THE Icelandic eruption that has caused misery for air travellers could be part of a surge in volcanic activity that will affect the whole of Europe for decades, scientists have warned.
They have reconstructed a timeline of 205 eruptions in Iceland, spanning the past 1,100 years, and found that they occur in regular cycles with the relatively quiet phase that dominated the past five decades now coming to an end.
At least three other big Icelandic volcanoes are building towards an eruption, according to Thor Thordarson, a volcanologist at Edinburgh University.
"The frequency of Icelandic eruptions seems to rise and fall in a cycle lasting around 140 years," he said. "In the latter part of the 20th century we were in a low period, but now there is evidence that we could be approaching a peak."
His findings coincide with new warnings that the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, which has disrupted air traffic across Europe for several weeks, could carry on for many months and possibly years.
Some geologists have also warned of a serious threat from a fourth volcano, Katla, which lies 15 miles to the east of Eyjafjallajokull. Two of its past three eruptions seemed to be triggered by those of its smaller neighbour and a report issued just before Eyjafjallajokull blew suggested Katla was "close to failure [eruption]".
The three other volcanoes cited by Thordarson as being potentially close to a large eruption are Grimsvotn, Hekla and Askja all of which are bigger than Eyjafjallajokull.
In the past, they have proved devastating. Hekla alone has erupted about 20 times since AD 874, pouring out a total of two cubic miles of lava from a line of fissures that stretches 3A miles across the mountain.
There was a minor eruption in 2000 and geologists have reported that snow is once again melting on Hekla's summit, suggesting that magma is rising.
Grimsvotn, another highly active volcano, lies under the huge Vatnajokull glacier in Iceland's southeast. An eruption in 1996 saw much of this glacial ice melt, causing a flood that washed away the country's main ring road.
It is linked to the massive Laki fissure volcano whose 1783 eruption ejected so much ash into the atmosphere that it cooled the entire northern hemisphere for nearly three years. The resulting low temperatures caused crop failures and famines that killed 2m people and helped trigger the French Revolution.
Thordarson believes that the behaviour of the volcanoes is linked to movements in the earth's crust which create massive subterranean stresses over wide areas. As these stresses build up, more volcanoes erupt and as the stress disappears, the volcanoes subside again.
The theory is a controversial one. Gillian Foulger, professor of geophysics at Durham University, suggests that historic clusters of eruptions could well have occurred by chance. She said: "This needs rigorous statistical support."
However, both she and Thordarson agree that Europe needs to take the threat of further Icelandic eruptions more seriously, including improving the monitoring of active volcanoes. Foulger is writing to David Willetts, the new science minister, suggesting Britain could support Iceland in such a project.
She said: "There are about 35 active [big] volcanoes in Iceland and if we put a high quality seismograph and some global positioning equipment on each one we would often be able to tell in advance if an eruption was coming. The cost is tiny compared with the potential economic damage from an unexpected eruption."
The most pressing question for Britain and the rest of Europe is how long the current eruption will continue.
Professor Stephen Sparks, from the earth sciences department at Bristol University, said: "Every volcano has its own personality. This particular volcano has erupted before in 1612 and 1821. When it erupted in 1821 it continued erupting for 15 months so there is no reason why it could not last a similar period of time."
The new rules in place for aviation mean Iceland and Europe can probably cope with Eyjafjallajokull, but an eruption by Katla could cause far bigger problems.
Dr Richard Waller, senior lecturer in physical geography at Keele University, believes the ash cloud could be immense, but for Iceland the biggest problem would be massive flooding. Katla has a crater filled with ice more than 2,000ft thick, which will all melt," he said. It's magma reaching ice/water that is the main cause of ash.
I blame Bush and American ecological fecklessness. Because it can't possibly be nature's fault -- Mother Gaia is ever gentle and kind, never ignoring the heartfelt desires of her children for airplane fuel-gobbling adventure travel and summer crops.
#3
Ireland needs to keep an eye out, too. There is some historical evidence that major eruptions in Iceland have created tsunamis that have struck Ireland.
#4
I'm very much afraid not, John. AGW is bunk. And the earth IS entering a cooling phase. But this high latitude volcanic ash will simply be used by the Goracle to explain away the coming lower temperatures and buildup of arctic ice. Just watch. Those BS artists believe it's heads they win, tails WE lose.
#5
Laki's output of sulphur dioxide dwarfs the 1990 eruption of Pinatubo in the Philippines, which is famous for halting global warming for several years. While that eruption produced 17 mega tonnes of sulphur dioxide, Laki was pumping the same amount out every three days at its peak, says Self. He estimates Laki's power was over 100 times greater than the current eruption.
"The 1783 eruption pumped out so much sulphur gas, creating a huge cloud of sulphuric acid droplets which began to drift over Europe travelling eastwards over the whole world," he says.
The noxious fog travelled down through Norway, Germany, France and across to Britain, causing panic when farm labourers began dropping like flies. People at this time had no idea where the fog had come from or that sulphur dioxide was mixing with water vapour in the lungs to choke victims. Research into parish records has led to estimates of more than 20,000 deaths in Britain alone during the summer of 1783.
