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2006-10-16 Home Front: Politix
LimoLiberalWatch: Hollywood’s Democrats Watch and Wait, Cautiously
At last week’s fund-raiser celebrating the 25th anniversary of People for the American Way, one of the core liberal groups in Hollywood, the comedian and master of ceremonies George Lopez Who? left no room for doubt about his expectations for next month’s Congressional elections. “We’re in! We’re in!” Mr. Lopez shouted from the stage, to loud applause from a crowd of 600 at the Beverly Hilton.

In their more sober moments, however, the film industry’s Democrats and Democratic sympathizers remain pointedly reluctant to declare this election cycle a hit, even while the conventional wisdom points toward coming Republican losses in the House and Senate.

“Two years ago we thought we understood the country and we thought there would be change and we got smashed,” said Irina Medavoy, a major fund-raiser for the Democrats who is married to the producer Mike Medavoy, in a telephone interview. “After the last time, there will be no strutting or Bruce Springsteen playing. We have learned.”

With three weeks remaining before the vote, liberal Hollywood has been watching the Congressional midterm elections with the kind of attention usually reserved for presidential races and Oscar night. Potential donors are fielding invitations to as many as three fund-raisers for a single Democratic candidate. “So many people are doing events that you just can’t go to them all,” said Lawrence Bender, a producer of the global-warming documentary “An Inconvenient Truth.” “There tend to be at least two events every night.”

Still, the dominant note, at least among more than a dozen prominent Hollywood Democrats interviewed in the last several days, stops noticeably short of confidence. Several players, like Ms. Medavoy, pointed toward bitter disappointments in the past, when a politically energized film community found itself flummoxed by the perceived maneuvering of Republican strategists and the tendencies of a complex electorate.

“I’ve learned not to be too optimistic,” said Alan Horn, president of Warner Brothers, though he was quick to add, “I believe the tide has turned.”

Along with natural reluctance to declare victory in advance, Hollywood Democrats may feel a certain reserve born of the fact that Congressional politics is something that mostly occurs elsewhere. Few of the House seats in California are likely to change hands, thanks to a redistricting arrangement that rendered most of them “safe” for whichever party has them in hand.

All of this points toward a stay-at-home election night for many on Hollywood’s glamour circuit. The filmmaker Rob Reiner, for instance, said that he planned to watch the returns on television with his friend the philanthropist and film producer Steve Bing, and that he remained distinctly cautious. “You don’t want to spike the ball at the 10-yard line,” Mr. Reiner said.

In the last several weeks many of the industry’s Democratic regulars, including Haim Saban, a Democratic fund-raiser and movie producer, and the former Paramount Pictures chairwoman Sherry Lansing, got a bit closer to the action by throwing support behind Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state’s Republican governor, in his so-far-flourishing re-election bid.

But there is also an abiding sense here that Democrats have in the past defeated themselves by underestimating the skill and motivation of their foes. “There are still a lot of things they could pull with three weeks to go,” Mr. Bender cautioned, notwithstanding polls that favor his team and a recent Time magazine cover that looked for “the end of the Republican revolution.”

On the other side of the aisle, at least one member of Hollywood’s somewhat truncated Republican establishment also saw an up side in the current mood. “I’m a much more popular lunch guest of late,” said Lionel Chetwynd, a conservative-leaning writer and producer, who finds Democratic friends more than usually interested in his views.

Mr. Chetwynd, who predicted that the Republicans would hold one and perhaps both sides of Congress, added that his feelings were not all that different from those of his opponents. “The truth is, we share a cautious optimism,” he said. “I hope there’s enough to go around.”
I hope they do stay at home on election night, lol. I like the fact that they sound so depressed, but I figure they will be feeling much better in a few weeks. How much better is what remains to be seen, methinks.
Posted by .com 2006-10-16 03:02|| || Front Page|| [11134 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 the tone of this does give me hope. Looks like the libs aren't any more confident in the media hype and poll results than we are.
Posted by anon 2006-10-16 05:26||   2006-10-16 05:26|| Front Page Top

#2 In their more sober moments, however, the film industry’s Democrats and Democratic sympathizers remain pointedly reluctant to declare this election cycle a hit, even while the conventional wisdom points toward coming Republican losses in the House and Senate

Let me get this right. According to the polls, Al Gore and John Kerry were presidents of the United States. The Democrats took back Congress a few elections ago. Well, if you listened to them. And if you listened carefully, each time the closer you got to the actual day of election, the numbers always seemed to close, it became tight. It may actually happen this time, but….

