Even the Aussie liberals follow the great lead Dubya gave them ...
KEVIN Rudd is stepping forthrightly into the shoes of Bob Hawke as he pursues the great Australian foreign policy ambition of the past 20 years - to build an Asia-Pacific community.
Like Hawke, Rudd very explicitly wants this community to include the United States. Going beyond Hawke, he also wants it to include India.
And like Hawke, Rudd has chosen Dick Woolcott as the vehicle of his ambitions. Woolcott now has a huge new task, to reform the unwieldy regional security and trade architecture of the Asia-Pacific.
Rudd's speech contains important proposals that meld his traditional view of geo-strategic security with his multilateralist view of global governance. They precede his trip at the weekend to Japan and Indonesia, Australia's most important partners in, respectively, Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia.
With Japan, most surprisingly, Rudd has flagged a move for greater security co-operation, both bilaterally and trilaterally with Australia, Japan and the US.
This seems to mark a reversal, or at least an evolution, from Rudd's position in Opposition last year. Rudd was then strongly opposed to a security treaty with Japan and opposed to the quadrilateral security mechanism involving Australia, Japan, the US and India.
Rudd is presumably not reversing himself on the quads, but intensified security co-operation with Japan is bound to annoy Beijing. That Rudd will embark on this anyway shows an admirable independence from official Chinese views and an implicit acknowledgement that neglecting and mismanaging the Japan relationship has been his Government's biggest foreign policy mistake so far.
Thus he is making a four-day trip to Japan, not only the longest trip of any Australian prime minister to Japan but precisely the same length of his trip to China.
Similarly, he is going to beef up disaster-relief co-ordination with Indonesia.
The precise terms of Woolcott's institutional reform mandate remain somewhat unclear. Woolcott, the most experienced prime ministerial envoy in Australian history and a consummate diplomat, will have partly a listening role as he tours regional capitals and consults leaders at the highest level. But he will also push the distinctive Australian idea that the most effective and important regional institution is APEC, which Woolcott did so much to create with Bob Hawke in 1989.
Sensibly, Rudd has not laid down too prescriptive a model for how he wants regional architecture to develop. And, characteristically, he foreshadows another conference on the matter.
One logical implication of Rudd's position is that APEC must expand to include India -- Rudd is explicit that the new regional architecture must embrace the South Asian colossus.
Posted by: Steve White ||
06/05/2008 00:00 ||
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#1
Obama made a devils bargain with a number of racists to establish his own street credentials in the rough and tumble world of Chicago politics. He now finds that what started his career could well end it.
Our Washington sources report that president George W. Bush is closer than ever before to ordering a limited missile-air bombardment of the IRGC-al Qods Brigades installations in Iran. It is planned to target training camps and the munitions factories pumping fighters, missiles and roadside bombs to the Iraqi insurgency, Lebanese Hizballah and Palestinian terrorist groups in Gaza.
Iran is geared up for counteraction. US intelligence estimates that Tehrans counteraction will likewise be on a limited scale and therefore any US-Iranian military encounter will not be allowed to explode into a major confrontation.
Because this US assault is not planned to extend to Irans nuclear installations, Tehran is not expected to hit back at distant American targets in the Persian Gulf or at Israel.
DEBKAfiles Iranian sources report, however, that Irans military preparations for countering an American attack are far broader than envisaged in Washington. Tehran would view a US attack on the IRGC bases as a casus belli and might react in ways and on a scale unanticipated in Washington. Two days ago, Irans defense minister Gen. Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar warned: Irans Armed Forces are fully prepared to counter any military attack with any intensity and to make the enemy regret initiating any such incursions.
According to DEBKAfiles Iranian and military sources, the IRGC had by mid-May completed their preparations for a US missile, air or commando assault on their command centers and bases in reprisal for Iranian intervention in Iraq.
These preparations encompass al Qods arms, most of them undercover, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Sudan. At home, the Revolutionary Guards have evacuated their key bases together with manpower and equipment to regular army sites or temporary quarters in villages located in remote corners of eastern and northern Iran.
Their main headquarters and central training center at the Imam Ali University in northern Tehran are deserted except for sentries on the gates.
So firing cruise missiles at them would be like trying to hit tents in a desert. I hope we're smarter than that ...
Indoctrination seminaries and dormitories hosting fighting strength in the holy town of Qom are empty, as is the Manzariyah training center east of the capital.
Deserted too is the main training camp near Isfahan for insurgents and terrorists from Iraq, Afghanistan, Baluchistan, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. It is here that they take courses from friendly al Qods training staff on how to sabotage strategic targets such as routes, bridges and military installations, and the activation of the extra-powerful roadside bombs (EFPs) which have had such a deadly effect on American troops in Iraq. Yeah, the Pentagon is notorious for under-estimating the potential for counter-attack by the enemy. Uh-huh.
