h/t Gates of Vienna
Vladimir Putin isnt the Easter Bunny. On the other hand, he isnt Joseph Stalin. It takes a truly fevered imagination to see Russian forces in the Crimea as a prelude to Russian tanks rolling across Europe toward Berlin and Paris.
Putin is a power player who cares more about Russias national interests, and Russian minorities in his near abroad, than in that mythical force known as world opinion. Would that America had a president who cared more about our interests than in promoting globalism and the lefts social agenda.
The Crimeas population is 60% ethnic Russian. For most of the past 800 years, the Ukraine has been Russian.
An independent Ukraine disappeared in the 12th century. It reappeared briefly after the Bolshevik Revolution, only to be crushed by the Red Army and not emerge again until the fall of the Soviet Union. All of this fuss about the territorial integrity of a state born yesterday.
The Russian-backed government in Kiev came to power democratically, but was ousted by the Maidan mob. Were told that the interim government is pro-Western and pro-EU.
When Reagan was president, the expression pro-Western meant something. It meant pro-representative government, pro-human rights and pro-Western (Judeo-Christian) values.
Today, it means a willingness to accept same-sex marriage, abortion on demand, an anti-religion ethos the agenda of the EUs cultural commissars -- and the economic dictates of the Brussels bureaucracy.
Putin doesnt want to see the EU -- and, possibly, NATO --- on his doorstep. Do you blame him? If someone overthrew a democratically elected, pro-American government in Ottawa and replaced it with an interim regime hostile to our interests, that contained neo-Nazi elements and which immediately moved against English-speaking Canadians, it would irritate us too. It would, that is, if there was an American in the White House.
But dont I care about a possible Russian annexation of the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine (with its Russian-oriented, Orthodox population), conservatives who are still fighting the Cold War ask me? Not really. Ill tell you what does concern me:
But as then-Army Chief of Staff George W. Casey, Jr. said at the time of the Ft. Hood massacre (which the administration still refuses to call a terrorist incident), diversity is the New Action Armys most important product. Perhaps we could deploy an elite unit, armed with vibrators, to the Crimea to counter Spetsnaz commandos.
[DAWN] ABDUL Razzaq Buneri, an Awami National Party (ANP) leader and Pakhtun trader, refused to pay Rs20 million to the Pak Taliban after he received numerous threatening telephone calls which were traced to Afghanistan and North Wazoo.
Recently, the banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistain (TTP) killed two police personnel in charge of his security; and his home and business in Bloody Karachi ...formerly the capital of Pakistain, now merely its most important port and financial center. It is among the largest cities in the world, with a population of 18 million, most of whom hate each other and many of whom are armed and dangerous... were targeted twice in three months. Although ANP politicians have chosen to lie low in Karachi's Pakhtun-dominated areas, they have been intimidated into leaving their constituencies, their offices forcibly closed and their leaders murdered.
By attacking local ANP leaders and Pakhtun elders, extorting and threatening residents and businesses, and forming parallel courts providing rough justice in exchange for support, the TTP is consolidating its hold over parts of Karachi. Aqeel Yousafzai, a Beautiful Downtown Peshawar ...capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly known as the North-West Frontier Province), administrative and economic hub for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. Peshawar is situated near the eastern end of the Khyber Pass, convenient to the Pak-Afghan border. Peshawar has evolved into one of Pakistan's most ethnically and linguistically diverse cities, which means lots of gunfire. -based security analyst, explains that killing influential Pakhtun elders is a key Taliban strategy, initially successful in Afghanistan, then Fata and KP and now happening in Karachi. Previous infighting between Hakimullah Mehsud's Karachi faction and the hardline Waliur Rehman group, the latter which attacked ANP activists, also resulted in much violence in these areas.
Shahi Syed, ANP's president in Sindh, concurs. With more than 800 workers killed between 2008 and 2013 in Pakistain, including over 60 in the last three years in Karachi, he explains that his party is a target because they had initially opposed the Taliban's ideology, as they believe in Bacha Khan's philosophy of non-violence.
According to a TTP krazed killer from the Khan Saeed faction in Sohrab Goth, "We target specific traders, especially from the ANP, and collect money from them or those who make money through illicit means," he says on condition of anonymity. He confirms that the TTP shura decided to target liberal political parties, including the ANP, for their secular doctrine and also because they were responsible for offensives against the TTP in Swat ...a valley and an administrative district in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistain, located 99 mi from Islamabad. It is inhabited mostly by Pashto speakers. The place has gone steadily downhill since the days when Babe Ruth was the Sultan of Swat... and districts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa ... formerly NWFP, still Terrorism Central... .
