The signs are there that Libya is fast following Somalia’s route to ruin as the country plunges into a conflict so complex it could take decades to fix.
Social cohesion is fragmenting on a geographic, tribal and religious basis in the midst of a concurrent three dimensional battle - all underpinned by the power and influence of oil which lubricates the funnel down which a previously stable, moderate, conservative society now spirals.
The enormous value of Libya’s oil lies at the heart of everything that has happened since the revolution. The natural tendencies towards unity, entrepreneurship and hard work, so evident in neighbouring Tunisia, evaporated instantly, as Libyans anticipated great wealth without having to lift a finger.
Battle number one, therefore, has been the battle for political control. The Muslim Brotherhood lost no time in asserting itself and undermining a bedrock of moderate, conservative politics. This led to infighting and the paralysis of government.
Battle number two has been regional conflict and the creeping tit-for-tat power struggles between militias, all sustained by government in the vain hope of controlling them. City vs city; East vs West vs South.
Within this battle is the conflict surrounding the nation’s natural assets, as powerful figures seized their opportunity to take control of state utilities as a means to dictate terms to the government and further their own agendas.
The final battle is the battle for the soul of Libya: Moderates vs extremists.
In three months, security in Benghazi went from professional, overt and reassuring to largely invisible soldiers in balaclavas to prevent identification by local Ansar Sharia extremists.
By March, Ansar Sharia were engaged in a wave of bombings and killings that brought General Hiftar and Operation Dignity into being.
Somalia concerned few until piracy started holding global trade to ransom.
Libya’s importance is more immediately concerning. Libya is Europe’s neighbour and the gateway in and out of Africa through which people, weapons, drugs and other illicit trade are beginning to pass as untroubled passage can easily be purchased through the anarchy.
It is also the lynchpin in the ever-widening global onslaught of al Qaeda franchises across the Middle East and North Africa. But for Egypt and Libya’s resilience, Osama Bin Laden’s disciples will walk freely from Lahore to Bamako, and from Mombasa to Mosul.
In Somalia, an unwavering security presence provided by the African Union, and backed by the international community, established the security scaffolding within which the UN, the EU, UK, Turkey and others led the political roadmap and began rebuilding the political machine and state institutions.
Libya, therefore, needs its oil production taken into trust with all proceeds funnelled directly into governance.
It needs a comprehensive security operation provided by African nations with the Libyan and continental interest at heart. And it needs single-minded, volunteer nations to lead an inclusive state-building and governance operation.
Libya has not yet gone past the point of no return, but it soon will if we do not act now - and act decisively.
Former Army Officer and Whitehall communications officer, the author, Richard Bailey, is a Strategic Communications Consultant who has been working as Communications Advisor to the African Union Mission in Somalia and latterly the Office of the President in Somalia between 2009 and 2013 and to the Government in Libya since November 2013.
Posted by: Steve White ||
07/29/2014 00:00 ||
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#1
Oil had nothing to do with Libya's route to ruin. The ruin began when Sprockets was overthrown.
#2
You create artificial countries out of tribes, they bound to break down eventually. A really brutal dictator can slow down the process, but nothing can stop it.
#3
The dear departed Christopher Hitchens said it best shortly before his death when he described North Africa and the Middle East as "Tribes with Flags"
I know that most Libyans I knew just wanted to get on with it and live their lives. The Moslem Brotherhood undermined the GNC while we stood by making nuisance gestures of good will and little else. Everyone from the barrista at the coffee shop I used to the Nigerian houseboy at my home knew the fate of Libya depended upon getting control of the militias and disbanding them. The GNC did neither and you had these strange Kabuki dances with a traffic accident where the Army, the local police and a group of militiamen would arrive and argue over jurisdiction while bystanders would call the ambulance and treat the injured.
Hiftar may be the last great hope of Libya to avoid the Somalia fate. I just know that a Libyan friend of mine, who was a patriot and a hero during the revolution recently moved his wife and children to the US. He told me three months ago that Libya was coming apart.
Posted by: Bill Clinton ||
07/29/2014 11:45 Comments ||
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Napoleon once ascribed his success to being able to see things as they were, and not as reflected in a fun house mirror. "The first qualification of a general-in-chief is to possess a cool head, so that things may appear to him in their true proportions and as they really are."
#4
The fact is Besoeker, they really don't like each other all that much either. When not killing the infidel, they are killing each other. It would seem they just like killing.
#13
Lots of different tribes. Palestinians are one set of tribes. Other Arab tribes go through the motions of claiming brotherhood with them against the "uppity" Jews, but to have them live next door? "They're not my tribe."
Plus they seem to make bad neighbors, as Jordan and Lebanon and Kuwait and Egypt discovered.
Posted by: James ||
07/29/2014 21:25 Comments ||
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[Ynet] Ban on flights to Israel was just another attempt by US administration to force Israel to accept difficult conditions in Gazoo.