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
06/05/2008 13:59 Comments ||
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#3
Yeah, if you read it in DEBKA, that is a general indication that it is false. But even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and again. If they keep "predicting" enough times, they are bound to be right someday.
#4
Oh, I don't know. They're like Hawai'ian weather forecasters - correct exactly 50% of the time so you can't play the odds. Once a year though they do nail it exactly.
#5
Iran and several Islamist groups have already indic that any attack by the USA agz Iran invites retaliation "by any means neccessary", including but not limited to BY PROXY TERROR.
Presuming a POTUS OBAMA follows through on his promise to unilaterally reduce the US milfor presence in Iraq or to withdraw completely from same, OBAMA > SADR's MAHDI ARMY, etc. MILITIAS > WOULD BE THE VIETNAM WAR-ERA EQUIV OF LEAVING THE NVA-VC "IN PLACE" INSIDE SOUTH VIETNAM = IRAQ. We all know what happened ala FALL OF SAIGON.
* IRAQI POLITICIANS > HAVE CALLED FOR ALL US TROOPS TO LEAVE IRAQ COMPLETELY AS PART OF ANY FORMAL US-IRAQ PACT.
IOW, ISLAMIST IRAN + ARMED INSURGENT MILITIAS WILL HOLD ALL THE ACES.
Ahmadinejad's past history makes it even more relevant to believe his threats.
In just three years Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's controversial president, has become a household name. It is worth noting that for a man whose name is mentioned so much, not much is known about him and his past. Indeed, even his official biography lacks a lot of information. But grasping who is Ahmadinejad and where he comes from proves how dangerous this man really is.
Ahmadinejad was born in 1956 to a poor family. In his just-released book, "The Bomb and the Koran," French journalist Michel Taubmann masterly delved into Ahmadinejad's biography. Taubmann unveils many unknown facts about the current Iranian president: for instance, his mother's name is Sayeed Khanom, which indicates that she is a descendant of the Prophet; but his father's pedigree is much less glorious. His name was originally Sabarian, which is most certainly an Arabic name (an insult for most Iranians).
Interestingly his father whose first name was Ahmad changed his family name to Ahmadinejad, which could translate in "of the race of the prophet" since Ahmad was one of the multiple names used by the prophet.
At the early age of seven, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had a revelation in the person of Ayatollah Khomeini.
So, unsurprisingly, in 1979, at the onset of the Islamic Revolution, he became a member of the radical Office for Strengthening Unity (OSU) that was established by Ayatollah Beheshti (a key Khomeini collaborator) to fight off the Mujahedeen e-Khalq group.
While reports on Ahmadinejad's presence among the captors of the U.S. embassy in Tehran remain so far somewhat unconfirmed, what is almost sure is that Ahmadinejad had a hand in the planning of the operation. He also allegedly suggested storming the Soviet embassy at the same time as the United States.
#3
"At the early age of seven, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had a revelation in the person of Ayatollah Khomeini."
And every day since that fateful day Mahmoud has faithfully been known to pull the wings off flies and set aflame the tails of fury kittens and puppies.
In recent years, the Salafi movement has seen the emergence of a new conception of, and basis for, religious authority. In the past, religious authority within this movement stemmed primarily from the scholarly credentials and reputation of the individual. This changed with the advent of a new group, namely the jihadi Salafi camp. Characterized by an extremist militant orientation, this group condoned the 9/11 attacks as well as acts of terrorism within Saudi Arabia itself (including the 2003 bombing in Riyadh) - a stance which was widely condemned by the non-jihadi Salafi scholars. Though the members of this movement could not compete with the traditional Salafi scholars in erudition or devoutness, they nevertheless wished to gain religious authority. Consequently, they sought a new basis for religious authority that would include them within its scope.
To this end, the jihadists began promoting the idea that charisma - a personal trait that endows one with extraordinary and even supernatural qualities - was also a basis for authority on religious and social matters. Moreover, the jihadists modified the prevailing concept of religious authority by presenting the mujahideen as infallible (ma'sumin) - a quality which, in the Sunni Islamic tradition, is generally attributed only to the prophets. By describing the mujahideen as infallible, the jihadi Salafis removed them from the earthly realm of learning and erudition - a sphere monopolized by the traditional Salafi scholars - and elevated them to the level of individuals blessed with supernatural spiritual powers. Characterized thus, the mujahideen not only become objects of admiration, but can claim socio-religious legitimacy despite the scholars' condemnation of their ideology and activities. Furthermore, they can advance innovative legal arguments to justify their jihad.
Ironically, however, this notion of charisma-based authority has also become a source of friction within the jihadi movement, which undermines its unity and in fact threatens to plunge it into anarchy.
