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2008-01-09 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-01-09 09:27|| || Front Page|| [8 views ] Top

#1 Amen. This will only assure that they will try again.

Posted by Pholugum Stalin1270 2008-01-09 21:27|| 2008-01-09 21:27|| Front Page Top

#2 Keep in mind:

1. Narrow strait, with even narrower traffic lane. Perfect location.

2. Iranian naval doctrine Additional information on strategy and tactics is here

3. As part of that doctrine, Iran keeps U.S. warships in the region under close observation and gathers intel on them. It's likely they know who's coming in or leaving days before they arrive.

4. In addition to small craft, mines, and submarines, Iran maintains shore based anti-ship missile batteries. Somehow all you wannabe Nelsons missed them. These missiles are Chinese-origin. Some are C-802s (supposedly extended range), similar to the Sunburn-type that hit the Saar 5 corvette off Lebanon. Others are modernized/extended range HY-2 (Silkworm) missiles. There's a lot of them (it's also likely the Iranians have acquired Chinese copies of the Exocet for use by sea and air-borne platforms, but that doesn't necessarily play a part here).

5. The recent IRGCN incident with the USN appears similar to Hisb'allah's successful attempt to draw the IDF into combat in South Lebanon.

In other words, instigate, draw the opponent in, and respond with massive, prepared, force when the opponent 'retaliates'. Had the USN ships fired on the IRGCN boats, it's certain that the IRGC was ready with a response.

There would be a global incident; probably lots of confusion, allegations and counter-allegations, but the bottom line is, three USN ships would have been attacked. Likely badly damaged. Possibly sunk. Iran would have the 'justified' war it wants; or at the very least, a propaganda coup. No doubt the mechanism for disseminating that line was in place with sympathetic outlets.

What worked against it was superior intel: knowledge of Iranian naval doctrine and tactics, long-standing awareness of shore-based missile installations, etc. Combine that with superb discipline and professionalism, and a potential crisis on the eve of a Presidential visit to the Middle East was averted.

Posted by Pappy 2008-01-09 21:31|| 2008-01-09 21:31|| Front Page Top

#3 Pappy, another reason I tend to stick to snark and not masterful military genius...

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2008-01-09 22:36|| 2008-01-09 22:36|| Front Page Top

23:47 trailing wife
23:46 Alaska Paul
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23:14 Chuck Simmins
22:36 OldSpook
22:36 Frank G
22:26 JosephMendiola
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22:17 Crinter Forkbeard7937
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22:00 Halliburton - No Comment Division
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21:31 Pappy
21:27 Pholugum Stalin1270
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