Posted by: Water Modem ||
08/20/2010 01:12 ||
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#1
Doc Fadl gives twelve reasons the Taliban will win in Afghanistan. Sadly, I agree with him. We gave it our best shot for nine years, but only the Afghan people can win this civil war against the Taliban. We can't do it for them. Nothing in Central Asia is worth American lives or treasure.
From the article:
"Dr. Fadl predicts a Taliban victory in the present struggle to retake Afghanistan from Coalition forces and the corrupt government of President Hamid Karzai. The author offers 12 reasons why a Taliban victory is inevitable:
1. A successful jihad must be accompanied by a religious reform movement. The religious motivation of the Taliban (as opposed to tribal loyalties or the pursuit of wealth) meets this criterion.
2. The Taliban cause is just, as it seeks to repel foreign occupation. Dr. Fadl points to the examples of the American Revolution, French resistance to Vichy and Nazi rule and the anti-Japanese resistance movements in Asia during World War Two.
3. Cross-border tribal bonds with Pakistani Pashtun tribesmen are vital to the jihads success; Loyalty of the Pashtu in Pakistan to the Pashtu in Afghanistan is stronger than their loyalty to their government in Islamabad.
4. Jihad has popular support from the people of Afghanistan, who provide fighters with support, shelter and intelligence.
5. The nature of the terrain in Afghanistan and the inaccessibility of Taliban refugees make it eminently suitable for guerrilla warfare; He who fights geography is a loser.
6. The backwardness of Afghanistan favors the success of jihad. The Russian experience proved that even a scorched-earth policy has little effect on people who are tolerant, patient and have little to lose in the first place. There is little in the way of cultural establishments to be destroyed Afghanistans monuments are its mountains and even atomic bombs do not affect them.
7. As the battlefield widens beyond the Taliban strongholds in the south, occupation forces must face increasing financial and personnel losses.
8. Both time and the capacity to endure losses are on the side of the Taliban, who do not have a ceiling to their losses, especially with regard to lives
9. Suicide operations make up for the shortage of modern weapons.
10. After three decades of nearly continuous warfare, Taliban fighters and leaders have the necessary experience to prevail against the occupation.
11. History is also on the Talibans side. Despite being world powers, both the British Empire and the Soviet Union failed to conquer Afghanistan.
12. Pakistans support of the Taliban provides the necessary third-party refuge and supplies to any successful guerrilla struggle. "
#2
Having tried many other options perhaps we can work on destroying the opium crops and undercutting that source of revenue for our enemies before we leave.
Chinese Lieutenant General Yazhou Liu has been giving speeches to his fellow officers in which he insists that China must embrace democracy, or perish. Liu recently got promoted, and his speeches and published articles continue. What is going on here?
Liu has been pushing his ideas for nearly a decade. Five years ago, he was ordered to shut up. So his public presentation of these seemingly heretical ideas ceased. But Liu kept talking to military and government officials in private. Now he has been allowed to go public again. The way he presents his ideas is compelling. He points out that the American military has continued to innovate, increasing the gap between Chinese and U.S. military capabilities. This, despite over a decade of intense reform and upgrades in the Chinese military. This gets the attention of Chinese generals and admirals. Earlier, the Chinese brass were appalled at how quickly the Americans demolished Iraqi forces (using weapons and tactics similar to what China has) in 1991 and 2003. The Chinese military leadership was also shocked at how much the American forces had improved between 1991 and 2003. The quick conquest of Afghanistan in 2001 was also an unpleasant surprise, as this was a very different war than the two in Iraq. Chinese commanders speak boldly, and publicly, of how they are developing methods to defeat all this American cleverness, but Liu knows better, and his private conversations with fellow generals has changed a lot of minds.
Liu's backing of democracy is purely practical, and really has nothing to do with political beliefs. He describes American democracy as a system designed by a genius for effective use by stupid people. As Liu puts it, ''a bad system makes a good person behave badly while a good system makes a bad person behave well. Democracy is the most important reform for China, for without it there can be no sustainable growth.''
Liu has also been active in anti-corruption efforts, and points out that democracies tend to have far less corruption than non-democracies. This gets the attention of Communist Party officials, who have long believed that the Russians made a mistake by enacting economic reforms as well as political ones. Liu points out that the Russians had no choice, as the communists in Russia were completely discredited, and the economic reforms followed the political collapse.
Liu points out that communists can compete in a democratic environment, especially since Chinese communists have abandoned the most destructive aspects of traditional communist doctrine (state control of the economy). But growing corruption, especially among communist officials, is crippling China and threatens the economy, as well as continued communist control of the country. Better to compete in a democratic environment, and risk losing national power, than to proceed with the current system and risk everything. Liu is being listened to by a lot of senior officials, both military and government, who back clean government. But the "dirty communists" are opposed, and that is a formidable opponent for someone like Liu.
