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2025-05-29 Arabia
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Trump’s huge Saudi arms deal may be limited by US pledge to preserve Israel’s military edge
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[IsraelTimes] As Riyadh eyes advanced weaponry, Washington’s commitment to Israel’s defense supremacy means coveted F-35 fighter jets likely won’t be part of $142 billion in potential sales
A landmark $142 billion arms deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia
 ...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula, largely made up of sand and oil rigs. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual haj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. Formerly dictatorial and steeped in Olde Tyme Religion, deferring to Salafist holy men on all issues, it has now done a 180 and is making a serious effort to modernize, so as not to be left in the sand by its Gulf Arab neighbors. The holy men have been shoved to the background and the nation is now still dictatorial but somewhat rational. That doesn't make them trustworthy, but it's a start...
has the potential to reshape the way the Middle East looks from a defense perspective, significantly boosting Riyadh’s military might. But despite its high profile and even higher price tag, the arrangement will likely be limited by a longstanding US defense doctrine safeguarding Israel’s regional defense superiority, experts say.
While details about the deal remain scant, speculation surrounding what it may include has been colored by Saudi Arabian requests to purchase state-of-the-art F-35 fighter jets. But any such sale, analysts point out, would run afoul of a US commitment to Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge, or QME, which has long curtailed the transfer of certain advanced weaponry to the region.
The White House unveiled the deal, described as "the largest defense sales agreement in history," on May 13. According to a White House fact sheet, the US will supply Saudi Arabia with "state-of-the-art war-fighting equipment and services" from more than a dozen American defense contractors.
The Trump administration has not detailed what the agreement entails, beyond sketching out five key areas it says the deal covers: advancing air force and space capabilities; strengthening air and missile defense systems; bolstering maritime and coastal security; modernizing border protection and ground forces; and upgrading information and communications technology.
Two anonymous sources briefed on the matter told Rooters earlier this month that the US and Saudi Arabia have discussed Riyadh’s potential purchase of Lockheed Martin’s F-35 stealth fighter. But it’s unclear how serious any discussions are or if they are progressing to more advanced stages.
The Saudis have long had their eye on the F-35, hoping to become the second country in the Middle East, after Israel, to acquire the world’s most advanced aircraft.
In 2017, Saudi Arabia signaled interest in purchasing the F-35 fighter jet following what was described as a $110 billion arms agreement with the US earlier that same year.
That arms agreement took the form of commitments rather than actual defense deals, and it’s unclear if the Saudis purchased more than a fraction of that promised $110 billion. What is clear is that while Riyadh got its hands on plenty of munitions, it was ultimately unable to purchase any F-35 fighter jets.
JET-SETTERS
Despite repeated interest from regional powers, the US has consistently blocked the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries in order to preserve Israel’s QME.
"The US is committed to Israel’s QME and has taken this into account in its arms sales to the region," Zain Hussain, a researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s arms transfers program, told The Times of Israel. "Exporting F-35s to other states in the region would present a significant shift in that policy."
Israel today is the only country in the Middle East with F-35 fighter jets in its arsenal, currently operating 45 of the advanced aircraft with additional units on order.
"The export of the F-35 to another state in the region would potentially mean that state acquiring stealth, data fusion, and deep-strike capabilities widely considered superior to other aircraft currently operated in the region," Hussain said.
At the same time, he emphasized that Israel still holds a significant operational advantage: "Israel remains the most experienced operator of the F-35 in the region and has been allowed to modify the aircraft to meet its specific needs."
Indeed, Israel has uniquely customized its fleet of F-35s, rebranding the stealth fighter jet as the "Adir," Hebrew for "mighty." Through close cooperation with Lockheed Martin, Israeli defense firms have integrated proprietary technologies into the aircraft — including advanced electronic warfare systems, enhanced command and control capabilities and locally developed weapons systems.
Washington’s commitment to ensuring Israel maintains a qualitative edge in military capability dates back to Lyndon B. Johnson’s presidency. In 2008, it was formally codified into a law requiring that Jerusalem’s position be considered before any weapons sales to the region.
The doctrine is rooted in Israel’s position as a democratic ally surrounded by often-hostile neighbors. Given its geographic and demographic disadvantages, Israel cannot rely on quantity in warfare and instead depends on technological and tactical superiority.
Over the decades, US arms sales to Arab states have repeatedly put Israel’s QME to the test. At times, they have only gone through thanks to US assurances or complementary arms sales to Israel.
In 1981, Jerusalem strongly objected to Washington’s decision to sell AWACS surveillance planes and advanced F-15 enhancement packages to Saudi Arabia, fearing it would erode Israel’s technological superiority. Despite fierce opposition, Congress narrowly approved the deal, with then-president Ronald Reagan offering Israel a set of reassurances, including an additional $600 million in military aid and 15 new F-15s.
More recently, the Trump administration in 2020 agreed to sell 50 F-35s to the UAE following Abu Dhabi’s agreement to normalize relations with Israel, though officials denied any linkage between the two.
The potential F-35 sales raised red flags in Israel, but Jerusalem eventually said it would not oppose the deal, after the US agreed to sign a formal agreement reaffirming Washington’s legally enshrined commitment to maintaining Israel’s regional military advantage.
