Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[KavkazUzel] In the North Caucasus, there is a risk of intensification of IS militants after the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall, although terrorist attacks on civilians have not been observed there since 2018, indicated veteran of the special services Sergei Goncharov and military expert Andrei Koshkin. A new round of IS activity in the region is unlikely, argued former Dagestan security official Magomed Shamilov.
As the "Caucasian Knot" wrote, on March 22, armed people broke into the Crocus City Hall concert hall in Krasnogorsk near Moscow and opened fire there, and the building was also set on fire. As a result of the terrorist attack, according to the Russian Investigative Committee as of March 24, 137 people were killed, and another 154 people were hospitalized after the terrorist attack. The FSB reported the detention of 11 suspects, four of them, citizens of Tajikistan, were arrested. Earlier, on the day of the attack, it became known that the terrorist organization "Islamic State" had claimed responsibility.
The New York Times indicated that US officials in March gathered intelligence that the Afghanistan-based Islamic State-Khorasan was planning an attack in Moscow, and Russia was warned about it. Statements about the responsibility of ISIS-Khorasan for the terrorist attack are given weight by the FSB report released two weeks before the attack on the prevention of an attack on a Moscow synagogue being prepared by militants of the same group. The terrorist attack on visitors to Crocus City Hall has similarities with the January terrorist attack in Iranian Kerman, for which the Islamic State also claimed responsibility, said Mina Al-Lami, an expert on extremist groups.
IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS, NO IS ATTACKS ON CIVILIANS HAVE BEEN RECORDED SINCE 2018
In the North Caucasian Federal District, the last time a coordinated and massive attack by militants on civilians occurred was on May 19, 2018, when the Church of the Archangel Michael in Grozny was attacked. During the clash, four militants were killed, along with a worshiper and two seconded policemen. The Caucasus branch of IS claimed responsibility for the attack on the temple, although investigators later concluded that the attackers were not affiliated with IS.
Attacks similar in typology occurred earlier: for example, on February 18, 2018, five people were killed during the celebration of Maslenitsa in Kizlyar. On the night of December 30, 2015, militants opened fire on visitors to the fortress in Derbent, killing one person. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack in Derbent.
However, after May 2018, attacks by IS members in the North Caucasus had the nature of individual terror and were directed against security forces. In particular, on December 28, 2020, there was a knife attack on police officers in Grozny - then one policeman died; the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack.
On December 31, 2019, two militants attacked a traffic police post in Magas, killing one policeman. According to investigators, the residents of Ingushetia who attacked the post were members of the Islamic State.
Moreover, even these attacks on civilians are typologically different from the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall - two of them were of a confessional nature, and none of them were associated with penetration into buildings.
EXPERTS POINTED TO THE RISK OF IS INTENSIFYING IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS
In the North Caucasus, the coordination of IS militants has weakened, says Sergei Goncharov, president of the Association of Veterans of the Alpha anti-terror unit. “In the context of the terrorist attack in Crocus, I analyzed and recalled what terrorist acts of ISIS were in the North Caucasus. And the fact that the last time ISIS attacked civilians on the territory of the North Caucasus Federal District five years ago, in 2018, means that their positions are strongly weakened. We can say with confidence that the anti-terrorist struggle in the regions of the North Caucasus has borne fruit. Chechnya and Dagestan should be especially mentioned," he told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.
However, ISIS militants may become active again in the North Caucasus, Goncharov emphasized. “We are accustomed to the fact that once there is a terrorist attack, it is somewhere in the North Caucasus, but now it happened in Moscow (in the Moscow region. - Caucasian Knot note ). This gives us reason to believe that the activities of the Islamic State in the North Caucasus Federal District have been curtailed. But ", unfortunately, this is temporary. It seems to me that in the near future we should expect their activation in the North Caucasus Federal District. Therefore, we must not let down our vigilance," he said.
A similar opinion was expressed by Andrei Koshkin, Doctor of Political Sciences, reserve colonel of the RF Armed Forces, expert of the Association of Military Political Scientists. “Five years without the activity of ISIS militants in the North Caucasus, if we are talking about acts against civilians, is an impressive period, which gives reason to believe that the fight against them was effective. Local security forces played an important role here, their work turned out to be effective. But I I would also point out that without the socio-economic policy of the federal center aimed at improving the situation of these regions, there would not have been such a result. But the fact that in the region for five years there has not been a single act of militants against civilians is a unique result ", he told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.
Andrei Koshkin is confident that the militants are looking for opportunities and will take advantage of any relaxation to become active again in the North Caucasus. "Their active activities were successfully stopped in the region. But this does not mean that we can relax. This cannot be allowed under any circumstances. After all, this is what they are waiting for. They will take advantage of any opportunity when they see that law enforcement agencies, satisfied with their work, are more are not as diligent as before. Therefore, we must not lose our vigilance, we must continue to work effectively and fight against militants not only in the North Caucasus Federal District, but throughout Russia. In this sense, we should adopt the experience of local security forces," the expert noted.
A DAGESTAN SECURITY OFFICIAL CONSIDERED A NEW ROUND OF IS ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS FEDERAL DISTRICT UNLIKELY
The security forces of the regions of the North Caucasian Federal District managed to oust the ISIS militants, says Magomed Shamilov, a former employee of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Dagestan. “The fact that there have been no terrorist attacks for several years indicates that the cells are disunited, there is no coordination and active activity. Nevertheless, our security forces managed to achieve results in this fight. The only thing that they [the militants] have succeeded in recently is - these are single attacks, mainly on security forces. But usually they were immediately destroyed,” he told the “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.
Now the activities of the Islamic State in the North Caucasian Federal District have been curtailed, Shamilov is convinced. “And I don’t think that they will be able to become active in our region. This organization has weakened in general throughout the world. Especially after the terrorist attack in Crocus, the fight against them will be intensified,” he said.
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