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2008-08-20 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Russia warns of response "beyond diplomacy" to US missile shield
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Posted by Frank G 2008-08-20 14:17|| || Front Page|| [4 views ]  Top

#1 Russia says its response to the further development of a U.S. missile shield in Poland will go beyond diplomacy.

I'd be looking for them to make an armored run on Tbilisi very soon. Bad Boys, Bad Boys.
Posted by Besoeker 2008-08-20 14:34||   2008-08-20 14:34|| Front Page Top

#2 What a stupid thing for them to say because now they have to back it up or lose face. They're willing to go to war over this?
Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305 2008-08-20 14:40||   2008-08-20 14:40|| Front Page Top

#3 Or maybe they'll settle for shutting off the gas again.
Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305 2008-08-20 14:41||   2008-08-20 14:41|| Front Page Top

#4  I'd be looking for them to make an armored run on Tbilisi very soon.

That would be a lot more expensive than simply leveling Tblisi with the SS-21 batteries the Russians have deployed in S. Ossetia.
Posted by mrp 2008-08-20 14:51||   2008-08-20 14:51|| Front Page Top

#5 You know, the Russians haven't been shy in saying that even though their stuff might not be as good as the west's, there is a quality in quantity. They could, based of previous counts, could easily overwhelm our missile defense. So, why the temper tantrum? Are their missiles so degraded most won't launch? Aliens stole them?
It just seems weird to me that it is the west saying that the defense could be easily saturated by many Russian missiles, but it is the Russians that are screaming about it.
Just wondering...
Posted by DarthVader 2008-08-20 14:51||   2008-08-20 14:51|| Front Page Top

#6 If the Russian issue degenerates over the next weeks and months, and Obama takes a conciliatory stance towards the Ruskies, McCain should think about dusting off this oldie but goodie, with a few updates, of course...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHO4M_Tar7A
Posted by gb506 2008-08-20 14:53||   2008-08-20 14:53|| Front Page Top

#7 What a stupid thing for them to say because now they have to back it up or lose face. They're willing to go to war over this?

I would guess yes. I see it as an excuse for what seem to be plans of expanding influence in the oil markets. One more reason to get off foreign energy dependence. If the US were to drop out, that would make this option far less attractive to the Russians. But what would they do then?
Posted by gorb 2008-08-20 15:05||   2008-08-20 15:05|| Front Page Top

#8 "Are you feelin' lucky, punk?"
Posted by mojo">mojo  2008-08-20 15:05||   2008-08-20 15:05|| Front Page Top

#9 Darth Vader,
we spend a great deal of money maintaining our nuclear deterrent. If those garbage cans that rolled into Georgia are any indication of what condition the rest of the stuff is in, they haven't got jack squat. They looked like the same shit they were driving around before 91. All the good stuff stays in Moscow for parades. So I don't know if they could launch more than a couple of nukes if they maintain them like the rest of that junk.
Posted by Ebbolumble Peacock1813 2008-08-20 15:39||   2008-08-20 15:39|| Front Page Top

#10 Getting ourselves less dependent on foreign energy is fine, Im all for it. But what about the rest of the world? Our allies will be the ones that suffer from russia's use of energy as a weapon, not us.
Posted by bigjim-ky 2008-08-20 15:41||   2008-08-20 15:41|| Front Page Top

#11 "They're willing to go to war over this?"

Probably not but I think they are betting that we aren't and so we will back down if they seem serious enough and since they "own" most of the Western media (being the world leader of the Left), they probably believe they can turn public opinion in such a way as to make whatever reality they want.

They will get bellicose, our media will portray it as a reasonable reaction to Western aggression, and the people will come out against it and Russia gets their way. The same thing happened with the "neutron bomb" back in the 1980's.
Posted by crosspatch 2008-08-20 15:57||   2008-08-20 15:57|| Front Page Top

#12 Russia would like to let the Iranians play the crazy role and they rebuild relationships as the only guy the Russians listen to. If the Iranians can't threaten with missiles their threat is limited.
Posted by rjschwarz 2008-08-20 16:11||   2008-08-20 16:11|| Front Page Top

#13 I'm with Darth on this. I'm suspecting that Russian missile capability is deteriorating rapidly and they are not up to replacing it. Perhaps they foresee a day when the missile defense will put a major dent in their offense.
Posted by Darrell 2008-08-20 16:17||   2008-08-20 16:17|| Front Page Top

#14 Darrell - there should be a way to game it a bit to find out. Just how to do it without a big bang is the problem..

