Chris Johnston at World Affairs points out that the Russians have a model for how to frustrate Ukraine and the Europeans. They've been practicing their model on Armenia and Azerbaijan the last two decades. Couple that to what they did in Georgia and you'll see the Putin Policy at work -- keep former Soviet states in the Russian orbit by various forms of intimidation.
It's working as America has abdicated any role in helping the former Soviet states protect themselves, and Europe resolutely refuses to lead. Once Putin has eastern Ukraine under firm Russian control he'll pick another former Soviet state to freeze and frustrate. My prediction: Estonia.
Posted by: Steve White ||
07/20/2014 00:00 ||
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Top|| File under:
Why Unifying the Peninsula Won't Be So Bad After All
Given all these advantages, the international community should promote reunification, not postpone it. There may be little that any outsider can do to make Pyongyang change course. But regional powers, notably South Korea and the United States, should stop propping up the Kim dynasty in return for fleeting assurances of better behavior, as they have in the past; Kim Jong Un is no more likely to keep these promises than his father or his grandfather was.
Nor should the West resist the urge to tighten sanctions or retaliate proportionately in response to North Korea’s provocations for fear of destabilizing the country. Even if the North were to implode now, that would be preferable to allowing the state to limp along for decades and waiting for reforms that will never come.
An interesting piece in Foreign Affairs that challenges the notion that a union between North and South would automatically be a disaster. Recommended.
Posted by: Steve White ||
07/20/2014 00:00 ||
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Top|| File under: Commies
#1
NK is a push over. If ever confronted militarily, they would sustain incredible losses. That is the reason for all the song and dance in the NK. To make the paper tiger appear to be real.
#3
1 - the Chinese believe that Norks are a historical part of China (Goguryeo) and need to be again (vassal state, satellite, whatever).
2 - the Chinese do not want a prosperous multi-party republic on their border.
3 - the Chinese certainly don't want a country with a major military connection to the US on their immediate border.
4 - the realists in Sork understand the cost of unification as they saw what happened with German unificaiton. Those in China also see the cost of directly absorbing the Norks. It ain't pretty.
5 - so regardless of the use of the word 'humanitarianism' thrown around by so many of the ruling caste to justify actions here and there, the people of Nork are screwed.
#4
the Chinese believe that Norks are a historical part of China (Goguryeo) and need to be again (vassal state, satellite, whatever).
Large parts of South Korea were also part of China. If China absorbs NK, the south should be nervous.
2 - the Chinese do not want a prosperous multi-party republic on their border.
Not sure that's still the case. They are doing OK with Hong Kong. Taiwan and ROK are technically neighbors. So is Thailand.
If I had to choose between a nuclear armed basket case and a prosperous democracy, I know who I'd choose.
Posted by: Frozen Al ||
07/20/2014 11:27 Comments ||
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#5
North Koreans who have escaped to South Korea have a hard time of it. Bad nutrition has left them short and not as sharp as average. They lack the skills and education to fit into a high tech capitalist society like S.Korea. A fair number of them move on to Asian countries that are less developed than S. Korea. They also have anger management issues since they realize how badly they have treated but can't take vengeance on those who abused them and their relatives. There has even been a noticeable drift in the language between North and South.
Posted by: Pearl Borgia1889 ||
07/20/2014 15:07 Comments ||
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[DAWN] THE state is often justifiably accused of bad planning, especially when it comes to maintaining updated figures. One example of this is the government's inept handling of the North Wazoo IDP crisis. A fair bit of confusion surrounds the number of displaced persons who have left North Waziristan in the wake of the military operation. The number of IDPs seems to be far greater than what earlier estimates of the tribal agency's population suggested. As reported on Saturday, officially registered IDPs are now close to the million mark, while it was earlier thought that North Waziristan's total population itself was around half this figure. Why is there such a huge discrepancy? For one thing, the population projections are based on the 1998 census, which is the last one conducted. Since there has been no head count in the country for the last 16 years, such a wild variance in figures was only to be expected. Along with the fact that the whole country's population estimates are based on an outdated census, North Waziristan's lack of accessibility, thanks to the turbans' infestation, has meant that the tribal region has become an information black hole. Aside from reliable population numbers, it is also, for example, difficult to get verifiable information on non-combatant drone deaths or children missed out in anti-polio ...Poliomyelitis is a disease caused by infection with the poliovirus. Between 1840 and the 1950s, polio was a worldwide epidemic. Since the development of polio vaccines the disease has been largely wiped out in the civilized world. However, since the vaccine is known to make Moslem pee-pees shrink and renders females sterile, bookish, and unsubmissive it is not widely used by the turban and automatic weapons set... campaigns in the agency. The discrepancy between the original estimates and the present number of registered IDPs may also be due to the fact that people may have registered themselves or their families multiple times. In fact, those who have North Waziristan domiciles but live elsewhere too may have registered themselves. What is clear from all this is that the state has been working with seriously flawed numbers, that when the military operation began even the basic details had not been confirmed.
Verification of the registered IDPs is under way, although the exercise is proceeding at a slow pace. We hope that after the process is complete the state has a better idea of the numbers it is dealing with. Providing relief to such a large body of humanity is no easy task, and it is made all the more difficult when the government doesn't have a fair idea of the number of people it has to assist. The North Waziristan experience should serve as a lesson about how accurate data is essential not only for routine planning, but also when it comes to dealing with humanitarian disasters.
Posted by: Fred ||
07/20/2014 00:00 ||
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Top|| File under: Govt of Pakistan
[IsraelTimes] Euphoric Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason, needs to hear that Israel will oust it from Gazoo if necessaryThis conflict finds Israel caught between warring parties in the Sunni Mohammedan world. If Israel wants to end it, the gameplan needs to change, and fast
The Qatari ceasefire initiative, first reported by the Times of Israel Saturday, illustrates how the continuing escalation of the conflict in Gazoo has actually got nothing to do with Israel itself. Unfortunately, Israel has found itself tangled up in a battle of far wider proportions — a war between two competing axes in the Sunni Mohammedan world.
On the one side are Egypt and the Paleostinian Authority, with Jordan and Soddy Arabia
Continued on Page 49
#1
if enough hamas troops quit, defect, are killed or captured this euphoria will come undone
right now hamas is still a cohesive force;
even if they aren't that effective against the idf they are, at least as of today, armed and numerous enough to prevent islamic jihad or isis or fatah from taking over
Posted by: lord garth ||
07/20/2014 0:18 Comments ||
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#2
1. Destroy Hmas.
2.Celebrate.
Posted by: Redneck Jim ||
07/20/2014 2:17 Comments ||
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#3
Bring in exterminators to clear the tunnels the way you get rid of rats. Create a 3mile wide no-man's land all along the border.
And announce that for each rocket fired the NML strip will be extended by another mile. Tell Egypt, et al to decide what to do with the rifraf.
#4
I like the idea that, I think, Ariel Sharon proposed: a canal, forty or fifty feet deep, from the Med to the southern border. It wouldn't have to be very wide.
Posted by: Rambler in Virginia ||
07/20/2014 13:03 Comments ||
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#5
Seawater canal. Import some Aussie saltwater crocks to keep it free of bodies... and some yellow tangs to eat the algae.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
Wazoo
