The reason behind the change in tornado patterns remains unclear. The short length, unpredictable arrival and relatively small size of tornadoes make them difficult to study. But researchers suggest that climate change may be a possible explanation for the change in patterns. Why, I never would've expected that!
The weather phenomenon occurs during periods of atmospheric instability and when there are large differences in wind speed in a given area known as "wind shear," both of which could be affected by temperature increases. I thought temperature variation drove a lot of the earth's weather; maybe even all of it.
The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, also shows an increased variability in the number of tornadoes from one outbreak to another. Higher variability means that large outbreaks that result in multiple tornadoes can be more common while the total number of tornadoes in a given year remains relatively constant. Maybe more people have cell phone cameras, resulting in more reporting?
"The science is still open," says study co-author Michael Tippett, a climate and weather researcher at Columbia University, in a press release. "It could be global warming, but our usual tools, the observational record and computer models, are not up to the task of answering this question yet." But don't you worry, son. A couple of more studies from big grants and the science will be settled, soon enough.
Posted by: Bobby ||
03/09/2016 14:00 ||
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#1
Maybe more people have cell phone cameras, resulting in more reporting?
Back in my 'ute', storm chasing and reporting was not considered a hobby or sport in the general public. Usual reporting was someone on the end of a land line calling the sheriff who in turn might call the local radio or tv station to provide a warning, as only large metro areas had independents (like a strong tv station) that could afford their own radar.
Now they have people with tricked out pads, laptops, GPS, GoPros, camera phones, et al, chasing literally the possibility of a twister touching down. There are even tours set up for foreigners who pay for the opportunity. Yep, more reporting.
#2
You mentioned it, the quality of radar has improved dramatically since even when I began storm spotting. Radar indications were still a bit drawn in marker. Today they are 3d prints which can be read in real time and HD on a phone. It helps get a spotter to a location where, and only if a funnel touches the ground, can it be called a tornado.
In darkness or low visibility (rain) it can be difficult to actually see ground debris indications.
So they have radar displayed rotation/hook and low visibility at that GPS indicated position, tornado.
Higher variability means that large outbreaks that result in multiple tornadoes can be more common while the total number of tornadoes in a given year remains relatively constant.
Also means low to no tornados in an outbreak then as well.
And out here - periods of atmospheric instability is called Spring. There is a second tornado season in the fall but those tend to be more scenic.
Don't get me started on the storm tourists. No, I get it, I wanted to see one until I was in one. Too many drivers going way too fast for weather conditions and eyes not on the road. For us official spotters, the chasers are more dangerous than the storms. If you do, do your research - check their driving record.
#4
Now they have people with tricked out pads, laptops, GPS, GoPros, camera phones, et al, chasing literally the possibility of a twister touching down. There are even tours set up for foreigners who pay for the opportunity.
I am a trained spotter and volunteered for a local emergency assistance team and NWS (SkyWarn) for several years. It was interesting.
You mostly get really bored (plus cold and/or wet) until that first time you see a rotating wall cloud forming a tornado right in front of you.
Puckers you up a bit.
I never did 'chase' a tornado (moved out of their way a couple times, though).
Do agree, swksvolFF. The amateur chasers are more dangerous than the storms. You mostly know in what direction the storm will move. Not so much the other folks.
Posted by: Mullah Richard ||
03/09/2016 18:24 Comments ||
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#6
Yeah. A bit.
We follow the tornados until out of our section, stopping to search/rescue if need be. Oooohs and Awwws are for the chasers, we do the Oooohs Hiiiit.
Knew a couple guys who wanted to buy a van to chase tornados, and sell seats to help pay for their jollies. EU6305, don't ride with those guys.
It is that time of year; Daylight Savings is when I go review my shelter supplies (and smoke detectors and other battery dependent devices). Best ProTip I have come across yet is have an extra pair of shoes for everybody at your place of shelter. For whatever reason you and yours may not have enough time properly dress and the most widespread problem will be broken glass.
I'll ask the mods, and if I have the time, may do a thread on weather shelter supplies & ideas.
