U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded that the videotape of Osama bin Laden played on an Arabic television channel two weeks ago and broadcast around the world, was shot in the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan at least 21 months ago, well before U.S. forces stormed the region in late November 2001, a senior counterterrorist official told ABCNEWS. The Tora Bora region continues to be patrolled by U.S. and Afghan forces and therefore it would not be considered safe for bin Laden to return there. The most recent searches for bin Laden have focused on South Waziristan, a lawless 40-square-mile area of Pakistan across the border and to the south of Tora Bora. A geologist familiar with the Afghan-Pakistan border region also told ABCNEWS the rock formations and climate seen in the video, a high-altitude rocky terrain, with mist and visible clouds, and high evergreens are similar to those found in Tora Bora. The videotape â which surfaced on Sept. 10, the eve of the second anniversary of the terrorist attacks â included eight minutes of footage showing bin Laden and Zawahiri together, walking through the mountains, and appearing to enjoy the scenery. They do not talk in the video but audio of the two men speaking was laid over the video which conveyed the impression that the two men were together, alive and well, celebrating the second anniversary of the attacks and warning of new attacks.
That was the idea the director was going for.
In fact, U.S. technical analysts have concluded that the tape, which was received as one package by the Arab satellite television channel al Jazeera, was actually composed of three separate tapes, made at different times, under different technical conditions, and edited together for propaganda value. The videotape of the two men walking together was probably shot in early November 2001; the audio purportedly of bin Laden was also recorded more than one year ago; whereas the audio of Zawahiri was probably recorded recently. CIA analysts confirmed the Zawahiri tape as authentic, and strongly believe the other was the voice of bin Laden.
On the bin Laden audio portion, there is no reference to any of the events since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks as well as no mention of the 9/11 anniversaries, attacks by al Qaeda and related groups in Bali, Saudi Arabia or Morocco, the U.S. road map to peace between Israel and the Palestinians, or the U.S. led war on Iraq.
Binny must be behind on his reading.
The absence of recent time references on the bin Laden audio is in marked contrast to the Zawahiri audiotape in which the bin Laden aide says: "Here comes the second anniversary of the two raids of New York and Washington." In another statement on the audiotape, Zawahiri appears to take a direct shot at the Iranian government, which has been in discussion with the U.S. about turning over Saif al-Adel, al Qaedaâs No. 3 leader and top military commander, and other senior al Qaeda leaders. The statement was a clear indication of the level of concern at the upper levels of the al Qaeda organization: "As for those who bargain the surrendering of Muslim prisoners to their crusader enemies, we tell them that the crusaders will turn against them even if they sold them their women and children. We tell them that in Islamic history, thereâs punishment for the traitors, the agents and those who sell out their religion, and then Godâs torture in the afterlife. What a bad choice they are making. They have to know that handing over Muslim prisoners to the enemy is a crime that has to be punished."
Interesting, maybe they are worried about Iran.
Analysts believe that this elaborate propaganda ploy demonstrates that al Qaeda is under considerable pressure to maintain the belief that bin Laden is alive and well and still in charge of al Qaeda. However, intelligence analysts also believe that it is in fact a strong indication that Zawahiri and bin Laden are no longer together, that bin Laden himself is either inaccessible, physically incapacitated or dead, and that Zawahiri is now the effective leader of al Qaeda.
Bingo! 
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