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2022-06-04 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

War in Ukraine. Summary 03.06.2022

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Posted by badanov 2022-06-04 00:00|| || Front Page|| [12 views ] Top

#1 The New Narrative: the time for NEGOTIATIONS is now.

1. CNN: Western allies meeting regularly to game out potential framework for Ukraine ceasefire as war hits 100th day
"Washington (CNN)Staring down the prospect of an extended stalemate in Ukraine, the US and its allies are placing a renewed emphasis on the need for a negotiated settlement to end the war... .US officials have in recent weeks been meeting regularly with their British and European counterparts to discuss potential frameworks for a ceasefire and for ending the war through a negotiated settlement, multiple sources familiar with the talks told CNN. ... [These involve] Ukraine committing to neutrality with regard to NATO in exchange for some security guarantees, and negotiations between Ukraine and Russia on the future of Crimea and the Donbas region."

2. Jeffrey Sachs [professor at Columbia and former served as an adviser to three United Nations secretaries-general]:"it is in Ukraine's interest to return to the negotiating table, which it has refused to do since late March. I believe that the US should recognize that it acted irresponsibly in pushing for NATO enlargement into Ukraine and Georgia."

3. Andrew Latham, The Hill: "Russia’s inevitable victory is [not desirable and won't be] total. The outcome of this war is a Pyrrhic victory [for Russia] at best. But it will be a victory nonetheless — and we in the West had better come to grips with that hard truth. ...

"Just as Ukraine lacks the ability to liberate all its pre-2014 territory, it also lacks the ability to liberate the recently conquered territory in the Donbas or along the Azov coast. Unlike in the north of Ukraine, these territories are central to Russian interests in Ukraine and, as such, Russia simply will not withdraw from them as it withdrew from Kyiv earlier in the war.

"Nor will Ukrainian forces – themselves, it should be noted, suffering terrible attrition all along the battle front and growing weaker with each passing day – be strong enough to compel them to do so. No, like the previous two scenarios, this one is simply an impossibility.

"And that leaves only one other conceivable outcome: a fragmented and partly dismembered Ukraine, neither fully part of the West nor entirely within the Russian sphere of influence.

"A Ukraine fragmented in that the whole of the Donbas and perhaps other territories will be left beyond Kyiv’s control; partly dismembered in that Crimea will remain part of Russia (at least in Russian eyes); and not fully part of the West in that it will not be free to join NATO or even to have a meaningful partnership with the EU. Simply put, this outcome is not only not impossible, it’s not even improbable.

"And when this final scenario comes to pass, who will have won the war in Ukraine? Well, it won’t be Ukraine."

Posted by Oye Como Va 2022-06-04 22:17|| 2022-06-04 22:17|| Front Page Top

#2 And Brandon too:

"This war will only definitively end through diplomacy. Every negotiation reflects the facts on the ground. We [want Ukraine to ] be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table."

Posted by Oye Como Va 2022-06-04 22:21|| 2022-06-04 22:21|| Front Page Top

#3 that leaves only one other conceivable outcome: a fragmented and partly dismembered Ukraine

SING 🎶
I'll dismember you
When I've forgotten all the rest
You to me were true
You to me were the best
When there is no more
I cut you to the core
Quicker than anyone I knew
When I'm all alone
In the great unknown
I'll dismember you
🎶
I'll dismember you
At the end of the trail
I had so much left to do
I had so little time to fail
There's some countries that
You don't forget
Even though you've only seen 'm one time or two
When the roses fade
And I'm in the shade
I'll dismember you

Posted by Oye Como Va 2022-06-04 22:30|| 2022-06-04 22:30|| Front Page Top

#4 And Brandon too:

"This war will only definitively end through diplomacy.

If a headless chicken speaks, is it worth listening to?

Posted by trailing wife 2022-06-04 23:54|| 2022-06-04 23:54|| Front Page Top

23:54 trailing wife
23:35 SteveS
22:32 DarthVader
22:30 Oye Como Va
22:29 Airandee
22:21 Oye Como Va
22:17 Oye Como Va
21:00 magpie
20:59 magpie
20:16 NN2N1
19:37 Injun Ebbaick7105
18:56 Raj
18:32 M. Murcek
18:30 M. Murcek
18:20 trailing wife
17:55 trailing wife
17:51 Classer
17:17 M. Murcek
17:10 CrazyFool
17:08 CrazyFool
17:05 CrazyFool
15:53 Matt
15:46 M. Murcek
15:45 M. Murcek