Article

2008-12-19 Europe

World Bank: Russia may need help if oil falls more

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Posted by GolfBravoUSMC 2008-12-19 11:36|| || Front Page|| [2 views ] Top

#1 tough

Posted by rabid whitetail 2008-12-19 12:14|| 2008-12-19 12:14|| Front Page Top

#2 Still feel like being a bully, Putie-pie?

Posted by DarthVader 2008-12-19 12:27|| 2008-12-19 12:27|| Front Page Top

#3 Russia will be fine. They have the second largest foreign exchange reserves in the world (behind China), around $500 billion.

Longer term they need to worry about dropping production. Foreign oil companies aren't likely to go in again after their operations were seized by Putin and his cronies.

Posted by ed 2008-12-19 12:34|| 2008-12-19 12:34|| Front Page Top

#4 Dropping production is, I suspect, harder said than done.

It would require a complete rework of the business model and a complete restructure of the oil business.
Going full-on is easy. Pumping just enough to support prices is a job I would not want. It would be much more painful in terms of unemployment and cashflow management than most businesspersons are capable of. It would be much easier to just pump what you can and trust the market.

Posted by bigjim-ky 2008-12-19 12:43|| 2008-12-19 12:43|| Front Page Top

#5 I imagine the World Bank would look askance should one of their clients attempt to harass the neighbors.

Posted by trailing wife">trailing wife 2008-12-19 13:27|| 2008-12-19 13:27|| Front Page Top

#6 dropping = declining

Russian oil production had been rising until 2007. 2008 production will be less than 2007 while domestic consumption is up. So Russia hasn't been able to take full advantage of $100+ prices. Future years look like a steady decline. Same for Russian natural gas.

Posted by ed 2008-12-19 13:31|| 2008-12-19 13:31|| Front Page Top

#7 Ed, are the declines due to decline in resources or problems with infrastructure? Can they continue to develop what they have or are they not doing so since Putin and his pals took over?

Infrastructure can be fixed, it's just Engineering and money. Management problems can be more difficult to deal with in a Russian political environment.

Posted by tipover 2008-12-19 14:50|| 2008-12-19 14:50|| Front Page Top

#8 tipover,
Russia's like everywhere else - the big, easy stuff has been found and substantially developed. The next barrel is going to be harder to find, harder to produce, and cost more.
That said, financing, management, and engineering DO matter (Russian engineering is actually pretty good if the first two problems can be overcome), so part of the production fall-off is not resource based.

Posted by Glenmore">Glenmore 2008-12-19 16:34|| 2008-12-19 16:34|| Front Page Top

#9 ^^^^^^^^^^^Listen to Glenmore. He know's the black arts....

Posted by .5MT 2008-12-19 16:42|| www.cybernations.net]">[www.cybernations.net] 2008-12-19 16:42|| Front Page Top

#10 Gee, I guess doing everything they could to get back in the "World's Biggest Assholes" list wasn't all that great an idea, huh?

Like I said several years ago now, when they manage to elect someone who is NOT either a) a hopeless lush or b) an ex-KGB stooge and wannabe dictator, I'll take them seriously. Maybe.

Posted by mojo">mojo 2008-12-19 16:47|| 2008-12-19 16:47|| Front Page Top

#11 NET POSTERS > proclaim that Russia's economy cannot survive = will utterly inevitably collapse iff world oil prices stay at US$30.00 -$40.000???

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-12-19 20:47|| 2008-12-19 20:47|| Front Page Top

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