Pyongyang's protectors are reviving Tokyo's military power. Wall Street Journal house editorial
No one knows how long it would take Japan to go nuclear, though estimates are days or weeks.* But for 60 years Japan has refrained from becoming a nuclear power and remained militarily quiescent. That particular sun may be rising again, however, thanks to the support by China and South Korea for the military threats of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il.
This is the meaning of a remarkable, but underreported, comment last week that Japan might want to knock out North Korea's missile bases with a pre-emptive military strike. "If we accept that there is no other option to prevent an attack . . . there is the view that attacking the launch base of the guided missiles is within the constitutional right of self-defense," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe. "We need to deepen discussion." The head of Japan's Defense Agency made a similar observation.
Article 9 of Japan's 1946 Constitution bars military force in settling international disputes and prohibits Japan from maintaining a military for the purpose of warfare. Even so, Japan has 243,000 men under arms and one of the world's most technologically capable militaries. Only the U.S., Russia and China spend more on defense.
The discussion Mr. Abe refers to has already begun--and in part he is only reflecting public opinion. North Korea's first Taepodong missile test, in 1998, shocked many Japanese and elevated national security as a political issue, leading to the election of hawkish Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in 2001. Virtually every poll since North Korean test also shows overwhelming public anxiety about North Korea and support for a strong response. . . .
*- Wikipedia on Japan's M-5 solid-fuelled booster:
"There are reports that the M-5 design was modeled after the LG-118A Peacekeeper ICBM which has similar dimensions and payload, and is also a three-stage solid fuel rocket. The M-5 design could certainly be weaponised quickly."
Posted by: Mike ||
07/16/2006 08:58 ||
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#1
Article 9 did not look into the future and see Kim standing at their door step, it must be ammended. Japan has every right to defend herself and a preemptive strike just might be the best defence.
Posted by: 49 Pan ||
07/16/2006 10:02 Comments ||
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#2
A nuclear Japan should keep Kimmie up at night. That would add an interesting dimension to the Asian theater.
#5
There are reports that the M-5 design was modeled after the LG-118A Peacekeeper ICBM
The Solid Rocket Boosters used on the H2-A would make excellent stages for a Heavy ICBM.
Posted by: john ||
07/16/2006 14:40 Comments ||
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#6
And you can bet that Mitsubishi could produce a miniaturized thermonuculear warhead for any ICBM very quickly.
Posted by: john ||
07/16/2006 14:43 Comments ||
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#7
I think these events are a result of Japan loosing some level of confidence in the US as a protector. After watching our internal politics over the last 4 years the Japanese government may not be willing to bet its life on the US willingness to protect them if things become really nasty. I canÂ’t say that I blame them when I look at the actions of the Democratic party over the last few years.
Posted by: Dan Canaveral ||
07/16/2006 16:44 Comments ||
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#8
Nations don't have permanent allies, only permanent interests.
There hasn't been a threat to Japanese survival till now. Korea also gives them a convenient excuse to arm up for their real enemy and threat, China.
#9
Maybe. Or maybe it's the result of Japan looking at the Chinese demographic bomb of huge numbers of young adult and adolescent males who will never find Chinese wives. And of Chinese swordrattling of the sort that countries with excess males tend to do.
And then looking at their own demographics, at the Chinese protection for the NORK nuclear / missile program and deciding that there was a need for a regional counterbalance. I know we've been encouraging them in that direction. We don't WANT to be the only ones pushing back.
#13
lotp: Maybe. Or maybe it's the result of Japan looking at the Chinese demographic bomb of huge numbers of young adult and adolescent males who will never find Chinese wives. And of Chinese swordrattling of the sort that countries with excess males tend to do.
This is a moronic fantasy dreamed up by people who think of China as a mirror image of the West. Please don't parrot it. China doesn't have a social security system. Parents rely on their kids for retirement - a tradition that is mirrored in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, all countries with large ethnic Chinese populations. Back in the days of large families, this used to mean two parents would be shuttled among five or six siblings. The one-child policy and the disproportionate gender ratio simply means that in some cases a single unmarried son will have to support two parents. He doesn't get to back away from his responsibilities simply because he can't get married. In China, as in some other East Asian countries, failure to support one's parents financially can result in fines and the garnishing of one's wages. This applies to sons and daughters alike.