Posted by: anonymous5089 ||
06/05/2008 07:45 ||
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#1
It kind of fits - PHDs in Physics in Pakiwakiland for how many Jinn can fit on the head of a pin and all that crap!
Well, from my sources in Thailand and elsewhere it seems that Viktor Bout, weapons merchant extraordinaire, is worth quite a bit to the Russians.
Bout, in prison in Thailand awaiting extradition to the United State, may not make it back, despite having a long history of providing weapons to terrorists, criminals and some of the world's most vicious thugs, such as Charles Taylor, Laurent Kabila, the Taliban, the FARC and hosts of others.
The reason he may not make it back is that the Russians are far more afraid of his standing trial than was originally anticipated. After several diplomatic efforts to get Bout out of prison and back to Russia, the Russian government, or at least its military establishment, has decided to let some money and hardware do the talking.
My sources tell me the Russian ambassador in Thailand has met several times with the Thai prime minister, and has offered sweet heart deals on weapons systems, including fighter jets, in exchange for Bout.
In addition, the Russians are offering sweet heart gas and oil deals to sweeten the pot, which is a significant offer given the current market price of these fuels.
The question is, why would Bout be so valuable to the Russians, and what is it that they fear he could or would say in a court?
The most obvious answer is that he is deeply in bed and protected by the Russian military establishment and its intelligence services.
#1
These efforts to prevent his extradition to the U.S. to stand trial tell us what we need to know. The Russians have been up to their old tricks all along, I doubt they ever stopped.
#4
This makes me think of the reports I read/heard about a few years back that were trying to link Russian intelligence services with several terrorist proxy groups, including al Qaeda. The macro of it all was that during the Cold War, it was the policy (covert, naturally) of the KGB and other groups within the Soviet military/intelligence juggernaut, to encourage, foment, and in some cases materially support various terrorist groups around the globe that were hostile to the West.
Cunning as it was (or is), the idea was to create so much noise and distraction (and not a little bit of trouble) for the West so that they would take their eye off the USSR, and with any luck, weaken the West by attrition to a point where the USSR could step in when the situation was to it's greatest advantage.
This strategy may (and I stress may) have suffered a temporary setback as a result of the fall of the Soviet Union, yet despite that there's really no reason to think the military/intelligence apparatus (of which Putin was a part of) would abandon this strategy. Rather, in an effort to keep the US occupied while they regained their strength (which they've certainly been doing), they would most likely expand their efforts (enter al Qaeda) with the luxury of plausible deniability (as long as they kept their noses clean and covered up their tracks).
Of course, this is all very circumspect and based entirely on rumor and inneundo at this point, with a fair share of conspiracy theory thrown in. But the dots are certainly there to connect, if one is so inclined.
Perhaps comrade Bout is tied to this strategy in a tactical capacity and thus could tell us a lot about what the Russians have really been up to. Or not.
#5
There have been several claims by russian or polish dissidents that al zawahiri had been turned a long time ago by the soviet secret service, and that he is now a russian asset. Frankly, I wouldn't be too shocked to learn al qaida and assorted muslim orgs are, if not a proxy, at least useful idiots for russia and/or china. And the same goes for iran and its clients.
#8
How does Chechnia (or for that matter Bosnia) fit this theory, anonymous5089
G(r)om, I wish I was more of a reader, or at least, one that can retain what he reads; basically, about chechnya, from what I've read over the years, my view is that the independentist side had been at least partly controlled by the ruskies, and that while a nightmare for the russian army, both of the chechyan wars were very profitable ventures for the mobsters who run russia (putin and the secret services included), were politically expededient (if you want to wage war against the USA through islamic terror, why not fight your own WOT to disculpate yourself), and that many terror operations actually were false-flags ops (to borrow a term so loved by the 9/11 troother); for example, I'm 100% convinced that the dramatic flat complexes bombing that started the 2nd checnhya war were done by putin.
#10
Now that I think about it, this all came up when that former KGB operative was assassinated via radioactive poisoning. Apparently, some people thought he knew too much about Russia's involvement with muslim radicals.
#15
"Deeply in bed and protected by the Russian military establishment and intelligence services" > IOW, ITS PROB SAFER FOR PAULA ABDUL NOT TO REMEMBER, AND TO FORGET = "PRETEND" SHE DOESN'T KNOW.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
Our Washington sources report that president George W. Bush is closer than ever before to ordering a limited missile-air bombardment of the IRGC-al Qods Brigades installations in Iran. It is planned to target training camps and the munitions factories pumping fighters, missiles and roadside bombs to the Iraqi insurgency, Lebanese Hizballah and Palestinian terrorist groups in Gaza.
