The first hint of this meme that I noticed was a Powerline post on Sunday about the Condoleeza Rice banner, the one with text referring to the Qana incident, the one that appeared with such suspicious rapidity on the streets of Beirut.
The banner was certainly very timely it was hung on the morning after the massacre, just a couple of hours after the death of the victims in Qana.
And then it turned out that the Israeli airstrike that damaged the building had actually occurred some seven or eight hours prior to the buildings collapse. Curiouser and curiouser.
[Warning: some of the images in posts linked below are graphic.]
Israel Matzav, EU Referendum, and Confederate Yankee have followed up with analyses of the timing of the banner and the sequencing of the Qana photographs. EU Referendum has focused on the suspicious and mysterious Green Helmet and T-shirt, the two supposed rescue workers who changed clothes and positions so many times carrying the same two miraculously clean and un-bloody bodies to the waiting ambulance.
The massacre at Qana may well have been staged. This is not to say that Lebanese children did not die in Israeli airstrikes; they certainly did. This is not to say that the parents of these children do not mourn; I believe that they do.
But this is all very reminscent of Mohammed al-Dura, the boy whose murder by Israeli fire has been conclusively shown to be a hoax arranged by the Palestinians, with the complicity of the France 2 television network. Mohammed al-Dura may have been accidentally killed by Palestinian fire, or he may have been deliberately killed for propaganda purposes, or even not killed at all, but he was most definitely not killed by the Israelis.
Yet his murder attained an iconic truth which has transcended and outlived the mere facts of the situation. He is visual proof of Israeli (and, by implication, Western) brutality and indifference towards Muslims. He has even been made into a postage stamp in Tunisia.
So the truth doesnt really matter.
Qana is the latest in a long series of iconic images, an extensive collection of photos and video that might be entitled The West Always Commits Atrocities Against the Fuzzy-Wuzzies. The first in the series was Eddie Adams famous photo of the the summary execution of Nguyen Van Lem during the Tet offensive in February of 1968. The uses to which the photo was put ignored all context namely, that it was taken in the middle of an enemy offensive in a brutal war, and the victim was identifiably an enemy soldier, and an officer of the Viet Cong. The image was eventually enshrined as the visual symbol of Americas guilt towards the brown people of Vietnam, and was soon joined by other familiar icons such as Kent State and My Lai.
Eddie Adams photo was very disturbing. The newsreel footage of the same incident which I saw in Britain in the late 1960s, when it was aired by the nascently anti-American BBC was even more disturbing. But the film was suppressed in this country for many years, because graphic atrocity images were generally not shown in the media.
Times have changed. The mainstream media are nowadays all too ready to show graphic images. Provided, of course, that they illustrate the dominant paradigm: America, Israel, and other Western nations always behave in a barbaric fashion towards the Third World and people of color.
For guilt-ridden liberal Westerners, looking at such images is a form masochistic voyeurism. Oh, look at that! Were so bad! Were so awful! We deserve whatever we get!
With a ready market like that, the brutal culture of the Arab world has plenty of supply to satisfy the demand. Muslims are the brown people, the victims of the moment, and they obligingly supply the forbidden images that we are so hungry to see.
And doing so suits the strategy of the Islamists, so there is a perfect synergy of effort: We want to hang ourselves; they hand us the rope. What could be better?
Staged or real, the prurient images of victimization are a precision-guided missile that strikes the target perfectly.
The dead bodies of children are props; the rescue workers are actors and stagehands. And the directors of the drama seem to be the media, who have lately become knowingly complicit.
Take a look at the Qana photo at right (to dampen the voyeuristic aspects, I have cropped out the most disturbing parts). See that guy crouching in the background?
Hes not a rescue worker. Hes another photographer. The photographer who took the this photo was not careful enough to keep his colleague out of the picture. Or maybe it didnt matter to him the Potemkin process is so far along that no one really minds if the secret is revealed.
Qana and other similar incidents are, regardless of authenticity, primarily media events. They are managed and delivered as weapons by the enemies of Western Civilization, with the connivance of our own media.
This is War Pornography, delivered to the greedy and guilt-ridden consumers of the West by our ruthless opponents. The couch potatoes of our intelligentsia are sitting here, sweating in a darkened room, with a raincoat over the engorged self-righteousness in their laps.
I may not be able to define it, but I know it when I see it.
#2
About the 30' banner of Condi -- Jonah at National Review drew it out to readers the other day. His answers from readers:
Update: From a reader:
"Do you guys think such a banner could be made in 2-4 hours (particularly in a supposedly war-ravaged area)?"
Heck no. A designer could throw it together in probably 15 minutes or so, but the longest part would be the printing. Notice how deep the reds and blacks are - this means they didn't just bust it out. I wouldnt be surprised if that job itself (requiring special equipment, as it looks to be printed on canvas or nylon, not merely paper) took 6 hours simply to print.
Also, that puppy would be expensive.
Update II: From a reader:
Nope. Not possible in 2 hours to design, typeset, print, assemble and transport to the site. 24 hours if you're really good to do all the above. I say that as an career commercial artist of 18 years now.
Update III: From another reader:
called a close friend who has a very large printing company in NY with the question. he called out to one of his technicians as to how long a color 30 foot banner would take to produce. the response was that it would have to be done by a special machine and that machine would take "5 to 6 hours." by the way, their rather enormous, state of the art (less than 6 months old) facility doesn't even have the equipment necessary to do it. so make a guess as to what's available in a war-ravaged area...
#3
No doubt it was staged and well planned. The media always gets suckered into these. Swaying world opinion is key... so much so that the Bosnians mortored there own people while shopping at a downtown market. That incident was the catalyst for the west to finally get involved.
The anti-Israeli bias in Jimmy Carters op-ed in yesterdays Washington Post could not have been more evident if he had concluded, Allahu akhbar! Unlike Mel Gibson, Carter presumably wrote while sober, but his analysis and demonology barely differed for it.
