[ZeroHedge] The result of such broad, national responses is also poor “target efficiency,” because too little attention focuses on the more local reasons for where the problems are worse.
An excellent example of this is provided by recent research on the US murder rate by the Crime Prevention Research Center, and its president, John R. Lott Jr., whom I have known since we overlapped many years ago in the UCLA Economics PhD program. I would note that John’s work is often controversial, which also makes him a frequent subject of ad hominem attacks, because the empirical data he develops can strongly contradict what others are “selling” as the truth in some area, particularly with regard to crime. However, I have never seen him abuse logic and statistics to get a particular answer he set out to find (or was paid to, as many “researchers” are). His focus, which strongly reminds me of the work of Harold Demsetz, who taught both of us, is on designing empirical tests to differentiate among alternative explanations, then following where the evidence leads, rather than torturing evidence to create the “right” wrong answer.
Increases in homicide rates tend to be treated by state and federal politicians as if they are broadly distributed national problems to scare Americans into supporting overly broad-brush “solutions.”
But Lott’s research shows instead that “homicide rates have spiked, but most of America has remained untouched.”
Or as David Strom summarized the results, “There are vast swathes of the country where violent crime is very, very rare, and small areas of the country where it is common.” If that is true, we should focus our attention on those small areas, not on national policies poorly focused on where the actual problems are most severe.
Lott’s research, which used 2020 homicide data, examined the concentration of homicides in particular areas to see whether America’s increasing homicide problem is national or local. He let that data tell its story.
First, he focused on county-level data rather than national data. Some of the dramatic results he found:
The worst five counties (Cook, Los Angeles, Harris, Philadelphia, and New York) accounted for about 15 percent of homicides.
The worst 1 percent of counties (31), with 21 percent of the US population, accounted for 42 percent of the homicides.
The worst 2 percent of counties (62), with 31 percent of the population, accounted for 56 percent of the homicides.
The worst 5 percent of counties (155), with 47 percent of the population, accounted for 73 percent of the homicides.
In contrast, over half of US counties (52 percent) had zero homicides in 2020, and roughly one-sixth of the counties (16 percent) had only one.
Continuing his investigation, Lott looked at even finer-scale zip code data for Los Angeles County. He found that the worst 10 percent of zip codes in the county accounted for 41 percent of the homicides, and the worst 20 percent accounted for a total of 67 percent of the homicides.
From such data, Lott concluded that: “Murder isn’t a nationwide problem.” Instead, “It’s a problem in a small set of urban areas, and even in those counties murders are concentrated in small areas inside them, and any solution must reduce those murders.”
Despite the constant political and media drumbeat to portray homicides as a national problem that threatens everyone everywhere, and thus demands national solutions in line with what the political Left wants, the evidence points us in a far more local direction.
That may well explain the political reason for the volume and persistence of that drumbeat. It provides camouflage for those whose policies (and those who support them) would come under far greater scrutiny if people recognized just how concentrated homicides are and then asked what is different in those places, rather than the “blame America first” bromides they are routinely misdirected toward today.
But that means if we really cared about those most harmed by the murder rate, rather than imposing broader-than-necessary restrictions on Americans, it is important to follow the evidence so many would prefer to keep hidden.
[Breitbart] The Los Angeles City Council voted unanimously on Wednesday to convert a natural gas power plant to a new hydrogen system that critics say may not provide enough power and could cause more environmental damage.
The proposal is part of a “Green New Deal” adopted by former mayor Eric Garcetti to shutter three natural gas plants in favor of “renewable” energy — over objections that solar and wind power would not be sufficient, and that the move would cost thousands of union jobs.
Garcetti stuck with his plan even after the state suffered electricity shortages in 2020 and after Democrats lost a local special election in which the plan was a key issue.
The city council voted to take the first steps to implement Garcetti’s plan, according to the Los Angeles Times:
The Los Angeles City Council voted unanimously Wednesday to move forward with an $800-million plan to convert the city’s largest gas-fired power plant to green hydrogen — a first-of-its-kind project that was hailed by supporters as an important step to solve the climate crisis but slammed by critics as a greenwashing boondoggle that will harm vulnerable communities.
…
The city’s ultimate goal is burning 100% green hydrogen — but [Department of Water and Power] officials have acknowledged the technology might not be ready right away. That means the initial fuel mix at Scattergood might include more planet-warming natural gas than hydrogen.
…
In public comments before the vote, critics from groups including Communities for a Better Environment, Pacoima Beautiful and the Sierra Club noted that although hydrogen doesn’t produce planet-warming carbon emissions when burned, it does generate lung-damaging nitrogen oxide pollution — much more than gas, at least using current technology.
The city’s goal is to produce 100% “clean” electricity by 2035 — an even more aggressive goal than the state’s target of 100% renewable by 2045, though a recent state analysis suggested there is no plan to achieve it.
#4
So, no discussion about likely needing to replace all the piping, because hydrogen molecules are tiny and "leaky", and tend to work their way through gaps that methane can't. Moving on to the subject of "hydrogen embrittlement" due to H working into molecular sized cracks.