In the end, the sale was torpedoed by the UAE rather than the QME. In 2021, the Emirates suspended talks with the Biden administration on buying the planes due to various disagreements over the sale, including their price tag, and in 2024, officials in Abu Dhabi said they did not plan to revive the deal.
TRUMP AND THE SAUDIS
Ahead of Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, some believed that arms sales would similarly be used as part of a package that would see Riyadh normalize relations with Israel, which would have likely played a role in overcoming any QME-related hurdles.
Instead, Israel was left off to the side as Trump and the Saudis heaped lavish indulgences and effusive praise on each other.
During his visit, Trump addressed the Saudi-US Investment Forum, hailing the "close partnership" between Washington and Riyadh and praising Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
...Crown Prince and modernizer of Saudi Arabia as of 2016. The Turks hate him, so he must be all right, despite the occasional brutal murder of Qatar-owned journalists...
for the kingdom’s sweeping transformation since Trump’s last visit as president.
"Exactly eight years ago this month I stood in this very room and looked forward to a future in which the nations of this region would drive [out] the forces of terrorism and extremism... and take your place among the proudest, most prosperous, most successful nations anywhere in the world as leaders of a modern and rising Middle East," Trump said.
"Critics doubted that it was possible," he added, "but over the past eight years, Saudi Arabia has proved the critics totally wrong," citing the kingdom’s emergence as a global business leader.
In tandem with its ambitions to become a business hub, Saudi Arabia has dramatically ramped up its military spending, signaling its intent to play a more assertive role on the regional and global stage.
According to a February statement by Ahmad al-Ohali, governor of the Saudi General Authority for Military Industries, the kingdom increased its defense budget from $75.8 billion in 2024 to $78 billion in 2025. al-Ohali also noted a consistent 4.5 percent annual growth in defense spending since 1960, placing Saudi Arabia as the fifth-largest military spender in the world, and the largest in the Arab world.
NO FAIRY GODMOTHER
After his stop in Riyadh, Trump continued to Qatar
...an emirate on the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It sits on some really productive gas and oil deposits, which produces the highest per capita income in the world. They piss it all away on religion, financing the Moslem Brotherhood and several al-Qaeda affiliates. Home of nutbag holy manYusuf al-Qaradawi...
and the UAE, notably skipping over Israel — a move that raised concern in Jerusalem over potential shifts in regional priorities and the optics of Israel being sidelined during a major US diplomatic tour.
"This week there was a party in the Middle East — a grand ball full of colorful costumes, money and gold changing hands — and we found ourselves playing the role of Cinderella before the transformation," columnist Sima Kadmon wrote in Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth daily.
"The fairy godmother we thought we had, flew off to Saudi Arabia and Qatar."
The Trump administration has made several moves lately that have left some wondering whether Washington is still committed to taking Israel’s position into account in cases where it is not required by law.
These include nuclear talks with Iran, a ceasefire with Yemen
...an area of the Arabian Peninsula sometimes mistaken for a country. It is populated by more antagonistic tribes and factions than you can keep track of...
’s Iran's Houthi sock puppets
...a Zaidi Shia insurgent group operating in Yemen. They have also been referred to as the Believing Youth . Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi is said to be the spiritual leader of the group and most of the military leaders are his relatives. The legitimate Yemeni government has accused the them of having ties to the Iranian government. Honest they did. The group has managed to gain control over all of Saada Governorate and parts of Amran, Al Jawf and Hajjah Governorates. Its slogan is God is Great, Death to America™, Death to Israel, a curse on the Jews They like shooting off... ummm... missiles that they would have us believe they make at home in their basements. On the plus side, they did murder Ali Abdullah Saleh, which was the only way the country was ever going to be rid of him...
rebels that allows them to continue firing ballistic missiles at the Jewish state and a deal with Hamas
..not a terrorist organization, even though it kidnaps people, holds hostages, and tries to negotiate by executing them,...
to free Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander that bypassed Jerusalem.
The agreement to arm the Saudis at record numbers comes amid growing frustration from Trump over Israel’s prolonged war in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response ...
— a conflict he reportedly sees as complicating his efforts to broker a landmark regional deal.
Trump has made no secret of his ambition to secure Saudi-Israeli normalization as a cornerstone achievement of his second term. But Riyadh has made it clear that any such agreement is contingent on a ceasefire in Gaza and tangible progress toward Paleostinian statehood.
Although Saudi Arabia was not among the original signatories of the 2020 Abraham Accords, it has cautiously endorsed the initiative from the sidelines. Still, the kingdom has repeatedly stressed that its participation depends on movement toward a two-state solution — a goal that now appears increasingly remote amid the ongoing war.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reaffirmed that Trump "wants to see this conflict in the region end," but the administration has firmly denied reports that it is threatening to "abandon" Israel over its Gaza campaign.
Dr. H. A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London, told The Times of Israel that Trump’s visit "was primarily about the [Gulf Cooperation Council], not about the appalling situation in Gaza, and applying ’America First’ transactionalism to foreign policy in [the Middle East and North Africa] more generally."
He added that while "there is frustration in DC with Tel Aviv’s conduct in Gaza... DC is still very much supportive of Tel Aviv." 
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Posted by trailing wife 2025-05-29 00:00||
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Posted by Grom the Affective 2025-05-29 01:28||
2025-05-29 01:28||
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