The moral equivalence that led the worst president of the 20th century to decry our inordinate fear of Communism was on display from his first sentence, in which he took aim at key players on all sides waiting for every opportunity to destroy their enemies. The genocidal intent of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran is well known; he failed to indicate their opposite number in the Jewish State of Israel.
Carter indicates the cause of the most recent cycle of terrorism: the fact that Israel jails terrorists. One of the special vulnerabilities of Israel, and a repetitive cause of violence, is the holding of prisoners, he writes. Noting Hezbollah generously offered to exchange the soldier the one they didnt kill for the release of 95 women and 313 children in Israeli prisons, he huffs, this time Israel rejected a swap and attacked Gaza in an attempt to free the soldier and stop rocket fire into Israel.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut ||
08/02/2006 14:19 Comments ||
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#3
Is Jimmuh still giving the Fidel eulogy? Will he by flying out of Hartsfield-Jackson-McKinney-Young International Airport? Have to drop by and wave him off.
#4
Palestinians, he whimpers, are surrounded by a provocative security barrier that fails to bring safety or stability.
How can someone be "surrounded" by something they're outside of?
Posted by: Rob Crawford ||
08/02/2006 15:48 Comments ||
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#5
The truly remarkable thing about Jimmy Carter is that over 25 years after being booted out of office, he still recognizes neither his failure to stand up to Iran nor the fact that his failure has spawned most if not all of this Hezbollah problem. In fact, his uselessness may be the single largest contribution to emboldening the Arabs and Iranians aside from the Arab Oil Embargo.
#6
Sometimes, when I look at my children, I say to myself, "Lillian, you should have remained a virgin."
Posted by: Lillian Carter ||
08/02/2006 16:32 Comments ||
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#7
His anti-semitism isn't too surprising given his background of rural southern christian teaching. His twisted logic, on the other hand, is beyond comprehension.
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
08/02/2006 16:44 Comments ||
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#8
His anti-semitism isn't too surprising given his background of rural southern christian teaching.
I think his anti-semitism is more aligned with and reflective of the LLL/tranzi type of "anti-zionism" than any Southern evangelical strain.
#11
#10 Darrell - "starting"? Have to disagree.
Jimmuh started making Brother Billy look good by comparison years ago.
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut ||
08/02/2006 21:31 Comments ||
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#12
DB: I take issue with your statement. He was raised as a good ol' Southern Baptist (he taught Sunday School in the Baptist Church too). However, the SBC is probably one of Israel's greatest defenders and friends in the Protestant/Evangelical strain. We have no sub-groups within the SBC like the Methodists and even the Presbyterians (think of the whacko Methodists group who wants to boycott all things Israeli). In fact, I'm Southern Baptist and our preacher speaks almost weekly in favor of Israel from the pulpit, has been there numerous times, and even though many don't like him, our biggest representative (Jerry Falwell) would probably pick up a gun himself to defend Jerusalem, if you read his recent columns (unlike Clinton who just says he would, but would probably lick Nasrallah's boots if he asked nicely).
With all that being said, he separated several years ago from the SBC, mostly because of our support for Israel and Joooos.
Posted by: BA ||
08/02/2006 21:48 Comments ||
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#13
just a good ol' toothy dictator-lovin jew-hating jerk. That's his bio
Posted by: Frank G ||
08/02/2006 22:26 Comments ||
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#14
His Op-ed piece > indir admits that the DemoLeft's tactics were wrong, ergo its the GOP-Right's fault, sub-ergo elect a DemoLefty in 2006 and espec 2008 for their acccuracy.
As Israel steps up its campaign to cripple Hezbollah, it finds itself facing two major threats: the terrorist organization and its state sponsors in Tehran and Damascus, which are feverishly working to resupply it with weapons, and the danger that the United Nations will try to impose an immediate cease-fire that would preserve Hezbollah, which is capable of attacking Israel from Lebanon. Current negotiations at the United Nations and elsewhere are deliberating over the composition of an international "stabilization force" that would maintain security in southern Lebanon and train a Lebanese army capable of policing the southern part of the country.
In these negotiations, the United States right now is the major obstacle in the way of efforts led by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, together with France and Russia, to push through the Security Council a resolution calling for a cease-fire that would do nothing to deal with the root cause of the current violence: Hezbollah's use of Lebanese territory to attack Israel. Mr. Annan, the Russians and the French want an immediate cease-fire -- even if it enables Hezbollah to survive and re-emerge as a more dangerous threat.
Washington wants to ensure that the stabilization force will not be a replica of the U.N. Interim Force presently in Lebanon, which is largely powerless to do anything to stop Hezbollah attacks. Washington is pressing for creation of a force that would have the military capability to stop Hezbollah from being rearmed by Tehran and Damascus (a major assumption being that Israel's current military campaign will be successful in destroying most of Hezbollah's long-range weaponry). Washington and Paris are locked in difficult negotiations over whether a stabilization force can act "aggressively," a Western diplomat told us, to prevent Hezbollah from staging new attacks. France and Russia, in particular, prefer a passive approach to policing Lebanon.
Israel, which ended its 18-year occupation of Lebanon in 2000, has no desire to keep its forces in Lebanon -- hence its support of an international effort to police southern Lebanon and keep Hezbollah's terrorist army out. But before such a force can be deployed, the Security Council needs to answer basic questions, including: How many troops would be required? What countries would be willing to contribute them? Will the coalition soldiers be capable of militarily thwarting Hezbollah? What will members of the force do if they are attacked by Hezbollah (the very terrorist group that drove American and French armed forces out of Lebanon almost 23 years ago)? How will Iran and Syria be prevented from resupplying Hezbollah and triggering a new wave of violence? How long will it take for the stabilization force to train a Lebanese army capable of standing up to Hezbollah?
The answers to such questions will determine whether Lebanon becomes a peaceful nation that is not a threat to its neighbors, or its people continue to be held hostage to the whims of Islamosfascists in Tehran and Damascus.
Posted by: Captain America ||
08/02/2006 01:24 ||
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Looking at the situation in Israel and Lebanon, theres a lot of debate as to whether Israel is winning the war, or Hezbollah. At times, the same paper can report the contradictory assessments of each side. . . .
