(CBSDFW.COM) -- As of today, 48 people are now no longer on the Ebola watch list.
After showing no signs of the virus since last being in contact with Thomas Duncan, they are the first to complete the 21-day surveillance period. Among the 48 is Duncan’s fiance, Louise Troh, and her family.
The Dallas family has been living in isolation since Duncan was diagnosed with Ebola.
#1
Now that we know they were utterly confused ignorant about control protocol and transmission we should believe they are dead accurate about incubation?
#2
I think it would be worthwhile to test these people's blood for Ebola related antibodies, Ebola proteins and Ebola RNA.
Did some of them go through an asymptomatic, mild infection? If not why weren't they infected even though they were living in the same apartment as a man who was violently sick and highly contagious?
#3
There's a lot of unwarranted assumptions about incubation period going on here. Just because something hasn't been observed doesn't mean it can't happen.
Posted by: ed in texas ||
10/20/2014 7:34 Comments ||
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#4
Typhoid Mary had no outward symptoms displayed as she went about her business.
#6
Even if we got lucky with Duncan, what about the others who are still coming?
Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305
Yes, Champ will see to it. He will import as many as he can. All part of his Weapons of Mass Distraction program. While Fox news is busy with ebola, they're letting other offenses slide.
#7
There's a poser on facebook from "before it was news" claiming the Ebola outbreak was planned as early as 2008 and shows a picture of thousands of "casket liners" stockpiled as evidence. The Nutballery is expanding.
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
10/20/2014 13:23 Comments ||
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The U.S. military is forming a 30-person medical team to prepare to respond to additional cases of Ebola in the United States, the Pentagon announced Sunday. The "expeditionary medical support team" will consist of 20 critical care nurses, five doctors trained in infectious disease, and five trainers in infectious disease protocols, Pentagon Press Secretary Rear Admiral John Kirby said in a statement.
As my friends in the hood like to say, "shit just got real..."
"In response to a request from the Department of Health and Human Services -- and as an added prudent measure to ensure our nation is ready to respond quickly, effectively, and safely in the event of additional Ebola cases in the United States -- Secretary Hagel today ordered his Northern Command Commander, Gen. Chuck Jacoby, to prepare and train a 30-person expeditionary medical support team that could, if required, provide short-notice assistance to civilian medical professionals in the United States," Kirby said.
The team will begin specialized training in infection control and the use of personal protective equipment within the next week, at Fort Sam Houston.
"Upon conclusion of training, team members will remain in a 'prepare to deploy' status for 30 days, available to be sent to other [contiguous United States] locations as required," Kirby said. "They will not be sent to West Africa or elsewhere overseas and will be called upon domestically only if deemed prudent by our public health professionals."
Up to 4,000 American troops are being deployed to assist in responding to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, but they are not involved in direct patient care.
The Pentagon team formation follows last week's Ebola diagnosis of a second health care professional in Dallas, the third confirmed case of the virus in the United States, causing public concern about the spread of the disease to reach new heights.
Posted by: Steve White ||
10/20/2014 00:00 ||
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#1
Question: Why not private sector doctors working with the department of HHS? Is the commander in chief turning the most lethal force for freedom in the world's mission into just another United Nations humanitarian intervention group?
#2
#1 Question: Why not private sector doctors working with the department of HHS?
The initial "team" has now been assembled. The quarantine location will be announced at a later date. If you see a sudden movement to release current occupants, you might wish to put GITMO at the top of the possibles list.
#4
The team will begin specialized training in infection control and the use of personal protective equipment within the next week.
Instead of distribution and auditing of immediate protocol refreshment training for those experienced civilian professionals already trained (more than 30), they propose "expeditionary medical support".
#5
Is the commander in chief turning the most lethal force for freedom in the world's mission into just another United Nations humanitarian intervention group?
