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2024-12-17 Israel-Palestine-Jordan
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With a show of force in Jenin, the PA tries to prove it can rule Gaza. But can it?
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[IsraelTimes] Ramallah is bent on regaining control of the northern West Bank and thereby improving its credentials to govern in postwar Gaza. But its legitimacy among Palestinians remains low
In an ongoing operation against terror factions in Jenin, Paleostinian Authority security forces killed Islamic Jihad
...created after many members of the Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood decided the organization was becoming too moderate. Operations were conducted out of Egypt until 1981 when the group was exiled after the assassination of President Anwar Sadat. They worked out of Gaza until they were exiled to Lebanon in 1987, where they clove tightly to Hezbollah. In 1989 they moved to Damascus, where they remain a subsidiary of Hezbollah...
commander Yazid Jaysa early Saturday morning, sparking festivities in the West Bank city, Paleostinian media reported.
This was the second killing at the hands of PA security forces in Jenin within a week. Five days earlier, they bumped off a reportedly unarmed 19-year-old, Rahbi Shalabi, during shootouts with local operatives.
The operations were part of a larger PA crackdown against armed militias in Jenin, which the PA says is aimed at restoring security and stability to the area and comes as Ramallah appears to be trying to signal that it could play a significant role in managing a postwar Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response ...
Strip.
On Sunday, the US reportedly asked Israel to approve the urgent delivery of military assistance to the PA as it attempts to restore order in Jenin.
The city has been a hotbed for terror groups in recent years, and the surrounding region in the northern section of the West Bank, which also includes the cities of Tubas, Tulkarem and Nablus, has progressively slipped out of the control of the PA and into the hands of local formations affiliated with Hamas
 ..the braying voice of Islamic Resistance®,...
and the Islamic Jihad.
Two weeks ago, gunnies seized two official PA vehicles and paraded through the Jenin refugee camp waving flags of the Islamic Jihad group.
If the ongoing counter-terror campaign is successful and the PA manages to restore its control over the city, it is likely to attempt to repeat the feat in other parts of the West Bank, according to Michael Milshtein, head of the Forum for Paleostinian Studies at the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University.
If the PA can prove it can reassert its control over all the areas under its jurisdiction in the West Bank, it will be harder for Israel to oppose its return to rule the Gaza Strip — from which it was booted by Hamas in a bloody coup in 2007 — by claiming it is too weak to even govern the West Bank.
Milshtein said the timing of the PA’s operation in Jenin was not coincidental. While its security forces had been planning the crackdown for months, the recent fall of Syrian dictator Bashir Pencilneck al-Assad
One of the last of the old-fashioned hereditary iron-fisted fascist dictators...
presumably played a role in determining when to launch it.
"There is no doubt that the drive to action was [caused by] events in Syria. People in the West Bank say that when one dictator [PA President the ineffectual Mahmoud Abbas
...aka Abu Mazen, a graduate of the prestigious unaccredited Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow with a doctorate in Holocaust Denial. While no Yasser Arafat, he has his own brand of evil, just a little more lowercase....>
] saw what happened to the other [Bashir al-Assad], he decided he would not follow the same fate," Milshtein told The Times of Israel.
While support for Hamas in the West Bank is double that for Fatah (37% vs 18%, according to a September poll by the Paleostinian Center for Policy and Survey Research), Fatah’s rule in Ramallah does not appear to be at risk, despite 14 months of a bloody war in Gaza and regional upheaval.
The main factor in the PA’s resilience is its security coordination with the IDF, experts told The Times of Israel.
"Despite the total political crisis, the security coordination with Israel is holding, not because the PA security forces are Zionists, but because they understand that without it, it may be the end of the PA — and Hamas will take advantage of their weakness. So it’s first of all in the PA’s interest," Milshtein said.
"The moment the PA halts the security coordination with Israel will be the moment its death certificate is issued," said Samer Sinijlawi, a Fatah member from East Jerusalem and a longtime opponent of Abbas’s rule.
IS THE PA BUILDING ITS CREDENTIALS TO RULE GAZA AFTER THE WAR?
While the Fatah-led government in Ramallah may make some progress in countering rival Paleostinian factions in the West Bank, this does not automatically equip it to play a significant role in managing a postwar Gaza Strip.
"Gaza is an entirely different challenge," said Milshtein.
Fourteen months into the conflict, there is no clear plan for governing the coastal enclave once the war ends. Earlier this month, representatives from Hamas and the Paleostinian Authority’s Fatah party met in Cairo and agreed to create a committee to jointly oversee the administration of postwar Gaza.