A key question is how many casualties have been inflicted in Hezbollahs ranks. The organization doesnt have unlimited men, endless supplies of Katyusha, Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 rockets. They started with X; while I'm sure Hezbollah will claim that the conflict is giving them many more recruits, they are, most likely, at something lesser than X.
That first Post story quotes the Lebanese Health Ministry as stating that at least 46 Hezbollah guerrillas had been killed in the conflict so far. That number may be significantly higher; still, out of an organization that has thousands of foot soldiers, thousands of rockets and who knows how many launchers, one has to wonder how much Hezbollahs warmaking capabilities have been degraded.
Still, I was reminded of an anecdote by Tony Robbins. (Stay with me here). You have a sculptor or miner who wants to break down a boulder into smaller rocks. He hits the boulder at the top. Nothing happens. He hits it again in the same spot. Nothing happens. He hits it in the same spot, over and over again, 50 times, 100 times. Finally, on the two-hundreth or so strike, the boulder splits. It wasn't the force of that individual blow; it was that the two-hundreth blow was "the straw that broke the camel's back". While the progress wasn't visible, the boulder was being changed, bit by bit, by each successive blow.
Like the sculptor, a military campaign can have no visible signs of progress until there is a sudden change, reflecting the impact of all the accumulated actions. I looked up what the coverage was of the U.S. military operations against the Taliban in the first week of November. Typical was a line in a story by The Christian Science Monitor, November 6, "One month of US-led airstrikes against the Taliban has so far yielded no obvious military gain." The discussion was what the U.S. would be able to accomplish during the long and harsh Afghan winter.
On November 9, the Northern Alliance controlled fifteen percent of Afghanistan; on November 12, they controlled half, and the Taliban were abandoning Kabul. On December 7, Khandahar fell, marking the end of any effective Taliban claim to territory in the country. Hamad Karzai took the oath of office in Kabul on December 22, 102 days after the 9/11 attacks.
So the situation can change, even when it's a rag-tag team of religious extremists fighting on their home turf against a military superpower using advanced weaponry, special forces, air power, and precision bombing. This doesn't guarantee that Israel will mirror the success of the U.S.; only that the situation can change rapidly, even if it seems like a stalemate to our eyes.
Posted by: Mike ||
08/02/2006 10:44 ||
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#1
"Winning" is (individually or in groups) taking out pieces of kak like this lad. The more you take out, the longer you continue to win. Just my two farthings worth.
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (Arabic: ÃÈæãÕÚÈ ÇáÒÑÞÇæíý) (October 20, 1966 June 7, 2006) was a member of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, a militant group in Iraq. [1]. One or more individuals identifying themselves as Zarqawi took responsibility, on several audiotapes, for numerous acts of violence in Iraq and Jordan. These acts include suicide bombings and the killing of soldiers, police officers, and civilians.
As an Islamist identified with the Salafi movement, Zarqawi opposed the presence of United States and Western military forces in the Islamic world and opposed the West's support for and the existence of Israel. In September 2005, he reportedly declared "all-out war" on Shia Muslims in Iraq [2] and is believed responsible for dispatching numerous Al-Qaeda suicide bombers throughout Iraq, especially to areas with large concentrations of Shia civilians. As the leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq he is suspected of causing thousands of people's deaths many, if not most of them, civilians.
#2
Drip, drip, drip. Maybe Jim Geraghty is just stupid. Maybe he thinks this is a parlor game. Whatever. Go ahead and help the enemy, Jim, if it makes you feel important. Forget about those women and children whose deaths you are encouraging the Jihadis to put before the bombs to further their cause. Imparting your pearls of wisdom is so much more important than them.
Sheesh - what a bunch of fools. This game is for keeps. Bout time these drooling idiots figure that out.
No, he lives in Turkey. He lives among the enemies of civilization and he's starting to go native.
Posted by: Rob Crawford ||
08/02/2006 11:37 Comments ||
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#5
why are you attacking Geraghty? He seems more optimistic than some. What exactly did he write that was offensive.
Israel has to live in this region. They need to win wars, not just fight them. And by that, I mean they need to win specific wars, not just chalk it some "war of civilizations" in general.
This war is costing Israel in lives, weapons, and money. And possibly, at least in the short term, in political influence among the non-Shia in Lebanon. Its not unreasonable to want them to get the maximum degradation of Hezb capabilities possible for that. And to ask how much theyve gotten.
#6
2b, Rob: Are you sure you read the same article I posted? By the same Jim Geraghty? I mean, I don't intend to get snarky or anything, but your comments don't seem like a response to what Geraghty actually wrote.
Posted by: Mike ||
08/02/2006 11:49 Comments ||
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#8
I have to disagree with your assessment of this particular article, 2b: He's entirely correct that some initial pounding against a determined enemy appears to be fruitless, only to have a breakout occur that radically shifts the situation in a short period of time. The key is recognizing such breakouts and exploiting them, as well as being willing to do the necessary long and hard slogging to create the situation that, in turn, creates the breakout. Patton and Napoleon were good at recognizing these sorts of situations, and I believe that Mohammed was pretty good at this as well.
It's a bit strange to assert that Mr. Geraghty's helping the opposition: he cites the failure of the CSM's "military" "commentator" in the light of subsequent events to prove his case.
If he was addressing this to me, I would believe he was saying "Keep pounding away, and stay prepared to exploit the situation when it breaks."
#9
Any group that engages in war but cannot take casualties, will lose. In a proper attack, every one involved must accept the possibility that he will die trying, or succeed.
Israeli politicians either do not realize the finality of the muslim position, or they do not want to offend their own cowards with open truth about the need for a total offensive.
I agree with disinformation as a useful tool during war times, so the lack of good data coming from Israel is fine by me.
And, I know I speak for a lot of hard asses when I say I hope we can get our dog in this fight.
I don't see anything in this article that's even pessimistic, much less anything that "helps the enemy."