Liu is a special kind of officer. He's a political officer, a job invented by the Russians during the Soviet period. The political officer is assigned to units from company size on up, and is second in command of the unit. The political officer is responsible for the political loyalty of all the officers and troops in the unit. He also acts as a (non-religious) chaplain, morale officer and publicist for the unit. These days, political officers rarely say much about communist doctrine, as few Chinese care for it. Political officers do serve as a source of grassroots information on what's going on with the troops, and the word is that corruption is a big issue with military personnel as well. Change is in the air, whether communist officials want it or not. Liu offers a way out, but there's no guarantee that enough of these officials will take it.
#1
Americans equate democracy with freedom and liberty, but in truth, these are side effects. The real value of democracy lies in efficiency at a low level. Beyond a few tiers, however, democracy requires republicanism to maintain this efficiency.
And breakdowns can happen. Either through disenfranchisement of an important segment of the public, or a lack of discipline in selecting republican representatives.
#2
China will have democracy...eventually. They're big on long-term plans. It will take 50 years or so. China is afraid of chaos more than anything else, if they held elections today, Canton and Hong Kong would vote their own parties in to power (or even secede from PRC by popular demand), and the rest of the nation would fall apart.
#3
America was the original revolutionary nation. The concept that 'all men are created equal' while imperfectly implemented, none the less strikes a cord with most of humanity. Except, of course, the ruling elite both abroad and at home, who insist that they and only they are more equal than others. That concept is so revolutionary because it treats man as something more than just another species on the planet that struggles for base hierarchical dominance, again unlike the ruling elite which does. It is a powerful concept as reflected in the time resources directed against it. Yet, as imperfect it is executed, it has provided more benefits for more people, well beyond the usual tribal identification, than any other time in history. Liu has grasped what hundreds of thousands of 'educated' Americans have failed to understand. Then again, Liu compares America with the rest of the world. The 'educated' Americans compared America with their concepts of unattainable perfection.
#5
"Political officer" - Liu's a commissar. Watch out for commissars talking "democracy". They're often "Lean and Hungry Cassius" on the make. Especially when they're also on an anti-corruption kick. That's how the new Maoists talked during the run-up to the Cultural Revolution. Is this guy talking sweet to the foreign press in English and talking up a purge of the cadres in Mandarin?
Posted by: Mitch H. ||
08/20/2010 12:44 Comments ||
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#6
To paraphrase an old saying, THE GREATEST THREAT TO DEMOCRACY IS ITSELF.
1990's CLINTONISM > Among other, RIGHTISM IS THE "NEW LEFTISM" e.g. hence ARROGANT MALE BRUTE FASCIST = NATIONALIST/NATIONAL [Right-Socialist] AMERICA is leading the charge to establish motherly Femmez-vouz OWG-NWO = "GLOBALISM" = GLOBAL LEFTIST-SOCIALIST-GOVTIST COMMIE SOCIALIST WORLD ORDER.
Lives Touched is a figure that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) uses to track the amount of people who have been positively affected by the Recovery Act funds. This total would include people who have been provided full time employment (i.e. saved and created jobs) through the Recovery Act and people who at some point have supported a project funded by the Recovery Act.
In other words, the administration has stumbled upon another way to inflate their job numbers. They were already reporting on those saved or created, but will now include people who at some point have supported a project.
#1
...well, that could include those 'negatively' touched as well. That should then include both all the present population and about two more generations yet to be born.
#2
My bankruptcy clients want thank the U.S. government for its economic recovery programs. Without the government's help, my clients might be working at jobs rather than filing bankruptcies. What can one say, Oh Thank YOU
"U S DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY".
#4
Damn. I'm torn between linking "Only a Woman (Is Allowed to Touch Me There)" from Team America: World Police, and "The Bad Touch" by the Dead Milkmen.....
Concludes that the State of Pakistan could be dissolving for a variety of reasons and wonders if the end game results in a new state/states (some mini-states being insurgent led) or the posiblity of Pakistan becoming a nuclear Somalia.
Posted by: Water Modem ||
08/20/2010 00:35 ||
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#1
Makes me wonder what the birth rate is in Somalia right now. What gets me is the idea that local landowners would let the irrigation system fall to pieces. That's incredibly self-destructive - of what use is agricultural land without reliable water? If they're that irrational, then they're incapable of self-government.
Not that the Indian farming class is winning any prizes, either. Dumb fuckers keep sterilizing their fields with excessive urea, because their archaic socialist agricultural ministry over-subsidizes urea. Like that bit in Idiocracy with the sports-drink irrigation system...
