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2015-08-13 Home Front: Politix
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls ‐ And Losing The Nomination

[FiveThirtyeight] Twelve years ago, in August 2003, Joe Lieberman led in most polls of the Democratic primary. Eight years ago, in August 2007, Rudy Giuliani maintained a clear lead in polls of Republicans, while Hillary Clinton led in polls of the Democratic nomination contest. Four years ago, in August 2011, Mitt Romney began with the lead in polls of Republican voters, but he would be surpassed by the end of the month by Rick Perry, the first of four Republican rivals who would at some point overtake Romney in national polling averages.

Lieberman, Clinton, Giuliani and Perry, as you've probably gathered, are not the faces atop Mount Rushmore. Only Clinton came close to winning the nomination.

But the problem isn't just that the national polls at this stage in the race lack empirical power to predict the nomination; it's also that they describe a fiction. I don't mean to suggest that Donald Trump's support in the polls is "fake." I have no doubt that some people really love him or that he'd be the favorite if you held a national, winner-take-all Republican primary tomorrow. However, the "election" these polls describe is hypothetical in at least five ways:

They contemplate a vote today, but we're currently 174 days from the Iowa caucuses.

They contemplate a national primary, but states vote one at a time or in small groups.

They contemplate a race with 17 candidates, but several candidates will drop out before Iowa and several more will drop out before the other states vote.

They contemplate a winner-take-all vote, but most states are not winner-take-all.

They contemplate a vote among all Republican-leaning registered voters or adults, but in fact only a small fraction of them will turn out for primaries and caucuses.

This is why it's exasperating that the mainstream media has become obsessed with how Trump is performing in these polls.
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Posted by Blossom Unains5562 2015-08-13 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11128 views ]  Top

#1 Last time I checked, when someone hits paydirt or oil, lots of people figure to do the same thing. There's a rush to copy the success of the first guy. The amazing aspect of all of this is the response of the GOP establishment which is proving that it is fact a bunch of liberal oligarchs who don't give a damn other than you servilely showing up at the poll in November to keep them in the gravy and power solely because they want you to fear the 'other guy'. That would be the 'other guy' they continuously surrender more and more power to every day and never hold accountable for high crimes and misdemeanors. Oh, they'll have kabuki theater hearings and shows, but no action.
Posted by Procopius2k 2015-08-13 09:34||   2015-08-13 09:34|| Front Page Top

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