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2021-05-16 Europe
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A Sad End to France's Lebanese Adventure
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[ENGLISH.AAWSAT] French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian did not let down those who had expected his short "warning" visit to Leb
 ...an Iranian colony situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel. Formerly inhabited by hardy Phoenecian traders, its official language is now Arabic, with the usual unpleasant side effects. The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozeen flavors of Christians. It is the home of Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade. The Lebs have the curious habit of periodically murdering their heads of state or prime ministers...
to end the way it did. It proved, indeed, that he who has nothing can offer nothing.
What happened has proven beyond any doubt that Gay Paree could offer nothing as long as it has two different sets of definitions for: religious and sectarian extremism, occupation, illusory sovereignty, the people’s right to honest living, corruption and conspiring against coexistence and "institutional state".
Continued from Page 4
 A government policy that deludes itself in defending a militia’s illegitimate arsenal, under the excuse that the said militia "enjoys electoral support" can neither achieve breakthroughs nor prove trustworthy. Actually, it is strange to willfully ignore the relationship between this militia’s exclusive possession of heavy weapons — despite being frequently used inside Lebanon — and its election "victories", as well as its undermining of state institutions, politicizing its judiciary, opening borders to smuggling and destroying the livelihood of the Lebanese people through ruinous "liberation" adventures.
During the two visits made by the French president Emmanuel Macron to Beirut, after the massive explosion at its port, he presented an "initiative" that was trusted by naïve observers. He also met with "representatives" of all the Lebanese communities, and dealt with them like a stern and decisive schoolmaster.
For a short while after the first visit, those "representatives" took the French president’s initiative seriously for two reasons:
1- They were unsure how decisive Macron would be.
2- How strong was Washington’s support for the French initiative, if there was one.
 For these two reasons, they agreed to have a new cabinet headed by a Gay Paree-trusted young diplomat from outside the political establishment. However,
it was a brave man who first ate an oyster...
things soon unraveled as the "representatives" succeeded in "deflating" and circumventing the initiative once they discovered its fragility, and Washington’s true position towards it. Thus, Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adib quit, and the Hassan Diab government — dubbed the "Hezbollah cabinet" — carries on in a caretaker capacity.
Of course, backed by its Christian cover the Free Patriotic Movement
Despite its name a Christian party allied with Hizbullah, neither free nor particularly patriotic...
(the Aounist movement), Hezbollah, which is the strongest, the most experienced in obstruction, the most dominant and obliterative party, was and is not ready to offer concessions to La Belle France.
Indeed, why should it concede to a powerless authority in wake of the US presidential elections? Hezbollah bet, and rightly so, that there was no need to offer painful concessions to Gay Paree if the horizon looks bright in Washington; where the new White House boss cannot wait to mend fences with Iran’s leaders, and overlook the behavior of its surrogates in four Arab states.
 Then, in a move that looked as if it was accommodating the French initiative and reassuring the Sunnis, Saad Harari was re-invited to form a new government, almost one year after he resigned to meet the demand the October 2019 popular uprising. And it was noteworthy that the "Shiite duo" was very eager to nominate him.
As a matter of fact, Amal’s support for Hariri was well-known and expected, as it reflects the traditional conciliatory position of its leader Nabil Berri, the parliament speaker. What was new, however, was Hezbollah’s support, keeping in mind that it has different considerations. It basically moves and functions beyond the Lebanese arena; and while it has an interest to look magnanimous to the Sunnis, it would never discard its Aounist Christian cover.
On the other hand, it is well known that Aoun has never ceased his attempts to annul the Taif Accords, undermine the role of the Sunni prime minister, and rebuild Lebanon under a new balance of power effectively under Iran’s military dominance, but with a figurehead Christian Maronite president.
 As we recall, follow Biden’s November victory, the new US president handed over the Iranian file to Robert Malley, and appointed William Burns as head of the CIA. Hence, the Middle East scene — including the situation in Lebanon — began to look different.
Later on, the momentum was accelerated with the resumption of the Vienna talks aimed at returning to the Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
nuclear deal, and Washington’s announcement of its new priorities in Yemen
...an area of the Arabian Peninsula sometimes mistaken for a country. It is populated by more antagonistic tribes and factions than you can keep track of...
, Iraq and Afghanistan; in addition, to easing pressure on Bashir al-Assad’s regime in Syria.
 In parallel, the Aounist demands — tacitly backed by Hezbollah — became more and more insatiable and brazen in undermining Hariri’s efforts to form a non-partisan government as Gay Paree had demanded during Macron’s visits to Beirut.
Again, Hariri gambled on what he regarded as a commitment towards him from the French president. He also felt that his luck was improving as Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai openly called for Lebanon’s neutrality; and thought that as he was fighting President Michel Aoun
...president of Leb, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hizbullah...
— who as ever was hell bent on marginalizing him — he was winning a sizeable chunk of Christian Maronite support represented by the patriarch.
On the other hand, Hariri ignored friendly advice to quit because the de facto rulers in Lebanon - Hezbollah and Aoun - would never allow him to govern, and the major world capitals would never fight for him, whether politically or militarily against Iran and its regional subordinates.
But it was only recently that Hariri began to feel that his gamble was floundering. Worse still, Hariri felt - or was made to feel - that while Gay Paree was unwilling to confront and punish Hezbollah, it was ready to punish him and his Mustaqbal
... the Future Movement, political party led by Saad Hariri...
movement along with Aoun’s FPM for "hindering effort to form the government". Then, in recent days, the French foreign minister’s visit, as well as its reverberations, confirmed that impression.
Given the above, it is time now to admit that under Macron, La Belle France does not have the much hoped for solution that ends Lebanon’s suffering, and save a country whose "romantics" used to call La Belle France "the tender-hearted mother". It is also time to accept that La Belle France’s understanding of the Middle East’s problems, its clear-cut priorities, and how it handles these priorities would encourage no one to expect solutions ... not even initiatives.
Failure becomes obvious when we recall how Gay Paree led, during the last four years, Europeans efforts to befriend the Iranian regime, and an unconditional return to the nuclear agreement; and also obvious when Gay Paree has continuously ignored the root cause of Lebanon’s problem and who is responsible for it.
Then comes the guardsman of French diplomacy to admonish a bunch of weak politicians in a country, which is effectively under occupation, overlooking what this occupation means and leads to.
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Posted by Fred 2021-05-16 00:00||
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