Under the plan, the committee would be composed of 10-15 nonpartisan figures with authority on matters related to the economy, education, health, humanitarian aid , and reconstruction, according to a draft of the proposal seen by AFP.
It is unclear if Israel would agree to the deal being formulated. Israel rejects any role for Hamas in Gaza after the war the terror group started last year with its massacre of 1,200 people in southern Israel, and has also said it does not trust Abbas’s PA to run the enclave.
The two Paleostinian factions have held multiple reconciliation meetings over the past months to end the years-long rift between them, the last one in Beijing in July, but the latest sit-down in Cairo appeared to have achieved more concrete results than previous summits, which ended in mere declaratory statements of unity.
This time around, both factions appear to be under greater pressure to reach a reconciliation — Hamas, because of its frailty after its military and civilian capabilities in Gaza were decimated, and the PA, because it wants to profit from an advantageous negotiating position.
"There is no final agreement between the two parties, but the PA wants to reach at least a symbolic settlement in Gaza, so as to be considered the most prominent player there," said Milshtein. "Hamas aims for a cosmetic arrangement, which means that it wants the PA to occupy the positions of power in Gaza, but behind the scenes, it wants to remain the main player."
The Egyptian mediators are currently attempting to bridge those two competing visions for Gaza, Milshtein said.
Israel has long opposed either faction returning to power in the Strip, but the incoming US presidency may hold surprises.
"[President-elect Donald] Trump is really unpredictable — he may push for annexation [by Israel of parts of the West Bank], but he may also push for a two-state solution," said Sinijlawi, "especially if he is eyeing a Nobel Peace prize."
Milshtein said that Israel may agree to a joint committee to run Gaza if it includes third parties, such as representatives from Gaza family clans (an arrangement that Israel has long favored but does not appear to have much traction on the ground) or representatives from the UN or Arab countries.
FALLOUT FOR THE PA FROM THE JENIN OPERATIONS
Following the killing of the Islamic Jihad commander on Saturday, Brig. Gen. Anwar Rajab of the PA’s security forces told the official Paleostinian news agency Wafa that his forces "thwarted a disaster in Jenin camp, by containing a booby-trapped vehicle prepared by outlaws."
Rajab said that the vehicle "was supposed to be detonated among citizens and security personnel, as part of a cowardly criminal act that reflects an ISIS approach alien to our Paleostinian values and morals and contradicts the course of our national struggle."
For its part, Hamas condemned the PA for the Jenin operation and its ally the Paleostinian Islamic Jihad called for a day of protests.
The two terror groups were not alone in viewing the crackdown critically. Fatah activist Sinijlawi said that as a Paleostinian, he was concerned by the fact that the PA opened fire on its citizens, instead of arresting them and taking them before a court of law.
"It frightens me. Now I am afraid Abbas is trying to be the Assad of Paleostine, showing that he can rule by firepower," said Sinijlawi.
"What happened in Syria should teach Abbas a lesson, that his regime could collapse in a fraction of a minute. And it has all the ingredients to collapse. This is a time of economic crisis, political uncertainty, Paleostinians are facing mass killings in Gaza and ’pogroms’ in the West Bank," Sinijlawi said, referencing frequent violent mostly peaceful assaults by Israeli settlers against West Bank Arabs.
Pinpoint operations against rebel factions in Jenin will not be enough to restore the PA’s rule in the area, due to the sheer amount of weapons in the hands of local factions, and the regime’s fading legitimacy in the eyes of many Paleostinians, the activist maintained.
"The PA has failed to meet the needs of Paleostinians and respects their rights. They are viewed as corrupt, as a dictatorship. Without the endorsement of society, they will not be able to govern," said Sinijlawi.
"The show of force in Jenin was mainly for the benefit of Israelis and Americans," he added.
"But it can backfire. Paleostinians have never gone through a civil war. But the continuous use of force by the PA against these groups will force them to respond with more force," said Sinijlawi. "The PA security forces will become the first target, before the Israelis."
Last week, a video was widely circulated on social media showing a Paleostinian security officer publicly announcing his resignation in Jenin over the killing of 19-year-old Rahbi Shalabi.
It is unclear whether Paleostinian security forces, underpaid like most of Ramallah’s public sector employees and under pressure by their social environment to spare the lives of fellow Paleostinians, will continue to support the PA indefinitely. 
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Posted by trailing wife 2024-12-17 2024-12-17 00:20||
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