[Yemen Post] Over the last year of observation, I am convinced that a Sunni-Zaidi war is what some (outsiders) are hoping to happen in Yemen, not now, but in the long run.
Some gain automatically when Arab states busy themselves in anything except developing a nation. The more conflicts, the more years are lost without Arabs building. Arabs, with the help of the west, will in the same time busy themselves killing one another, like what is happening in Iraq.
The Houthis blamed the U.S. ambassador in Yemen for standing behind the killing of 25 Houthis by a jacket wallah, while the ambassador denied the accusations. What the Houthis meant was that the newly established Al-Qaeda branch in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is a tool in the hands of western intelligence, and its duty is to cause more conflicts and deaths within Arab nations. In the same time, to make people picture AQAP as a threat to the west, by bringing up many failed attempts against western interests in the media. One example could be the failed attack on a British convoy that did not cause even scratches, but was used to market AQAP as an enemy of the west. The parcel bombs are another example. Not one person has been blamed for the parcel bombs, while it is impossible to send a package from Yemen through UPS or Fed Ex without photo copying the personal ID of the exact sender. So, who benefits from the parcel bombs, AQAP or western intelligence, or are they the same one way or the other?
Houthis have by time proved to us that they are accurate in their wording, but were they accurate when they blamed the U.S. ambassador for the attacks?
Should we believe U.S. ambassador or the Houthi? After the Wikileaks reports, I would think twice before answering that question.
Posted by: Fred ||
12/10/2010 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
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Top|| File under: al-Qaeda in Arabia
#1
"Should we believe U.S. ambassador or the Houthi?"
Howzabout neither?
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut ||
12/10/2010 0:53 Comments ||
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#3
A nice variation on the Saudi theory of traffic accidents: Were the foreigner not in the country, he would not have been on the road to be hit by the speeding Saudi. Therefore it is the foreigner's fault, and he can damned well go to jail for it, after paying repair and medical costs.
There is a real possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula. The cause is not a second North Korean invasion of the South like in June 1950, which was successfully deterred by U.S. and South Korean forces. The danger stems from two combustible trends: A North Korea which mistakenly believes it is invulnerable to retaliation due to its nascent nuclear capabilities, and a South Korea that feels increasingly compelled to react with military force to the string of ever more brash provocations like the artillery barrage on Yeonpyeong Island.
The shelling of Yeongpyeong had for South Korea much broader effects than the partial evacuation of its 1,600 residents. It forced a temporary closure of Incheon International Airport, the sprawling ultramodern hub of air traffic throughout Asia that stands only 122 km from the shelled island. The artillery flew only days after world leaders converged on Seoul for the G20 summit, undoubtedly causing world leaders to think twice about the next trip given the unpredictability of the North. These periodic crises undercut South Korea's future bids to host global mega events like the World Cup or the Winter Olympics. The Norks are greatly enjoying making the South lose face like this. Obviously this is a huge thing in any Asian culture. Norks feel aggrieved that their earlier provocations were defeated, and that these attacks are just revenge. The fact that they instigated the incidents is lost on any shame culture.
President Lee Myung-bak is forced to respond with calm and measured actions every time the North provokes. The pat responses to the island shelling and the sinking of the Cheonan -- of enhanced military readiness, exercises with the U.S., and diplomatic sanctions -- do not work. The reality is that Pyongyang's provocations are getting more deadly, and that Seoul's strengths are its vulnerabilities: The more affluent, educated, and cosmopolitan South is far more wedded to the peaceful status quo than its northern neighbor, and therefore is forced to tolerate provocations even if they kill soldiers or civilians. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il sees this vulnerability and will continue to exploit it to extort concessions from the U.S. and South Korea. This is a losing strategic spiral for the South. It will soon feel compelled to break it.
Continued on Page 49
#2
Since the Nork threat to attack Seoul with artillery is their primary menace, it should also be what the South plans to defeat. This would be with devastating counterbattery fire.
Since the northern tubes are emplaced in rock, a typical artillery response will likely take too long. So what the South could do is the unexpected.
I would suggest putting up some fake buildings that contain 16" naval guns. These munitions are so powerful that they could take out more than one of these rock emplaced Nork guns with a single round, as well as neutralize one or two more.
Because they would know their target's locations, their rate of fire would be as soon as they loaded and adjusted.
At a couple million dollars a pop, plus the fake building and maintenance, it would very cost effective bang for the buck.
#3
The South should build several million DVD players with an non-removable DVD, long life rechargable battery and screen. They should be drone dropped over all the artillery positions. The DVD should contain videos on a day in the life of a ROK NCO and his family, a day in the life of a mid-level officer and his family, how to navigate the Seoul mall and a pitch from the President of South Korea offering them a comparable position in the ROK Army if they refuse to shell the South.
And a package of really good food.
Then cut their lines of communications with Pyongyang and re-establish the DMZ about 40+ miles north of its present position.
#6
#5 Moose, is there anyone left who can manufacture a 16 inch gun or would you take them off of the Iowa, Wisconsin and New Jersey?