Artificial sweet talk in public and stabs in the back behind the scenes — that's how we should describe the attitude of US President Barack Obama If you like your coverage you can keep it... 's administration towards us. From now on we can also call it "Obama's wars on Israel."
The first war was in the 2011 Arab Spring, when this American regime tried to portray the events as a sort of marvelous democratic uprising, compared to the obsolete Israeli democracy which is lagging behind. This is the way the Arab uprising was explicitly described by some members of Obama's staff, all Jews of course.
Then came reality and hit Obama in the face, as the Arabs — all of them — collapsed: Syria died, Iraq died, Libya died, and an Arab democracy remained solely in the American hallucinations.
The second war was Secretary of State John F. I was in Vietnam, you know Kerry Former Senator-for-Life from Massachussetts, self-defined war hero, speaker of French, owner of a lucky hat, conqueror of Cambodia, and current Secretary of State... 's desperate attempt in 2013 to reduce Israel's size to the point of putting it in existential danger. He forced Israel and the ineffectual Mahmoud Abbas ... a graduate of the prestigious unaccredited Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow with a doctorate in Holocaust Denial... into futile but dangerous negotiations, which evoked destructive Islamic urges and deteriorated the security situation both in the Paleostinian Authority and in Israel.
Encouraged by Kerry, the Paleostinians' imagination began going wild: They would receive Jerusalem, the return of the refugees, the Jordan Valley, lands, prisoners — and the result was arrogance, and therefore violence, defiance and self-destruction.
Of course those American diplomats rushed to blame Israel for all the world's troubles, at their master's order, but that war failed too. Israel insisted on its right to exist, and not to turn Judea and Samaria into Gazoo.
Where is that Kerry today, the man wanted to hand Judea Samaria over to Arab illusory sovereignty? Why everything that is happening in Gazoo would have happened here, and that would have been the end of Israel. Fortunately, the Gazoo war broke out now, because it illustrates what would have happened if, God forbid, we would have transferred more lands to the Arab terror.
The third war is taking place now, and we must admit that the Obama regime is not giving up: An attempt to force Israel to accept difficult conditions in the Gazoo Strip, including through the outrageous ban on flights to Israel. The ban was issued by the American FAA, a federal administration subject to the US secretary of transportation. As opposed to previous wars, in which the administration warned against an intifada or European boycott — it is now attacking Israel directly and openly, and trying to suffocate it.
This administration is closer today to Qatar and the Moslem Brüderbund or to Iran, which encourage terror, than to Israel. This is an astonishing blindness, an abandonment of the West's leadership and a cultural decline at an inconceivable magnitude.
This isn't the first time Kerry is caught smiling at Israel while inciting against it behind the scenes. But not just towards Israel. This is also a betrayal of the moderate axis of the Middle East — Egypt, Jordan and Soddy Arabia ...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual hajj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. When the oil runs out the rest of the world is going to kick sand in the Soddy national face... — as well as encouraging and rewarding jihadist terror, and a betrayal of all the real American values.
Israel will manage to free itself of this attack too, and the American curse will turn into a blessing also here — because the Paleostinian sides are collapsing as it is, and going back to being portrayed as holy warriors in the world.
But before the upcoming Congress elections, every American citizen should know how this American administration treats its only ally in the Middle East — and vote accordingly.
#1
But before the upcoming Congress elections, every American citizen should know how this American administration treats its only ally in the Middle East
This regime has plenty of 'allies' in the Middle East. Unfortunately, Israel is no longer one of them.
[The Washington Institute] On July 23, 2014, Jeffrey White and Ghaith al-Omari addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute, moderated by David Pollock. Pollock is the Institute's Kaufman Fellow and editor of Fikra Forum. White is a defense fellow at the Institute and a former senior defense intelligence officer. Omari is executive director of the American Task Force on Palestine and previously served in the Palestinian Authority government. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
#2
Nickel and diming in Gaza while the butchers bill in the Syrian Iraq conflict is running exponentially. Why the focus on the minor league? Cause State hates Israel. Meanwhile the one will go to Hollyweird to gather up some more post presidential foundation graft campaign funds. Who's the maroon?
h/t Instapundit
News of an Ebola outbreak in Western Africa has been simmering beneath the rest of the world going to hell this summer, but the news, and the disease itself, may have boiled over this weekend. The outbreak has now touched four African nations, killed one doctor tending the sick, and two infected Americans are getting treatment in Liberiaone doctor and one missionary.
#2
From the comments chain in that Instapundit was a link to the WHO summaries. It is fascinating to click through and see the epidemic unfold from the first alert in March
May 8 - no cases in Sierra Leone. WHO does not recommend travel or trade restrictions
May 30 - 50 ebola victims, 6 deaths in Sierra Leone
WHO still does not recommend travel or trade restrictions
July 27 - Nigeria has reported its first case but still...
"WHO does not recommend any travel or trade restrictions be applied to Guinea, Liberia, or Sierra Leone based on the current information available for this event."
