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2024-04-02 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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Analysts assess the reasons for the intensification of the underground in the North Caucasus
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[KavkazUzel] The activation of the radical underground in the North Caucasus may be associated with external actors who are trying to worsen the situation inside Russia, but someone inside Russia is helping them, noted analysts interviewed by the Caucasian Knot.
As the Caucasian Knot reported, three people planning terrorist attacks were detained in Makhachkala and Kaspiysk during the counter-terrorism operation. According to the National Anti-Terrorism Committee, the detainees were found with automatic weapons, ammunition and an improvised explosive device. There were no casualties among civilians or losses among security forces, the committee reported. According to the head of Dagestan, Sergei Melikov, the special operation was carried out as part of strengthening security measures after the terrorist attack in Moscow.
President of the Association of Veterans of the Alpha anti-terror unit Sergei Goncharov, commenting on the counter-terrorism operation in Makhachkala and Kaspiysk, suggested that the activation of the radical underground in the North Caucasus may be related to the situation in Ukraine.
| Eventually, as we are all sons of Adam and daughters of Eve, all things connect. Though often enough the connection is very tenuous and tortured, indeed. |
“Currently, things are bad in Ukraine. They are asking for help, but what they are given is clearly not enough for them. [Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate] Budanov said earlier that in case of problems at the front, we will transfer our sabotage activities deep into Russia. And the Northern Caucasus, as you know, has always been a region with serious problems for the Russian Empire, the USSR, and Russia. That’s why they began to activate their “sleeping” cells,” he told a “Caucasian Knot” correspondent on March 31.
On March 3, during a counter-terrorism operation (CTO) in Karabulak, security forces killed six suspected militants. On March 5, sources reported that Amirkhan Gurazhev, Zelimkhan Tsuroev, Magomed Barkinkhoev, Tagir Tsuroev, Mikail Tutaev and Bers Chemurziev were killed. No losses among security forces were officially reported; according to Kommersant, five FSB officers were injured during the counter-terrorism operation in Karabulak. NAC stated that six Islamic State militants were killed in the shootout; three of the killed militants were on the federal wanted list. The "Caucasian Knot" has prepared a report "How the special operation took place in Karabulak."
Retired police colonel Amir Kolov believes that the activation of the gang underground in the North Caucasus is “an attempt to divert the real organizers of the terrorist attacks in Crocus City Hall, an attempt to pit Muslims against Russians and other peoples of Russia.”
In Dagestan, after a number of cases of extrajudicial killings of innocent people, many people do not believe what the media and official structures say about counter-terrorism operations, Kolov also told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.
On the evening of March 22, armed people broke into the Crocus City Hall concert hall in Krasnogorsk near Moscow and opened fire and also committed arson. The FSB classified the incident as a terrorist attack. By March 26, eight people had been arrested in connection with the attack. On March 27, the Ministry of Emergency Situations published a list of 143 killed in the terrorist attack. On March 29, Health Minister Mikhail Murashko announced that another victim of the terrorist attack, who was in extremely serious condition, died in the hospital. As of March 30, the number of victims of the terrorist attack increased to 551.
Senior researcher at the Center for Caucasus Problems and Regional Security at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Akhmet Yarlykapov, linked the terrorist attacks in Russia with a change in the structure of ISIS*, which turned from a territorial structure into a network structure, using the so-called “lone wolves” - lone terrorists, often independently swearing oath to terrorists. “Over the past few years, ISIS* has lost territory in Syria and Iraq and turned into a network structure with a few militants controlled by it - “islands” in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and recruited so-called “lone wolves,” he told a “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.