Cause civies can quit. Say 'NO'. The uniform military are under separate law from civies. (That's why they're different from police and firemen.) They can't say no. Well, not till Nero does something that really really POs the Praetorians if 4000 years of human history is any warning indication.
#7
The job really seems more suited to the US Public Health Service, which has both commissioned and non-commissioned medical personnel that could be prepared to go on domestic missions. I'm not aware of any enlisted-class USPHS personnel, though.
"They can't say no" -- this isn't wartime, so why can't the uniformed personnel simply resign if they don't like an assignment?
#8
And while Bambi brings the Africans into the U.S for treatment, it was disclosed yesterday that any military member that was diagnosed would be quarantined in Liberia.
What is wrong with that picture???? Could it be that out of sight, out of news bites mind is at play?
#9
"They can't say no" -- this isn't wartime, so why can't the uniformed personnel simply resign if they don't like an assignment?
Never had required 'wartime'. Check Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution - Congress shall have power...To make rules for the government and regulation of the land and naval forces; Even the founders understood 'military' was fundamentally different from 'civilian'.
They exercise that power through Title 10 USC, subsection commonly referred to the Uniform Code of Military Conduct. Check out subchapter 10. Punitive Articles.
ARTICLE 85. DESERTION
ARTICLE 86. ABSENCE WITHOUT LEAVE
ARTICLE 87. MISSING MOVEMENT
ARTICLE 88. CONTEMPT TOWARD OFFICIALS
ARTICLE 89 DISRESPECT TOWARD SUPERIOR COMMISSIONED OFFICER
ARTICLE 90. ASSAULTING OR WILLFULLY DISOBEYING SUPERIOR COMMISSIONED OFFICER.
ARTICLE 91. INSUBORDINATE CONDUCT TOWARD WARRANT OFFICER, NONCOMMISSIONED OFFICER, OR PETTY OFFICER
You're in and under the law till the contract is up or you're released from the contract by the Secretary (of the branch services).
[Breitbart] Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, writes in the New York Times:
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has the potential to alter history as much as any plague has ever done.
There have been more than 4,300 cases and 2,300 deaths over the past six months. Last week, the World Health Organization warned that, by early October, there may be thousands of new cases per week in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Nigeria. What is not getting said publicly, despite briefings and discussions in the inner circles of the world’s public health agencies, is that we are in totally uncharted waters and that Mother Nature is the only force in charge of the crisis at this time.
There are two possible future chapters to this story that should keep us up at night.
The first possibility is that the Ebola virus spreads from West Africa to megacities in other regions of the developing world. This outbreak is very different from the 19 that have occurred in Africa over the past 40 years. It is much easier to control Ebola infections in isolated villages. But there has been a 300 percent increase in Africa’s population over the last four decades, much of it in large city slums. What happens when an infected person yet to become ill travels by plane to Lagos, Nairobi, Kinshasa or Mogadishu — or even Karachi, Jakarta, Mexico City or Dhaka?
As if we needed yet another reason to avoid large urban areas.
#1
No need to panic. What is going to happen is really clear. When infected people show up in new places what will happen is exactly what happened in Nigeria and Senegal and Dallas. A few cases snuffed out by modern epidemiological techniques.
And in the few countries already overwhelmed by the epidemic, the people will continue to suffer until the majority become immune to the virus, which seems likely to happen in six months to a year's time.
#2
Another aspect of Ebola hardly known to anyone. There have been cases of contacts of Ebola in Africa that never got sick -- however, their blood eventually showed the same antibodies to Ebola as the blood of those who have survived a clinical Ebola infection, i.e. in infectious disease-speak, they became seropositive for Ebola. One prospective study of 24 contacts followed over time found that 11 of the 24 developed Ebola antibodies although they never got sick. Blood tests done over the course of their observation showed characteristic changes of inflammation and modulators of inflammation like cortisol, similar but less severe than what would be seen in patients suffering from Ebola. These observed patients never tested + for Ebola virus itself, only for the changes of inflammation and immune modulators, followed by development of antibodies to Ebola, similar to that shown by those who survived clinical Ebola illness. It is not known if the 11/24 who turned seropositive are actually immune to Ebola, but it seems likely. Recent Lancet article stated "forecasts that ignore naturally acquired immunity from asymptomatic infections overestimate incidence late in epidemics" by a substantial amount. If these asymptomatic survivors prove to be immune to the current Ebola strain, they might safely work with sick Ebola patients.