Note also that in China, as in the West, you don't have to buy the cow in order to get the milk - you can rent it. Sometimes, you even get the milk for free - via non-committal relationships with single women as well as adulterous affairs - women marry certain men for money, and have affairs outside their marriages for love.
In fact, the above practices are a long-established tradition in Chinese history - which has always had shortages of marriageable women. Widows were considered bad luck and consequently out of the marriage market. Eligible women were sold into marriage, with bride prices (paid to the bride's parents) equivalent to several years of salary. Prior to the 20th century, polygamy was legal - Chinese law permitted men to marry as many women as they could afford. Today, polygamy is illegal, but Chinese men still marry multiple women off-the-books. Only one wife is legal, but these men maintain husband-and-wife relationships openly with their common-law second, third, et al wives and have children with their last names attached.
Whatever a Chinese youth does to get his rocks off - and there are strip joints, massage parlors and prostitutes galore in today's China (talk to the concierge at any hotel) for those who want zero commitment - he is still required, by law, by upbringing and by tradition to support his parents. He can't do that if he's dead. And that is why any Chinese war won't be able to rely on a horde of eager conscripts. The fact is that the Chinese man is not a rugged individualist. He is responsible to his ancestors for propagating the family line. Again, he can't do that if he's dead.
The Chinese Civil War was a really, really major exception because the Communists promised the tenant farmers that they would kill their landlords and distribute their lands. During the Korean War, the majority of the captured Communist Chinese POW's chose to go to Taiwan. The fact of the matter is that there are intensely ideological Chinese who think that China should wreak havoc upon countries they perceive as China's enemies. But most of them think someone else should do the fighting.
Total: 332
Average Per Day: 5
Average Visit Length: 1:13
Last Hour: 0
Today: 20
This Week: 34
Five a day? Has she become so irrelevant that you can count the number of people who come to read her writings using the fingers on one hand?
Over the last 30 days, her peak traffic was 44 hits on the June 18. At the time I write this, her day's traffic is 20. . . .
Her website was created by Theron Parlin, a part-time web designer, so I would doubt this is technical problem.
I just expected something else. A couple of thousand hits a day from adoring fans at Code Pink and elsewhere. But a couple of dozen?
Maybe this is an example of the difference between the media and the people they serve. Cindy Sheehan still makes it in the papers and on TV with her fasts and her foreign trips to visit the likes of Hugo Chavez. But in the blogosphere, where you choose what news you want to read, people are going elsewhere.
Interesting.
Posted by: Mike ||
07/16/2006 11:06 ||
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#1
and the five who visit do so to get information to mock her....
Posted by: Frank G ||
07/16/2006 11:40 Comments ||
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#2
Good grief, what a pathetic place she has. I held my nose and clicked through to have my eyes assailed by a B&W photo of some woman on the verge of crying, biting her lip - yuk. I then scrolled all the way down, there's about a dozen entries on the page, and three of them have comments. Three. One entry has one comment, another entry has, well, one comment, but the third entry has a veritable snowstorm of reader involvement - it has two comments.
Four comments in total on a blog of a woman who is getting huge amounts of MSM coverage.
IMHO, Steve is spot-on, when people choose, they tend to choose to ignore this woman...
Posted by: Tony (UK) ||
07/16/2006 11:53 Comments ||
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#3
The media has most cleverly created the false impression that she has a much bigger audience than what she has.
Jihad el-Khazen of Dar al-Hayat (House of Light), the London-Beirut mouthpiece for Arab crybabies, is fire-breathing against Michael Ledeen, from his safe London homestead. If Jihad had done his homework, he would know that Ledeen's support for military over democraticization options in the Middle East, hardly makes him a toady of either the Bush administration or Israel. A couple of years ago, I e-mailed Jihad, and told him that he should move to Beirut if he wants to spew front-line rhetoric. His reply, "Go f--- yourself." Crybabies do as crybabies are.