What Geraghty is saying is, "Don't be dismayed by what might appear to be lack of progress on Israel's part: they're prepping the battlefield. Just as with Afghanistan in 2001, we're likely to see little progress right up until the enemy is ready to collapse-- and then they will go in a heap, all at once."
Posted by: Dave D ||
08/02/2006 12:23 Comments ||
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#11
For now Israel seems to be loosing. And that is what i expect to be happening in the end. One exemple: the stupid remarks Olmert made about Judeia Samaria at time of War.
#13
I received orders to move against Colonel Thomas Harris, who was said to be encamped at the town of Florida, some twenty-five miles south of were we then were Harris had been encamped in a creek bottom for the sake of being near water. The hills on either side of the creek extended to a considerable height, possibly more than a hundred feet. As we approached the brow of the hill from which was expected we could see Harris camp, and possibly find his men ready formed to meet us, my heart kept getting higher and higher until it felt to me as though it was in my throat. I would have given anything then to have been back in Illinois, but I had not the moral courage to halt and consider what to do; I kept right on. When we reached a point from which the valley below was in full view I halted. The place where Harris had been encamped a few days before was still there and the marks of recent encampment were plainly visible, but the troops were gone. My heart resumed its place. It occurred to me at once that Harris had been as much afraid of me as I had been of him. This was a view of the question I had never taken before; but it was one I never forgot afterwards. From that event to the close of the war, I never experienced trepidation upon confronting an enemy, though I always felt more or less anxiety. I never forgot that he had as much reason to fear my forces as I had his. I never forgot that lesson. Personal Memoirs of U.S. Grant
#14
I think Israel is starting to shape the battlefield. For two weeks now they have been making foray into the Lebanese border region. Hezbollah has dug in and are facing Israel. all of a sudden, the IDF is concetrating its effort in the Bekka. Now Hezbollah at the border has to watch in both directions knowing its supply chain and retreat may be broken. Hezbolah positions are now entirely defensive. Unfortunately, their rockets are offense weapons and are meaningless in the true battle.
Posted by: john ||
08/02/2006 14:59 Comments ||
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#15
Is Israel really focusing on the Bekaa? As far as I can glean all theyve done is a quick commando strike there, while most of their force is focused South of the Litani. Now the Bekaa strike may be good 4th Gen warfare, keeping your adversary off balance, but if its the focus of the fighting, I dont see it.
#17
Last night in the O-Club (22:38 posting), our good friend Old Spook had this to say:
FINALLY! This info is public in multiple sources so I can talk about it.
Israel has turned Syria's flank - they've inserted regular troops and SpecOps units far into the Bekaa (and likely will pull them quickly), and like I said it would, that opens the road to Damascus.
Take a look at the terrain in the region: between Israel and Damascus is the Golan - and its not tanker country - hills, mountains, and decades of Syrian fortifications. Now look to the west of Damascus - much better terrain. Check your history books as well - its the same approach Allenby used in WW1 to take Damascus, flank it from the Levant. with irregualrs along the other routes.
The Israelis, if they want to, are now capable of launching a blitz to Damascus the way the WW2 Germans flanked the Maginot line by way of the low countries and the Ardennes.
This is a very clear signal to the Syrian leadership to shut up and back away. Essentially Israel has put a knife to Assad's throat.
About time.
Its still dangerous out there, there are a lot of bad men doing bad things and bad trends. But the bad guys haven't won them all yet - there have been victories that can't be mentioned, and there are deltas that are changing in the right direction (remember your calculus).
Pray that things hold together, given time we can deal with them properly.
Posted by: Mike ||
08/02/2006 15:35 Comments ||
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#18
I dont understand why some people that enters in whisfull thinking.
So a samll force that was inserted in Balbeek was in the news shortly afterwards. But a bigger force is in secret there. Where are the news of combats?
#19
Why do you think that if you don't have media accounts, no important operations are happening, CU2772? Most reporters couldn't correctly describe a successful engagement if one occurred in front of them.
Besides which, it's a serious mistake to assume that combat is the only sign of military success. Destroying command and control infrastructure, interdicting the Syrian/Iranian rearming of Hezb'Allah,selected capture or killing of key leaders, information gathering ... all of these are legitimate and highly useful outcomes from a surgical insertion (and removal) of forces in an area like the Bekaa.
#20
I dont see any hit or degradation in Hizb command structure. When IAF stopped for 48hr the rockets were few. After Israel raid you have +200 rockets as retaliation. So where are the hits in command structure?
#22
CU2772, it's pretty clear you have no military training. Worse -- you seem to be enmeshed in the sort of fantasy thinking that has caused the Arab world endless poverty and futility.
And that's a shame, because I would be happy to see the muslim world as a whole, including the Arab world from whose culture so much has been absorbed by other muslims, be prosperous, peaceful and contributing to the world.
Instead, despite the vast oil riches of some muslim countries, the muslim world is not only not growing in those aspects, it is declining rapidly.
At some point Muslims and their sympathizers are going to have to give up the Jew/Israel hatred and actually live in the real world, where your choices have had disastrous consequences. And that will mean telling the truth about events and focusing on actual facts, rather than relying on manipulating appearances to create emotional responses. Europe is far down the path of having made the same substitition -- and it is the cause of the erosion and dry rot in European culture over the last 30 years or so.
A propaganda war will succeed, for a while. Ultimately, though, facts have a way of intruding on fantasies.
It is one thing to do barbarian style, destructive raids against Israel and the West. It's quite another thing to create a successful, thriving civilization. The terror cells nurtured in the Islamic world are reasonably good at the former, not surprisingly since it is the way of war embedded in Arab culture for millenia.
After a while, though, the accomplishments of the civilizations they have lived off of fade away. And what is left is, once again, poverty, ignorance and deep inequality. Even if the Islamacists succeed in destroying the West, history shows there is little to no chance that the resulting society will be any better than the mess that currently exists in most Muslim countries. Because what would be needed is to come to grips with facts -- and if the Muslim world in general were doing that, they wouldn't be so focused on Israel and would instead be creating that society right now.