#3
One prospective study of 24 contacts followed over time found that 11 of the 24 developed Ebola antibodies although they never got sick.
Interesting. My feeling was natural immunity (not acquired incidentally. Almost certainly genetic) was up towards 50% in these populations.
What this means is transmission rates will be much higher outside of these populations. Onward transmission rates around 4 to 5, rather than the current 1.8 to 2.
Then there is the potential for asymptomatics to be infectious.
I Doubt we will see sustained spread in London or New York. Cairo, Karachi and Jo'burg are a different matter.
#4
Appears more than a few countries in the region have become a bit concerned regarding Ebola, borders, and foreign travel:
>According to International SOS, these African nations "have implemented Ebola-related travel restrictions":
•Gambia has banned the entry of flights from Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone.
•Gabon has banned the entry of flights and ships from countries affected by Ebola.
•Senegal has banned flights from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
•Cameroon has banned flights to and from Nigeria.Chad has suspended all flights from Nigeria.
•Nigeria has suspended flights to the country operated by Gambian national carrier Gambia Bird.
•Côte d'Ivoire has now lifted the ban on passenger flights from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
These airlines "have restricted flights to Ebola-affected countries":
•Air France suspended flights to Sierra Leone from 28 August.
•The Togo-based carrier Asky Airlines has suspended flights to and from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
•Arik Air (Nigeria), Gambia Bird and Kenya Airways have suspended services to Liberia and Sierra Leone.
•British Airways has extended their suspension of flights to Liberia and Sierra Leone until 31 December.
•Emirates Airlines has suspended flights to Guinea.
•Korean Air suspended flights to and from Kenya from 20 August.
•Senegal Airlines has suspended flights to and from Conakry (Guinea) until further notice.
#6
The unknown here is 'subclinical infection'. How much exposure starts the body to manufacture antibodies, versus what level of exposure overwhelms the system.
And it's entirely that the 'resistance spectrum' included people at one end of the curve that are naturally resistant, and at the other those that don't have a snowball's chance.
Posted by: ed in texas ||
10/20/2014 7:41 Comments ||
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#7
I wonder if there is a racial component to the resistance spectrum.
i.e. people in West Africa are already on the road to natural selection. Whereas whites in Europe and America are in the "snowball's chance" category.
Posted by: frozen al ||
10/20/2014 10:14 Comments ||
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#8
If we keep catching it, one at a time, we will learn to live with it. Like living with a wasps nest near by, killing one wasp at a time. My real concern is not with medical professionals and the middle class. If it hits the inner city of Detroit, NYC, LA and places like the Appalachians where they will not get medical attention soon enough it could be ugly.
Posted by: 49 Pan ||
10/20/2014 11:44 Comments ||
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#10
"the potential for asymptomatics to be infectious"
Early in the course of Ebola outbreaks, contract tracing is much easier to do & much more reliable. The epidemiology research nearly always traces back to symptomatic sick Ebola patients triggering another round of infections. If the asymptomatically Ebola-infected had been contagious, there would have been outbreaks of infections with no apparent traceable source. It is possible that there are 2 or more different strains of Ebola going on at the same time, one that produces immunity without illness and the other that produces 70% mortality followed by immunity in survivors -- but we simply don't know. "Typhoid Mary" was detected wherever she went by outbreaks of typhoid fever among the families she worked for. She was detected by contact tracing & then specifically by being test for the infectious agent.