I wonder what the production and reprocessing conditions are like. Even down to basics such as laser or ink jet cartridges used. Plenty of room in them for sensors and recording. Same for MBs in computers etc... The old keyboard proc is always a good one.
Extra sensors in autos etc...
Modified engine computers....
plenty of ways to either collect info or have them destroy all their equipment trying to be safe.
Rumors...
Traffic lights that cause work stoppages ....
Posted by 3dc 2008-08-20 16:35||   2008-08-20 16:35|| Front Page Top

#15 You have a nasty streak backed up by ability, 3dc. I'm awfully glad you're on our side.

since they "own" most of the Western media (being the world leader of the Left), they probably believe they can turn public opinion in such a way as to make whatever reality they want.

The last poll I saw said only 30% of Americans now believe the legacy media are not woefully biased, which certainly explains the fall in circulation, share numbers and ad revenue. Russia will not find it as easy to sway American opinion as in the past. As for the Europeans, I have no idea. Thoughts from Rantburg's foreign correspondents?
Posted by trailing wife ">trailing wife  2008-08-20 16:50||   2008-08-20 16:50|| Front Page Top

#16 3dc, not a new idea, Chinese are trying that as we speak.
Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-20 16:52||   2008-08-20 16:52|| Front Page Top

#17 Getting ourselves less dependent on foreign energy is fine, Im all for it. But what about the rest of the world? Our allies will be the ones that suffer from russia's use of energy as a weapon, not us.

energy is fungible - what matters is reducing demand on the world market to bring down the price. Also the most important things we can do, new technologies for solar, wind, alt vehicle fuels, conservation, we will share with our allies. hell, with our adversaries as well.
Posted by liberalhawk 2008-08-20 17:01||   2008-08-20 17:01|| Front Page Top

#18 LH, sure as for sharing with adversaries, but let's kick their but first, mkay?
Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-20 17:04||   2008-08-20 17:04|| Front Page Top

#19 What i mean is, if we come up with something good on energy, and the chinese copy it, thats to the good net-net, even if it helps the Chinese.
Posted by liberalhawk 2008-08-20 17:05||   2008-08-20 17:05|| Front Page Top

#20 kick butt... PIMF
Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-20 17:06||   2008-08-20 17:06|| Front Page Top

#21 The last poll I saw said only 30% of Americans now believe the legacy media are not woefully biased,

of course a good portion of the 70% think the MS media is biased to the right. ;)

On the whole, on the Georgia thing, Id say the US media has done a pretty good job of covering it.

Posted by liberalhawk 2008-08-20 17:07||   2008-08-20 17:07|| Front Page Top

#22 It looks like wounded pride to me,

HOW DARE YOU PUT UP A SHIELD IN FRONT OF ME, GET THAT THING OUT OF MY FACE.
That kinda stuff.

Answer should be a softly worded "Fuck You".
Only attackers are worried about a possible enemy's defensive measures.
Posted by Redneck Jim">Redneck Jim  2008-08-20 17:09||   2008-08-20 17:09|| Front Page Top

#23 A good point, LH. As long as oil tick shrivel and jihadi funding dries out. Any idea how to send a bear to hibernate?
Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-20 17:10||   2008-08-20 17:10|| Front Page Top

#24 Never forget that the Trans-Siberian RR can be modulated. We did it in the KLM crash years.
Posted by 3dc 2008-08-20 17:17||   2008-08-20 17:17|| Front Page Top

#25 3dc, not sure what you are alluding to.

In any case I would skip modulation and go for a wholesome transformation.
Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-20 17:36||   2008-08-20 17:36|| Front Page Top

#26 I wager the response will be a "missile defense system" in Cuba and maybe Venezuela or Nicaragua.

Maybe real, maybe only for show
Posted by Sherese Jones6358 2008-08-20 17:49||   2008-08-20 17:49|| Front Page Top

#27 Russians are going to rediscover just how hard it is to engage in an arms race with the world's richest and technically advanced nations. Especially with less than half the USSR's population and as energy exports decline.
Posted by ed 2008-08-20 18:03||   2008-08-20 18:03|| Front Page Top

#28 And surrounded by nations that are unfriendly and if conquered would be easy to supply with stingers and other guerrilla necessities. The reality for Russia is not good so they are trying to pull up and act big. Dictators need to have an external enemy, Putin recreated the cold war and used an easy victory in Georgia to pump up the patriotism but this sort of thing will not last. Especially if we have a way to disturb their vodka production.
Posted by rjschwarz 2008-08-20 18:17||   2008-08-20 18:17|| Front Page Top

#29 On the whole, on the Georgia thing, Id say the US media has done a pretty good job of covering it.

