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2005-08-12 Iraq-Jordan

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Posted by DanNY 2005-08-12 06:57|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Ethnic federalism will fail as an idea, because of the mixed-ethnic places. The obvious solution is to expand federalism to each of the provinces. That would somewhat diffuse the ethnic blocs, set the stage for democratic haggling in the divided provinces. This would also be far more conducive to demographic shifts--for example, a province that became progressively more Sunni would not be federally tied to a Shiite district, but could shift with the wind. Even the Kirkuk situation would be calmed somewhat. Instead of all of a sudden it becomes Kurdish and all outsiders would have to leave, the changeover could be more gradual--not a terrible burden to the Kurds, but more respectful to the needs of those who have to leave and go somewhere else. Last but not least, having a federalism of 18 provinces would mean an 19-way split of the oil revenues (including the central government), which would almost certainly be more equitable than a 4-way split. Definitely more responsive to local needs.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-08-12 10:25|| 2005-08-12 10:25|| Front Page Top

#2 http://debka.com/article.php?aid=996

Older story dealing with local ethnic negotiations, fact or fiction? Debka... but it has nice maps.

Moose. I concur with your stastement that a 4 way ethnically split federal govt won't work for Iraq if it wishes to remain 1 nation, but I still think that's the route the constitution will take because of the path that's been laid by the kurds and Shiia to date.

Talabani and Sistani are both calling for their militia to be recognized as proxy police forces and are both making deals with local ethnic hot spots like the ones you mention on their own.

It seems apparent that the ethnic factions are already at civil war as part of this bargaining process, but that's IMHO. People in country largely confirm these assumptions and now that the Sunnis are rejecting the entire federalist process more violence will no doubt be on the menu.

Maybe you're right about a geo-ethnically divided federalist Iraq of 18 provinces being a good idea, but is it gonna happen or will the situation just deteriorate more?

My money is on the latter choice.

EP

Posted by ElvisHasLeftTheBuilding 2005-08-12 16:53|| 2005-08-12 16:53|| Front Page Top

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