Article

2004-04-15 -Short Attention Span Theater-

US geophysicist predicts quake to hit LA 'by Sept 5'

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Posted by Lux 2004-04-15 15:31|| || Front Page|| [4 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Ima worried about the unexplained loss of 3 lbs earthquake pills. It'sa makin me hjitter

Posted by Acme Plate Tectonics Dept 2004-04-15 5:14:08 PM|| 2004-04-15 5:14:08 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 This happens to be my professional area.
This work is looking good so far, but it remains to be seen whether it is applicable in the general case rather than specifically to certain consistently active zones.
It involves some very complex statistical analysis and this could very well exclude variables that may be more significant in other areas than in Southern California or Hokkaido.
I would like to see it applied to the New Madrid zone in Missouri for example, since that area presents what is probably the most under-rated earthquake hazard in the world.
BTW, did y'all know there are several potentially active volcanoes in Texas, including one near Amarillo?

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2004-04-15 6:31:44 PM|| 2004-04-15 6:31:44 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 AC, what are they using, structural equation modeling (e.g., hierarchical linear modeling)?

Posted by cingold 2004-04-15 6:34:34 PM|| 2004-04-15 6:34:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 BTW, did y'all know there are several potentially active volcanoes in Texas, including one near Amarillo?

It's hard, but the big momma has decided there was a mistake made in the panhandle and gaia gonna have to handle the renewal project.

Posted by Shipman 2004-04-15 7:18:46 PM|| 2004-04-15 7:18:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 I would like to see it applied to the New Madrid zone in Missouri for example, since that area presents what is probably the most under-rated earthquake hazard in the world.

Source of, if I'm not mistaken, the strongest earthquake in North America's historical record. Reversed the course of the Mississippi for a time and nearly sank the first steam boat on the river.

I was going to include a stop there in my vacation soujourn this year, but there's not enough time.

BTW -- back in, oh, 1990 or so, some Beauzeau predicted the New Madrid fault would let rip sometime that November. That led to the odd experience of hearing warnings about what to do during an earthquake in Peoria, IL.

Posted by Robert Crawford 2004-04-15 7:35:51 PM|| [http://www.kloognome.com/] 2004-04-15 7:35:51 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 In related news Al-Q made a threat that it would 'cause serious harm' in the LA area on or before September 5th.....

Posted by CrazyFool 2004-04-15 7:38:25 PM|| 2004-04-15 7:38:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 Yes, indeed, Cingold. Such models (a series of them for each of a number of past events and hypothetical future events) are the apparent beginning point for Keilis-Borke's method.

The actual algorithms used for the predictive analysis are based on non-linear dynamics and chaos theory, altering the value of various points of comparison until a predictive model is reached for a past event.
These values (each of which is actually an individual algorithm rather than a quantity) are then applied to hypothetical future events and a probability derived.
The extensive use of chaos theory and non-linear dynamics are the source of a lot of the expressed skepticism, since as Keilis-Borok says, these methods are counter-intuitive to many geophysicists.
Quite frankly, some of us in this field are not as well-informed about these kinds of mathematics as we should be. To my way of thinking, they are a little spooky but a good way to bypass some of the inherent problems in geophysical modeling, the difficulty of defining a limit of significant detail being one. That is, the complexity of a geophysical model can be arbitrarily increased with legitimate variables for as long as you like.
Chaos theory, according to its proponents, cuts across this and essentially summarizes these open-ended complexities.
Some of the participants in this effort are leading figures in chaos theory, which I think gives a good idea of the mathematical architecture of their system.

Btw, like the internet, this kind of math was invented by the former vice-president, which is why it is named for him (Al-Gore-ithm).

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2004-04-15 8:04:58 PM|| 2004-04-15 8:04:58 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 AC can you post a couple of links for someone who has a reasonable grasp of geology, but math makes their head hurt? TIA

Posted by Phil B 2004-04-15 8:24:06 PM|| 2004-04-15 8:24:06 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Here ya' go, Phil:
The Southern California Earthquake Center
USGS Earthquake Hazards Program (lot of good stuff here)
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics (IIEPT) (this is Keilis-Borke's organization in Russia)
There is an awful lot of quackery and pseudoscience connected with this. It seems to be very profitable.
Bob Fryer Fryer the liar charges that earthquake prediction has been routine for decades and that this fact has been suppressed at the cost of thousands of lives.
Syzygy This is a very popular earthquake prediction newsletter that relies on phases of the Moon, tidal data and the like.

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2004-04-15 9:01:42 PM|| 2004-04-15 9:01:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Thanks AC some interesting stuff. It also reminded me that the real earthquake threat isn't in California but in the Pacific Northwest up into Canada and Alaska where at some point there will be magnitude 9 to 10 quake.

Posted by Phil B 2004-04-15 9:30:56 PM|| 2004-04-15 9:30:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Btw, like the internet, this kind of math was invented by the former vice-president, which is why it is named for him (Al-Gore-ithm).

AC, that's great. LMAO. I can just see Al iterating fractals and plugging away at LISREL or SPSS AMOS solutions. Or better yet, working all the matrix algebra by hand . . .

Posted by cingold 2004-04-15 11:31:53 PM|| 2004-04-15 11:31:53 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 AC, is there an update on the efficacy, or any correlation of this, provided by RF measurements?

Posted by Zenster 2004-04-16 1:26:17 AM|| 2004-04-16 1:26:17 AM|| Front Page Top

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