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2024-09-04 The Grand Turk
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Zelensky buries Erdogan's peacemaking attempts
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[REGNUM] It has been almost a month since the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered the Kursk region. Volodymyr Zelensky is raising the stakes in possible peace talks, but the current situation is very damaging to the interests of Turkey, a country that has always tried to be a mediator and organizer of various negotiations and deals.
However, in the last month, there has been a passivity that is unusual for Ankara. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is more busy with the Middle East. And now the events there are no less intense and fast-paced than in Kursk and Pokrovsk.
Expectations of an Iranian response to Israel for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh are still present. Two US carrier groups in the region are on low start. Israel is negotiating, but does not stop fighting not only in Gaza, but also on the West Bank. After the exchange of blows between the IDF and Hezbollah, the risk of opening a Lebanese front is growing.
Turkey is already losing its weight in the region due to the fact that Hamas has been bled dry in Gaza. And Ankara, as a sponsor of the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood (a terrorist organization banned in Russia), bears responsibility for them.
But neither Turkey nor even Iran can seriously respond to Israel. The American military presence in the region and the risk of the outflow of the Western investments that have returned with such difficulty do not allow Erdogan to implement a forceful scenario for the defense of the Palestinian cause.
More broadly, if the “Axis of Resistance” war with Israel/the West escalates, it will be very difficult for Turkey to choose sides. Islamic solidarity demands to act against Israel and the US, but the state of Turkish finances does not allow even thinking about it. Therefore, the Turkish Foreign Ministry maintains constant contact with the State Department.
The Americans never tire of repeating that they are counting on their allies in the region to end the war in Gaza, but Ankara, even with its influence on Hamas, cannot play a peacekeeping role, since Benjamin Netanyahu constantly disrupts the negotiation process.
The same thing is essentially happening in another theater of military operations, where Erdogan has been trying to act as a mediator for two years now.
Even before the Kursk events, Dmitry Peskov said that Erdogan was not a possible mediator. The Kremlin was already hinting that until Zelensky took a compromise position and the West agreed to Russia's conditions, negotiations were unrealistic.
After the Kursk adventure, Turkey's chances of mediation became even smaller.
Previously, Putin still allowed for the possibility of negotiations, but now everything is on hold. And Ankara has nothing to say now. How can Erdogan invite Putin to visit to discuss Ukraine when Kyiv has crossed yet another "red line"? It would be a conversation about nothing, and the Kremlin does not intend to talk to Dolmabahce in vain.
This is an extremely awkward situation for Erdogan. He considers himself a respected politician in the world, whose opinion is listened to in Washington/Brussels, Moscow and Beijing. And here he finds himself out of the picture.
Unable to influence the situation around Kursk, Erdogan and his associates began looking for someone to blame.
Just like two years ago, it was the West again.
On August 29, Turkish Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş recalled on the Habertürk channel that the Istanbul agreements fell through due to Washington's position. "The US is trying to consolidate the European continent due to military actions in Ukraine, wants to involve Russia in serious problems and considers regional turbulence important for the balance of power," he said, adding that in order to end the war, Russia and Ukraine need to "reveal their political intentions."
The following day, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also lost his temper . During a visit to Slovenia, he warned against the use of nuclear weapons over Ukraine. "There is a risk that this war will escalate into a nuclear conflict," Fidan said. He said Turkey was pushing for a swift peaceful resolution to the conflict and pointed out the difficulty in predicting its consequences.
The minister also noted that Erdogan maintains contact with Putin and the Ukrainian president, offering his initiatives.
The fact that the Turkish administration has broken its nearly month-long silence is largely due to the growing risk of a head-on clash between Russia and the West.
On the eve of the speech by Turkish officials, the Russian Foreign Ministry reminded the United States of the inevitability of punishment for hostile actions that encourage Zelensky to commit acts of aggression: F-16s were sent to Ukraine, and on September 1, the Ukrainian Armed Forces sent more than a hundred drones to Russian cities and are waiting for permission to use long-range missiles.
Given these variables, the question arises not only about the reality of Turkish mediation, but also about Turkey's strategic choice. And here, as in the Middle East, it is not easy to make.
For example, on the one hand, Turkey wants to implement joint energy projects with Russia, but at the same time is forced to adapt to US sanctions. On the other hand, the Turks talk about the need for negotiations, but at the same time there is information about military supplies to Ukraine.
Until the conflict reaches globally threatening proportions, Erdogan is trying to maintain neutrality. And at the graduation ceremony of the Naval Academy, he said: “ We are not choosing between the EU and the SCO, as some claim. We do not need to choose.”
Along with the SCO, Turkey also wants to join BRICS. According to Bloomberg, Ankara has already submitted an application.
At the same time, Moscow still has reasons to worry. The new cabinet's course of establishing ties with the West, which is hostile to Russia, does not cause much optimism in the Kremlin, as Putin already spoke about at the last SPIEF.
And on August 19, the Russian side, through the mouth of Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, at a meeting with the Turkish ambassador, called on Ankara, just in case, to refuse to participate in the “destructive policy of the countries of the collective West.”
Turkey recently took a couple more steps toward rapprochement with the West. Fidan took part in an informal meeting of EU countries for the first time in five years, where support for Ukraine was discussed, among other things. And in those same days, the Cumhuriyet newspaper reported on Turkey’s readiness to buy F-35 fighters in exchange for the storage of S-400 air defense systems.
Time will tell how events will develop further. But at least until the Ukrainian Armed Forces leave the Kursk region and Zelensky sits down at the negotiating table at the West's behest, Turkey's diplomatic capabilities are limited. Pro-Western tendencies in Ankara's policy could become an additional burden for Turkey's diplomatic efforts in the Ukrainian direction.
So even if Putin praises the “Istanbul format” and Lavrov today recalled Turkey’s attempts to renew agreements on protecting food supplies by sea, the negotiating platform will ultimately be China, the UAE, or some other power in the Global South.
Western leaders go to Beijing and beg Xi Jinping to influence Putin. And the Emirates, as media sources reported, were preparing for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine before the events in Kursk. It is noteworthy that the last major prisoner exchange of 115 for 115 took place with the mediation of Abu Dhabi.
In such a situation, Turkey's mediating role is not visible.
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Posted by badanov 2024-09-04 00:00||
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Posted by Abu Uluque 2024-09-04 11:42||
2024-09-04 11:42||
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Posted by Grom the Reflective 2024-09-04 12:02||
2024-09-04 12:02||
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14:34 Frank G
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