#23
Clerert Uneamp2772, usually it's the un-noticed operations that may have more strategic value.
I consider the raid as serving 3 purposes:
1. It is a good PR.
2. Although the main baddie was not apprehended, some other baddies were. They're an asset in any case, especially if there is a IRG member amongst the captured terrs.
3. Diversion. Nuff said.
To get a bit insight into importance of ops that are out of the public eye, let me introduce you to The Man Who Never Was.
"The Man Who Never Was" Launches Operation Mincemeat (April 30, 1943)
A Spanish fisherman discovered the body of Major William Martin, a British Royal Marines courier. There was a briefcase attached to the dead man's wrist, which contained personal correspondence and documents related to the impending Allied invasion of Sardinia, in Greece. Spanish authorities notified the Germans, who moved quickly to fortify the Greek coast, leaving Sicily almost completely undefended. This was exactly what the Allies had intended.
"Major Martin," also known as "The Man Who Never Was," was an unwitting player in one of the greatest military hoaxes of World War II. The Allies had been planning an invasion of Sicily (and not Sardinia) for some time. Sicily, however, is mountainous, and therefore easier to defend than to attack. It is also so strategically located that the Germans were almost definitely expecting an attempt to dislodge them from it. And the buildup of troops and equipment that would be necessary for the invasion were certain to attract attention. If "Operation Husky," as the invasion was known, was to be a success, rather than a slaughter, the enemy's command must be led astray. Squadron Leader Sir Archibald Cholmondley, of the British Intelligence interservice XX Committee (XX for double cross) suggested that a set of false plans should be planted on a dead man, who would deliver them into the enemy's hands. This obviated any concern that the chosen spy could turn out to be a double agent, as well as ensuring that he wouldn't break under torture and confess whatever he knew about the true nature of his mission. Cholmondley entrusted the details of the mission to Lieutenant Commander Ewen Montagu of Naval Intelligence.
It was Montagu's idea that "Martin" should appear to have drowned, probably after his plane crashed off the coast of Spain. This necessitated finding a corpse whose lungs were already full of fluid, so that any doctors who examined the body would accept that he had been at sea for some time. He found a 34-year-old man who had recently died of pneumonia brought on by ingesting rat poison. The man would have been dead for some time before he fell into enemy hands, but the effects of salt water upon the corpse would disguise the inevitable decomposition. Intelligence secretaries pitched in to write love letters to "Martin," and one of them even donated a picture of herself in a swimsuit--ostensibly a photo of the dead man's fiancee, Pam. Cholmondley carried the letters in his wallet for several weeks, to give them an authentically worn appearance. "Martin's" personality was further enhanced by an irate letter from his bank manager, a stern letter from his father, a few overdue bills, a replacement military I.D. card, matchbooks, theatre tickets, keys... All the personal detritus of a likable young man who might be somewhat careless in his personal affairs (and thus more likely to wind up face-down on a beach in Spain), but who was doubtless quite good at his job. These items went into the briefcase with the documents that told of the Allies' plans to invade Sardinia.
"Operation Mincemeat," as Cholmondley had dubbed his master plan, was well under way. All that remained was to escort poor "Major Martin" into enemy territory. The body was packed in dry ice, and put aboard the British submarine HMS/M Seraph, under the command of Lieutenant Commander N. A. "Bill" Jewell. Just off the port of Huelva, Lt. Jewell said a short prayer, and Seraph gave "Major Martin" into the arms of the sea.
The discovery of the body didn't end the charade. The Allies were well aware that the Abwehr (German intelligence) would be watching them closely. Britain demanded that Spain return "Martin's" briefcase; after the requisite amount of diplomatic posturing, they did. It appeared to be untouched, but microscopic examination of the contents revealed that they had been carefully studied. "Martin" himself was buried in Huelva, with full military honors. His grieving fiancee sent flowers to adorn his grave. (And up until 1994, someone came regularly to lay red carnations there, but no one ever saw who it was.) On June 4, The Times included his name in the casualty lists. The Germans were completely convinced. Within days of "Martin's" appearance on the Spanish coast, Montagu telegraphed Winston Churchill to say "Mincemeat swallowed whole." On May 12, Adolph Hitler sent out an order: "Measures regarding Sardinia and the Peloponnese take precedence over everything else." He sent a Panzer division to Greece from France, ordered two Panzer divisions in Russia to prepare to move to Greece as well (and this just before the great tank battle at Kursk), and moved an extra Waffen SS brigade into the area. He thought he was well-prepared.
On July 9, 1943, the Allies moved. They concentrated their assault on the southern tip of Sicily, well away from the troops massed at the northern end, facing Sardinia. The Italian divisions collapsed almost immediately. The Germans, under Field Marshal Albert Kesselring, fell back to Messina. They resisted as well as they could, but Hitler still had it in his mind that the real attack would be in Greece, so they were not reinforced. On July 23, in fact, Hitler ordered Field Marshal Erwin Rommel to oversee the forces protecting Sardinia. By August 17, General George S. Patton and Field Marshal Bernard Montgomery had taken Sicily, due in large part to the efforts of a man who was dead before his mission even began.
#24
"#22 CU2772, it's pretty clear you have no military training."
It's pretty clear you dont know me. And it's pretty clear you didnt answer anything i said.
Which was there werent any big operation going on in Baalbek
Not you and not twobyfour.
For good news at least somone put a clue in most cluess PM i saw waging a war:
14:46 PDT Ehud Olmert has decided to defer further realignment a phrase for territorial withdrawal for the present. From the conversation I had with the prime minister he will not deal with the realignment plan at all now we will conduct the arguments only after the war. (Ynet)
#25
And it's pretty clear you didnt answer anything i said.
Actually, I did, but you don't seem to have noticed. Gerahty's right when he says, "Like the sculptor, a military campaign can have no visible signs of progress until there is a sudden change, reflecting the impact of all the accumulated actions."
Whether that is happening in Bekaa, remains to be seen. But the point is still valid: it isn't only the "big operations" that matter and are useful.