Over the last two years the TTP has shifted its strategy to territorial control, becoming increasingly involved in the city's pie fights, thus adopting the modus operandi of its more secular rivals -- something which, incidentally, had already been practised by sectarian organizations, particularly in North Karachi.
According to French analyst Laurent Gayer, there exists a blueprint for unofficial governance involving the coercive exploitation of economic rents, and the provision of public services, either by rebooting public institutions or by setting up de facto bodies providing health services, justice, and security.
However, you can observe a lot just by watching... while TTP affiliates from South Waziristan, Swat (Mullah Fazlullah ...son-in-law of holy man Sufi Mohammad. Known as Mullah FM, Fazlullah had the habit of grabbing his FM mike when the mood struck him and bellowing forth sermons. Sufi suckered the Pak govt into imposing Shariah on the Swat Valley and then stepped aside whilst Fazlullah and his Talibs imposed a reign of terror on the populace like they hadn't seen before, at least not for a thousand years or so. For some reason the Pak intel services were never able to locate his transmitter, much less bomb it. After ruling the place like a conquered province for a year or so, Fazlullah's Talibs began gobbling up more territory as they pushed toward Islamabad, at which point as a matter of self-preservation the Mighty Pak Army threw them out and chased them into Afghanistan... faction responsible for killing ANP leaders) and Mohmand Agency ... Named for the Mohmand clan of the Sarban Pahstuns, a truculent, quarrelsome lot. In Pakistain, the Mohmands infest their eponymous Agency, metastasizing as far as the plains of Peshawar, Charsadda, and Mardan. Mohmands are also scattered throughout Pakistan in urban areas including Karachi, Lahore, and Quetta. In Afghanistan they are mainly found in Nangarhar and Kunar... (with extortion expertise) may wield power in certain townships by forming organizational networks and relationships with local krazed killer groups, it is hugely unlikely that this would translate into votes or a solid support base.
Explaining that the TTP in any case has no political ambitions in urban centres, and continues to use Karachi mainly for fundraising, Muhammad Amir Rana, director at the Pakistain Institute for Peace Studies, says its activities could be controlled if provincial governments had larger security budgets.
In several Pakhtun townships, the TTP, with its illicit enforcement authority, is virtually the only decision-maker. Local residents say almost nothing gets done without its nod. Protection money rackets previously exclusive to certain political parties have multiplied since 2000, with competitive players fundraising for both the Pak and the Afghan Taliban. The TTP has also penetrated lucrative businesses, particularly in Sohrab Goth, forcibly imposing flat rates to eliminate competition among transporters, in order to receive regular hefty commissions.
The police, for their part, claim that Karachi's diverse population poses tough challenges. With the Pakhtun community constituting 22pc of the population, the TTP finds ethnic sanctuaries in a city policed by under-resourced and ill-trained personnel. "It is difficult to identify and arrest high-level Taliban capos living in rented homes in Defence, Gulshan-e-Iqbal and Nazimabad. Home to over one million undocumented Democrats Karachi allows the TTP to disappear without a trace. We don't have a defined database to identify terrorists, like Nadra," says Karachi police spokesperson Imran Shaukat.
Although the police lost more than 200 officers to violence in 2013, the fact that law enforcement agencies have largely failed to bring the perpetrators to account is partly because witnesses are threatened in court and with no witness protection programme, there is little chance of successful prosecutions.
And of course, because the police worry about being killed.
So where do we go from here? As the distance between governance, policing, economic progress and urban militancy decreases, we need steadfast political will, a counterterrorism budget and a few good men to clean up the mess.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/06/2014 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[7 views]
Top|| File under: Govt of Pakistan
#1
a blueprint for unofficial governance involving the coercive exploitation of economic rents, and the provision of public services, either by rebooting public institutions or by setting up de facto bodies providing health services, justice, and security
We have our own methods to coerce economic rents, and don't need yours, thank you very much.
#2
Karachi police have insufficient technology to create a proper "defined database" to identify terrorist suspects, so they carry the information in their heads. Unfortunately, those heads keep getting cut off.
[DAWN] THE government-Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistain talks are now becoming an unending soap opera with its interminable twists and turns.
The latest one came on Wednesday with the reports that while the two committees in their latest meeting had set the stage for some jaw-jaw, the government committee wants itself disbanded and a new one formed to carry out the second phase of the negotiations.
If the reports are to be believed, the new committee will have the PML-N's peacenik number one, Interior Minister Nisar Ali Khan, as the focal person, along with military officials, representation from the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa ... formerly NWFP, still Terrorism Central... government as well as the governor of the province.
