Over the next 11 days, the Senate could lose three of its incumbents in primary fights.
For some perspective on how politically stunning that fact is, consider this: since 1980, only seven senators have lost their seat in a primary election. And one of them, Connecticut's Joe Lieberman, rebounded to win the general election.
Now, Utah Republican Sen. Bob Bennett, Arkansas Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln, and Pennsylvania Republican-turned-Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter are facing serious intra-party fights to hold on to their seats.
Bennett could lose his seat on Saturday, when 3,500 delegates at the Utah Republican Party's state convention will vote for their party's nominee. Bennett is facing two strong challenges, from attorney Mike Lee and businessman Tim Bridgewater. Two outcomes are possible: one candidate secures 60% of the delegate vote and wins the nomination without a primary, or the delegates winnow the field to two candidates who would face off in a June primary election. Bennett's best hope is to win enough support to force a primary, but even then his re-election prospects are tough considering the anti-incumbent surge in his home state.
In Arkansas, Lincoln is facing two Democrats in the May 18 primary, but her main challenger is Lt. Gov Bill Halter. He is challenging her from the left flank, aided by unions and liberal activists who want to oust the more centrist Lincoln. The senator is leading in the polls, but the closing days of the race will be crucial. Outside groups are also playing heavily in this race. The SEIU, for example, just dropped $1 million in television and radio ads attacking Lincoln's record on jobs. She has the backing of key Democrats, including Arkansas's own former President Bill Clinton.
Specter switched parties to boost his re-election prospects in the Keystone State, but 2010 could be the year that he couldn't win as a Republican or a Democrat. National and state Democrats initially scoffed at Rep. Joe Sestak's upstart primary bid, and the senator enjoyed months of double-digit polling advantages. But Sestak has steadily closed the gap. He's spending the final days reminding Democratic voters that Specter, for 45 years, was a Republican.
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