#11
If there were such a person as an "Ebola Mary", who had a long-term ability to transmit Ebola without getting sick herself, the path she would leave behind would be unmistakable. This hasn't been observed anywhere.
#13
"Typhoid Mary" was white and before the system rigged itself to ignore certain 'protected groups' from reporting. The resistance to a travel ban is enough to tell you what would happen if such a scenario would play out today with members of such 'protected groups'.
#15
#7 I wonder if there is a racial component to the resistance spectrum.
Of course there is.
But I expect denial of this fact to kill more than a few people.
It is possible that there are 2 or more different strains of Ebola going on at the same time, one that produces immunity without illness and the other that produces 70% mortality followed by immunity in survivors
If there are multiple strains, it would have been picked up by testing.
-----
Saw a report the other day, where a scientist said we are seeing much higher levels of virus shedding . I assume relative to early outbreaks but this wasn't stated.
1) if your test will do so. PCR (DNA based assay) is pretty good about that if a) some of your primers are pan-sensitive to all the strains of Ebola. If a strain has a mutation in the region of the primer itself the reaction won't work. b) some of your primers are specific to different strains. c) you have primers for all the strains. You can pick up new strains, but it gets complicated.
Other tests, such as ELISA (protein antibody based assay) won't pick up different strains unless your antibody particularly discriminates one strain from another; some do but field testing generally uses a less discriminatory, pan-sensitive antibody that would lump all strains together. In the field you generally want to know if your patient is positive.
2) if you're looking. In the field (be it in the Liberian bush or a Dallas ICU) you generally aren't.
Posted by: Steve White ||
10/20/2014 20:55 Comments ||
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#17
If there are multiple strains, it would have been picked up by testing.
They don't seem to be testing very many asymptomatic people. That's the only way you can find those with Ebola who feel fine. That, or checking all contacts for seroconversion later. I don't know how much of that is being done, either.
#18
What happens is that Ebola and Marburg, the evil twin of Ebola, are essentially endemic in these areas. A large proportion of the population has been exposed at levels below the threshold for infection for long periods of time and the body has developed immunity. I would venture the guess that most of the cases of Ebola are among individuals with suppressed immune systems or overworked immune systems fighting some other persistent infection that allows Ebola to sneak in the door.
The gentleman who died in Dallas is probably not native to the region he visited and did not develop an immune response. Almost certainly, Ebola is going to be much nastier in regions in which it is not endemic, such as the Western Hemisphere or Asia. If Ebola makes the jump into Sub Sahara Africa, it will decimate the local populations.
For me the best defense is to close the borders for a while and let the epidemic run its course in Africa. All epidemics peak and then decline as the populace develops immunity and the pathogen goes dormant to mutate and try again.
[Ynet] Spain says a test has shown a nursing assistant who became infected with Ebola is now clear of all traces of the virus.
Good news. Let's all hope she continues her recovery.
A blood test has revealed that Teresa Romero's immune system has eliminated the virus from her body, according to a statement released by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's office late Sunday.
FTA: "If any American soldiers in Liberia contract the deadly Ebola virus, they will be quarantined, stabilized, and evacuated to a medical facility for treatment, said the Ebola mission commander, adding that the U.S. military hospitals that will admit potentially infected troops have not yet been identified."
#2
I hope and pray we do not have to discover whether the headline was "misleading" or not.
Landstuhl Regional Medical Center only about 5k's from Ramstein Air Base is the logical choice. Have the Germans decided they do not want the threat of ebola landing on their soil ?
[The Hill] Facebook on Friday criticized the Drug Enforcement Administration for creating a fake account using a woman's name and photos without her permission.
The DEA's actions are a "knowing and serious breach" of the social media giant's policies, chief security officer Joe Sullivan wrote in a letter to agency Administrator Michele Leonhart. Anyone still believe these social media outlets are harmless. When Facebook kicks the Federal government off their website let me know...
h/t Gates of Vienna
Ebola is now spreading so fast in West Africa, and causing so much death so quickly, that the regional economy is on the verge of a total collapse. The Washington Post (WP) reports that Liberia, the hardest-hit Ebola country, is now teetering over a chasm of "economic hell," as locals increasingly skip work to avoid infection.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
10/20/2014 10:58 Comments ||
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#4
True, AP, but there was no chance for political exploitation or graft by using Firestone's methods.
