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2025-01-17 Africa North
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'We Will Have to Fight.' Will Russia Seize the Chance to Get Even with the West?
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Victor Vasiliev
 [REGNUM] One of the main newsmakers of the beginning of 2025 in Africa has become the Republic of Chad. Its young leader Mahamat Deby, who visited Moscow a year ago, gives tough ultimatums to the French military, becomes the target of an armed attack and wins the elections.
On January 8, shots rang out near the presidential palace in N'Djamena, the capital of Chad. Rumors began to circulate about an attempted coup and an attack by Boko Haram terrorists. But everything turned out well.
And already on January 12, Mahamat Deby's Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS) won 124 of the 188 seats in the National Assembly of Chad following the parliamentary elections. The vote, which also included municipal and regional elections, was the first in Chad in more than a decade. The previous parliamentary elections were held in the country in 2011.
It's funny that since 2015, the European Union has allocated considerable funds for holding parliamentary elections, or rather, for equipping the work of the electoral commission, conducting the population census and much more. Including France.
And now, finally, the elections took place. But without any real opposition, largely with French money - under the noise of anti-French statements and against the backdrop of the humiliating withdrawal of French troops from Chad. Africa knows how to give what is deserved.
REVENGE ON MACRON
| Macron, like Biden, has not been interested in competence, but in saying the fashionable thing. There are consequences for that. |
Chadian President Mahamat Déby is not just positioning himself as the successor to the “great cause” of his father, Idriss Déby, who was killed by terrorists in 2021. Déby is so ambitious that he has already surpassed his father in some ways. In particular, he received the highest military rank of marshal at the age of 40.
While Deby Sr. received and held his marshal title for 31 years largely thanks to the French military presence in the region, Deby Jr. asked the French to “get out” soon after his legitimization following last year’s presidential elections.
Deby Jr. wrote an autobiography, not devoid of literary talent, “From Bedouin to President,” and in April 2024 he presented it to Vladimir Putin, whom he had visited in Moscow earlier that year. And this alone can be considered, if not a revolution, then a real rebellion against the French. Albeit symbolic: the son of a bloody pro-French dictator came to his senses and moved toward rapprochement with Russia, which in the case of Africa means the path to real sovereignty.
The decision to withdraw French armed forces from Chad by January 31, 2025 was also a symbolic humiliation for Paris. The loss of positions in Africa makes French President Emmanuel Macron noticeably nervous.
He recently said that African countries are ungrateful to France for its help in the fight against jihadism. He also explained that France did the right thing by deploying its troops in the Sahel region, but the region did not even say "thank you." And in general, there would be no talk of any sovereignty of the Sahel states today if it were not for France and its armed intervention against jihadists.
The statements have sparked a wave of anger across Africa.
Chad's president said Macron's comments were disrespectful to Africa. Deby accused Macron of being "stuck in the colonial era" and reiterated that France had until the end of January to withdraw its troops.
In his New Year's address to the nation, Mahamat Deby outlined the possible consequences of the withdrawal of French troops.
" I know that we will have to fight," he said. "I am fully aware of the security, economic, diplomatic and media implications of this historic decision. We do not rule out that our compatriots will, unfortunately, be used to destabilise our country. But, firmly convinced that this decision is a response to the common and legitimate aspirations of the people of Chad, I have accepted it and I take full responsibility for it."
Deby knew what he was warning citizens about. Already on the evening of January 8, his presidential palace was subjected to an intense attack by unknown persons, the circumstances of which still raise questions.
ISLAMIC FACTOR
It is technically unlikely that the French will be able to withdraw their troops in the two weeks remaining until the end of January. Chad has long served as the largest base for France's military presence in the Sahel region and throughout Central Africa.
According to rumors, Mahmat Deby was even ready to "concede" to the French and give them another month to pack up, but on the condition that they would definitely leave the territory of sovereign Chad by February 28. On February 28, the holy month of Ramadan begins for Muslims in the country.
And the symbolism here has a double bottom. Until relatively recently, Chad was a predominantly Christian country. But the French placed their bets on the more passionate and, as it seemed to them, more obedient northern Muslim peoples - in defiance of the representative of the Christian south of the country, the first president of independent Chad, François Tombalbaye, who allowed himself a policy that was too independent from Paris.
| And of course the Moslems are ever so much more romantic than everyday, boring, bourgeoise Christians of any skin tone. How were the French authorities to resist such a charming idea? |
Already in 2014, the French tried to use semi-Islamist and semi-gangster formations to expel François Bozizé, who had been playing at independence, in the neighboring Central African Republic and unleashed a civil war there. They tried to use these same gangs repeatedly against the Wagner Group when they began to restore order in the CAR at the end of 2017.