#7
That's as far as I ever followed them, too. Usually did the 'beginning' hand-off about three miles or so from the edge of my sector so we could overlap coverage. We did have fairly low-altitude terrain so the distance wasn't the issue. Heavy rains did make that extremely difficult when you couldn't see the core, though.
Always checked the path for damage and injuries or worse after they passed. Tried to help as best I could if first on the scene. Had a pretty robust first-aid kit. Also carried an axe, small chainsaw, hacksaw, bolt cutters, bottle jack, crowbars and a sledgehammer (jammed doorways, etc.). You'd think I was a 'break and enter' type from the stuff in my truck. Only had to use them a couple times and no fatalities to report. Nasty other stuff, though.
One of the classes we went to did state that two pairs of good sturdy shoes or boots, minimum.
Great idea for the 'Supply' thread.
Posted by: Mullah Richard ||
03/09/2016 21:38 Comments ||
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#8
Very nice Mullah Richard. Sure as hell isn't for anybody.
Fairly flat out here, makes for some spectacular storms.
For a map, click here. You can enlarge the map, if you open it separately.
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
Ukrainian forces, occupying a buffer zone near Gorlovka, have fired on a civilian bus as the rebels charge Ukraine with continuing a "creeping offensive" in the area, according to official rebel reports.
Meanwhile, rebel forces have lost nine effectives in fighting between last Friday through Sunday in rebel attacks on Avdievka.
A news release posted on the website of the Donetsk ministry of defense said that Ukrainian fire hit a civilian bus traveling along a bus route near the Donetsk to Gorlovka road, although the release did not elaborate as to the type of fire. Other rebel media say that Ukrainian forces have been firing mortars at nearby sectors, including at Yasinovataya near where the bus was hit.
No one was reported hurt on the bus.
The attack last Monday has been characterized by rebel officials as a creeping offensive because of how slowly the attack has developed. Both sides have armored mobile vehicles and experienced mobile troops at their disposal sufficient to force a decision at most sectors of the front, but instead of mobile warfare, the fighting has been mortar fire and occasional pot shots.
The news release by the rebel officials said that a building used by rebel forces at a checkpoint has been damaged, and due to ongoing mortar fire the road has been shut down by rebel officials.
The Donetsk-Gorlovka road is a critical road for the rebels that links Gorlovka and Donetsk, both under nearly constant Ukrainian artillery fire since the summer of 2014. The area that is blocked by mortar fire also includes a railroad used by the rebels.
The closure of the road to civilian traffic has caused tie-ups on nearby roads, according to the Gorlovka Pravda news outlet.
A total of 60 vehicles traveling from Gorlovka to Ukrainian occupied Artemovsk have been forced to return, while traffic has been slowed in the other direction as well.
As for the offensive, Donetsk ministry of defense spokesman Lt. Colonel Eduard Basurin claimed that the Ukrainian moves are an attempt by the Ukrainians to began a "semi circle" around Gorlovka, as a prelude to encirclement. Past data from Ukrainian sources have indicated that an encirclement battle will likely go through Gorlovka towards points southeast, much in the same way Ukrainian forces attempted to encircle Donetsk city back in the summer of 2014.
The encirclement battles back in 2014 resulted in the Battle of Ilovaisk, by every account a military disaster for the Ukrainians, and Debaltstevo only six months later, which itself was a disaster for both the Ukrainian and the rebels.
In addition to blocking rail and auto traffic, a water treatment plant has come under Ukrainian artillery observers, but, as far as available reports indicate, has not come under artillery fire.
Fighting near Avdievka
According to a news report posted on the tsensor.net.us news outlet, rebel forces repeatedly have attacked Ukrainian positions in Avdievka using infantry, mortar fire and tank gun fire, from March 5th to March 8th.
According to the report nine rebel soldiers were killed in attacks on the town, and anther 13 were wounded.
A separate report filed earlier the same day said that rebel forces fired 82mm and 120mm mortar on Ukrainian positions at Opytnoye and Peski both of which are adjacent to Avdievka
Other locations under rebel fire include in Lugansk, and in Shirokino in southern Donetsk.
Ukrainian military officials saty that a total of three Ukrainian soldiers were wounded in the Peski-Avdievka area.
