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2025-02-27 Home Front: Politix
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Trump says he's terminating Chevron's Venezuela oil agreement
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[FoxNews] Trump says Venezuela has failed to take in violent illegal immigrants from the US
President Donald Trump says he is reversing a Biden-era grant allowing Chevron to operate within Venezuela on Wednesday.
Trump detailed the decision in a lengthy post on Truth Social, stating that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro had not upheld his end of the bargain.
"We are hereby reversing the concessions that Crooked Joe Biden gave to Nicolás Maduro, of Venezuela, on the oil transaction agreement, dated November 26, 2022, and also having to do with Electoral conditions within Venezuela, which have not been met by the Maduro regime," Trump wrote.
"Additionally, the regime has not been transporting the violent criminals that they sent into our Country (the Good Ole’ U.S.A.) back to Venezuela at the rapid pace that they had agreed to," he added.
| U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio later said on X that he will provide foreign policy guidance to terminate all Biden-era oil and gas licenses "that have shamefully bankrolled the illegitimate Maduro regime." |
"I am therefore ordering that the ineffective and unmet Biden "Concession Agreement" be terminated as of the March 1st option to renew. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" Trump continued.
Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez described the decision as "inexplicable" in a statement on Telegram, arguing it was a "failed decision."
"The U.S. government has made a damaging and inexplicable decision by announcing sanctions against the U.S. company Chevron," Rodriguez said.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio later said on X that he will provide foreign policy guidance to terminate all Biden-era oil and gas licenses "that have shamefully bankrolled the illegitimate Maduro regime."
Playing hardball. Chevron exports about 240,000 barrels per day of crude from its Venezuela operations, over a quarter of the country's entire oil output.
… to impose on your counter party to persuade them to take your preferred course of action. The bigger the benefit you can offer or cost you can impose the bigger the leverage you have over your counter party. Why do small states want nuclear weapons? It gives small states massive leverage and massive relative to their size.
Trump is clearly obsessed with obtaining leverage when entering into a negotiation (I am using the word here negotiation broadly so it need not be formal contract negotiation for instance). Take a recent example, recent reports have that Trump was pushing Mexico to impose tariffs on Chinese goods threatening significant tariffs on Mexico if they did not cooperate. The threat of losing the American market is much larger than the threat of never having the Chinese market for Mexico. Trump has leverage over Mexico. This type of leverage is clearly prominent in how Trump approaches interactions.
However, it isn't enough to build leverage capabilities but one must be able and willing to exercise leverage. Just having leverage isn't enough if you aren't willing to use it. I think every country now takes Trump pretty seriously when he threatens to do X because he has shown he has the willingness to execute such threats of conferring benefits or imposing costs. However, this leads to a secondary question for both Trump and the world leaders.
For those being threatened, they must figure try to figure out how serious he is and what will satisfy him in a negotiation. In other words, what do they have to do to not see the threat executed. Trump has a slightly different and trickier game, he needs to make sure his threats do not become predictable (something we see he is aware of rhetorically but that's another thread) other wise it becomes like a tell at a poker game. Put another way, some times it needs to be a small threat that he places high value on and executes rapidly if not addressed and in other cases it needs to be a large threat that he backs down from because he had no significant intent to follow through. They key point for Trump is to not become predictable to counter parties but rather they take all threats with similar levels of seriousness.
To take an example, I personally deem Trump's threat of leaving NATO and pulling US troops out of Europe as a large threat with low probability of execution that he will execute. However, look at how it is received. European leaders are taking it very seriously and are rapidly moving on plans to demonstrate their seriousness to Trump to address defense short comings and back Ukraine. European leaders are not sure whether this is a high probability or low probability threat because his negotiation threats are not predictable.
One aspect of this that people continually forget is that Trump is less predictable than other world leaders or groups. Take an example. European countries and the EU as an institution will predictably meet, form a committee charged with forming a committee to write a white paper to make recommendations that member states will ignore that the EU will then form another committee to investigate why. Totally predictable. They do not use leverage and they are predictable.
Trump is the exact opposite: he will use leverage and is not predictable in specifically how. Keep this unpredictability in mind when someone tells you they know exactly what he is going to do
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Posted by Skidmark 2025-02-27 09:13||
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File under: Commies
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Posted by Skidmark 2025-02-27 09:19||
2025-02-27 09:19||
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Posted by Skidmark 2025-02-27 09:20||
2025-02-27 09:20||
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Posted by swksvolFF 2025-02-27 12:12||
2025-02-27 12:12||
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Posted by Super Hose 2025-02-27 18:42||
2025-02-27 18:42||
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