The United States is backing off from the Middle East -- and the Middle East from the United States.
America is in the midst of the greatest domestic gas and oil revolution since the early 20th century. If even guarded predictions about new North American reserves are accurate, over the next decade the entire continent may become energy-independent, with little need of petroleum imports from the Middle East.
This coincides with mounting Chinese dependency on Middle Eastern oil and gas. So as the Persian Gulf becomes less important to us, it grows even more critical to the oil-hungry, cash-laden -- and opportunistic -- Chinese.
After two wars in the Middle East, Americans are as tired of our forces being sent over there as Middle Easterners are of having us there.
The usual Arab complaint against the United States during the Cold War was that it supported anti-communist authoritarians in the oil-rich Gulf and ignored democratic reform. After the 1991 Gulf War, the next charge was that America fought Saddam Hussein only to free an oil-rich, pro-American monarchy in Kuwait, without any interest in helping reformists in either Kuwait or Iraq.
#1
We could be energy independent, but lack the will We can't even open a pipeline bordering the Arctic Circle
Posted by: regular joe ||
09/01/2012 8:44 Comments ||
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#2
Well good riddance to those backward 7th century magic rock worshiping savages if we do ever find the will to become oil independent. When the oil is gone and they're living in tents again maybe they'll calm down. Let the Israelis keep a lid on all those douchebags in the meantime.
The occupy enviro-loons will never sit down and shut up long enough for this to ever happen though.
#6
Minding our own fok'n business and distancing ourselves from these feudal, problematic people is a good thing in and of itself. Forecasting or banking on potential long-term outcomes is yet another matter.
"Some Englishmen, of whom Kitchener was chief, believed that a rebellion of Arabs against Turks would enable England, while fighting Germany, simultaneously to defeat Turkey. Their knowledge of the nature and power and country of the Arabic-speaking peoples made them think that the issue of such a rebellion would be happy: and indicated its character and method. So they allowed it to begin..."
◦ Introductory Chapter. Seven Pillars of Wisdom (1922)
#8
This next ME war will not be like the previous ones. This one will be disastrous for Iran and very bloody for Israel. Israel will be too busy cleaning up debris & bodies to worry about "world opinion".
#10
As in Africa, today's Middle East is littered with the unfinished business of decades past. We have a feckless peanut farmer just down the road for me to thank for the current unfinished business in Iran. The really unfortunate thing is we appear to be farming the finishing out to a scrappy little fellow from a tough family who can't afford to lose the fight. He either wins or dies. Shameful, quite shameful indeed.
#11
at least property will be cheap in the ME, after enough half-lives
Posted by: Frank G ||
09/01/2012 12:04 Comments ||
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#12
The surprising thing to me is the degree of COMPLACENCY that exists in the world right now. There seems to be an incredible hubris amongst the Western Governments that they can control all the risks. The world is not ready for the next ME war - although it is staring us in the face.
More surprising is the degree of complacency within Israel itself. These people are on the verge of experiencing the hardest time they have ever been through. Where are the preparations??? Every day is vital to Israel now ... all kinds of emergency preparations should be taking place. They are hardly ready for what is coming.
Complacency.
"Circumstances rule men; men do not rule circumstances."
Herodotus
#13
Okay... if this happens there needs to be international air portals that vector all flights to/from the mid-east to rescreening centers before permitting them entry into the rest of the world's air system. Preferably some sort of ground transport from these centers to normal airports. No direct air connection.
Posted by: Water Modem ||
09/01/2012 12:43 Comments ||
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#14
Very likely the world will react by isolating ME air traffic. It would be absolutely necessary from a security point of view. Not only flights to placers like Turkey, Iran, Lebanon, Syria will be affected ... but probably places like Pak as well. The threat of terrorism will be too high.
But for Israel the bigger issue is that it is likely to be ostracized by the global community - and could be the subject of serious sanctions. This is why I am saying that the Israelis are remarkably complacent ... they need to be stocking all essential supplies right now. They cannot assume anything about the future.
#17
More surprising is the degree of complacency within Israel itself. These people are on the verge of experiencing the hardest time they have ever been through. Where are the preparations???
Raider, the Israelis have been hardening themselves (I think that,s the right military term). We've had articles here at Rantburg recently about gas masks provided by the government, bomb shelters in Tel Aviv parking garages, anti-missile arrays being set up not just near the Gaza Strip, but also facing Syria and Lebanon, and serious fencing being built all along the borders with Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria. There have been drills across the country for missile strike preparation... What more do you think Israel ought to do?
#18
I think that the next ME conflict will be different - because Israel could experience a very strong backlash from the global community. Israel may be forced to strike first in the war with Iran - but this means they will also get the blame. In the event that the US suffers its own collateral damage (e.g. a missile attack by Iran on an American warship), the relationship between America and Israel could become overtly hostile. It depends on Gov'ts and politicians. This is a turn of events that Israel has never experienced before. It represents a worst-case scenario - but one they cannot rule out. Israel could be affected by a global trade embargo.
If I was a private citizen living in Israel - I would be asking myself "what essential items will I really NEED in the next year". It could include medicines & first aid, maybe vitamins and preserved food, water filters, etc. Then I would ask any contacts that I had in the USA (or elsewhere) to air-mail this stuff ASAP. You can never hurt by having too many supplies, but if you run low and the struggle is protracted - it could be very painful.
#19
And by the way .. same thing apply to normal families in Iran, Lebanon, Syria etc. Stocking up on all types of supplies is an essential activity. I would not be surprised to see them doing the same things.
#21
Statements followed by a question.... we know the minute Reagan removed his hand from that Bible at his swearing in as CIC, the Iranians released our hostage after 444 days.
It's no secret Romney and Netanyahu are personal friends. Also, it's already announced, that the Romney transition team is in place, already working with folks of various agencies.
We just also have to know, there have got to be gobs of plans inside the Pentagon about Iran -- ready for any situation.
Romney, if he isn't already, will soon be read in on the daily national security report. And it's got to be soon, that he will probably know of all the Pentagon's plans.
Mitt and Bibi are long time friends.
My question -- Bibi knows he gets the help he needs from Mitt --- does Israel have the time to wait till Romney's hand is lifted off that Bible?
#22
Bibi can hit, and expect a reprieve from Obama/International sanctions in January. I wonder who's polling harder here to see what will happen in November, Bibi or Obama?
Posted by: Frank G ||
09/01/2012 20:08 Comments ||
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Syria''s Kurds have emerged as a crucial player in the conflict. DW spoke to the head of the main Kurdish political party in northeasten Syria, Salih Muslim Muhammad, about the impact of the crisis on the Middle East.
#6
g(r)omgoru.. I note the Jordan river has Syria in its watershed. If the war over there gets nasty enough to screw up that water does Israel have enough alternate sources? (thinking of the Syrian chem and bio stockpile fetish)
Posted by: Water Modem ||
09/01/2012 10:31 Comments ||
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#7
#6. I don't know. I don't think anybody worried about this.
#3
Don't know what your biz is Daffy but most of us are worse off!
Posted by: Water Modem ||
09/01/2012 16:57 Comments ||
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#4
This cancerous notion has settled into the political parties and the Presidency that the second four years is a given--kind of like the ultimate entitlement. Like giving every kid in the class a trophy or award for being there. Sorry, you don't just vote present the first four years and expect to just settle in for the second four years.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
