sharif government. There are still a few options left for the troubled prime minister to regain the lost political space. His biggest political capital is the party's absolute majority in the National Assembly that he has yet to put into action. A major problem for Sharif is his utter disregard for parliament. His rare appearances in the House and inability to initiate debate on major policy issues has rendered parliament ineffective and increased his isolation.
It took a long time for Sharif to embrace the other major parties represented in parliament and that too came when the chips were down. Inviting politicians to the national security meeting to discuss the North Wazoo military operation may be a positive move.
But mixing the discussion on security issues with politics in the presence of the military brass raises some relevant questions about the actual purpose of bringing together the civilian and military leadership. The image of a line of army generals in their battle fatigues sitting across the table from the politicians was presumably meant to send a signal to the public of the military's backing for the government.
What was the idea behind the decision to telecast live the prime minister's opening remarks concerning the political crisis in what was supposed to be an in-camera security briefing? This kind of game is counterproductive. The government is expected to take a saner approach in such a situation.
Sharif may be down, but he is not out of the game yet. It is neither a 1993 nor a 1999 situation when he lost the power struggle. But the wrong moves could land him into the same situation. It is not just the issue of facing up to the challenge thrown by the Qadri-Imran combine, Sharif also needs to address other problems concerning governance and the economy to ensure his survival in power and avert the derailing of a fledgling democratic process.
Posted by: Fred ||
08/13/2014 00:00 ||
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[Dhaka Tribune] In what is almost certainly his last job in public service, Secretary of State John F. I was in Vietnam, you know Kerry Former Senator-for-Life from Massachussetts, self-defined war hero, speaker of French, owner of a lucky hat, conqueror of Cambodia, and current Secretary of State... is bumbling his way around the world, ricocheting from crisis to crisis. The idea of the last chapter of his biography portraying him as a punch line can't sit well. But is it Kerry's fault, or is he simply being swept up in an American foreign policy in historic disarray?
America lashed out after the September 11, 2001 attacks, and a decade later has substituted strategic incoherence for idiotic decisiveness. A common meme is that Kerry is at worst a bad actor stuck in an even worse movie, contributing little to lift it up but at the same time not baring any real responsibility for the flick's failure.
There's truth in that, but it misses Kerry's genuine capacity for haplessness. Over decades, this kind of serial failure just did not happen to previous secretaries of state. Not Schultz, not Baker, not Powell, not Albright, not Clinton.
To understand John Kerry's near-unique failures as secretary of state, it is important to look at how a secretary's trips abroad are conducted, and how secretaries in the past have used the State Department to accomplish their goals. I know, because during my own 24-year career at the State Department, I was on the receiving end of many of these visits.
There's truth in that, but it misses Kerry's genuine capacity for haplessness.
A secretary of state visit is planned in excruciating detail, both by Washington staff (known to insiders as "The Line") and by the embassy on the ground. Short notice just means more people stay up later to prepare. Senior people at State doing this work have likely been in government since the Reagan administration, as Foreign Service Officers are not political appointees, and serve both Democratic and Republican administrations over their careers. "Use the building," the rank-and-file always say to incoming secretaries, "take advantage of the expertise of the six floors below your office." Nobody can know everything.
"Talking points" are a key planning item used to pull in all that expertise. The points ensure a tired and busy secretary does not need to know everything, and neither leaves out something important nor strays from policy. When a superpower's interests - never mind world markets and the possibility of war - are on the line, precision of speech is critical.
An example of Kerry's unintended consequences? An offhand remark by the secretary, less than a year ago, saying that Syria could avoid US Arclight airstrikes if they turned in their chemical weapons propelled Vladimir Putin ...Second and fourth President and sixth of the Russian Federation and the first to remain sober. Putin is credited with bringing political stability and re-establishing something like the rule of law, which occasionally results in somebody dropping dead from polonium poisoning. Under Putin, a new group of business magnates controlling significant swathes of Russia's economy has emerged, all of whom have close personal ties to Putin. The old bunch, without close personal ties to Putin, are in jail or in exile or dead... into the role of unlikely peacemaker. He failed to do what most need to be done in a crucial situation - just read the cards.
Another Kerry failing is not using his many deputies to set the stage for his visits. In the spring, Kerry flew out on what was intended to be his signature diplomatic achievement, a peace agreement between Israel and the Paleostinians. Israel's announcement a few months later canceling a release of prisoners ended that; didn't anyone arrange ahead of time for Israel's acquiescence? The use of deputies not only lays the groundwork for a triumphant secretarial visit, it prevents such equal-scaled secretarial failures.
Kerry seems to confuse effort for outcome; the State Department obsessively tracks his travel time as if it was billable hours. His frantic diplomacy (the last two weeks for example, India for 72 hours; Africa Civil Society Forum in Washington, August 4-6; an unannounced trip to Afghanistan; a six-day trip to Myanmar, Australia, the Solomon Islands and Hawaii) leaves him little time to follow-up on past efforts. As the United States finds itself playing catch-up to Putin in the Ukraine and the Islamic State in Iraq, Kerry is literally adrift mid-Pacific.
Posted by: Fred ||
08/13/2014 00:00 ||
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#1
Iraq, Syria, Ukraine and Gaza are falling apart and John Kerry's not helping
Hmmm, Wait...I think I have some Elmer's glue in my overnight flight bag....yeah, I do.... hey can you guys wait a few days...I'll bring it over and patch things together for you....and I'll bring a few billion dollars over with me ...just to help make things better.
#9
rjs, a competent SoS would a) not have taken the job working for a sociopathic narcissist; or b) would have resigned and gone public as soons as things became clear....like Day 2 on the job.
The American left and the millennial generation in a nutshell.
Posted by: abu do you love ||
08/13/2014 17:06 Comments ||
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#12
Besoeker it would help the GOP in Illinois if Oberweis would quit running for every position that there was a chance to replace. He will never win any general election in IL so his winning a primary is just a gimmie to the DEMS.
#13
#8 Ya mean Globalist POTUS Obama's
"intentional/deliberate/wilful" multiple messes???
* FYI TOPIX > [CNS.com] KERRY: NO US COMBAT TROOPS TO IRAQ BUT WILL CONSIDER FUTURE REQUESTS FOR ADDITIONAL SECURITY [humanitarian] AID.
Roughly the best US Allies + Neutrals overseas can or should expect from the Bammer + OWG Globies.
Again, THE BAMMER HASN'T EVEN STARTED WID CHINA YET.
Lest we fergit, UNTIL OWG-NWO IS PERMANENTLY + IRREVOCABLY ESTABLISHED-N-ENTRENCHED, THE MORE-N-LONGER THE ANARCHIES + CHAOSES IN AMERIKA + AROUND THE WORLD, THE BETTER FOR THE GLOBIES.
* INDIAN DEFENCE FORUM > ISIS ON CHRISTIANS:
"THERE IS NOTHING TO GIVE THEM EXCEPT THE SWORD".
Nothing to give or do to Christians = Non-Muslims save kill-or-behead???
[Once again, 1960-70's = 2014 "INTERSTELLAR" MOVIE here].
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
Wazoo
[Dhaka Tribune] In what is almost certainly his last job in public service, Secretary of State 
...Second and fourth President and sixth of the Russian Federation and the first to remain sober. Putin is credited with bringing political stability and re-establishing something like the rule of law, which occasionally results in somebody dropping dead from polonium poisoning. Under Putin, a new group of business magnates controlling significant swathes of Russia's economy has emerged, all of whom have close personal ties to Putin. The old bunch, without close personal ties to Putin, are in jail or in exile or dead...