Background conversations with those close to the government committee reveal that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif ... served two non-consecutive terms as prime minister, heads the Pakistain Moslem League (Nawaz). Noted for his spectacular corruption, the 1998 Pak nuclear test, border war with India, and for being tossed by General Musharraf... has more or less agreed to these suggestions and will reconstitute the committee to make it more representative (by including a key person of the federal government and of the KP government which is ruled by a party that is one of the biggest proponents of the talks) as well as the military, which is a stakeholder by all accounts.
He has, goes one rumour, even assured the committee members that he will be able to convince the military to join the new committee instead of observing from the sidelines.
However, a woman is only as old as she admits... the possible inclusion of the military has already become controversial.
Khurshid Shah of the PPP, the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, opposed the idea on the floor of the assembly on Wednesday morning, calling it "dangerous".
What the PTI thinks of the suggestion is unclear at the moment; parliamentarian Shafqat Mahmood explained that the party was still to sit down and consider the proposal though he said that his party was in favour of any step that will make the talks "more meaningful" with those who are willing to talk.
But while the political parties have already begun to voice an opinion on the ongoing issue of talks, the army continues to maintain an eerie silence. When asked a military official simply said that the "chief was out of the country and that there had been no formal request for the military's participation in the talks. The issue will be decided on his return and when and if a request is received".
However, a clean conscience makes a soft pillow... the current committee is quite certain that its job is now ending.
These suggestions, said a committee member, reflected the general opinion of all the members. Rahimullah Yusufzai, a journalist and member of the government committee, points out, "I had said from the first day that our role was that of controllers; in addition, we had always pushed for strengthening the committee, making it more effective."
Someone close to another committee member explained it thus: "The TTP is going to begin negotiations by asking for prisoners to be released, the withdrawal of the military from certain areas and other such conditions. The committee cannot deliver on these demands."
He did not need to add that the military is the only player that can deliver on these demands. But this is what the committee members meant when they said after the meeting in Akora Khattak that the first phase was over -- where a ceasefire has been publicly announced (who cares for minor hiccups such as the attacks in Islamabad and Hangu) and both sides were now ready to talk.
In the second phase, conditions will have to be communicated by both sides and what the TTP will ask for is not a secret and neither is the identity of the institution capable of delivering on them.
But there are a number of reasons why the inclusion of the army on the committee will be problematic.
First and foremost, it will be an official recognition of the imbalance in the civil-military relations in Pakistain. In a working democracy, the army reports to and is subservient to a political government.
Hence, any committee that includes a government representative and reports to the prime minister directly should be able to speak on behalf of the military.
The suggestion made on Wednesday, on the other hand, is based on the recognition that be it Irfan Siddiqui (an unelected official whose presence in the government depends on his ability to keep Sharif happy) or Interior Minister Khan (an elected representative) they cannot make a commitment on behalf of the military because the latter operates independently of the elected government.
However correct this may be, would the PML-N and Sharif like to officially acknowledge this? A third-time prime minister and the first to survive a military coup to return to the parliament, Sharif has so far presented himself as a leader in control of the foreign and security policy. Will he now let this image shatter even if the inclusion of the military to the talks will prove for once and for all that he and the army are on the same proverbial page?
Apart from Sharif's preferences, the military will also not find this easy to manage. In background conversations, army officers express their discomfort with the government policy to talk to the forces of Evil who continue to carry out attacks on the armed personnel without any respite.
On Wednesday itself, an attack in Hangu claimed the lives of six FC soldiers and injured 11 others. And unlike the government, military officials have been arguing for months that despite the different names, organizations and origins, most turban groups are one and the same.
In this context, it is not going to be easy for the military leadership or its representatives to sit across the table from the TTP, so to speak.
Agreed that the military made similar agreements -- and equally publicly -- in Musharraf's time.
But it is difficult to find even a retired military officer who is now willing to defend agreements such as Shakai and Sararogha. And the agreements with people such as Hafiz Gul Bahadur are more limited in their scope while ensuring that these forces of Evil do not attack the military.
The TTP, on the other hand, has acquired an image far different from Gul Bahadur. It is now seen as the organization that personifies the existential threat to the country and to the armed forces. Talking to it and that too publicly will earn the military far more ire than it earned Prime Minister Sharif.
After all, if the constituencies of the two are considered, Sharif's support base has accepted his efforts at peace quietly -- so far -- but the military leadership's constituency may find it hard to swallow.
In other words, it could prove to be a big gamble for Chief of Army Staff Raheel Sharif, this early on in his tenure.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/06/2014 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[6 views]
Top|| File under: Govt of Pakistan
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
Mohmand Agency
Nawaz Sharif