And don't say you'll use plastic pipes; pure H doesn't work well with hydrocarbon materials, at least in anything but the short term.
Posted by: ed in texas ||
02/11/2023 11:51 Comments ||
Top||
#5
"The city’s ultimate goal is burning 100% green hydrogen — but [Department of Water and Power] officials have acknowledged the technology might not be ready right away. "
Sounds suspiciously like a feel-good vote that will not actually change anything. At least the residents of LA should hope that is what it is.
Posted by: Tom ||
02/11/2023 13:33 Comments ||
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#7
The city’s goal is to produce 100% “clean” electricity by 2035 — an even more aggressive goal than the state’s target of 100% renewable by 2045, though a recent state analysis suggested there is no plan to achieve it.
They obviously learned nothing from the (more than $100 billion dollar) California high speed rail fiasco.
#9
As I recollect, Green hydrogen is made by cracking water using electrical power created at the site from solar. Good luck, that tech isn’t here yet in any efficient way.
[Doomburg] Back when the media establishment was against war and distrusted the US intelligence apparatus, Seymour Hersh was considered a top-tier investigative journalist. He routinely reported on scandals within the upper branches of the US government, winning just about every prestigious journalism award along the way. In 1974, Hersh broke the story that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was spying on domestic anti-war activists, behavior that was in direct violation of the law. The resulting howls of outrage were loud, and the nation was captivated by the congressional hearings that followed.
Of course, that was 50 years ago, and much has changed since then. Our leaders have become alarmingly comfortable harnessing the near-limitless powers of the intelligence community for raw political purposes, and being anti-war has somehow morphed into an "alt-right" or "pro-Putin" position. Perhaps uncoincidentally, Hersh’s reporting came to be seen as a bit of a nuisance, and his reputation as a journalist was put under assault. In 2015, Hersh wrote skeptically about the Obama administration’s narrative surrounding the killing of Osama Bin Laden, and an orgy of attack pieces was unleashed in traditional media outlets. Here’s how Trevor Timm described the ugly affair in the prestigious Columbia Journalism Review (emphasis added throughout):
#2
Just thinking out loud...
If I wanted to discredit a story, what better way than to leak it to someone like Seymour. In addition to the basic plot, you would include lots of juicy details to add authenticity, but don't forget to hide one or two tidbits that can be easily shown to be false.
#4
Yeah, read the Hersh thing. Lotsa colorful details, and not a single traceable fact. Buncha "couldabeen".
Posted by: ed in texas ||
02/11/2023 10:28 Comments ||
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#5
Guardian praised Hersh years ago but today they sweep him under the rug. Boundary placed on him. Little or no interest in today's media. Especially UK, Germany and many others in the West in isolated cabal. Stifle debate, freedom, democracy, rule of law. What sort of Democracy are we.
#7
Democracy is now a poisoned word, like gay or spade. It has a loaded meaning that has nothing to do with what it used to mean.
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
02/11/2023 17:36 Comments ||
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#8
"Representative Republic"
Posted by: Frank G ||
02/11/2023 19:04 Comments ||
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#9
Us: "If you dare do that thing that you're gonna do anyway, so help us, we'll kill some kittens! And you'll look really mean and the whole world will hate you! Uh..." [kittens queue for ferry to Vyborg]
[American Greatness] In testimony before the House Judiciary Committee’s first hearing on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, Senator Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) detailed how a "triad" of partisan media, FBI, and Democrats used disinformation from a Russian agent to smear their investigation into Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings.
In addition to Grassley, the committee on Thursday heard from Senator Ron Johnson (R- Wis.), Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), former U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, former FBI agent Thomas Baker, Professor Jonathan Turley, and former FBI agent Nicole Parker.
"In the past few years, I’ve never seen so much effort from the FBI, the partisan media, and some of my Democrat colleagues to interfere with with and undermine very legitimate congressional inquiries," Grassley said at the beginning of his testimony.
As one glaring example of this, Grassley cited the FBI’s corrupt Crossfire Hurricane investigation that sought to torpedo Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign for president, and when that failed, hobble his presidency and punish his associates.
"Bit by bit, piece by piece, it’s been deconstructed and shown to be a politically motivated investigation," he testified.
The senator said that the most recent example of the "triad at work" involved their attempts to undermine his and Sen. Johnson’s investigation into Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings, which began in August of 2019. At the time, Grassley was the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, and Johnson was chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Committee.
#1
“We acquired authentic bank records that substantiated the findings of our previous two reports that financially linked Hunter Biden and James Biden to entities and individuals connected to the Communist Chinese regime,” he said. “We also acquired business records with Hunter and James Biden’s signatures alongside those same Communist Chinese nationals.”
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
[Doomburg] Back when the media establishment was against war and distrusted the US intelligence apparatus, 
“We acquired authentic bank records that substantiated the findings of our previous two reports that financially linked Hunter Biden and James Biden to entities and individuals connected to the Communist Chinese regime,” he said. “We also acquired business records with Hunter and James Biden’s signatures alongside those same Communist Chinese nationals.”.jpg)