And now the Islamic factor is turned against the French themselves.
Mahamat Deby is rumored to be an extremely vindictive person. His attitude toward former colonizers is due to the fact that it was Macron who questioned the legitimacy of his rise to power. One of his informal conditions for supporting Chad and the current government after the death of Idriss Deby was the renunciation of the presidential ambitions of Deby Jr.
However, this development of events called into question the future of the entire "Debi clan" and the dominant Zaghawa ethnic group.
The contender for power after the dictator's death was his beloved wife, the daughter of the Chadian ambassador to the United States, a representative of the Arab Tunjur tribe, Hinda Itno, who became a successful conductor of Washington's influence and, at the same time, an effective negotiator with international institutions in favor of her husband.
Under the threat of this internal coup, the entire numerous "Deby clan" united and nominated the most legitimate leader - Deby's eldest son Mahamat. He came to power largely unexpectedly for himself and on the wave of fateful events. The fact is that, legally, power in Chad after the death of the leader should have passed to the head of parliament, but not to the former commander of the main department of the security service of state institutions, a major general of the army and the son of the deceased president.
The political model of Chad is extremely fragile in its foundations. To understand: the East Saharan ethnic group Zaghawa, having a 1% share in the total population of the country, has concentrated 99% of power and resources in its hands. The ruling "Déby clan" belongs to it, all officers of the Chadian army and special services. A classic example of ethnocracy, formalized as a political dictatorship.
In essence, the political and power center in Chad has been constantly shifting vertically since its independence from the predominantly Christian and densely populated agricultural South to the sparsely populated Muslim pastoral North. This is the main geographic axis, the historical pattern and, frankly speaking, the tragedy of Chad's political system.
Given the limited resources (and Chad remains one of the poorest countries on the Black Continent), this state of affairs cannot but cause discontent. And there have always been those who take advantage of this discontent.
But the authorities are usually challenged by the same representatives of the more militant northern and northeastern nomadic peoples. For example, the most implacable opponent of Idriss Deby's rule, the rebel Front for Change and Accord (Front pour l'Alternance et la Concorde au Tchad, FACT), at whose hands Deby died three years ago, consists mainly of the Goran ethnic group. This Muslim ethnic group from the border with Libya has been the main competitor to the privileged position of the Zaghawa for many years.
That is why, despite the apparent stability of the regime, its durability is questionable. And young Deby, to his credit, is well aware of this. This explains his attempts to use the pan-African agenda and play on the patriotic feelings of young Chadians. This is how he finds additional support.
No matter how formal the recent presidential and parliamentary elections were for Chad, the current authorities are still trying to turn the prevailing mood in society to their advantage.
And they are, to put it mildly, anti-French. But it is not only President Deby who would like to take advantage of this.
THE FAILURE OF THE AMERICANS
The only serious political opponent of Mahamat Deby in the recent presidential elections was the leader of the political party "Transformers" Sukse Masra. And it is no coincidence that he focused on the socialist and pan-African agenda, appealing to the ideas of justice and patriotism.
Some even note the complete external and ideological similarity between Sukse Masra and the leader of the successful opposition party PASTEF in Senegal, Ousmane Sonko. At the same time, American money and technology stood behind both political projects.
The very fact of the return of oppositionist Masr to N'Djamena directly from New York and his subsequent appointment as Prime Minister of Chad in January of last year meant nothing less than certain behind-the-scenes agreements between the "Deby clan" and the Americans.
The Americans have been in Chad for a long time. At the same time, their interests here differ significantly from the French. The US quite openly supports the opposition here. During the presidential campaign itself, already in April-May of last year, Western English-language media did not hide their sympathies specifically for Masra "in defiance" of the French.
But the latter, apart from populism, did not have any decisive team, so his political ambitions failed. But the Americans' hope to realize their own influence at the expense of their yesterday's ally in Paris also failed.
It was the American military contingent that was the first to be expelled from Chad, back in April of last year. The fate of the American military in Chad was decided at the same time as the American military contingent in Niger (which literally replaced the "Africa Corps" of the Russian Defense Ministry).
The phenomenal nature of the situation is that, despite the apparent coordination of the actions of the authorities of Chad and Niger and the obvious benefit for Russia, the reasons and circumstances for the expulsion of the Americans are completely different. In the case of Niger, the Americans were counting on remaining in the region until the very end and were clearly implementing their own strategy, somewhere even pushing their "strategic partners", the French, in the back.