Posted by: Mitch H. ||
08/20/2010 12:37 Comments ||
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The departure of the last combat brigade from Iraq is full of symbolic weight.
1. President Obama, to his credit, dropped the nonsense from his candidacy about promising withdrawal by March 2008 and stuck to the Bush-Petraeus plan.
It means US troops emerge from Iraq as victors, having completed an operation that should have been completed in 1991.
Make sure you tell liberals we can place one in the "W" column. They'll hate that.
#4
Don't fergit NETTERS > POTUS BAMMER "BIRTH CERTIFICATE" + "OBAMUSLIM" Controversies = WATERGATE-LITE = 1975 "FALL OF SAIGON" II = US CAN'T ANDOR WON'T BE ABLE TO UNILATER DEFEND ITS ALLY(S) CONTRARY TO PRE-EXISTING AGREEMENT OR OBLIGATION, etc. as due to PC/PDENIABLE
"EXTENUATING CIRCUMSTANCES".
D *** NG IT, America = Amerika, the OWG MIghty USSA = OWG Weak Global SSR, IS ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY UNDENIABLY CATEGORICALLY.......@ETC.
"ATTACKATREATING", + DON"T YOUSE ever Ever EVER E-V-E-R EEEEEEEVVVVVVEEEEERRRRRRR EVAR! FORGET WHAT WE NEVER TOLD YOU!
#5
ION WMF > "WEN WEI PO" HONG KONG MEDIA: US-ALLIED REGIONAL MILEXS [ROK = South KOrea, JAPAN, Vietnam] IN THE CHINA SEAS MAY BE A DIVERSION FOR IRAN ATTACK IN ONE YEAR [Summer 2011]???
* CHINESE MILUITARY FORUM > US, JAPAN PLAN NAVAL EXERCISES AT DAOYUS IN DECEMBER | JAPAN, US PLAN NAVAL DRILL IN DISPUTED ISLETS.
* WMF > US-JAPAN PLAN DECEMBER JOINT MILITARY DRILLS IN DAOYUS [Kapan = Senkaku Islands], + SW ISLANDS FROM OKINAWA TO KAGOSHIMA NEAR TAIWAN. PREMISE OF AREA MILEXS IS MILITARY-LED "RECOVERY OF ISLANDS FROM CHINA/CPLA".
* WMF > JAPANESE MEDIAS: US-JAPAN MILITARY DRILL IN DAOTUS + JAPAN'S SW ISLANDS IS INTENDED TO TO ILLUSTRATE TOKYO'S DESIRE TO EXPAND JAPAN'S
"SPHERE OF INFLUENCE" VIA ECONOMIC TRADE, IMPROVED JSDF FORCES + CAPABILITIES, AND DEV + PROCUREMENT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS. JAPAN'S DESIRE FOR EXPANDED NATIONAL COOPERATION WID CHINA + MAINLAND ASIA.
* WMF > POTUS OBAMA'S NEW NSS STRATEGY CALLS FOR THE US TO COUNTER RISING CHINA'S "STRING OF PEARLS" ISLANDS STRATEGY WID ITS OWN "CHAINS" OR SPHERES OF US-CONTROLLED ISLANDS + REGIONAL ALLIES. US MILBASES ON OKINAWA AND GUAM ISLAND AS THE CENTRAL "AXIS OF MOVEMENT/MANEUVER" BETWEEN US EASTPAC + WEST COASTS, + US ALLIES IN EAST-SOUTH ASIA.
*Warning. To those brave enough to Google the Youtube video, it's not for those of weak constitution and delicate disposition. However, it is a good allegory of the growth of government. May we find the wafer thin mint for it someday.
What if the purpose of the Cordoba Center is to provoke, to alienate non-Muslim and Muslim Americans from one another? That certainly would explain Imam Rauf's intransigence when it comes to insisting that his chosen site is the only acceptable site.
Are the intended victims of this travesty our Muslim fellow citizens, so many of whom are integrating successfully? Is the Cordoba Initiative really about aggravating social divisions? How does it serve our society for our media to refuse to ask such questions?
Even the use of the name "Cordoba" is brilliantly cynical. To Atlantis-will-rise-again! Leftists, medieval Cordoba, in Spain, is a fairy-tale example of Muslims, Christians and Jews living together amicably in a social compact called the convivencia.
What's left out of the fable is that Christian and Jews were distinctly second-class members of society heavily taxed for their faiths and subject to the whims of Muslim rulers. After a brief cultural flowering, Cordoba's rulers for centuries were Islamist fanatics from North Africa. As Nikita Khrushchev, sneering at the Western powers, once said, "We will hang you ... and you will sell us the rope."
