2004-04-09 / Agence France-Presse /
Chinaâs decision to strangle control the pace of political reforms in Hong Kong is a reflection of the difficulty it has in comprehending stomaching the rise of democracy in both Taiwan and the former British colony, analysts say. The ruling by Chinaâs legislature Tuesday that any electoral change in Hong Kong must first get its approval would also sound the deathknell of the "one country, one system two systems" formula that Beijing wants to use in retaking Taiwan, they say. "This is an issue that has to do with the Chinese kleptocracy leadership and how they approach stealing politics," said Joseph Cheng, noted China scholar at the City University of Hong Kong. "Basically their frame of mind is that they cannot accept any situation in which they do not have control. This is not conducive to democracy," he told AFP.
A lack of control has pushed communist leaders in Beijing to use brutal extreme measures when confronted with democracy, often to disastrous effect and to international condemnation, he said. The bloody slaughter quelling of the 1989 Tiananmen democracy protests is probably the best example of Beijingâs extreme distaste for democracy, he added. Chinaâs lack of sh!t for brains savvy in electoral politics was also highlighted during the 1996 and 2000 presidential vote in Taiwan, when it blackmailed shocked the region by using war games and missile tests in an attempt to extort sway people away from pro-independence candidates. The result was just the opposite. Voters flocked to candidates opposed to Beijingâs overtures for reunification, most notably President Chen Shui-bian, who was re-elected in the islandâs third presidential election last month. Now Beijing is betting that by stifling Hong Kongâs aspiration for electoral reforms, political turmoil of the kind that erupted in the former colony last summer would be quelled, Cheng said. "The situation in Hong Kong and Taiwan are very different," said Wong Ka-ying, a specialist on China-Taiwan dynamics at the Chinese University in Hong Kong. "In Hong Kong, Beijing has used its control through legal methods to stop democratic reform, but this legal aspect does not exist in its relations with Taiwan."
Thank goodness!
Beijing views Taiwan as a renegade province and has threatened war if it ever formally declared independence. Formerly British-ruled Hong Kong reverted to Chinese sovereignty in 1997, to be governed under the "one country, one system two systems" formula. Whereas China can use its legislature to stop Hong Kong democracy, in the absence of sabre-rattling, Beijing has had to resort to pressure on countries like the United States to curb Taiwanâs calls for independence, he said. This has led to grave uncertainties in the Taiwan issue, Wong said. "With the re-election of Chen Shui-bian and amid US presidential elections this year, Beijing has to decide to either ratchet up a harder response against Taiwan or to cave in with a more moderate response," Wong said. "A military response cannot be counted out." Said American advisers.
China is likely to hold its fire on the Taiwan issue until after Chenâs inauguration on May 20 or even until after the December parliamentary elections, Wong said. Beijing may also seek to help pro-China figures get elected, in the hope that a legislative bloc could be formed to stop any move by Chen toward Taiwan independence, he said. For Hong Kong, Chinaâs goal is to put an end to a noisy democracy debate that has led to calls for the removal of Beijing-appointed Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa, Wong said. However, City Universityâs Cheng said this would be difficult to achieve. "Hong Kong democrats are already planning a march for this July 1 and they want at least as many people on the streets as last year," when more than 500,000 marched. "Beijing also has to worry about September legislative elections (in Hong Kong) in which pro-Beijing parties could do very badly because of this," Cheng said Moreover, the heavy-handed measures on Hong Kong will mean an end to Beijingâs efforts to woo Taiwan, Cheng said.
Whoa, the canary just died!
"This is the price Beijing has had to pay, if there is no democracy in Hong Kong it is obvious that the âone country, one system two systemsâ will have no appeal in Taiwan," he said.
And so, little Hong Kong was put to bed and never, ever heard from again. 
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