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
10/20/2014 12:25 Comments ||
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#5
As after the Black Plague. Labor prices go up. Supply-Demand, Manpower Shortages. I recommend importing a lot of Central Americans, there appears to be a surplus.
[BBC] The UK would have "zero" influence if it voted to leave the EU, the outgoing president of the European Commission has said.
How much influence does it have now, and how much of that does it use?
Jose Manuel Barroso said Britannia could not negotiate with the US and China "on an equal footing" on its own.
He also said free movement of people within the EU was an "essential" principle that could not be changed.
But if Britain is no longer in the EU then it can be changed...
Conservative Party chairman Grant Shapps said Mr Barroso was "out of touch" and an "unelected bureaucrat".
Not that Grant is so spectacular himself, but I suppose it takes one to know one...
Mr Barroso was asked about Prime Minister David Cameron ... has stated that he is certainly a big Thatcher fan, but I don't know whether that makes me a Thatcherite, which means he's not. Since he is not deeply ideological he lacks core principles and is easily led. He has been described as certainly not a Pitt, Elder or Younger, but he does wear a nice suit so maybe he's Beau Brummel ... 's stated intention to negotiate a better deal for the UK in Europe, ahead of an in/out referendum.
The prime minister has said he will "not take no for an answer" and "get what Britannia needs" on the question of freedom of movement.
'One last go'
If the Conservatives remain in power, a referendum would be held by 2017, Mr Cameron has said.
Speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show, Mr Barroso, whose term of office ends this month, said he believed Mr Cameron wanted Britannia to remain in the EU.
Thus the corruption spreads. Once the camel gets its nose under the tent it gets the rest of the way in. And then good luck evicting it...
"Britannia is stronger in the European Union ...the successor to the Holy Roman Empire, only without the Hapsburgs and the nifty uniforms and the dancing... ," Mr Barroso said, pointing to the Ebola crisis as an area where Britannia would not have the same level of influence if it was outside the EU.
"David Cameron wrote to all of us about Ebola... What would be the influence of a prime minister of Britannia if it was not part of the European Union?
"His influence would be zero."
But you're not listening to him now so what's his influence anyway?
Mr Cameron has said he wants to curb migration within the EU and last week pledged to have "one last go" at renegotiating the rules for Britannia.
The Conservatives lost the recent Clacton by-election to the UK Independence Party, which wants the UK to leave the EU.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/20/2014 00:00 ||
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No, actually, he's got it backwards.
It would leave the EU with zero influence. The Brits have all the money, and all of Barroso's fulminating will not stop Germany and France from selling things to England. The productivity of your workers only matters when someone wants to buy what you're selling. (Ask Italy.)
Posted by: ed in texas ||
10/20/2014 7:48 Comments ||
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#2
Barroso is showing how desperate and fearful the EU is in the possibility of the UK leaving and the EU eventually collapsing.
Would you want some unelected bunch in the EU negotiating on your behalf with the US and China? How did the heavy handed attempt at imposing a carbon tax on Chinese and other commercial aircraft flying to the EU work out? Well, EU Commissioner Connie Hedegaar, how did it go?
Dinosaurs once roamed the earth, but they became obsolete and extinct. Like the EU will become.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
10/20/2014 11:14 Comments ||
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#3
I blame the USA. If it wasn't for your misplaced sentimentality, Europeans would live in the real World.
#4
I blame the USA. If it wasn't for your misplaced sentimentality, Europeans would live in the real World.
