Article

2014-07-13 Iraq

[VOA News] As Sunni jihadists continue to make gains in Iraq, Kurds have taken control of two oil fields in northern Iraq and have pulled out of the Shi'ite government of Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki. Experts say that that the country's future may have already unfolded.

"We are seeing the disintegration of the state of Iraq into three nations; the Shi'ites in the south and east, the Kurds in the north and a Sunni Caliphate under the control of ISIL from western Iraq to Syria," RAND Corporation political scientist and former U.S. military adviser Rick Brennan said.

He warns that the Shi'ite-led government would be acquiescent to Iran and argues that any amount of U.S. involvement now is not likely to make much of a difference.

Continued from Page 4

Edmund Ghareeb, professor of Middle East history at the American University in Washington, D.C., agrees. He believes that the current situation could easily deteriorate into long-term civil war that could entail ethnic cleansing and the devastation of the country's infrastructure.

At the same time, the crisis provides opportunity for at least one segment of Iraq's population.

"Perhaps, more than any time in modern history, the Kurds have an opportunity to establish an independent state of their own," he said. "Not only taking over Kirkuk,
... a thick stew of Arabs, Turkmen, Kurds, and probably Antarcticans, all of them mutually hostile most of the time...
but also discovering oil in their region, which makes it economically viable."

But the formation of an independent Kurdistan by Iraq's five million Kurds won't just change the face of Iraq. Nine million Kurds in Iran and 22 million Kurds in Turkey could be tempted to emulate their Iraqi counterparts, and that dynamic could threaten the nation-state system of the entire region.

Staving off partition

The better scenario for Iraq, says Ghareeb, would be reconciliation and the formation of national unity government to give a political voice to all of Iraq's factions. He said the U.S. is actively pressuring Iraqi leaders come to such an understanding.

"The U.S. realizes that the disintegration of Iraq carries with it dangers and consequences that not only threaten the Iraqi state but are also likely to upset regional stability and the interests of many parties including the U.S.," Ghareeb said.

He also advocates a system of federalism that would distribute a fair share of Iraq's national wealth to localities based on their percentage of the total population.

But Brennan says that keeping Iraq intact would depend on there being a single Iraqi figure who could appeal to Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds — and even if such a personality were to exist, it may be too late to bring factions together.

"Fear and mistrust govern the Iraqi politics," Brennan said. "Sunnis fear not having a stake in the future of Iraq, and the Shi'ites fear being dominated by Sunnis and repressed as they have for hundreds of years," Brennan said.

Posted by Fred 2014-07-13 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11134 views ] Top
File under: Govt of Iraq

#1 Does bear etc...?

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2014-07-13 01:08|| 2014-07-13 01:08|| Front Page Top

#2 Iraq as a country never made sense. Much as Yugoslavia (remember Yugoslavia?) fell apart after Tito died because of the cobbling together of several mutually hostile ethnic and religious groups, Iraq will do the same.

Drawing lines on a map does not create a country. The only thing that held Iraq in one piece was fear of a monster and his minions and their ruthless imposition of power.

The entire ME needs to be redrawn rationally. Unfortunately, the redrawing will be in blood not ink. The horror is just beginning.

Posted by Bill Clinton 2014-07-13 02:11|| 2014-07-13 02:11|| Front Page Top

#3 Bill, the same problem of a "nation" without a demos is taking place in Europe. Demographically the EU makes no more sense than Iraq or Yugo.

We can just hope that they don't turn violent.

Posted by AlanC 2014-07-13 09:28|| 2014-07-13 09:28|| Front Page Top

#4 Alan,

The EU will cease to exist in the next five years.

Take it to the bank. No one is happy with the EU.

Posted by Bill Clinton 2014-07-13 10:34|| 2014-07-13 10:34|| Front Page Top

#5 In this modern era there is less and less need in the first world for super-states to provide security, distribute wealth and ensure trade. The various parts of Europe that wish to secede from their nation-states might as well do so -- Scotland, Catalonia, northern Italy, and so on. What's the difference in the end? Each will set up a government that will be conniving as the ones they're replacing. Life will go on little different than before.

However, the less developed world, such as Iraq, will have a problem with this -- there security IS a major concern, and the United States is again demonstrating that it is not to be trusted long term (ask the Vietnamese). Independent Kurdistan, Shi'a-land, and Sunni-ville will be unstable and easily victimized: the Kurds by the Turks, the Shi'a by Iran, and the Sunnis by the Saudis. Likewise India, if it were to fall apart into its constituent states, would quickly descend into strife. Balochistan as an independent state would become a tribal pesthole within weeks. Vladimir Putin is trying very hard to present the Russian Federation as an unalienable nation-state knowing that anything else would render its parts into serfdom and anarchy.

In this light, the one major anomaly is the United States, in which there is little (as yet) separatist movement. We josh about the rise of the new South or an independent Vermont but we all see each other as Americans. That's part of our exceptionalism. You wonder why Obama and the hard Left attack that: they wouldn't mind at all seeing America fall apart. It would be to their advantage.

Posted by Steve White 2014-07-13 10:58|| 2014-07-13 10:58|| Front Page Top

#6 Mr. Bill, I hope you're correct for a number of philosophical reasons. But, I'm not so sure. I think that what we may witness is the success of soft socialism/fascism.

The power comes not from the governed but from the bribed. Use the police and laws to allow the picking off of individuals one at a time and the mass will go along to get along and as long as the bread and circuses continue the masses will never arise.

The wealthier class will have been bought lock stock & barrel. Any rabble from above, the few un-bought, will be crushed by the weight of regulations and the "war" against the rich (see Koch brothers for template).

Obama is trying all these same things but didn't properly lay the foundation.

Posted by AlanC 2014-07-13 11:06|| 2014-07-13 11:06|| Front Page Top

#7 Iraq was created in the old colonial model. Set up some rivals to help keep the dominant power from every rising against the colonial power. Such a system was never designed with independence in mind. It will not last.

Posted by rjschwarz 2014-07-13 13:20|| 2014-07-13 13:20|| Front Page Top

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