Posted by: rwv
Actually, any really decent industrial machine shop can turn out a 16" cannon, and SKor has a number of companies that could manufacture them. While we haven't built one for 30 years, the capability is still there. There are also several dozen stored here and there, dating back to the 1950's and 1960's. The problem is ammunition - the facilities to manufacture ammunition no longer exist, and would have to be built from scratch. Again, both the US and SKor could do so in a pinch. It would be easier to design a warhead for the MLRS the Koreans already have that could take out the NKor artillery. Again, the capability exists, only the will to do so is lacking. A few more attacks from the North, and the will will be there. Also, I think Japan must be getting really edgy about what's happening in the North, and may pass a few amendments to their pacifist constitution in the very near future. Little Kim may come to hate his father for the trouble he's brought upon the North.
Posted by: Old Patriot ||
12/10/2010 17:14 Comments ||
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#7
the facilities to manufacture ammunition no longer exist, and would have to be built from scratch.
During the second world war, Procter & Gamble turned some of their factory lines from filling Tide detergent boxes to filling artillery shells... or whatever it is that gunpowder is poured into. It's apparently not a difficult change-over, although I'm sure the guys on the line did a serious clean-out at the beginning and end. ;-)
AKA "SHOOT FIRST, ASK/EXPLAIN LATER" = new ROK Defense Big Boss says US-ROK ROES does not prevent the ROK from specifically finding + specifically destroying Any + All Sources of DPRK MilStrikes into the South.
* BHARAT RAKSHAK > [Times of India] COMMUNIST CHINA ON A MOSQUES-BUILDING SPREE. China's 20.0Milyuhn Muslim minority increasingly are moving to coastal areas for jobs + livelihood, hence are DEMANDING MORE MUSLIM-CENTRIC REQUIREMENTS E.G. DEDIC PLACES OF WORSHIP = MOSQUES, GREATER AVAILABILITY OF SPECIAL ISLAMIC FOODS, + DEDIC ISLAMIC GRAVEYARDS, ETC. FROM LOCAL COMMIE CPC AUTHORITIES.
#2
FYI, yes I know Colonel Bay wrote the editorial, but Jim's imprimateur is on anything that is put up there like that.
The conclusion Col Bay reaches is the same I have heard in certain circles, and is an asessment I agree with:
"Assange and ideologues like him promote an ignorant and destructive solipsism that has nothing to do with peace and justice but a lot to do with sociopathic narcissism."
Dead on. The costs, in terms of trust, caused by the release of these documents and the destruction of diplomatic capability in the US, and ironically, China, is severe regarding the Korean situation.
Assange, with his arrogant eurosocialist hatred of US capitalism, is so monomaniacally obsessed with damaging the US and capitalism (all in the name of socialism) that he has placed the world economy at risk of a world-wide depression with another Korean war, and worse yet, he has put millions of lives at risk in Korea by destroying much of the US and Chinese diplomats' capability to work together to prevent a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula. Yes that's right: he has INCREASED the likelihood of overt war, covert actions and nuclear war, by damaging the very mechanisms western society and the Chinese government have that can prevent such things.
Assange, and those supporting him like Anon1, you have done the unconscionable: You have increased the probability of a war, a nuclear war. If such a war comes, you should be hanged as part of justice for the many Koreans that will die due to your ego-maniacal stupidity.
Like I said before: people like you are the reason people like me (military) end up bleeding (or dead).
Stop thinking you know so much -- you definitively do NOT. Your arrogance and stupidity will get others killed.
A respected author tagging Assange as a sociopath--high time the truth about Assange is leaked, while we're all showing our cards under duress compliments of the little turd.
The China face culture part is bad, because China may have to make concessions to the Nork spoiled children on account of the spoiled child remark. The potential for disaster is enormous.
Also, the inter-dependance of all countries and getting along with one another is not something I like to see a 39 year old malcontent with hacking skill toying with, legal or illegal, it just is not wholesome or right.
Assange the mover and shaker, the liberal face of wikileaks, the poster boy for leftist wingnuts and horny women.
Posted by: Fire and Ice ||
12/10/2010 10:16 Comments ||
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#4
Interesting article; it's pretty preachy but it's shed some light on the more extreme viewpoints for me.
People have been throwing around that Assange is an anti-american socialist quite a bit, but I haven't seen any articles that really back up those claims; does anyone have a link?
Here's a link to an analysis of one of his statements which analyzes it better than I can; https://zunguzungu.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/julian-assange-and-the-computer-conspiracy-%E2%80%9Cto-destroy-this-invisible-government%E2%80%9D/#
I wish he would stop posting US classified intel, but as long as there's an internet there will be leaks of this nature; if they weren't on WikiLeaks, they would be circulating on torrent sites all over. Focusing on WikiLeaks is ignoring the real problem of how the heck they even got such a trove of classified intel in the first place. The fact that there's no media uproar over the people leaking the info in the first place is what makes me angry; it cant have all been Bradley Manning. It's especially bad because I saw stuff from the DoD even before he posted the helicopter vid that was talking about what would happen if WikiLeaks did post classified intel.
#2
Because she saw both herself and him as elites.
Anyone can make a mistake. Or two ...
Posted by: Steve White ||
12/10/2010 17:37 Comments ||
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#3
Reminds me of the zealotry of 'former' smokers as opposed to those of us who've never smoked. They wrap their contrition into their enthusiasm to enlighten the rest of us of its evils.
#1
Not to worry -- Ben Bernanke has a secret plan to palm off hundreds of billions of worthless mortgage backed securities owned by the Federal Reserve to pay off the UN's demands. It's all good.
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Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
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