Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kamran Gasanov
[REGNUM] Recep Tayyip Erdogan shelters Volodymyr Zelensky from the rain in front of the Beshtepe presidential palace - this shot most vividly illustrates the trip of the head of the Kiev regime to Turkey on the day when Sergey Lavrov, Yuriy Ushakov, Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff decided the fate of Ukraine in Riyadh, and helpless Europe was looking for its opportunities at the summit in Paris.
Three questions are of primary interest in the Ukrainian leader’s visit to Ankara: who initiated the meeting; why did it take place on February 18; why in Turkey?
Turkish media reports that Zelensky arrived at Erdogan's invitation. But this does not rule out bilateral interest in this rendezvous. For Turkey, the topic of Ukraine has become one of the key ones since the start of the NWO. In his New Year's address, Erdogan said that the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict remains a priority for him.
| The wannabe neo-Ottoman sultan neeeeeeeds to be seen as an important mover and shaker on the international front, which is why he swans around the world, lavishly spending the charity his country was given to keep it from collapsing into long-delayed bankruptcy. |
And this is no coincidence, since many important decisions in this process were made with the mediation of Ankara. These include the famous Istanbul talks in March 2022,
| …which in the end accomplished nothing permanent… |
the "grain deal", numerous prisoner exchanges, as well as the prisoner exchange between the West and Russia last summer.
Vladimir Putin, speaking about peace, often made reference to the Istanbul agreements as the most successful since the start of military actions. At the same time, Turkey's mediation has been called into question for about a year now.
The Russian president, listing the mediators (Brazil, India, China), does not mention Ankara. The president's press secretary Dmitry Peskov once said directly that "Turkey is not a mediator."
And, apparently, the reason for the loss of such a role is connected with the pro-Western tilt of Erdogan's new cabinet. In order to overcome the lira crisis, the economic bloc of the Turkish government began to take steps to get closer to the US and the EU - which, by the way, Putin drew attention to.
The date of February 18th made the topic of the country's loss of its special role on the shores of the Bosphorus even more relevant. Erdogan had high hopes for Donald Trump, who had promised to resolve the Ukrainian conflict even before winning the election. Apparently, the Turks hoped that the White House chief would look to them as mediators. Especially since Trump praised Erdogan, and Turkey demonstrated more than anyone else its readiness to reconcile the conflicting parties.
But no. Like a cold shower, the news poured on Erdogan's head that the first personal meeting of representatives of the Russian and American authorities would take place in Saudi Arabia.
What to do in this situation? Türkiye could not tolerate such humiliation.
Erdogan decides to take a small revenge. As compensation, he invites Zelensky. On the one hand, it seems to be not the same scale. There, in Riyadh, are the USA and Russia, and here is some president of a losing Ukraine, and, moreover, according to both Trump and Putin, an illegitimate one. But, nevertheless, at least it is something.
War is at least a bilateral thing, and therefore, even if we approach it purely formally, peace must be signed in the presence and with the participation of Ukraine. By inviting Zelensky, Erdogan wants to show that he is “in” and has influence on one of the parties to the conflict. And, therefore, on its settlement.
Zelensky had no less motivation to go to some important country on February 18. If he had been invited to the meeting between Lavrov and Rubio, he would certainly have been there, even if he says he did not plan to go there. After all, Zelensky is offended by the fact that the fate of Ukraine is being decided behind his back by the United States and Russia.
The most obvious alternative is Europe: Emmanuel Macron is holding a second summit in a row in Paris with the participation of European leaders. However, does it make sense for Zelensky to come to Europe now, if there is complete discord there on sending troops to Ukraine? And even countries ready for this, such as Great Britain, do not allow their presence without the support of the United States? Therefore, for Zelensky, the only option was Erdogan.
The meeting in Ankara was in many ways a kind of response from Zelensky and Erdogan to Russia, the US and Europe. Ukraine secured the support of the second army in NATO, and Erdogan showed Trump and Europe that he is now much closer to Zelensky than they are.
But is there any practical result in this summit? This is a subject for discussion.
Donald Trump himself and through his team members made it clear that a return to the borders of 2014 and even 2022 is impossible, and Ukraine should not be in NATO. Europe supports the integrity of Ukraine, but cannot do anything without the consent of the United States. But Erdogan, in fact speaking out against the United States and Russia, tells Zelensky: “Turkey has always been very principled on the issue of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.”