Ayoon Wa Azan (He Lies Like He Breathes) Jihad el-Khazen al-Hayat - 13/07/06
Michael Ledeen's role in the Iran/Contra scandal might be an ample evidence that he worked for Israel, yet I know another fact I noted in my book, "The Neo-Conservatives and the Zionist Christians". In 1983, the infamous Richard Pearl hinted that Ledeen should be appointed as expert consultant on terrorism at the Pentagon. Ledeen went to Rome with his supervisor, Assistant Secretary of Defense Noel Koch, who found out from the CIA head in Rome that when Ledeen worked in the Italian capital as editor for the radical "New Republic", he was registered as an "Israeli agent". Later, Koch tried to limit his access to secret documents. Nevertheless, in 1986, Ledeen was appointed as consultant in the National Security Council, yet doubts about his Israeli affiliation remained, thus his license to access secret documents was diminished one notch.
Knowing the background of Michael Ledeen I suspected from day one that he is somehow connected with the forged Niger documents about Iraq's attempt to buy uranium (yellow cake) from Niger. I have no proof so I do not level any accusations against him but rather offer the reader a summary of the material available on the subject.
There have been long-standing allegations that Ledeen was tied to the Italian P2 Masonic Lodge. This right-wing organisation was involved in a number of terrorist attacks in Italy in the 1970s and 1980s. It has been noted that Ledeen was working as a consultant to Italian intelligence on terror issues in the late 1970s... Michael: if you made this loser angry, you must be doing something right. Maybe this dork is mistaking Bnai Br'th for the Free Masons.
Moderator note: please use hilite for all your comments when you submit an article. Thanks!
Second moderator note: articles like this go into 'Opinion'. Thanks. AoS.
#3
Second sentence quoted, he misspells Richard Pearl (sic - Perle!). I'm surprised he spelled Iran correctly. Sheesh - can these people get anything right? Wholly forgetting the noxious politics, is the sky blue, which way is up, does a bear . . .. Enough already.
Sometimes I like Ralph and sometimes not. Today I don't.
July 16, 2006 -- THE violence that scorched the Middle East this time didn't result from a sly Iranian plot. It was the product of emotion, miscalculation, impulsiveness and folly. On all sides.
Here's a sound rule in analyzing problems anywhere between Cairo and Karachi: Never ascribe to a calculated strategy what can be blamed on passionate incompetence.
Another iron rule that applies to this and every Israeli attempt to strike back at Islamist terrorists is that, just when the Israeli Defense Forces really start to hurt the enemy, the world community - including the United States - intervenes to save the terrorists from destruction.
Europeans have more sympathy with Iran's nuclear program than they do with Israel's attempts at self-defense. But, then, the only thing continental Europeans regret about the Holocaust is that they didn't get to finish the job. Even as Europe suffers its own attacks by Islamist terrorists, Europeans defend the selfsame terrorists against Israeli retribution.
Meanwhile, the flare-up that began last week resulted from bad judgment on the part of every organization and state involved - as well as producing some spectacularly bad analysis by our herd-like media.
#2
The question in my mind is whether Israel's genocidal enemies will be saved by the bell this time. I'm beginning to be hopeful that they will get a lot of rope. Let's hope they use it better than the Paleos did.
#3
He certainly seems to be way ahead of himself here, presuming that this will be a repeat of past mistakes. Almost knee-jerk in its blatant simplicity. He charactrizes some of the players very well (hell, who cant?), but the Olmert Admin? The Bush Admin?
I wonder if he has chafed and objected to the "It's Vitenam all over again! Quagmire!" BS... yet that's what he's doing.
Now is not then. We are not them.
The Bush Administration is not very much like any previous administration I can recall. I suspect it's pretty close to Truman's, but it's hard to be sure of the day-to-day flavor of something that ended before I was born.
I call bullshit.
I'm happy to allow this to occur in the here and now. For the moment, anyway, Olmert is exceeding my expectations and Bush is meeting them.
Ralph has heartburn or gas. Or both. I think this often happens when someone is contracted to deliver a column and a certain day, has some sort of reputation to protect, and hasn't made up his /her mind WTF he /she wants to say.
#8
I guess this guy considers chemo a tragedy of errors in the fight against cancer because the chemo does so much damage to the body's healthy cells along with the cancerous ones.
#9
The Iranian government was as surprised as anyone.
bullshit foundation for the rest of his statements.
