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2020-11-20 Home Front: Politix
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About that blue wave: Republicans won all 27 House races listed as 'toss-ups' — and then some, plus lots more state races
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[WashingtonExaminer] Republicans won all 27 House races the Cook Political Report rated as "toss-ups" in its 2020 election analysis, in addition to picking up seven of the 36 seats the outlet rated as "likely Democrat" or "lean Democrat."
"The House count stands at 221D-209R, and here are my information ratings of the five outstanding races following today’s developments," Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman said on Twitter. "#CA21 - Likely R, #CA25 - Lean R, #IA02 - Lean R (recount), #NJ07 - Likely D, #NY22 - Toss Up."
Before the election, the Cook Political Report listed 229 seats as either "solid Democrat," "likely Democrat," or "lean Democrat" to go along with the 26 toss-ups. As of Thursday, the party’s best hope is for 226 seats, though the Cook Political Report rates 223 as the most likely outcome.
The results represent a major disappointment for Democrats, who grew increasingly confident of a "blue wave" leading up to Election Day that would give them an expanded House majority.
Instead, Republicans look likely to pick up about 15 seats in the House, which would give Democrats a slim majority when the new Congress convenes in January.
Disappointment for Democrats wasn’t limited to races in the House. The party also had high hopes of flipping the Senate away from Republican control. Of the seven Senate races the Cook Political Report rated as "toss-ups," Republicans won five, as well as all four races listed as "lean Republican." The other two "toss-up" races still outstanding are both in Georgia, where runoff elections are being held in January.
Republicans currently hold a 50 to 48 Senate lead in the called races, needing one of the runoff races to maintain their majority.
News was even worse for Democrats further down the ballot where the "blue wave" was supposed to help loosen control of the Republican grip on state legislative chambers ahead of next year’s redistricting process. Yet, according to FiveThirtyEight statistician Nate Silver, Republicans won "almost every election where redistricting was at stake."
When the dust settled, Democrats did not flip a single state legislative chamber, while Republicans surprisingly flipped both the Senate and the House in New Hampshire.
"Republicans are set to control the redistricting of 188 congressional seats — or 43 percent of the entire House of Representatives. By contrast, Democrats will control the redistricting of, at most, 73 seats, or 17 percent," Silver wrote.
How did the Parties do in Relation to State Legislative Seats?
[ReformClub] E-mail from National Conference of State Legislatures to Seth Barrett Tillman:
That number is always the last to pin down [and not yet final] and the one with the most ’noise.’ Our current estimate is that Republicans netted at least 160 seats in the [2020] election. It is rare, but far from unprecedented, for the party winning the White House to lose seats in states. This is the 6th time that it has happened since 1960, and the most losses by the winning president’s party since then. In 1960, Democrats lost around 300 legislative seats even though John Kennedy won the White House. 
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