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Posted by Fred 2012-07-24 00:00||
Front Page|| [206 views ]
File under: Govt of Syria
#1 so what putie..
Posted by Water Modem 2012-07-24 00:50||
#2 My suggested illustration for this article would have to be the cover to Harry Turtledove's _The Guns of the South_.
Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2012-07-24 00:56||
#3 In this case the Russians are correct. Not only would there be civil war but the Islamists would win and there would be no hope of a secular government in Syria. It would likely become even closer to Iran than it is now. There isn't a popular secular leader to take over for Assad. If Assad leaves, the Brotherhood takes over.
That said, it didn't have to be this way. We gave Assad many chances to come to his senses over the years and engage with us and forsake Iran. Had he done so, he would likely still be in power and his army wouldn't be evaporating on him.
Russia isn't going to be able to protect him and it is too late for him to "repent" now. He's done. It's just a matter of time.
The choices are: 1. Brotherhood runs the country 2. We somehow occupy the place, install our OWN secular government there for three generations and then turn the place over to them when the third generation is old enough to assume the reins of power.
Posted by crosspatch 2012-07-24 01:37||
#4 See also TOPIX > ARMENIAN EXPERT: DIVIDING SYRIA WILL LEAD TO SPLITTING [of] IRAN.
Looks like Vlad + Dimitri have no good, likable options for Russia's agenda no matter what happens???
Posted by JosephMendiola 2012-07-24 03:00||
#5 Putin is the one to watch. He is the game changer. Where is the leadership of China in this. As the worlds economies implode domestic issues will take center stage. This area of the world will take on less of a sense of urgency.
Posted by Dale 2012-07-24 06:56||
#6 Will Putin continue to support Assad after the Chemical Weapons are used? Because they will be, it's only a matter of time until it gets to that desperate of a point.
Posted by Charles 2012-07-24 13:58||
#7 The US wants to push the old Regimes of the ME towrads modernism, but many of the Islamic Radicals are anti-Democratic, anti-Secular, anti-anti-Tolerance or Diversity, anti-Israel, + anti Christian/non-Islam.
Save for the disputed Golan Heights + parts of Lebanon, SYRIA's GOVT-REGIME has histor been seen by the international community as mainly ISOLATIONIST, keeping its GeoPol interests + Milfors, etc. to itself, i.e. within its own borders.
RUSSIA SEES THE THREAT - THE END OF ASSAD IN ISOLATIONIST SYRIA WILL CHANGE THE EQUATION IN THE ME BETWEEN ISRAEL + ITS MUSLIM NEIGHBORS, PERHAPS MORESO FOR ISRAEL VEE POST-MUBARAK, MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD-LED EGYPT. Israel is slowly losing its "buffer" states, which will leave behind PRO-SHARIA, PRO-CALIPHATE/UMMAH, and espec PRO-NUCLEAR, HOSTILE ISLAMIST GOVTS AT ITS BORDERS.
Last one is JORDAN - Islamist Iran wants Lebanon, Syrian, + even Cyprus Naval Bases + other, while Brotherhood-led post-Mubarak Egypt wants to assert its rights in the Sinai.
DANGEROUS, EVEN CATASTROPHIC, "CATCH-22" SITUATION FOR THE US-WEST/ALLIES - THE "GOOD GUY" REBELS MAY PROVE MORE MILPOL OR GEOPOL DANGEROUS THAN THE COLD WAR "BAD GUYS".
Posted by JosephMendiola 2012-07-24 20:17||