Amid the relentless images of the dead extracted from a building in Qana, amid the fiery anger those images generated from Lebanon to Europe and from Egypt to Indonesia - and amid deafening global cries for an immediate ceasefire, a curiously contradictory picture is emerging from the battlefields of Hizballistan: Hizballah is on the ropes, running short of resources and desperate for a ceasefire for its very survival.
While the world has held itself aghast at Israeli aggression, Israel has been relentless in pursuit of what has been described as the fiercest Arab fighting force in the region. Undeterred by global outcry as over two thousand rockets and missiles have rained down upon Israeli cities with relatively little note, Israel has made good on their Prime Ministers declaration of Enough.
Israel is providing a lesson on fighting the war on terror.
The mighty Hizballah, rightfully feared as the most lethally armed terrorist organization on the planet, is now on the ropes. Only their lifeline from Syria sustains them in the midst of devastating strikes from the Israeli Air Force. From the hundreds of rocket launchers in southern Lebanon to weapons depots and infrastructure all the way up the Bekaa Valley in Baalbek, Hizballahs operational headquarters city, the IAF has exacted a heavy toll from Hizballah since the attack in Israel in which Hizballah terrorists killed eight IDF soldiers and abducted the two surviving.
In fact, in a radio interview with John Batchelor, retired Air Force General Tom McInerney detailed a debriefing with a senior IDF official in which he detailed that Israel believes their airstrikes have eliminated 70% of the long-range Iranian ZelZal missile systems in Hizballah hands. McInerney noted that over 1000 Hizballah infrastructure targets have been struck by Israeli air power up and down the Bekaa Valley (once called the most heavily defended air corridor on the planet) and throughout Southern Lebanon, including weapons storage facilities, command and control centers, vehicle repair facilities and 18 Hizballah financial centers which serve in the place of banks.
While sustaining these enormous losses, Hizballah is having difficulty re-supplying across the Syrian border. Convoys from Syria are struck by F-16s and drones once they are within Lebanese borders, often with the massive secondary explosions that indicate arms shipments. The Israelis believe that Bashar Assad is directly involved in the attempts to smuggle rockets, other arms and ammunition to Hizballah, and the release of the results of defense establishment intelligence is Israels way of sending a message to the Syrian president.
In what is likely to be perceived as a potential escalation, Bashar Assad told the Syrian Army to raise its readiness and they have reportedly been sent from their barracks and posts to the field. But this is very unlikely any Syrian attempt to re-enter Lebanon to come to the aid of Hizballah, as the IDF can dispatch of the Syrian military forces with far greater ease than they can Hizballah. Syria wants nothing of Israels IDF/IAF war machine. Thats what Hizballah is for.
As Assad senses Israels growing frustration over the doomed yet constant shipments of arms into Hizballah, the move is most likely to get them spread out in a reflexive and defensive maneuver. To leave them in their barracks is to create a target rich environment under each roof should Israel decide to send a less subtle message to Assad.
Sure, Assad may have sounded tough when he said, The barbaric war of annihilation the Israeli aggression is waging on our people in Lebanon and Palestine is increasing in ferocity, but thats what dictators and state sponsors of terrorism are supposed to say. What likely was in his mind as his message was typed for distribution was far more fearful than fearsome. As they are for Iran, Hizballah is Syrias front-line Special Forces. Behind them, it gets mighty thin mighty fast.
Curiously, Israel also said that, according to their intelligence, Hizballah is not allowed to fire Iranian missiles without Iranian permission and that few have been fired. The most notable was the C-802 Silkworms that put an Israeli frigate out of commission and sunk an Egyptian transport ship. But, after the Hizballah-manned Lebanese Army ground radars were eliminated in short order, the C-802s have been dormant.
Israels intelligence lets out what it wants to let out (fact or fiction) for specific design. So what is the design here? Its simple. Israel is intent on putting its boot squarely on Hizballahs throat, once and for all, and allowing both Iran and Syria to stay clear.
Hizballah is Irans ground force against Israel. Iran has no other offensive capabilities in the Levant aside from missiles launched from their own borders that will likely get shot out of the air. After Hizballah, theyre out of options at the moment. Israel knows this and is giving Iran a face-saving way to quietly back out. After all, Iran never gave permission for Hizballah to fire their weapons. Israel is saying, Take your 60 recently sent jihadists back and go home. If Iran ignores this, there really is little they can do in any event, as the logistical conduit utilized from Syria is increasingly being collapsed under the weight of Israeli air power.
But Hizballah is also Syrias principle ground force against Israel. Syrias shallow army is the one force aside from Hizballah that can muster a fight within the battlespace. It would be a short fight at that. But in any event, for Syria, Israel hands a different message without a face-saving option. By declaring the Assad is directly invovled, Israel is warning him, We know what youre doing and we hold you personally responsible.
Israel does not need to roll tanks on Damascus or even drop a few 2000-pounders on military installations. They simply need to convey that its just as easy to bank east from Baalbek as it is to bank west. Leave the option to Assad. He likes his palaces. Hell make the right self-preserving choice.
And with that, the supply lines are cut off, leaving Hizballah alone with their pride and their banter, backing northward in a battered creep up the Bekaa Valley. It is an unpleasant feeling when your eyes are feeding your brain the images of where youve been rather than where youre going especially in a fight.
So, while the Iranians, the Syrians, the Lebanese, Hizballah and seemingly the entire world demands a ceasefire, Israel knows that a ceasefire is nothing more than a quiet pause for re-arming Hizballah. Theyll have none of it.
Israels inner security cabinet just authorized the widening of the ground offensive. Take that in context with the above messages to all parties involved. While the IDF may not roll Merkavas all the way up to Baalbek, the Hizballah that emerges from a fight they could not finish will be denied southern Lebanese territory and a shell of its former self, requiring years - and much treasure - to reconsitute.
Enough.
Assad loves his palaces and Iran is trapped on the wrong side of the Persian Gulf.