Yeah, we do kinda like 'em in spite of it all. You know, when your ancestors are from Britain it's only natural to have a certain interest in Britain. Sometimes I even have a certain amount of sympathy for the rest of them. As flawed as it may be and as much as we disagree with them, there are those of us who appreciate Western Civilization.
#8
* GROONG > [Ria Novosti] WORLDS IS MOVING ABCK TO PERIOD OF GREAT POWER [National + Regional] COMPETITION.
Mahanism + Mackindrianism.
Which, ironically, shows once again why the OWG GLOBALIST TENET THAT THE SOLE SUPERPOWER USA, ETAL. GREAT POWERS MUST UNILATERALLY GIVE UP THEIR POWER-N-INFLUENCE TO NEW GEOPOL WANNABES + FALL BACK ACROSS THE WORLD IS A DANGEROUS ONE.
Moreso because the OWG Globies have still failed to answer "HOW MUCH IS TOO MUCH"? andor "HOW FAR IS TOO FAR"? ETC. FOR THE US + OTHER TO GEOPOL RETREAT OR PULL BACK SAFELY WIDOUT BEING THREATENED OR DESTROYED BY NEWBIES, be it Globalist-desired fellow Co-Superpwer(s) or third-party originals e.g. "All the World will be an Islamic/Sharia State" Islamic State = ISIS/ISIL.
[DAWN] Robbers struck the head office of the Edhi Foundation in the Mithadar area of Bloody Karachi ...formerly the capital of Pakistain, now merely its most important port and financial center. It is among the largest cities in the world, with a population of 18 million, most of whom hate each other and many of whom are armed and dangerous... where they held all the staff including renowned philanthropist Abdul Sattar Edhi hostage and made away with gold, foreign currency and other valuables worth millions of rupees.
Eight robbers stormed into the Edhi headquarters around 9:45am and broke into storage lockers that contained five kilograms of gold, foreign and local currency worth millions of rupees, according to Faisal Edhi who is the son of Abdul Sattar.
The robbers easily managed to escape from the site after an extended period of looting.
Abdul Sattar Edhi told Dawn that the looted valuables included deposits made by people.
"This [dacoity] has never happened before...I have been held up before, but was let go without being looted," Edhi said.
Sindh Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah took notice of the incident and ordered police to immediately arrest the culprits behind the incident.
A First Information Report (FIR) was registered against unknown persons at the Mithadar cop shoppe on the complaint of Faisal Edhi.
The Muttahida Qaumi Movement ...English: United National Movement, generally known as MQM, is the 3rd largest political party and the largest secular political party in Pakistain with particular strength in Sindh. From 1992 to 1999, the MQM was the target of the Pak Army's Operation Cleanup leaving thousands of urdu speaking civilians dead... (MQM) also issued a statement in condemnation of the looting and demanded the immediate arrest of the robbers.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/20/2014 00:00 ||
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[Ynet] Israel signs deal with Egyptian company to supply a minimum of 5 million cubic meters of natural gas over the next three years.
A deal signed between the Israeli Tamar gas reservoir and Egyptian company Dolphinus Holdings will soon bring to the resumption of natural gas flow Israel and Egypt. The gas flow from Egypt to Israel was halted two and a half years ago, after terror organizations operating in the Sinai Peninsula repeatedly targeted the pipe with explosives.
Since then, the Tamar reservoir started operating and the signed agreement includes the export of up to 2.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas surplus from Israel to private industrial customers in Egypt.
So the slightly obfuscated detail in this story is this: the gas is now flowing in the other direction.
Indeed. Which means that, like Russia to Europe, the influence belongs to he who controls the spigot.
The supply of gas will be on a regular basis, and will be supplied after meeting the needs of Israeli customers, but the partners agreed to supply a minimum of five million cubic meters over three years.
This deal joins contracts other companies sharing Israel's gas reservoirs have signed with Middle Eastern clients, including the Paleostinian Authority, as well as to agreements to sell Israeli gas to the liquefaction plants of Union Fenosa and British Gas in Egypt, and an agreement with the Jordanian National Electric Power Company.