#6
The irony is that over century timescales we can predict volcanic eruptions with rather more accuracy than changes to the climate. Yet we are completely unprepared for a repeat of the 1783 eruption.
A member of the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, the Saudi religious police known locally as the Hai'a, asked the couple to confirm their identities and relationship to one another, as it is a crime in Saudi Arabia for unmarried men and women to mix.
For unknown reasons, the young man collapsed upon being questioned by the cop.
According to the Saudi daily Okaz, the woman then allegedly laid into the religious policeman, punching him repeatedly, and leaving him to be taken to the hospital with bruises across his body and face.
To see resistance from a woman means a lot,' Wajiha Al-Huwaidar, a Saudi women's rights activist, told The Media Line news agency. People are fed up with these religious police, and now they have to pay the price for the humiliation they put people through for years and years. This is just the beginning and there will be more resistance.'
#3
DMFD, do you want almost the entirety of Arabic-speaking males in the Ummah to end up curled up in the fetal position, clutching their hair and whimpering?
#4
"DMFD, do you want almost the entirety of Arabic-speaking males in the Ummah to end up curled up in the fetal position, clutching their hair and whimpering?"
I can't speak for DMFD, tw, but I sure as hell do! :-D
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut ||
05/17/2010 20:55 Comments ||
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#5
it could have been a man dressed as a woman
Posted by: chris ||
05/17/2010 21:10 Comments ||
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David Cameron and Nick Clegg will create more than 100 peers to ensure that controversial legislation gets through Parliament.
Oooooh, I'll bet President Obama is feeling seriously jealous -- all he can appoint is czars.
The coalition government has agreed to reshape the House of Lords, which is currently dominated by Labour, to be "reflective of the vote" at the general election. That saw the Tories and the Liberal Democrats together get 59 per cent.
None of Labour's 211 existing peers can be removed, so the coalition must appoint dozens of its own to rebalance the upper chamber. Lib Dem estimates suggest that the number of Tory peers would need to rise from 186 to 263 and Lib Dem peers from 72 to 167.
The first wave is expected soon, to enable additional ministerial appointments to take place, with further announcements within parliament.
#1
Just paganism in a new wrapper - the article is larded up with a ton of liberal crap liek this: millions of peasants were undermined by the 2008 elimination of farm tariffs under the North American Free Trade Agreemen
#2
Not just paganism, but very, very dangerous paganism. If those SOBs got a charismatic leader, a strong possibility, we would be looking at 1m Thuggees on both sides of the border. This would be bad.
Remember that the Conquistadors were battle hardened mercenaries, who had seen some pretty vicious combat in Europe. But they took one look at the Aztec Empire and quickly decided that "this shiat has to be destroyed. All of it."
The Catholic priest who accompanied them forbade them from destroying the great codex library at Tenochtitlan. Then he read every one of those codex. Then he personally burned them, which is why only a small handful remain today. He had some very unkind things to say about Aztec culture, reaching the learned conclusion that the Conquistadors were right.
#3
millions of peasants were undermined by the 2008 elimination of farm tariffs under the North American Free Trade Agreement
Actually, NAFTA has indeed hurt small Mexican farmers and campesinos, but it's because of a carveout that allows major US ag exporters, esp Cargilla nd ADM, to continue receiving massive US government subsidies and then dump their subsidized corn into Mexico. If the US would end its subsidies of corn, then we'd have free trade, but what's happening is essentially dumping by the uS side. Of corn. Into Mexico.
This is the quivalent of dumping rice into the Japanese market! Only the Mexicans get such a raw deal. ANd of course, all the pain is felt by the rural Mexcan poor, who then emigrate to El Norte, thereby undermining one of the key selling points for NAFTA. Remember how Al Gore in 1996 sold it to us as reducing Mexican illegal immigration? We've had about 7 million illegals enter since NAFTA's passage.
Another shining example of the mendacity and incompetence of our political class.
H/T AoSHQ. Excellent and very descriptive (and disturbing) graphics on where "our" govt is in the debt game. Every one of our congress critters needs to know that they will be made personally responsible for our economic demise. They need to be confronted with the graphics. Click on the title for the article.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
05/17/2010 21:08 ||
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[Straits Times] THE five-star Dusit Thani, a luxury hotel facing a protest site in Bangkok came under gunfire early Monday and a loud blast was heard, prompting guests to shelter in the basement, according to an AFP journalist inside.
'I was in bed. There was a big explosion very close to my room. I went out of the room, other people did too and at that moment the wall outside was hit by bullets,' said AFP photographer Pedro Ugarte.
'We received a few phone calls (from hotel staff) and they said, 'Come down, you are under attack'. Everybody is now in the basement, about 100 people,' he said by telephone from the Dusit Thani hotel where the incident occurred.