#1
"The mighty Hizballah, rightfully feared as the most lethally armed terrorist organization on the planet, is now on the ropes. Only their lifeline from Syria sustains them in the midst of devastating strikes from the Israeli Air Force. From the hundreds of rocket launchers in southern Lebanon to weapons depots and infrastructure all the way up the Bekaa Valley in Baalbek, Hizballahs operational headquarters city, the IAF has exacted a heavy toll from Hizballah since the attack in Israel in which Hizballah terrorists killed eight IDF soldiers and abducted the two surviving."
#2
The essential problem with the Hezzies is that they don't understand war at all. They understand attacking lone patrols and looking like tough guys. They expected the 13000 missles to be a magic talisman to allow them to continue. When the bluff was called, they have no plan B.
#3
In a grinding down war of attrition, the Hezzies lack logistical depth. Their source of resources can be isolated, interdicted, and are in no position of exposing themselves to direct conflict. Unless Bush and the Reps really want to politically die this November, it is highly unlikely the Israeli support is going to be cut off. Time is on the side of the Israelis. Grind boys, grind.
#5
In an effort to separate what I hope to be true from what actually is, I find myself asking why Israel should be able to degrade or destroy Hizb now when they could not during their near twenty year occupation of Southern Lebanon?
The use of fixed positions may be one distinction, but the Hezzies are venal, not stupid and will surely adjust their tactics. Eventually, will they not inevitably reemerge?
Why should Israel be able to interdict resupply now when they couldn't before? The US hasn't done it effectively in Iraq yet, so what are Israel's chances?
A lot is riding on the Israelis being able to pull off what they've started. They're effectiveness is the leading question of the day.
Posted by: Baba Tutu ||
08/02/2006 15:46 Comments ||
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#6
Illiteracy watch- that would be "their effectiveness..." Its a matter of a gud ejukasion.
Posted by: Baba Tutu ||
08/02/2006 15:49 Comments ||
Top||
#7
From a former Marine pilot with some extensive contacts in Israel (his company does a lot of investment financing with Israeli companies) and
other intelligence sources. He has been very correct in prior analyses he has done. This one is disturbing but seems to be accurate. Especially after the head of Hezbollah, today, on Arab TV is proclaiming victory.
Hezbollah's strategic victory
It's obvious that there were a LOT of rockets stored in southern Lebanon, and somewhat north of the border in staging areas. That represents
substantial preparation that involves time, money, and risk. It's impossible to remain invisible with launchers, support, logistics, etc.
The logistics train seems obvious: from Iran, through Syria, to Lebanon via the Bekaa
Valley, then south. Observers can be reasonably confident that the rockets aren't being manufactured locally.
My first point is that the U.S. and Israel must have known what was there. They must have known how the weaponry got there, where it was made, and how it was built up. The region in which those buildups occurred were largely
occupied by Christian Lebanese, which should have enhanced intelligence quantity and quality. Between satellite, UAV, comint, and humint,
Israel should have had an accurate picture of what was happening across the border.
There was a huge buildup that included manpower, plus large diversified stockpiles of launchers and support for thousands of unguided rockets.
That's a weapon concept that must be understood...
Such rockets are suitable only for area fire. They were first developed by the Chinese, then introduced in western combat by Wellington's forces against Napoleon, and the concept has not evolved significantly up to the Katyusha. Unguided rockets played an important role in WWII, but generally for mass firings against widespread targets. They are so inaccurate
that the statistical probability of hitting even a large building from a few miles away is extremely low, even when firing hundreds of rockets at a time.
In WWII, forces fired many hundreds of rockets at each other either in offense or defense, but concentrated in a few minutes. There were few instances when isolated rockets were used for harrassment. In Vietnam, on the other
hand, incoming Katyusha-like rockets hit our bases frequently. It was a regular occurrence at Marine bases north of Danang, but there was little damage, even to helicopters in the open. It was like Haifa today - two or three
rockets comprised an attack, and most landed in the open. The difference is that the Vietnamese attackers had to carry their rockets within range, and they used field-expedient launcher (think forked stick).
In S Lebanon, it appears that the rockets were emplaced over time, hidden or buried,
awaiting a team to arrive with a mobile launcher. Again, there's evidence of
huge preparation to support this opportunity to provoke Israel - and that's precisely what it is. But my point is that despite Israel's anger at every injury and every damaged building, these rockets are rarely more than an
annoyance, provocation at a higher level.
Such preparation implies a plan, and certainly Hezbollah is working with one. It's a good one, supported by Syria and Iran and perhaps others in the Muslim world. Here's what I think is going on.
This is an asymmetrical battle in more ways than one. There's asymmetry in military power but also in information flow. Israel is "open", with
news media everywhere providing interviews, photography, statistics, and more.
Everything is known, available - there are few secrets. News reports general destruction in Lebanon, and it's sickening because of collateral damage to non-Hezbollah civilians and their homes, and the destruction of Lebanese
infrastructure. But the news does not discuss damage to Hezbollah because that information is simply not available. There are few reports of
casualties and there is little public evidence of destruction of weapon stockpiles or launchers. What the public - including the Arab public - sees is Israeli casualties and damage, an Israeli army that appears to be moving aimlessly in southern Lebanon, destruction of Lebanese infrastructure and resources, dead and injured Lebanese citizens, and an articulate
Nasrallah on television claiming victory and more to come.
The Israeli military knows that Hezbollah is losing big - the Israeli government gets good reports from the battlefield, and it knows the
tactical truth. Even the U.S. military, which is watching closely, knows that tactical truth. There is enormous asymmetry in casualties. Despite discussions with people who have excellent sources, however, I found no
defensible estimates of Hezbollah casualties! Many fighters who began this war against Israel may already be dead, and the casualty rate may be
enormous. Those who are killed are buried on the spot and disappear, and those who are wounded enter the Lebanese civilian medical system, such
as it is. Hezbollah need not bear the burden of a military medical infrastructure, and there's no way the media can report on casualties. Hezbollah leadership probably doesn't know the tactical reality of the battlefield casualty
list, and the constant degradation of its battlefield logistics. But it doesn't
matter...