A report penned by a writer for Russian reserve FSB Colonel Igor Girkin's novorossinform.org news outlet, identified as Ruslan Lyapin, said that the fighting for the area of Yasinovataya has been constant since Monday.
Lyapin warned in his report that should the Ukrainians take Yasinovataya, other sectors in the area would be in danger, and that Gorlovka would be effectively surrounded. He said that the Ukrainian's creeping tactical movement would eventually force rebel forces away from some parts of the line of contact, in much the same way rebel forces were pushed out of Shirokino.
Lyapin said that Zaitsevo, to the immediate north of Gorlovka, is almost fully invested by Ukrainian forces.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com and on Twitter. You can read past articles about the 2014 war in southeastern Ukraine by clicking here.
For a map, click here. You can enlarge the map, if you open it separately.
Two unidentified Russian soldiers were nearly lynched in Gorlovka last Sunday, according to a news account which appeared in korrespondent.net
The soldiers, assigned as part of the 3rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in Gorlovka were stabbed repeatedly by a crowd locals after it was learned the men attempted to rape and rob a young woman.
The soldiers, who were held for police by locals, were apparently drunk. The wounds sustained by the soldiers were characterized as "severe".
The rebel 3rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is commanded by a Russian flag officer recently identified as Russian Federation Major General Igor Borisovich Timofeyev.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com and on Twitter. You can read past articles about the 2014 war in southeastern Ukraine by clicking here.
[Local Austria] A fight between 50 youths that left seven people wounded and five arrested has become the latest incident in an ongoing feud between young Afghans and Chechens living in Austria.
The brawl, which happened at the weekend near a youth center in Vienna's Brigittenau district, began after insults made over social media. The dispute quickly spilled into the streets, where the teens armed with knives, iron bars and wood, attacked one another in a mass uproar.
Youth center leader Gabriele Langer said there had been no indication beforehand that there was a problem, and that the fight had suddenly broke out when a group of young Chechens left the center and met the Afghans outside. Most of the brawlers fled when police arrived, although five were arrested and seven people aged between 14 and 17-years-old were hurt, some with life-threatening injuries.
Following the fight, locals said many residents now had a "bad feeling", with witness Maria Ritt saying, "I feel uncomfortable if I go out alone."
Ten years ago around 30,000 Chechens were granted asylum in Austria, making them at that time the biggest diaspora of that ethnic community in Europe. By the end of 2014, however, the number of Afghans had overtaken the number of Chechens, and with it ethnic clashes between the groups on issues related to women, drugs, and control of territory increased.
Police have been called out to major fights between these two groups throughout Austria, including in Vienna, Graz, Salzburg, Wels, Linz and St. Pölten.
Posted by: Bov Flimbers ||
03/09/2016 1:31 Comments ||
Top||
#2
cultaral enrichment!!!
A tree at a time, till there are no more;
Each one less regretted, and more obscure:
Old oaks in the forest
Crash down in mute chorus...
No encores for Nikolaus Harnoncourt.
BERLIN (AP) - Two Israeli agents operating in Germany had their cover blown by a suspicious retiree after their car became stuck in the mud by a northern canal, police said Tuesday.
Police in Neumuenster were alerted Dec. 17 to "suspicious people near the canal" by the mayor of nearby Quarnbek, who received a call from an elderly woman after she confronted the two but didn't believe their story that they were scouting the area for a summer sailing regatta.
When officers arrived, the men "immediately identified themselves as being from whatever security service," said police spokesman Rainer Wetzel, adding "I don't know if Mossad was explicitly mentioned."
The armed agents with diplomatic status were there to monitor the delivery of a new German-built submarine bought by Israel and were able to avoid any trouble by producing all documentation necessary.
"Everything was checked and everything was in order," Wetzel said, and police and firefighters helped free their car from the mud.
"I think it was embarrassing for them," Wetzel said.
German broadcaster NDR cited the mayor of Quarnbek as saying he has sent a bill for 1,263.01 euros ($1,392.85) to the Israeli Embassy for the use of the small town's services, but hasn't yet received a reply.
Emmanuel Nahshon, spokesman for the Israeli Foreign Ministry, said he had no comment.