In those races where the Democrat opponent is behind by a margin that can’t be fudged, like the Kovanator or Senator Lieberman, the declaration is rather clear. Now why is Lieberman, a clear and unrepentant supporter of the war so far ahead if the issue is the war? Where the pollsters can’t play loose with their numbers for their main employers, both the Democrats, who seem to live and die by polls, and their allies in the MSM, who need to have drama and action to sell and fill air time, the game appears over already. Do you really think the polling businesses would keep the money flowing in from their main suppliers if they had consistently projected 6 months out the actual results of the previous elections?

It remains me of the behavior of the Soviet bureaucracy leading up to its collapse. Everyone was lying up the chain of command on production because that is what Moscow wanted to hear. Its their food chain and employment office. Certainly some things were getting done, but nothing near to what the papers said. Those were the same papers the CIA was reading which is why they were also caught by the quickness of the collapse of the system. They too believed the numbers.

Now this time around, maybe they’re right. However, if you start hearing the words which indicated that once again the gap is closing or its becoming tight, know that we’ve been handed another fast one by the usual suspect.
Posted by Procopius2K 2006-10-16 10:33||   2006-10-16 10:33|| Front Page Top

#3 Completely agree!! They get the buzz out and then right before the election they close the gap so that they can keep some shred of a reputation after the election is over. If we start seeing a general overall shift, in favor of the GOP, right before the election, then you know it isn't chance and is just another fast one.

But you know what is the biggest indicator from this article?

In the last several weeks many of the industry’s Democratic regulars, including Haim Saban, a Democratic fund-raiser and movie producer, and the former Paramount Pictures chairwoman Sherry Lansing, got a bit closer to the action by throwing support behind Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state’s Republican governor, in his so-far-flourishing re-election bid.

ha, ha. I've been hearing them say Arnie was in serious trouble and talk about "his faltering reelection bid" due to the fact that Californians were upset about XY&Z for weeks.

You know what I think. I think that above paragraph is very significant. And I also think that this article is the beginning of the "closing of the gap". We shall see.
Posted by anon 2006-10-16 11:02||   2006-10-16 11:02|| Front Page Top

#4 This is the most important election since 1994, and maybe since 1980. I hope you're right, anon.
Posted by mcsegeek1 2006-10-16 11:07||   2006-10-16 11:07|| Front Page Top

#5 When I read the WaPo say that Bush are Rove are "almost inexplicably upbeat" about the elections, I figure the MSM is setting the stage. If the Republicans retain control of Congress (not that they've used it well), expect some on the left to go back to this story and declare that it's obvious Bush and Rove were upbeat because they knew of plans to fraudulently steal the election / rig the reported vote results.
Posted by lotp 2006-10-16 11:36||   2006-10-16 11:36|| Front Page Top

#6 --tendencies of a complex electorate. --

So, we flyover states aren't rubes, uneducated, ignorant, stupidmoronic simpletons, eh?
Posted by anonymous2u 2006-10-16 11:50||   2006-10-16 11:50|| Front Page Top

#7 No, no, no. They meant the coasts were complex. What's this 'flyover' thingy?
Posted by Bobby 2006-10-16 13:22||   2006-10-16 13:22|| Front Page Top

#8  --tendencies of a complex electorate. --

So, we flyover states aren't rubes, uneducated, ignorant, stupidmoronic simpletons, eh?

Of course we are! That's what makes us complex! ;-)
Posted by trailing wife 2006-10-16 20:12||   2006-10-16 20:12|| Front Page Top

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