“We are running behind Ebola. We came too late when villages already had dozen of cases and right now we don’t know where all chains of transmission are taking place” says Anja Wolz, emergency coordinator with Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) running the Ebola treatment centre in Kailahun. “Since we set up the centre 4 weeks ago, we had over 90 confirmed cases but I think it is the tip of the iceberg.”
Now i would like to know where the WHO were, given how much money the US gives the UN and WHO each year
And given it is ebola which had been spreading since February
#8
Stock up to avoid human contact for at least two weeks.
Prepared to hear the same stupid arguments, as in 80s, that diseases have rights that invalidate historically proven if draconian methods of containment.
#9
A good book, a cup of joe, dogs, cats, birds at the feeder, a couple hours on the John Deere. "Avoiding human contact;" the older I get, the more appealing the concept. I must at last, be doing something right. No one is complaining.
The Daily Mail reports here that Patrick Sawyer the plane victim who died in Nigeria where he went for a conference
Was an American citizen, and was due to return to Minnesota in August.
Meanwhile ZeroHedge here is reporting a twitter rumour that the wife and kids of US doctor Kent Brantly of Samaritan's Purse flew back home to Fort Worth, Texas, just days before he was diagnosed with ebola - meaning they should be quarantined.
I asked the Calvary Church they belong to on FB if the rumour was true. No answer.
#11
Unfortunately, She Who Must be OBEYED is returning from a visit to her son who is statione at Geilenkirchen with NATO, he's an E-3 wonk of some sort, he speaks in algorithims and C++, rarely in English...
So I have to engage in some human contact soon. I'd rather be in Kerrville right now with about 200 acres and a couple of dozen goats, some chickens, a big dog or two and my 1911.
Posted by: Bill Clinton ||
07/29/2014 11:29 Comments ||
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#12
The black plague led to an improvement in the wages of peasants since labour became scarce
inflation rose as there was more gold and silver to go round
and... Black Death profoundly altered settlement in the countryside. Catastrophic loss of population led to abandonment of less attractive fields, contraction of existing settlements, and even wholesale desertion of villages...
#13
The important change was the fall in rents which forced land-holders to have to pay people to work the land rather than swap it for some of the produce.
#14
Ebola is self-limiting for the same reasons it is so scary. There is much more to fear from a reappearance of smallpox or the continued slow growth of multiple drug resistant TB.
#15
hello bp, i am wondering what affect it will have on markets if it gets airborne
iblis: i think your logic is faulty. Ebola is not self-limiting because of it's lethality. The three-week incubation period is long enough to effectively spread it. And anyone who tells you "it's not that contagious, only the late stages, and only body fluid" is ignoring the fact that half the people who get infected are health workers who take extreme precautions.
Have you not seen them suited up in their space suits?
It is extremely contagious and extremely lethal
And the fact that Patrick Sawyer was on his way to the USA, via Nigeria for a quick conference should tell you something
Had he been infected just a couple of weeks later, he would have died in LAX or on the plane on the way there instead of in Nigeria.
That will be a whole different ball game. That nearly happened.
#16
Also you should all be aware CNN are reporting here that Samaritan's Purse are evacuating from Liberia.
So those people may be coming on home to the USA
which is exactly how these things spread. People become afraid and flee taking the virus with them.
--
"Due to the upsurge in cases of Ebola in the region, SIM and Samaritan's Purse have taken the precautionary step of mandating the evacuation of all nonessential personnel from Liberia," the statement said. "Timing, means, and place of evacuation are being decided now."
#17
CBC Canada are reporting here that another Samaritan's Purse doctor from Victoria was volunteering in Liberia treating ebola in the same team as the US victims - but has fled back to Canada and is in "self-imposed" quarantine. From this we learn the authorities are not quarantining people they are only doing it themselves. Official response: so far not very adequate to the threat
#18
Samaritans purse silences dr who returned to british columbia.
Banned him from talking to media as cbc canada found here
It is now managing its media message through headquarters.
""I regret to inform you that I am declining all requests for media interviews," the email reads. "The situation in Liberia is changing rapidly, and I don't have the most up-to-date information. Therefore, to avoid giving out any information that might not be accurate, I am referring all interview requests to our international headquarters, because staff there are closest to the situation in Liberia."
After he initially told reporters he was under self-imposed quarantine Samaritans Purse has come out denying it here
#19
Samaritans purse backpeddalling and trying to muzzle staff is a most worrying development.
They are saying they are monitoring all their evacuating staff for symptoms
That means nothing. They need to be in quarantine for 21 days.
Clearly Samaritans Purse is trying to avoid this.
You should all be concerned as these are the people who will bring ebola to the states. 2 of them have tested positive already.
When a journalist asked Samaritans Purse about when Kent Brantly's wife and child returned and if they were under quarantine, Samaritans Purse evaded the question.
#20
iblis: i think your logic is faulty. Ebola is not self-limiting because of it's lethality.
Historically, "hot" diseases like Ebola were self-limiting because you died before you could travel far enough to spread the disease. Nowadays, you can fly around the world before you have time to die from it.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