Only because the MSM hadn't yet gotten their talking points from their handlers. All the left was basically silent for a few days until they could receive their instructions. Once they had then they started with the russian propaganda. Unfortunately for them the media had gone so far in the one direction it will take time for them to modify their trajectory. If this continues for any length of time you will see the revisionists changing their tunes.

This points to a certain dwell time in the ability of the russians to get their message out to their underlings here. Something on the order of a month or two. This is a weakness and it is a window of opportunity for the west that you can expect the opposition to work feverishly to close.

That effort, moreover, will probably lead to them telegraphing their next actions. If you start seeing the left villainizing Ukraine or Poland then we will be forewarned that something is in the wind.
Posted by DanNY">DanNY  2008-08-20 18:22|| http://www.nygoe.wordpress.com]">[http://www.nygoe.wordpress.com]  2008-08-20 18:22|| Front Page Top

#30 Russia is feeling butt hurt over this for some reason. Who's cares the reason. Keep it up.
Posted by Mike N. 2008-08-20 19:01||   2008-08-20 19:01|| Front Page Top

#31 LH, you missed coal. It is the only energy source that can scale and replace the gas in our cars.

As for media bias, Rasmussen July 21, 2008:
found that 49% of voters believe most reporters will try to help the Democrat with their coverage, up from 44% a month ago.

Just 14% believe most reporters will try to help McCain win, little changed from 13% a month ago. Just one voter in four (24%) believes that most reporters will try to offer unbiased coverage.
Posted by ed 2008-08-20 19:31||   2008-08-20 19:31|| Front Page Top

#32 The Russkies have just handed the election to McCain. They'll be sorry.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-08-20 19:36||   2008-08-20 19:36|| Front Page Top

#33 I'm thinking Georgia is a misdirection ploy to divert world attention from Russia's Artic adventures.

Plus, you've got to show that YOU have game and are willing to play it, before you can sucker countries like Iran, Cuba, and Hugo-stan into fighting proxy wars for you.
Posted by Hyper 2008-08-20 20:47||   2008-08-20 20:47|| Front Page Top

#34 I'm thinking Georgia is a misdirection ploy to divert world attention from Russia's Artic adventures

And Iran's imminent nuclear breakthroughs, I suspect.
Posted by lotp 2008-08-20 20:56||   2008-08-20 20:56|| Front Page Top

#35 What silliness is Russia getting up to in the Arctic?
Posted by trailing wife">trailing wife  2008-08-20 21:57||   2008-08-20 21:57|| Front Page Top

#36 the same silliness the canadians are, claiming the seas there.

Which used to covered with ice, doncha know.

But global warming is a myth propounded by evil lefties who want to take your SUVs away, so you neednt worry.
Posted by liberalhawk 2008-08-20 22:10||   2008-08-20 22:10|| Front Page Top

#37 Except that it's still covered with ice.
Posted by ed 2008-08-20 22:31||   2008-08-20 22:31|| Front Page Top

#38 According to Dick Morris, Putin isn't necessarily in control:

Meet Igor Sechin, nominally the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia. In fact, he is the dominant power in the Kremlin. In Russia, the speculation is over whether Putin is his puppet! According to top Kremlinologists, Sechin was calling the shots when Russia invaded Georgia.

Take a minute to look at Sechin’s photo. It explains all you need to know about him!

Robert Amsterdam, an international lawyer who knows all about the inner workings in Moscow, calls the invasion, in part, "an effort to sidetrack Dmitry Medvedev,” the newly elected Russian president who has focused on bringing to Russia the rule of law. Determined to show real power and to trivialize the legalisms of Medvedev, Sechin and Putin ignored the Russian president in invading their neighbor.

But Amsterdam makes a larger and more important point: The corporatist leadership of Russia, entirely dependent on oil and gas revenues for its economic viability, has an essential stake in promoting global instability. A stable world encourages a drop in oil prices. It is no coincidence that Russia is at the core of the two major threats to world stability: Iran and the invasion of Georgia. Worried by a major drop in oil prices, creating severe economic problems for Russia, the Kremlin has a cosmic interest in promoting turbulence whenever and wherever it can.

