| This seems unwise to me, given what happened with the first one that President Obama negotiated, but perhaps this is President Trump giving Iran a last chance before the bombs fall. |
[IsraelTimes] Agreement being negotiated ‘preserves the core’ of 2015 deal, sources say; may impose constraints on uranium enrichment but not dismantle nuclear facilities or address Iran’s ballistic missiles
US President Donald Trump
...The Hero of Butler, Pennsylvania...
blindsided Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with his decision to immediately open negotiations with Iran
Continued from Page 2
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
last month. Now, the talks hinge on winning key concessions that would prevent the Islamic Theocratic Republic from ever developing a nuclear bomb, eight sources said.
The pivot to negotiations with Iran in April was a shock for Netanyahu, who had flown to Washington seeking Trump’s backing for military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and learned less than 24 hours before a joint White House press event that US talks with Iran were starting within days, four sources familiar with the matter told Rooters.
Tehran’s leadership remains deeply concerned that Netanyahu may launch a strike, deal or no deal, a senior Iranian security official said. Iran routinely calls for Israel’s destruction and Jerusalem views an Iranian nuclear weapon as an existential threat.
However,
if you can't say something nice about a person some juicy gossip will go well...
in just three weeks, the US and Iran have held three rounds of talks aimed at preventing Tehran from building a nuclear weapon in return for sanctions relief. A fourth round is expected to take place in Rome soon.
Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon, but it has ramped up its enrichment of uranium to 60 percent purity, which has no peaceful application, and has obstructed international inspectors from checking its nuclear facilities.
For this story, Rooters spoke to officials and diplomats from all sides of the negotiations who disclosed previously unreported details under discussion. All requested anonymity to speak about delicate ongoing conversations.
An initial framework under discussion preserves the core of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was scrapped by Trump in 2018 during his first term, eight sources said.
A deal may not look radically different from the former pact, which he called the worst in history, but would extend duration to 25 years, tighten verification, and expand so-called sunset clauses that pause but do not completely dismantle aspects of Iran’s nuclear program, all the sources said.
Under the terms being discussed, Iran would limit stockpile size and centrifuge types, and dilute, export or seal its 60 percent uranium stock under unprecedented ineffective International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) scrutiny, all in exchange for substantial sanctions relief, all the sources said.
The US State Department, Iran’s foreign ministry and Netanyahu’s office did not respond to requests for comment.
Dennis Ross, a former negotiator under both Republicans and Democrats
 ...every time you hear the phrase white people , white supremacy, white anything but paint, you're listening to a Democrat. Ask him/her/it to reimagine something for you; they do that a lot, though not well. They can hear a dog whistle a mile or two away. They invented the spoils system and Tammany Hall, and inspired the addition of the word (Thomas) Nasty to the English language. They want to stop continental drift and repeal the law of unintended side effects...
, said that any new agreement must go further than the JCPOA by imposing a permanent, structural change in Tehran’s nuclear capabilities by shrinking its infrastructure to the point where developing a bomb is no longer a practical option.
"Anything less would leave the threshold threat intact," he told Rooters.
But several red lines are emerging that negotiators must circumvent to reach a deal and avert future military action.
Foremost is the question of Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium, something Washington and Israel say must stop entirely, leaving Iran reliant on imported uranium for Bushehr, its only existing nuclear power plant, located on the Gulf coast.
Netanyahu is demanding "zero enrichment" and a Libya-style deal that dismantles Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Iran says its right to enrich is not negotiable. However,
if you can't say something nice about a person some juicy gossip will go well...
the size of the uranium stockpile, shipping stocks out of the country, and the number of centrifuges are under discussion, three Iranian officials said.
Under proposals discussed in rounds of talks in April, Iran would cap enrichment at 3.67%, in line with the JCPOA, all the sources said, including three Iranian officials. Tehran is also open to granting the IAEA expanded access to its nuclear sites, the Iranian sources said.
The proposals do not seek to dismantle Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure entirely as Israel and some US officials want, but aim to lock in permanent constraints on uranium enrichment that deter any breakout, the sources said.
US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff appeared to acknowledge that position in comments last week, but later said Iran must "stop and eliminate" enrichment.