Posted by: Frank G ||
07/16/2006 19:02 Comments ||
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#10
Israel hopes to pressure the Lebanese government into taking action against Hezbollah. But Lebanon's leaders can't do that. If they ordered their work-in-progress military to attack and disarm Hezbollah, some Lebanese Armed Forces units would mutiny, others would disintegrate - and any outfits that attempted to take on Hezbollah would be badly and swiftly defeated. And the action would reignite the country's dormant civil war.
And that's bad for Israel because?
p.s. Syria has constraints (destruction of their military --> extermination of Alawites by the Sunny majority). Hisballa, was a non-state player with WMD (10000 area denial rockets are a WDM)
#11
I think Ralph has a defensible point. The Lebanese government is weak more than it is malicious. If it falls, a more pro-Syria government will likely replace it. Bombing the airport and creating a jam-up of potential hostages (foreign nationals) trying to get out does not seem to me to be a great idea in terms of tactics vs. Hezbollah or PR. Syria and Iran are the real enemies here.
OTOH, the Lebanese government seems to lack the will to do anything about Hezbollah and Israel has been clear that, if it did, Israel would stand down. In the end it could be that Israeli positions are relieved by Lebanese Army units if and when Hezbollah heads for the hills.
I believe that the same terrorist organisation, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), is behind the serial blasts in Srinagar and Mumbai. Of course, it is part of Pakistan's well-thought out strategy, but the lack of political will to fight terror in the present government is also responsible for giving a fillip to terrorism.
Just a few days back, came the news that Al Qaeda had handed over full responsibility of rapidly spreading terror in India to Lashkar. The government should have realised that in addition to Jammu and Kashmir, cities such as Mumbai and Delhi, and other sensitive places, would be the targets of terror. The security agencies should have been directed that they were free to take the strictest and firmest possible measures. But, alas, this was not done.
These serial blasts have to be seen in the background of the failures suffered by our missile and satellite launch programmes recently, and are basically a result of a conspiracy by Pakistan. Pakistan is trying to demonstrate how badly it can hurt us by causing losses to us.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: john ||
07/16/2006 00:00 ||
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I'm not paying to read his ??? but this is a reprint of a commenter at From Beirut to the Beltway. In his piece he says that Hizbollah actually managed to attack Israel's Northern command - something I haven't seen elsewhere. The online article is unfortunately subscription only and I'm too lazy to type it all out from my print copy, but the relevant section:
"The long-range Iranian made missiles which later exploded on Haifa had been preceded only a few weeks ago by a pilotless Hizbollah drone aircraft which surveyed northern Israel and then returned to land in eastern Lebanon after taking photographs during its flight.
"These pictures not only suggested a flight path for Hizbollah's rocket attacks to Haifa; they also identified Israel's top secret military air traffic control centre in Miron.
"The next attack - concealed by Israel's censors - was directed at this facility. Code named "Apollo", Israeli military scientists work deep inside mountain caves and bunkers at Miron, watching all air traffic moving in and out of Beirut, Damascus, Amman and other cities. The mountain is surrounded by clusters of antennae which Hizbollah quickly identified as a military tracking centre. Before they fired rockets at Haifa, they therefore sent a cluster of missiles towards Miron. The caves are untouchable but the targeting of such a secret location by Hizbollah deeply shocked Israel's military planners.
"The 'centre of the war on terror' - or whatever they imagine Lebanon to be - could not only breach their frontier and capture their soldiers but attack the nerve centre of the Israeli northern military command" ...
The world is hypnotized by the modern American way of combat.
Precision munitions that strike military targets with minimal collateral damage. A "civilized" means of war.
However we should not forget that it is not the only way to wage war. And that another option exists for Israel if they are to attack Iran. The Dresden option.
All agree that the Iranians have gone to great lengths to protect their nuclear and missile programs. What they have not done is to protect their people.
Teheran is an urbane and sophisticated city, which is deeply divided in its support for the Iranian government. The city of Qom, on the other hand, it the power base of the mullahs, the training center for legions of Imams who sustain their theocracy.
So I propose this consideration: with all the conventional horror it can muster, Israel *not* waste its resources attacking facilities buried deeply under rock. Instead, that it reduce the city of Qom. Wipe it from the face of the Earth. That it leave not a single living thing. Firebombing.
No orphaned children or weeping widows. Just scorched earth and rubble, left behind with conventional weapons. An entire city, blasted to oblivion.