Rumours spread among guests that there were army snipers inside the 517-room hotel, which now overlooks a sprawling encampment filled with anti-government 'Red Shirts'. Violent clashes have broken out in the area between demonstrators and troops. It was unclear where the shooting that hit the hotel came from.
A renegade general allied with 'Red Shirt' protesters was shot in the head in a nearby area last week. His supporters said he was targeted by an army sniper. The military has said it would use marksmen in its lockdown operation launched last Thursday to contain protesters within their main camp.
The mood was calm in the basement but one female guest appeared to have fainted. Guests were later moved to a lobby, far away from the street. 'Someone explained the reason we were here was that there was first some shooting and a fire in the roof,' said Ugarte, AFP's chief photographer for South Asia, normally based in New Delhi, who was stayed on the 20th floor.
The Dusit Thani, whose website describes it as being situated in the heart of the 'City of Angels', has become a magnet for journalists covering the unrest because of its proximity to the action and its views of the rally site. Authorities warned journalists to stay out of the demonstration area, saying they were an easy target for 'terrorists'. Four reporters have been shot and injured and one killed in Bangkok since the unrest began in March.
Posted by: Fred ||
05/17/2010 00:00 ||
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#1
The best reporting on this fighting is coming from Michael Yon's Facebook page (no kidding).
[Iran Press TV Latest] The Thai government has rejected a UN-backed mediation in the intensifying battle with anti-government red-shirt protesters in Bangkok.
A leader of the red-shirt protesters called for the UN mediation but the suggestion was immediately turned down by the government, which is strongly opposed to any foreign interference.
"As for the call of UN interference, no governments allow any organizations to intervene in their internal affairs," Government Spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said.
Although the red-shirts have camped in Bangkok for months, 29 people have been killed and 220 wounded since last Thursday as the violence intensified, according to BBC.
Over 20 provinces, including Bangkok, are now under emergency rule and schools have been ordered to remain closed on Monday.
The government has vowed to seal-off the camped protesters inside a business district from the rest of Bangkok. It has also urged the opposition leaders to surrender.
The red-shirts mainly support former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a military coup in 2006.
Posted by: Fred ||
05/17/2010 00:00 ||
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Russia is supplying Syria with warplanes, armoured vehicles and air defence systems under existing contracts, ITAR-Tass news agency quoted the head of the country's state military agency as saying.
Mikhail Dmitriyev, head of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, said Russia was selling Syria MiG-29 fighter jets, Pantsir short-range air defence systems and armoured vehicles.
#8
This country can't afford another war, let alone the one(s) we are already in. We have to get our of Afghanistan and soon. We are not going to do anything about that hell-hole other than waste blood and a whole lot of treasure.
Posted by: Matt ||
05/17/2010 11:35 Comments ||
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#4
Miss Ok. equally stunning. If she would have answered this question in an AFL CIO talking point she probably would have won.
Woolard handled the night's toughest question, about Arizona's new immigration law. Woolard said she supports the law, which requires police enforcing another law to verify a person's immigration status if there's "reasonable suspicion" that the person is in the country illegally.
She said she's against illegal immigration but is also against racial profiling.
"I'm a huge believer in states' rights. I think that's what's so wonderful about America," Woolard said. "So I think it's perfectly fine for Arizona to create that law."
#5
Lebanese, a supporter of women's rights, modern and cosmopolitan and happy to show off her beauty... a very good choice, and a slap in the face to the muslim neanderthals.
#6
Anybody else worried about her being harmed to protect the honor of someone else?
Posted by: Bobby ||
05/17/2010 12:55 Comments ||
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#7
Lebanese, a supporter of women's rights, modern and cosmopolitan and happy to show off her beauty... a very good choice, and a slap in the face to the muslim neanderthals.
#12
Taliban issue fatwa to Rima Fakih, says she is too sexy for muslim women
Taliban has issued a new fatwa to Rima Fakih, suggesting that she is too sexy to be handled by men around the world. Putting a fresh fatwa aganist her, Taliban belives that Rima Fakish will bring bad influence on mulim women all over the world.
Talibans have been fighting what is termed as scanty dressed and an ivasion to their culture. They are fighting Western culture all over the planet, particulary in muslim dominated countries.
Rima Fakih has argued that she as an individual deserve what she wants to do with her body. "Who the hell are these people to tell me to do with my sexy body. I know for sure that they are derprived of seeing sexy women in their own house. If they want to see us in bikini, come on board, we will show you what we have got."
Taliban leader, Omar, who wants to go by his only name, said that he has not be able to lay his hand on a single virgin woman in his tribe. "Now I know the reason why our men who die for our belief are turned down in Jannat (heaven). They don't have enough virgin woman up there to serve our brothers."
Hailing first muslim girl to win Miss America, one of the judge, Mr. Stone says, The girls were given a choice ... some of them were more comfortable in shirts, some were more comfortable in suspenders and high heels ... I think it was really tastefully done."
This piece is complete fiction and has no resemblance to any one living or dead. Any resemblance is completely coincidental and a piece of hyper imagination.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