This had its risks and, judging by the fact that a year ago there was a significant correction of the American strategy of presence in the region (the bet on coastal locations), it can be assumed that the Americans allowed for the scenario of complete failure and calculated alternative options. And they were not at all embarrassed by either the material or strategic losses associated with leaving Niger.
In the case of Chad, the demands of local military authorities for the withdrawal of the task force of US military advisers and special forces (100 people in number) came as a complete surprise and a harsh reputational slap in the face for Washington.
At an informal level, this decision of the Chadian authorities was supported by the French side. It was a kind of retaliation for the unfriendly actions of American "allies" in a number of locations of traditional presence and influence of Paris.
But, like the Americans in Niger before them, the French are in for a nasty surprise after just over six months. They, too, are forced to abandon the military bases they have occupied since 1976.
The collapse of Françafrique and the withdrawal of French troops from Chad is an event that is not without approval from the Republicans of the Trump administration. This is another illustration of how complicated things are in the African direction in the relations between yesterday's allies.
And all of these are quite positive processes that Russia, among others, can take advantage of.
CHAD AND RUSSIA
The fact is clear, and few can argue with it now. N'Djamena is now moving from a policy of being a conductor of Paris' interests (the "French gendarme" in Africa) in the Sahel and Central Africa to an independent foreign policy.
The place left by France will not remain empty. And if the US could not fill it, then, by breaking relations with Paris, N'Djamena is simultaneously creating a new defense alliance with Ankara.
Turkey and Chad recently signed an agreement that provides for training of Chadian military personnel by Turkish instructors. In addition to the defense agreements, the Turkish armed forces will train the Chadian army. Turkey has been providing military assistance to Chad for several years, including modern training of military personnel and the supply of weapons. The cooperation is aimed at strengthening Chad's defense capabilities and its ability to fight terrorism.
Chad has been and remains an extremely important space for the implementation of geopolitical interests of a number of major powers, if only due to its geographical location.
Chad is a crossroads of multidirectional and complex interests: the Sahel, Central Africa, influence on North Africa (Libya), and North-East Africa (Sudan), etc., etc. Whoever controls Chad has influence over vast areas both in the interior of the African continent and on its outskirts.
Russia is an active player in this area.
Recently, the military authorities of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have turned away from the West in favor of Russian military support. The Central African Republic has been stabilized since 2017 with the help of Russian military instructors. Let us also note the Russian presence in Libya.
All these countries are neighbors of Chad. In this context, the mentioned visit of Deby to Moscow is not just a symbolic story, but also a geopolitical necessity.
It was one thing when Chad was behind the attempted rebellion of the “Coalition of Patriots for Change” in the pro-Russian Central African Republic in 2020. And it was quite another when in the summer of 2023 N’Djamena took a position of demonstrative neutrality against the backdrop of a pro-Russian military coup in neighboring Niger. Although Paris tried to persuade Chad to join ECOWAS in the blockade of Niamey and a military invasion to restore the status quo and free pro-French ex-President Mohamed Bazoum (the latter, by the way, is still in prison).
One cannot help but recall the words of the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov : "I can assure you that our friendship with the Republic of Chad will not affect its relations with France. We never ask anyone to choose their friends, but France has a different approach. In Paris's opinion, either you are with us or you are against us."
Chad was the last stop on the Russian Foreign Minister's African tour last June. But it was perhaps the most significant. During the visit, Lavrov prudently avoided making harsh anti-colonialist statements and focused on economic cooperation with the Central African Republic.
Chad has already significantly diversified its military cooperation over the past 5 years at least: along with France, N'Djamena also focused on the UAE, Turkey and Hungary. Now Russia can join this ranks on equal terms.
There are already obvious advantages for us at the level of foreign policy cooperation.
Immediately after Lavrov's June visit, the head of the Chadian Foreign Ministry made a statement that N'Djamena sees no point in a peace conference on Ukraine without Russia's participation. Now Chad is becoming a neutral and friendly party for the pro-Russian "Confederation of Sahel States." The long-standing tension on the border between Chad and the Central African Republic, when jidahids and armed opposition found refuge in their northern neighbor, is also completely removed.
Was Russia making a deliberate effort in this direction? No. It was simply geopolitical luck and, if you like, a historic chance for Russia to get even with the West.
The current situation, the current tectonic changes in the Sahel, are more a result of a series of accidents and changes within African communities themselves than the result of our own game.
The request for cooperation and an "open door" regime for Moscow comes from African countries - and for us this is somewhat unexpected. As it turns out, we are not particularly capable of the famous "security case", nor do we know how to back it up with anything.
We need to learn, and as quickly as possible. Because we have serious competitors.
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