Then entreat the Iranian people for peace. Not their government, but go directly to their people. Ask them if this is what they crave for their nation. Tell them, that with Israel's nuclear weapons, they could do to every city in Iran what they did to Qom, and no one could stop them. A single Jew could wipe out their entire nation.
Then say to them the truth, that their government has said it is willing that all of them should die in this way. And if they wish it, then indeed they shall die. But if they do not wish to die, then they must replace their government with another that does not wish for them to die in fire.
And they must do it now. Because their government has offered their lives, their souls, and their nation, not to Allah, but to Satan. And very soon, unless they act now, Satan is coming to collect them all.
#1
Appealing to rationality certainly makes sense to the unindoctrinated - us, especially with the demonstration of power. I do not know if it would connect with the automatic knee-jerk Jooo haters, though. And that describes the majority of Persians -- and many of the other occupants of Iran, I believe.
I shudder to think of the political pressure Bush would feel. He is currently saying that Israel has the right to defend itself, but simultaneously following the mainline thinking that Israel must at least try to minimize civilian casualties.
Something premeditatedly heinous, such as Hizbollah taking a busload or ten of civilians trying to escape Beirut as hostages - and viciously killing them, would be required to make this something Bush could even remotely condone. To be blunt, lots of MSM coverage of dead babies would be required. God that's an awful thought. I need a shower, now.
And Israel needs the US - for resupply, if nothing else.
#3
phil_b: Iran is a very big country with plenty of defenses. A typical fight with them would be bruising. So what I have proposed is both a psychological knock-out punch and something that hits their elitist Mullah government directly.
Remember that 80% of their population is young, and really has no beef with the US, and in fact detests the Mullahs. However, they do not really grasp the horror of war. Like everybody else in Iran, they just don't "get" nuclear war.
Qom is a religious city, a "sacred" city to Shiites, and the heart of their religious government. Were it to be annihilated in a brutal way, it would strike right at the Mullahs, and it would convince their young population that they had better act, and quick.
But this destruction would have to be immediately leaped on by the Israelis, to broadcast into every Iranian home, via satellite, that *this* is what their leaders are doing. They are threatening to destroy Iran. Israel just wants to be left alone, but it can do this to every single city in Iran. Nothing will be left. Only madmen want such things. Stop your government now.
Iran expects something like Gulf War I. They stupidly think they can "win" in a war like that. They have all sorts of stupid and murderous tricks they are ready to pull. And if things develop in the normal way, it will be a terrible blood bath.
Would it have been worth it for the US to invade Japan at the end of WWII? Just two nuclear bombs, destroying two cities, ended it and spared countless lives.
#6
personal hurt will help the MM's see the light- strike their residences, their assets, their families and their friends. Those still alive will be powerless
Posted by: Frank G ||
07/16/2006 18:55 Comments ||
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#7
Just hit the refineries. Iran already imports a large share of its gasoline. Flatten them, the declare a ceasefire (what's the Hebrew word for hudna anyway). Makes any economic sanctions much more effective.
#9
I hope so too Grom - my (Catholic) prayers are with Israel ( as if you couldn't tell....)
Posted by: Frank G ||
07/16/2006 21:08 Comments ||
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#10
gromgoru: In past, I've suggested how Israel could not only shut down Iran's nuclear facilities, but how the Iranians would have to rebuild everything from scratch. And not only that, but have to train a whole new generation of nuclear scientists, too.
In a major covert operation, have transported in to their facilities quart-to-gallon sized containers hidden in something else.
The containers have an extremely toxic chemical agent or toxin that will destroy the human liver with a few ppm over the course of two weeks. They also have a timing device, a silent atomizer and fan.
Over the course of many days, a very fine mist is pumped into the air, circulating to every corner of the facility and contaminating everything. This happens in dozens of facilities simultaneously.
Eventually, many people at the facility become ill, then everyone becomes ill. Even those who visit the facility for a short time become deathly ill. All of their livers are destroyed, and there is no possible way to save their lives.
Replacements who are sent to the facility can function normally for a week or two, then they also die. There is no way to decontaminate such a structure, or even to recover most of its equipment without risking death.
Instead of killing hundreds of thousands, only a few hundred are killed. The nuclear program is ended for many years.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
OK, I'm going to do something here that some people won't like.