The strategic truth is something else. The Hezbollah casualty list doesn't matter. The logistical losses do not matter. Strategically, Hezbollah has already won an enormous victory.
Hezbollah has grown in stature, and since Israel's pain is visible to the media but that of Hezbollah is mostly invisible, many Muslim youths see a modern David fighting a mechanized Goliath - successfully. I believe that recruits are racing to join. Despite constant casualties, the size of Hezbollah's "army" is increasing, not decreasing, at the discretion of Hezbollah leadership. Manpower is almost certainly
fltering into the area from other parts of Lebanon, from Syria, and even from other areas in which Hezbollah has established recruiting stations. They don't need uniforms, and to carry rockets they need little training. They will die in the grinder, and every death creates a martyr, plus family and friends that hate
Israel and the U.S. It's a price that Hezbollah is happy to pay because the long-term profit is high. This formula will enable Hezbollah to
protract this battle to gain favorable terms from the west, because the logistics support system and the manpower pool are both infinite.
The tactical equation is simple: Israel is inflicting huge damage against an irregular army that can do no more than send a few relatively
insignificant rockets in response. Strategically however, Hezbollah's manpower and
supplies are constantly replenished, and the longer this war continues the more damage will be done to Israel in the Arab world - including its northern neighbor - and the more credibility Hezbollah will earn.
Hezbollah is defining a set of tactics that can work on any border between an Islamic country and a western country. It requires logistical
support, recruiting of people willing to die for their cause, a couple of years
of planning and preparation, and then provocation. Any border... Nasrallah
and his organization will emerge from this small war a powerful force in Islamic politics. In years to come, this will change the middle-east equation.
But that is not the end of my logic. This small war has already triggered expanded awareness by the west that the problem is not just an
Israeli-Arab conflict. The west recognizes that Iran is the logistics and technology source for Hezbollah, and Syria the channel. As this continues, the western world will understand that if Iran is willing to support a small war so far away, it's only a step to support small wars further away - and then larger wars. Iran is not an Arab nation - it's Aryan, but what it does is in the name of Islam. The current small war along the Lebanese:Israel border changes the future. It's not just Arabs vs. Israel - that's the tactical battle, and it's only 50 years old. The strategic war is Islam vs. the west,
and it's been ongoing for centuries. Lately, it's been hidden behind the rhetoric and platitudes of hopeful politicians, but now that reality is becoming brightly illuminated.
In decades to come, this understanding may make an even bigger difference to the world's quation.
#8
Yes, that appears to be the war that is in its early stages. The first skirmishes were the Palestinian terror acts of the 70s. It will be a long and frustrating war, I suspect. Eye have got to be opened before we fight it fully.
And insofar as that is true, maybe it's not a totally bad thing that Israel is doing so poorly in the media war. For far too long both her friends and her enemies have seen Israel as an all-powerful force able to kill as she pleases with little vulnerability in return. One reason Europe and its ilk have no qualms denouncing Israeli actions while tolerating the ongoing deaths of Israelis through terror is that assertion that Israel is a bully, Israel is the "big one" who should absorb any strikes by those poor little Palestinians and others.
Ahmadinajad has done Israel a favor by ripping off the camoflage and making clear what many Muslims fervently desire: the utter humiliation and destruction of Israel and all Jews. It is more than time for supporters of the 'poor Palestinians' to look at this squarely and realize they are the ones supporting genocide.
#11
A couple of points to make with respect to Hezbollah's strategic victory.
It assumes that ther will be unlimited cannon fodder coming forward to martyr. While that may appear to be the case, much of the arab world appears very uneasy with rise of Iranian power, because their borders are much closer to Iran than ours. Hezbollah and ilk can only continue if the host is compliant. In Lebanon's case, that parasitic mode may not be allowed to continue. The Russians seem to have brought Chechnia under control, the US are working on Iraq, NATO in Afghanistan. As long as we continue in this manner, the legions of martyrs will not reach a critical mass, the process will be messy but manageable.
The elephant in the room is the Iranian nuclear program. If allowed to continue, it will become the umbrella under which Hezbollah can expand without limits.
Posted by: john ||
08/02/2006 20:15 Comments ||
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#12
If that's true why is Israel is always proved wrong. And it's political leadership is changing talking by the day
the wit and wisdom of CU2772. Cassandra couldn't sing any better, loser, not "looser"
Posted by: Frank G ||
08/02/2006 20:20 Comments ||
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#13
In your 'strategic' calculations do you include that the UN and other 'world opinion' are no longer recognized as potent as it was prior to 9/11. As some Arabs have observed about Bush, with him there are no helicopters [in retreat]. They have sold their influence by the obstruction, pandering, and outright intolerance. So, what are they going to do? If the UN was demonstrated to be impotent by the terrorists for years in Lebanon, why should the US or Israel really pay attention to it or other 'leaders'. The US and Israel are the ones making the real key calls.
Most of the comments your site makes about racism relate to Flanders. I have lived and worked in Flanders without incident. I found the people happy, very outgoing and eager to help.
Taking up the issue of racism in Flanders or Wallonia, I am a resident of Namur. I am a white, English Protestant. My grandparents spent several years in the mud of Flanders in World War II.
I, my wife and son have suffered constant racist abuse for the two years that we have lived in the province of Namur. And I mean blatant racist remarks every time we go out. Our home has been attacked several times and we are verbally abused by people that we have never spoken to.
The police are unconcerned as is the British embassy. The British Consul Michael Kerr stated that we should leave Belgium. When asked if that is the government advice to foreigners, he reconfirmed that it is probably best. The press office at the British embassy made an odd statement that Wallonians are probably rude because they do not understand us. It is not just mindless yobs, it is government officials, bank staff etc.
How can you live in a place where you are hated for displaying your own and Belgium's national flag in respect for those of WWII? How can you live in a place where the first thing they say to you is: 'This is Wallonia, go back to England'?
Yes, I made a big mistake buying here. We will probably lose thousands of euros selling our home. I have lived and worked all over Europe and have never come across this, not even in Ulster.
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