The deal was signed thanks to the apparent improvement of the Egyptian military control of Sinai and the decrease in terrorist activity in the peninsula.
#1
Last month, Noble signed a letter of intent to supply Jordan's National Electric Power Company with 487 bcm of natural gas from Leviathan over 15 years. Jordan once received Egypt natural gas through an undersea pipeline built from Sinai to Jordan. It now appears it will receive gas that is piped across Israel to Jordan. Israel would likely be wise to build an undersea connection to the Egyptian gas field north of the Nile Delta rather than depend upon the cross-Sinai route that is easily sabotaged.
Over-budget, behind schedule, and -- reportedly -- not a particularly good fighter jet, Lockheed Martin's ultramodern Joint Strike Fighter may be destined for the scrap heap. It's a good thing they just announced that have just made a huge advance in fusion technology, isn't it?
In a 2013 RAND Corporation report, one of the nation's foremost military analysts, blasted the F-35 for being a fighter that "can't turn, can't climb, can't run." Proponents of the F-35 reply that because it's stealthy, it shouldn't have to do any of those things -- lobbing missiles at its foes from over the horizon, and long before they can even see it.
Unfortunately, it turns out that the F-35 may not do the "invisibility" thing very well, either.
As DefenseNews.com recently revealed, China has a new device that may be able to track Lockheed's F-35 fighter with "passive" radar detection technology. Dubbed the DWL002, China's equipment can apparently detect stealth aircraft at distances of up to 400 kilometers -- and 600 kilometers for larger "stealth" targets -- processing "pulse, frequency agility, pulse duration, tactical air navigation system, distance measuring equipment, jitter/stagger radar, and identification friend or foe" signals emitted by the otherwise stealthy aircraft to determine its location.
To be clear, DWL002 is not an active radar system itself. As International Assessment and Strategy Center senior fellow Richard Fisher explains "Passive systems like these simply listen for any electronic emission," identifying an aircraft without having to ping it with an active radar transmitter. As such, whether or not the F-35 is itself invisible to "radar" may be a moot point.
China can "see" it anyway.
Knowing that a stealth fighter is somewhere in the general area, and knowing where it is precisely enough to turn the location over to a fire-control radar, which then has to see the aircraft well enough to kill it, are two different things. The F35 (which I'd get rid of simply because it's too bloody expensive for what it does) doesn't need perfect stealth. It needs to be stealthy enough that on a real-time basis it can't be targeted successfully.
This problem with the F-35's lack of invisibility, it turns out, is not limited to China. According to DN, both the Czechs and the Ukrainians have similar systems for passive intercept of electronic signals, capable of detecting stealth aircraft.
Similarly, Aviation Week reported earlier this year that certain very high frequency (VHF) radar systems, such as Russia's P-14 Oborona VHF early warning system, and its 3D Nebo SVU active electronically scanned array (AESA), may also be capable of detecting the F-35. (A new Chinese naval radar system, Type 517M VHF, may be similarly effective against the F-35.)
And of course, there is the Balkan War incident to keep in mind. On March 27, 1999, Serbian anti-aircraft forces used a 1960s vintage P-18 VHF acquisition radar system (working in conjunction with an SA-3 SAM system for proximity targeting) to detect and down a F-117 stealth fighter jet.
Now, experts differ on how effective these various aircraft detection systems will be against the F-35. For one thing, while passive detection systems can tell an opponent that there's an F-35 "out there," it still takes an active detection system to guide a missile to shoot it down. But if the critics are right, it could still undermine the aircraft's reputation for invisibility, and pose a significant threat to Lockheed Martin's business.
It's been 13 years now since Lockheed Martin won the contract to build what was then known as the "joint strike fighter," beating out Boeing for that honor. Since then, Lockheed stock has risen an astonishing five times in value, from $35.29 (adjusted for dividends and stock splits) on Oct. 29, 2001, to more than $176 per share today. While many factors contributed to this outperformance, Lockheed's winning the F-35 franchise has certainly contributed mightily to the stock's success.