He also noted that with the beginning of the Northern Military District, a consensus was reached among the radicals - not to carry out terrorist attacks on the territory of Russia and Ukraine during military operations. “They decided this because in conditions of hostilities, every terrorist attack would be interpreted as assistance to one (non-Muslim) side,” Yarlykapov emphasized.
| That echoes ISIS orders not to get involved with the October 7th aftermath in the Palestinian Territories, because Hamas has sold out to Shiite/heretic Iran and the Palestinian Authority is secular Arab rather than austere Sunni Moslem — so neither merits support from properly pious Moslem jihadis. |
“Apparently, something has changed within ISIS* itself as part of its development, since this consensus has been destroyed. And, perhaps, Moscow will not be the last city to undergo such an attack - the threats of ISIS* leaders against Europe and the United States sound quite serious," he concluded.
Analysts noted that the radicals are surrendering, whereas previously they often committed, for example, suicide bombings. Sergei Goncharov suggested that we are talking about a decrease in the level of training. “ISIS fighters are trained almost from childhood, they are trained, brainwashed. Now this is not the case, and these bandits are no longer what they used to be,” he said.
| More than ever they are merely bandits with a whitewash of religion? If this were Iraq or Syria or the Philippines, I’d they were being killed off faster than they could be trained… |
Akhmet Yarlykapov also noted that, judging by the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall, the current ISIS militants are “people trained to carry out a terrorist attack, but not too much processed.”
Orientalist Ruslan Suleymanov, speaking about ISIS-Khorasan*, which allegedly claimed responsibility for the terrorist attacks, noted that the main arena of activity of this organization is Afghanistan. “Their base is people from Central Asia, especially Tajiks (they have serious media resources in Tajik, including telegram channels for recruiting recruits). But they say that there are also citizens of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Russia, although little is known about this ", he told the Caucasian Knot correspondent, adding that a distinctive feature of ISIS-Khorasan* is the use of suicide bombers.
On the day of the terrorist attack in Krasnogorsk, it became known that the terrorist organization "Islamic State"* had claimed responsibility. The New York Times noted that US officials in March gathered intelligence that the Afghanistan-based Islamic State-Khorasan was planning an attack in Moscow, and Russia was warned about it. Statements about the responsibility of ISIS-Khorasan* for the terrorist attack were given weight by the FSB report released two weeks before the terrorist attack on the prevention of an attack on a Moscow synagogue being prepared by militants of the same group. The terrorist attack on visitors to Crocus City Hall has similarities with the January terrorist attack in Iranian Kerman, for which the Islamic State also claimed responsibility, said Mina Al-Lami, an expert on extremist groups.
According to Suleymanov, the question of whether these terrorist attacks were the work of ISIS-Khorasan* is still unclear to him. “Personally, I am not entirely sure that it was this particular branch of ISIS*. If we look at the propaganda materials of this group, we will see that the perpetrator is not specifically named anywhere. ISIS* spokesman Abu Hanifa al-Ansari only stated that it was were "non-Arab lions of the Caliphate", and ISIS* in its weekly report simply allocated a separate line for Russia. Rather, we can say that in Russia there are individual militants affiliated with ISIS*. It would seem that the perpetrators of the terrorist attack in Crocus City Holle" [named] Tajiks, confirms the version of the participation of ISIS-Khorasan *. But I still have great doubts, especially since the style of the attack is not at all similar to the one used by this group, which usually sends suicide bombers," Suleymanov said.
In addition, he noted that ISIS-Khorasan simply does not have the resources to organize such an attack. “But if it is still ISIS-Khorasan*, then someone should have helped him on Russian territory. I believe that the Russian authorities must answer the question of who carried out these terrorist attacks and whether they had assistants in Russia,” - he added.
Akhmet Yarlykapov also noted that ISIS-Khorasan* mainly turns its attention to Afghanistan and has not differed in anything special outside the region. “But since no special ISIS wilayats were formed for Central Asia, the inhabitants of the region were apparently assigned to the “Khorasan wilayat”, and all the terrorist attacks committed by them were attributed to this group,” he suggested.
Yarlykapov also emphasized that in terms of tactics, “ISIS-Khorasan”* was no different from the “Caucasus Vilayat” proclaimed by ISIS*. “The tactics are the same,” he noted.
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