#1
I remember trying to help some Israelis free their Rav 4 after they buried it up to the axles on the beach. Instead of doing anything about it, they called a friend who had a four-wheel drive pickup. Who immediately buried it up to the axles while trying to position his pickup to tow the other car. The tide was coming in quickly, and they would just not listen to reason or do anything other than jabber amongst themselves while trying to figure out a solution. So I left.
ALBUQUERQUE (KRQE) – State officials say four Mexican foreign nationals were were caught trying to fraudulently obtain New Mexico driver’s licenses on Tuesday.
Two of the people were arrested after trying to use false residency documents to get licenses at an Albuquerque MVD office. A third person who officials say was already in possession of a fraudulently obtained New Mexico license, was there trying to help them.
All three are said live in Arlington, Texas, and have been deported in the past.
A fourth person who lives in Grand Prairie, Texas was also arrested for trying to fraudulently obtain a license.
[DAWN] UMERKOT: Police on Monday took into custody an underage bride, bridegroom and their parents in Dhoronaro, 29 kilometres from here, for breaking the law against marriage of underage girls. The bride is said to be 13 years old and the groom 51 years old.
SSP Rukhsar Ahmed Khawar formed a special team comprising two DSPs and in-charge of CIA to stop the marriage.
The team cordoned off the area and incarcerated Youse'll never take me alive coppers!... [BANG!]... Ow!... I quit! the wedding party when they were leaving the area on a truck after solemnising the marriage.
They were identified as 13-year-old bride Shabiran daughter of Bashir Manganhar of Fazul Chopan village near Dhoronaro and 51-year-old bridegroom Juma of Chak 123 of Rahimyar Khan, Punjab, and others.
The girl’s father said that he was unaware of any law against marriage of underage girls but ruled out the sale of his daughter.
He said that he too was shocked to see that the bridegroom was much older than his daughter but he could not do anything because his father had decided the wedlock.
Police, however, believed the parents had knowingly married off the girl to an old man for the sake of money.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/09/2016 00:00 ||
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[RFE/RL] Turkey and Azerbaijan have launched joint air force exercises, Azerbaijani media have reported. Reports say servicemen from Azerbaijan's Air Force arrived in the central Turkish city of Konya on Monday to take part in the drills. The maneuvers are expected to last until March 25. In 2015, the armed forces of the two neighboring countries held both land and air force exercises.
[Wash Times] Attorney General Loretta Lynch has told the White House she does not want to be nominated to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court.
In a statement issued Tuesday, a Justice Department spokeswoman said although the Attorney General was grateful for support of those who have suggested her as a possible nominee, she thought that a nomination would "curtail her effectiveness in her current role."
"Given the urgent issues before the Department of Justice, she asked not to be considered for the position," DOJ spokeswoman Melanie Newman said.
Ms. Lynch is instead fully committed to serving the remainder of her term as Attorney General, Ms. Newman said.
Justice Antonin Scalia died last month, leaving a vacancy on the nine-member court. The Obama administration is searching for a replacement for the conservative justice.
#2
Attorney General Loretta Lynch has told the White House she does not want to be nominated to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court.
Which might lead one to believe she was 'asked' as opposed to "suggested" by unnamed others. She's staying on for what? Does she feel a Trump administration might retain her? I doubt it.
No one in the Champ regime appears to be moving or finding new employment. Why ?
#7
Lynch knows that any nomination by Obama is not going to be confirmed in the Senbate until a new President is elected (unless McConnell and the Senate Pubs cave-in which could happen. (sarc)).
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
The reason behind the change in tornado patterns remains unclear. The short length, unpredictable arrival and relatively small size of tornadoes make them difficult to study. But researchers suggest that climate change may be a possible explanation for the change in patterns. 
[Local Austria] A fight between 50 youths that left seven people wounded and five arrested has become the latest incident in an ongoing feud between young Afghans and Chechens living in Austria. 
DAWN] UMERKOT: Police on Monday took into custody an underage bride, bridegroom and their parents in Dhoronaro, 29 kilometres from here, for breaking the law against marriage of underage girls. The bride is said to be 13 years old and the groom 51 years old.