After all, analysts estimate that over the program's estimate 60-year lifespan, the F-35 will bring Lockheed Martin as much as $1.1 trillion worth of high-margin revenues -- or more. At the 11.2% profit margin that Lockheed Martin earns at its Aeronautics division (thanks to S&P Capital IQ for the data), that works out to about $112 billion in profits the company could earn from this single product -- twice the market capitalization of the whole company.
But if the F-35 comes up short in the "invisibility" department, that franchise could be in jeopardy.
The thing about technology is that it's always changing. What was cutting edge tech in 2001 could be obsolete by 2021. If that happens, and if the F-35 is ultimately not built in the quantities originally anticipated (as was the case with Lockheed Martin's similarly high-tech F-22 Raptor fighter jet, you'll recall), then Lockheed Martin stock could be worth less than investors are counting on.
#1
Big nothing in this article. No one can put a long wave radar on a fighter and they aren't really that good anyway. The radars in the planes in the air are what matter, and in this regime the F-35 will be competitive for a long time.
#2
Going back to the 117 shoot down; what isn't widely known is that the USAF flew the same routes at the same time, speed and altitude. Made the targeting solution much easier to figure out and put a couple of ground based observers in the upstream portion of the flight path, they knew exactly when the Nighthawk was going over....
#4
I seem to recall the Navy cancelling the A12 Avenger program over basically the same concerns.
What we have here is another F111 coming to ripeness.
Posted by: ed in texas ||
10/20/2014 7:56 Comments ||
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#5
Man this article is full of crap....
All the "noisy" systems are turned off before entering a war zone. That means no IFF, no radar, no running lights... nothing. The only things active are the radar detection system (passive), the GPS system (passive only receives signals) and the radio which they don't use over the combat zone.
#8
Re: ed in Texas: The Dorito ( aka A12) as cancelled by then SecDef Cheney because he didn't want me to have a post-navy cushy retirement job. Seriously, there were huge weight overages as well as cost overruns. There is a fine book out : "The $5 Billion Misunderstanding" that goes into really good detail why the bird was cancelled. having lived through the last 2 years of its life ( not counting the litigation) I can say that it would have ben a really good aircraft except for all the gold plating the Navy put on it to please the Air Force. (It even had a bomb bay mounted tanker package for Lawn Dart support......)
So after that bird got the ax, the Navy decided to can the Intruder and Tomcat (Cheney was an A-6 BN) in favor of the F-18.(Cheney payback? or Light Attack Mafia at work?)
#11
Can someone explain the red camouflage? Wouldn't that be easily seen?
In WWII (pictures exist of a pink P-38 and Pink P-51)and even as late as Tacit Blue (the F117 prototype) the experimenting with colors included a lot of pastels and even pinks. But since no macho-Ascot wearing Air Forcian would be seen wearing a pink scarf, it was also decided to look for colors that would break up visual recognition in the non-girly spectrum; thus we now see blues, and grays, and various tans for desert. I suspect at altitude the reddish hues would be hard to spot. Notice they are flat and not glossy; so there is less visual glint/reflection to catch your eye.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
The U.S. military is forming a 30-person medical team to prepare to respond to additional cases of Ebola in the United States, the Pentagon announced Sunday. The "expeditionary medical support team" will consist of 20 critical care nurses, five doctors trained in infectious disease, and five trainers in infectious disease protocols, Pentagon Press Secretary Rear Admiral John Kirby said in a statement.
[BBC] The UK would have "zero" influence if it voted to leave the EU, the outgoing president of the European Commission has said.
David Cameron
Over-budget, behind schedule, and -- reportedly -- not a particularly good fighter jet, Lockheed Martin's ultramodern Joint Strike Fighter may be destined for the scrap heap.