One cannot help but suspect that Imam Rauf and his backers are mocking us, gleefully turning our Constitution against us, and exploiting a media terrified of being accused of bigotry.
Last, but not least, this Ground-Zero mosque complex would be a symbol-not of reconciliation and tolerance, but of the greatest triumph of violent jihad in three centuries: 9/11.
Islam's ghazis-religious warriors--have always understood symbols. That's why the hijackers struck the Twin Towers, not a housing project. This mega-mosque complex will be interpreted by hardline fanatics as a monument to their 9/11 "victory."
...I believe thats really what all the controversy comes down to: the unspoken pronouncement of America as a horse so weakened, she cannot find the spirit to rebuild where she should have, the overall message the gaping hole at Ground Zero sends of defeat, and disorder. Its a notion so uncomfortable that Ive had a few emails from people calling me Un-American for suggesting there has been any failure at all.
But yesas Obama would say, make no mistakeour inability to rebuild on site has been a failure and it is wholly our own failure, no one elses. It is a failure of leadership, drive and vision. It is a paralysis of politics, pandering and passivity.
Had we rebuilt, this mosque project would not be on anyones radar.
My point seemed to be lost on others, too, who were so quick to crouch into predictable parroting posture and start squawking bigot! racists! Islamophobes! Bwwwark! that they missed my criticism. I got hate mail from them, too, telling me I was Un-American for being an Un-American Christianist Nazi Un-American Idiot Poopyhead.
My hate mail from right and left tends to be very similar, but the people on the left use bigger words and curse more....
Posted by: Mike ||
08/20/2010 09:01 ||
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...It seemed, after the 2008 election, that Mr. Obama thought that, having convinced the great white moderate political center of America that it should put him in the White House to slake its concerns about 400 years of mistreatment of blacks (and, as a bonus, to be spared having to take seriously the posturings of charlatans like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson ever again), he might be perhaps able also to turn the page in international relations with many countries that were convinced the United States was governed by a self-serving white capitalist apparat. It was worth a try, but it didnt work. Those countries and political currents in the world that do not wish America well dont care who is in the White House. They want to pick Americas pocket, overrun its interests, and kill its children. Unfortunately, althoughPresident Obama may have made brief inroads on public opinion with his speeches in Egypt and Ghana, public opinion in undemocratic countries doesnt have much force unless the regime is insufferably oppressive and terribly enfeebled. His words were eloquent in Ghana, rather cloying in Cairo; in both cases, they evaporated like the tropical dew.
Mr. Obama appears to believe some of the guilt-stained profferings he has made to the world: The United States should be more socialistic, like economically stagnant Europe, carried for decades by Americas addiction to Italian and French luxury goods and German engineered products. President Truman should not have dropped the atomic bomb. President Eisenhower should not have been complicit in turfing out Mossadegh (a deranged fellow-traveling demagogue who rarely got out of his pajamas, perhaps the sartorial inspiration for the late donof the Genovese crime family, Vincent The Chin Gigante), as prime minister of Iran.
America may just now be coming to grips with the implications of the fact that its president is going forth into the world actually believing the bunk that America pursued its national interest with unjustifiable callousness and behaved reprehensibly by the standards of those who reproach it now, and that there may actually be some merit to the Americaphobic stricturesof the Ahmadinejads, Mugabes, and Chávezes.
Equally disturbing, he may also think that enemies like appeasers....
Posted by: Mike ||
08/20/2010 08:54 ||
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#1
Unfortunately, althoughPresident Obama may have made brief inroads on public opinion with his speeches in Egypt and Ghana, public opinion in undemocratic countries doesn't have much force unless the regime is insufferably oppressive and terribly enfeebled. His words were eloquent in Ghana, rather cloying in Cairo; in both cases, they evaporated like the tropical dew.
Nice touch-- sums it up precisely. Lord Black still has it.
#2
See NEWS KERALA > OBAMA IS A CHRISTIAN: SAYS WHITE HOUSE.
versus
* WMF > RUSSIAN EXPERTS: US RISKS SELF-DEFEAT IN FIGHTING AFPAK MILITANTS BY PREMATURE WITHDRAWAL.
* WMF > US POTUS OBAMA REMODELS ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY: OBAMA DID NOT ANGER CHINA OER THE YELLOW SEA US-ROK MILITARY DRILL BECAUSE HE NEEDS CHINA + JAPAN TO SERVE AS PRO-US OR ALLIED "LINCHPINS/ANCHORS" FOR HIS NEW
[Global] NATIONAL SECURITY SECURITY [NSS].
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