One way out could be for Iran to accept long breaks to the enrichment program, through an extension of sunset clauses, said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow and the founding director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
"The Iranians, if they were smart, they would settle for much longer sunset clauses going into the future," Vatanka said, emphasizing the importance of each side being able to claim victory in the talks.
Another possible compromise could involve Iran retaining minimal enrichment, with 5,000 centrifuges, while importing the rest of the enriched uranium, possibly from Russia, one of the three Iranian sources, a security bigshot, told Rooters.
In return for limits on enrichment, Tehran has demanded watertight guarantees that Trump would not again ditch a nuclear pact, the three Iranian officials said.
Among the red lines mandated by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
...the very aged actual dictator of Iran, successor to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini...>
is reducing the amount of enriched uranium it stores to below the level agreed in the 2015 deal, the three sources said. Iran has been able to "significantly" increase the amount of uranium it can enrich to 60% purity, the IAEA said in December.
The JCPOA only permitted Iran to accumulate enriched uranium produced by its first-generation IR-1 centrifuges, but now Iran is using far more advanced models banned under the 2015 deal.
Iran claims that its nuclear program is intended only for peaceful purposes, but the country has enriched uranium to levels only necessary for developing atomic bombs.
A senior regional source close to Tehran said the current debate over Iran’s uranium stockpiles centers on whether Iran "will keep a portion of it, diluted, inside the country while sending another portion abroad, possibly to Russia."
According to the source, Iran has even floated the idea of selling enriched uranium to the United States.
Iran currently operates around 15,000 centrifuges. Under the JCPOA, Iran was allowed to operate around 6,000.
"Essentially, the negotiations are shaping into a ’JCPOA 2’ with some additions that would allow Trump to present it as a victory, while Iran could still keep its right to enrichment," the senior Iranian official said.
Another sticking point relates to Iran’s ballistic missile manufacturing capacity. Washington and Israel say Iran should stop making missiles. Iran counters that it has a right to self-defense. One Iranian official previously told Rooters it would not go beyond the requirements of the 2015 deal, offering only to avoid building missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads as a "gesture of goodwill."
Washington is pressing to include the ballistic missile program in the talks, but Tehran "continues to reject any discussion," one regional security official said. "The problem," he added, "is that without addressing the missile issue, Trump cannot claim that the new deal goes beyond the JCPOA."
Former negotiator Ross points out the contradiction: Trump abandoned the JCPOA for being too weak, and as a result, now faces a reality where Tehran stands at the threshold of nuclear weapons capability.
"Accepting a deal that mirrors or softens the original would be politically indefensible," he said, suggesting a deal must slash centrifuges from 20,000 to 1,000, ship out all enriched stockpiles, and impose intrusive, penalty-backed inspections.
STRIKE RISK
Vatanka, the analyst, likened Iran’s current predicament to the 1988 decision by the regime’s founder, Ruhollah Khomeini, to accept a ceasefire with Iraq — a moment he famously likened to drinking "the bitter chalice of poison."
"It’s about survival," Vatanka said. "It’s not capitulation."
Diplomats say Netanyahu sees a rare opening: Last year’s military campaigns crippled Iran’s air defenses and decimated Hezbollah’s missile arsenal, which was Tehran’s primary deterrent.
"This is a historic window for Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear sites," an official in the Middle East said. The United States, he said, opposes such a move for several reasons, chief among them the concerns of Gulf Arab states, which Washington cannot ignore given its deep strategic and economic ties in the region.
"Still, it must weigh Israel’s security calculations," he said. "So while the US may not take part directly, it could offer indirect support. It would be a difficult operation for Israel, but not an impossible one."
The US military has surged assets in recent weeks to reinforce the Middle East. The Pentagon has deployed six B-2 bombers to the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia — a location used in the past to support its military operations in the Middle East.
Additionally, the US currently has two aircraft carriers in the region and has moved in air defense systems from Asia.
Alan Eyre, a former US diplomat and Farsi-speaking Middle East expert, warned that a strike may slow Iran’s program, but won’t eliminate it. "You cannot bomb know-how," he said. "The knowledge is there. Iran has mastered uranium enrichment."
How Trump thwarted Netanyahu’s plans to confront a would-be nuclear Iran
[IsraelTimes] As US pursues diplomacy with Tehran, Israel’s prime minister finds himself sidelined, unable to criticize president and pinning his hopes on talks collapsing. 
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