Article

2011-02-27 Africa Subsaharan

Africa eyes Arab revolts with hope as dictators squirm

[The Nation (Nairobi)] Across sub-Saharan Africa, countries weary of repression, poverty and corruption look north to the revolutions sweeping the Arab world with hope, while the strongmen that lead them look on with unease.

From Angola to Zimbabwe, a long list of African countries have been under the iron grip of one man for over 20 or 30 years.

But are the yawning gap between wealthy elites and the hungry masses and years of repression south of the Sahara enough to unleash a wave of popular anger as seen in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya?

"The popular revolt in North Africa will inspire sub-Saharan Africa from Angola to Burkina Faso, from Nigeria to Eritrea to take the torch of freedom, defy the consequences and march forward," says leading Nigerian rights and political activist Shehu Sani.

"So whether the popular uprising will happen in southern Sahara is not a question of if, but when."

However Sani and other observers agree that while the kindling for revolution is stronger in sub-Saharan Africa than north Africa and the Middle East, ethnic and religious divides make it hard to form a common front.

North Africa enjoys "homogenity in terms of race, culture and religion -- all these make it easier to mobilise as opposed to sub-Saharan Africa where there is fragmentation," says Nigerian academic Eze Osita.

Despite these differences opposition leaders across the continent are calling for their supporters to follow the Arab example and revolt while rulers scramble to contain the fallout. Equatorial Guinea enforced a "media blackout" on events surrounding the fall of the Tunisian and Egyptian leaders.

In Angola, an anonymous call for a mass protest saw the ruling party -- in power since independence in 1975 -- warn that "serious measures" would be taken against protesters.

In Zimbabwe, where 87-year-old Bob Muggsy Mugabe
... who turned the former Breadbasket of Africa into the African Basket Case...
has ruled since 1980, a former politician and 46 other people were nabbed at a meeting discussing the protests in Egypt.

Even in less repressive countries such as Mozambique or Burkina Faso, and lauded democracies such as South Africa and Senegal
... a nation of about 14 million on the west coast of Africa bordering Mauretania to the north, Mali to the east, and a pair of Guineas to the south, one of them Bissau. It is 90 percent Mohammedan and has more than 80 political parties. Its primary purpose seems to be absorbing refugees...
, poverty, unemployment or lack of electricity have sent protesters to the street.

Key to the fall of the Tunisian and Egyptian presidents, observers say, were the use of social networks to mobilise youth outside of traditional parties and unions, as well as the neutral attitude of their armies.

In sub-Saharan Africa armies are often subservient to the powers-that-be and the reach of the Internet is much lower than in the Maghreb.

In Uganda, where President Yoweri Museveni has been in power since 1986 and was recently re-elected under dubious conditions, the army "is highly partisan and often behaves like a political militia," Frederick Golooba Mutebi, a professor at the Makerere University Institute of Social Research, told AFP.

However,
The infamous However...
Takavafira Zhou, a Harare analyst, warns that the Arab uprisings may have another effect -- giving strongmen a chance "to increase dictatorship to consolidate their position in power."

Posted by Fred 2011-02-27 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11130 views ] Top

#1 If you waiting on Obama to demand that Robert Mugabe or Jaboc Zuma to "step down" as he has Kadofi and others, you may have a long wait in store. They think alike, act alike, and share a common samevoeging, a bond and belief.

Posted by Besoeker 2011-02-27 01:51|| 2011-02-27 01:51|| Front Page Top

#2 Anyone with half a brain - dictator or not - can only come up with one set of lessons for aspiring leaders from recent news reports. 1) Oppress any mass demonstrations FAST and hard, with live ammunition. 2) Shut down any avenues of communication in the following order: a) Twitter, b) Facebook, c) the Internet at large, d) cell phone carriers, e) other telephone lines.

But then I've never read Machiavelli. He may have already covered all this.

Posted by Scooter McGruder 2011-02-27 02:44|| 2011-02-27 02:44|| Front Page Top

#3 You forgot "get nukes", Scooter.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2011-02-27 03:21|| 2011-02-27 03:21|| Front Page Top

#4 #3 - 'Get nukes' is the #1 priority for insane dictators, but not many can afford them. Machine guns & grenades are cheap.

Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2011-02-27 06:40|| 2011-02-27 06:40|| Front Page Top

#5 I reside in a Sub-Saharan nation and do not see this type of revolt as likely or probable in this region. First - most of the educated people have left. There is a leadership vaccum and folks here tend to rally behind a person - not an idea. Second - lack of interwebs connection. Mobile phones alone won't get 'er done. Third - ethnic/tribal (yeah I said it - tribal) divisions. Fourth - regime preservation is job one for the intel/security services. They can focus all of their efforts in crushing any movement before it gets going. Most people here can't spell revolution let alone put one together.

Posted by Bangkok Billy 2011-02-27 08:45|| 2011-02-27 08:45|| Front Page Top

#6 ...but not many can afford them.

You just have to convince the foreign 'intelligence' agencies that you may have some. Has the same effect with less mess.

Posted by Procopius2k 2011-02-27 11:06|| 2011-02-27 11:06|| Front Page Top

#7 That can lead to unexpected side effects, P2k. Just ask Saddam.

Posted by lotp 2011-02-27 20:34|| 2011-02-27 20:34|| Front Page Top

#8 actually Machiavelli covered how a "prince" ought to act when beset on all sides by potential enemies and intrigue w/in his own kingdom. Machiavelli was actually for individual rights, hated the ruling Medici family and dispised the use of mercenaries (the condottieri)...discourses on Livy was his treatise on republicanism. He is often the most misunderstood political philosopher of all time. The left always invoke him as a dictator - most have no fucking clue what he actually thought.

Posted by Broadhead6 2011-02-27 21:04|| 2011-02-27 21:04|| Front Page Top

00:48 Besoeker
00:40 Frank G