Such words, especially today, are pleasing to Zelensky's ear, but does Erdogan really mean it? Or is it just a stock phrase aimed at strengthening his negotiating position as "Ukraine's patron"?
There is a persistent feeling that it is more likely the latter. After all, just a few months ago, the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry, Hakan Fidan, spoke about freezing the conflict, which de facto means that it is impossible to return the territories to Ukraine.
It was important for Erdogan to demonstrate that he would not accept Saudi Arabia as the mediator without a fight. “Our country will be the ideal venue for negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and America in the course of our active diplomacy over the past three years,” he said, promising “comprehensive support” for the talks.
In theory, the Turkish leader can still claim to be a mediator. He has good relations with Trump so far, and the Gaza issue has not been able to spoil them, thanks to the peace deal. Erdogan has not officially quarreled with Putin either, and Turkey became a BRICS partner country in the fall. And Zelensky is much closer to Ankara than to Riyadh.
Former diplomat Gulru Gezer is also optimistic about Ankara's chances : "Turkey maintains ties with both Ukraine and Russia - it has not broken off relations with either side and positions itself as a neutral mediator. This makes it a unique country that can facilitate negotiations."
However, the final word on this issue does not belong to Ukraine, which sympathizes with Turkey, but to the United States and Russia. Erdogan’s words about territorial integrity certainly do not increase his chances of becoming the organizer of the meeting between Putin and Trump.
In addition to the topic of mediation, the Turkish army could become another lever of influence on the Ukrainian settlement process that has begun.
After the meeting in Ankara, the aHaber TV channel gave the following headline: “Did Zelensky ask Erdogan for help?”
And the question is not really out of nowhere. During the negotiations with his Turkish counterpart, the Ukrainian president was concerned about who would ensure Ukraine's security after the peace deal. In what form would this be implemented?
Zelensky complained to Erdogan that Ukraine "does not hear such support from the EU." He said that Europe does not support Ukraine's membership in NATO. And for Ukraine's security, strong Ukrainian Armed Forces and the deployment of foreign troops are needed. "We also talked about this with Mr. Erdogan," Zelensky hinted at a discussion of the Turkish presence.
The question of the appearance of NATO forces along the demarcation line or beyond it is the main obstacle in the peace process that has begun. Russia is categorically against it, Trump does not object to sending Europeans to Ukraine, but they are afraid to go it alone.
Can Türkiye play any role here?
Ankara is unlikely to object to the presence of its peacekeepers. However, in the absence of consent from Russia and the US, there is a risk of not only spoiling relations with an important energy partner in Moscow, but also disrupting the peace process launched by Trump, thereby spoiling relations with the US.
Turkey, despite its determination, military and geopolitical advantages, which have increased since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, still objectively has more chances to have influence in Ukraine in the field of diplomacy.
Although Trump is conducting a dialogue about resolving the conflict behind the backs of Europe and Ukraine, he recently admitted that the Ukrainians will still be involved in the process. It was not for nothing that his special envoy Keith Kellogg arrived in Kyiv the day after the meeting in Riyadh.
If the US does introduce Zelensky into the peace process, of course, having first instructed him on adequate demands, then Türkiye could also enter the settlement on his shoulders.
In Ankara, Zelensky said: "If these negotiations are honest and Ukraine, America and Europe are at this table, then these guarantees will be developed with the participation of all these countries. Of course, Turkey is among these countries."
Despite Erdogan’s high ambitions, his fairly serious ties to the Kremlin and the White House, and the “critical summit” (as Turkish media called the meeting with Zelensky), there are not many chances for Turkish mediation on Ukraine.
The ideal moment for Turkey was March 2022, but then everything was ruined by Erdogan’s strategic partner, Great Britain, led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
For now, Türkiye can content itself with merely being an active observer and hoping that its proposals will be appreciated in Washington and Moscow. Influence on Zelensky, who is no longer taken seriously either in the Kremlin or in the Oval Office, is not enough.
The Nefes newspaper notes with disappointment that “Turkey, which until now has played a prominent role in mediating between Ukraine and Russia, has now been pushed into the background by the United States.”
However, Erdogan is an experienced fighter, and he will not give up the palm to his brothers in faith without a fight.
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