Add to threat, Joel Rosenberg believes Ezekiel prophecy teaches Iran and Russia are allies. Russia has space technology and if they are willing to share it, there is no end of bad guys willing to use it. I just hate to think they are depraved enough to ally themselves with Islamists just to spite Americans.
Posted by Danielle 2008-08-20 22:32||   2008-08-20 22:32|| Front Page Top

#39 #37


from wiki
The NSIDC also reported that, for the first time in recorded history, the Northwest Passage opened to ships without the need of icebreakers[2][15]. The main channel of this passage (Lancaster Sound to M'Clure Strait) has been open since about August 11. As of September 10, the Northeast Passage remained blocked by a narrow band of sea ice around Severnaya Zemlya[2].

yeah theres still ice up there, but its the passage that at least the Canadians are interested in (and i think the Russians)

The dream of Frobisher, Verrazano, Cartier Henry Hudson, at last!!! Burn MORE Coal!
Posted by liberalhawk 2008-08-20 22:38||   2008-08-20 22:38|| Front Page Top

#40 I just hate to think they are depraved enough to ally themselves with Islamists just to spite Americans.

They were depraved enough to ally themselves with the Nazis during WWII.
Posted by Besoeker 2008-08-20 22:40||   2008-08-20 22:40|| Front Page Top

#41 dick morris is confused enough on US politics, I dont expect him to understand Russian politics.

Ezekial is a call to the Jewish people, not a forecast of 21st century politics.

"I will take from thee a heart of stone, and put in a heart of flesh"

Words to ponder always. And Im 13 again when I hear them ;)
Posted by liberalhawk 2008-08-20 22:41||   2008-08-20 22:41|| Front Page Top

#42 I suspect that if Putin allies with the Iranians, it will be in pursuit of the ever illusive breakout to the Indian Ocean more than out of spite.
Posted by liberalhawk 2008-08-20 22:42||   2008-08-20 22:42|| Front Page Top

#43 Ooh, lookie. This year's colder than last with 15% more sea ice. The NW passage didn't open up last year and won't open this year either. The solar trend (therefore earth's) forecasts colder seasons.
Posted by ed 2008-08-20 22:48||   2008-08-20 22:48|| Front Page Top

#44 We and China have similar needs... The two of us should consider the advantages of working together.
Posted by 3dc 2008-08-20 22:48||   2008-08-20 22:48|| Front Page Top

#45 "I will take from thee a heart of stone, and put in a heart of flesh"

Words to ponder always. And Im 13 again when I hear them ;)

Your bar mitzah portion, dear liberalhawk? Mine was Isaih:

The mountains will dace like rams, the hills like lambs"

When a child just beginning to reach toward adulthood spends half a year working to msster and understand a single passage, it colours the rest of his life.
Posted by trailing wife">trailing wife  2008-08-20 23:41||   2008-08-20 23:41|| Front Page Top

#46 MAGOG. Petulant children. Bullies.
Posted by newc">newc  2008-08-20 23:49||   2008-08-20 23:49|| Front Page Top

#47 Northwest Passage navigable, says federal ice authority
Randy Boswell , Canwest News Service
Published: Wednesday, August 13, 2008
The Northwest Passage has been declared "navigable" again this summer by the federal government's ice authority, the latest indication of how Canada's polar frontier is being transformed by retreating ice and the prospect of increased shipping, tourism and resource development.

While noting that the southern route of the passage is "not yet open water" and that "lots of ice" remains in the Larsen Sound area east of Victoria Island, Canadian Ice Service senior forecaster Luc Desjardins told Canwest News Service on Wednesday that "a navigable corridor surely exists now as one can avoid the various ice floes."

Vast stretches of the passage in the western Arctic are fully cleared of ice, part of an "unprecedented" opening of the Beaufort Sea caused by thinning ice, strong winds and ocean currents that have pushed floes north

DO look at the NSDIC site yourself, it has lots of interesting material too. DONT rely on what the head in the sanders say about it.
Posted by liberalhawk 2008-08-20 23:52||   2008-08-20 23:52|| Front Page Top

#48 That sea ice diagram is from the NSDIC site.

part of an "unprecedented" opening of the Beaufort Sea caused by thinning ice, strong winds and ocean currents that have pushed floes north

As you posted. A storm does not make a an ice free season. And to drill you will need an entire summer or more of open water to drill, install pumps, lay pipeline. If not, ice will crush the drilling platform and any equipment.
Posted by ed 2008-08-20 23:58||   2008-08-20 23:58|| Front Page Top

23:58 ed
23:58 liberalhawk
23:57 trailing wife
23:56 liberalhawk
23:52 liberalhawk
23:49 newc
23:44 Sgt. Mom
23:41 trailing wife
23:26 Muggsy Glink
22:48 3dc
22:48 ed
22:43 Pappy
22:42 liberalhawk
22:41 3dc
22:41 liberalhawk
22:40 Besoeker
22:39 ed
22:38 liberalhawk
22:32 Danielle
22:31 ed
22:30 liberalhawk
22:30 badanov
22:27 liberalhawk
22:27 Shieldwolf









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