Article

2005-09-15 China-Japan-Koreas

the threat posed by China's demographics is known to most RBers ... it's interesting to see the IHT actually print an article, tho, which predicts the possibility of China invading another country as a result of excess young males. Been worried about that for a while now.

In a trend fraught with troubling political and social implications, China will soon find itself with a marriage-age population remarkably out of balance, with about 23 million more young men than women available for them to marry in this decade and the next - what demographers term a "marriage squeeze."

This impending surplus of unattached young men could be a driving force behind increased crime, explosive epidemics of HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases, and even international threats to the security of other nations. Yet the Chinese government has done little to address its demographic destiny.

The coming squeeze is largely the legacy of the government's one-child policy, along with societal modernization. As a result, the nation's fertility rate has fallen dramatically, from around 6 children per woman in the 1960s to around 1.7 currently.

But the society's strong cultural preference for sons has not changed. In recent decades, ready access to ultrasound technology has enabled parents to learn the sex of their unborn children and has led to widespread female-specific abortion.

The demographic consequence is now apparent. Most societies exhibit biologically natural sex ratios at birth of around 105 baby boys born for every 100 baby girls, yielding roughly equal numbers of prospective brides and grooms as generations reach marriageable age. This normal pattern emerges where human interventions don't disturb biology.

But China has departed markedly from this natural pattern since the 1980s. Its sex ratio at birth has hovered between 115 and 120 baby boys for every 100 baby girls in recent years, a level that renders roughly one of every eight men in a generation "surplus." Many Chinese refer to the surplus boys as guang gun (bare branches).

Past societies with large numbers of unattached men have on occasion turned to a more authoritarian political system, perceiving threats of violence. Such societies have also sought to harness their surplus of men by recruiting excess males into military occupations, pursuing expansionist policies aimed at developing unexplored territories or colonizing neighboring ones.

The tensions associated with so many bachelors in China's big cities might tempt its future leaders to mobilize this excess manpower and go pick a fight, or invade another country. China is already co-opting poor unmarried young men into the People's Liberation Army and the paramilitary People's Armed Police.

No less disquieting are the social dynamics accompanying a severe marriage squeeze. In all likelihood, millions of young, poor Chinese bachelors never will marry. Many will migrate from rural areas to urban destinations, patronizing prostitutes there. In doing so, these unattached men could turn China's HIV epidemic - now confined to certain high-risk populations - into a more generalized one by creating "bridging" populations from high- to low-risk individuals. Such male bridging populations have fueled HIV epidemics in Cambodia and sub-Saharan Africa.

China's legal marriage age - 22 years for men, 20 for women - means that more than 23.5 million young men (by our estimate) will be unable to find Chinese wives during the period from 2000 to 2021, owing to the inadequate supply of Chinese women in the marriage market. Neither a spontaneous shift toward a later average age at first marriage nor lax enforcement on the supply side to allow teenage brides would substantially lessen this market imbalance.

Although the 23 million-plus surplus of boys exceeds the entire population of most countries, it represents but a tiny fraction of all 1.3 billion Chinese. However, these millions of "bare branches" will be concentrated in a generation born over a short 20-year period and living mostly in the cities of a largely rural China.

The surplus of boys and shortage of girls "made in China" could soon become not just a concern for China, but for the world.

(Dudley L. Poston is a professor of sociology at Texas A&M University. Peter A. Morrison is a demographer with RAND Corp.)

Posted by lotp 2005-09-15 08:35|| || Front Page|| [11141 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 They are already importing starving North Korean girls. I forecast a growth industry. :-((

Posted by trailing wife 2005-09-15 10:13|| 2005-09-15 10:13|| Front Page Top

#2 Past societies with large numbers of unattached men have on occasion turned to a more authoritarian political system, perceiving threats of violence. Such societies have also sought to harness their surplus of men by recruiting excess males into military occupations, pursuing expansionist policies aimed at developing unexplored territories or colonizing neighboring ones.

See also the Muslim world, in which polygamy results in lots of men without any prospects for marriage.

Posted by Robert Crawford">Robert Crawford 2005-09-15 10:36|| http://www.kloognome.com/]">[http://www.kloognome.com/] 2005-09-15 10:36|| Front Page Top

#3 I dunno trailing wife; if I were a North Korean girl I might want to be exported. Beats eating tree bark.

Posted by Secret Master 2005-09-15 11:16|| 2005-09-15 11:16|| Front Page Top

#4 It could also be behind some of their economic growth.

More men, more competition, more work. Less children!

Women will be valued much more highly due to the shortage, so I think this will self correct.

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2005-09-15 11:54|| 2005-09-15 11:54|| Front Page Top

#5 Ironic: they'll invade San Francisco

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2005-09-15 12:05|| 2005-09-15 12:05|| Front Page Top

#6
Women will be valued much more highly due to the shortage, so I think this will self correct.

You know, this didn't happen in all the previous times that the various Asian areas have had gender imbalances.

Posted by Phil Fraering 2005-09-15 12:25|| 2005-09-15 12:25|| Front Page Top

#7 FrankG: They already have.

Posted by Secret Master 2005-09-15 12:40|| 2005-09-15 12:40|| Front Page Top

#8 Women will be valued much more highly due to the shortage, so I think this will self correct.

Well, unless the chinese not only have mastered human cloning, but also are growing millions of cloned females who are maturing at the same rate as their males ....

that isn't likely to deflect real problems.

Posted by lotp 2005-09-15 13:31|| 2005-09-15 13:31|| Front Page Top

#9 Such societies have also sought to harness their surplus of men by recruiting excess males into military occupations, pursuing expansionist policies aimed at developing unexplored territories or colonizing neighboring ones.

See above note about Zim-Bob's aparent intent.

Posted by Redneck Jim 2005-09-15 14:18|| 2005-09-15 14:18|| Front Page Top

#10 In societies that don't value females, scarcity doesn't necessarily increase their value. Instead you get girl-hoarding by the powerful, girl children kidnapped or sold into prostitution, gangs of "brothers" holding one female prisoner for the group to share, and general societal degeneration and warlordism. And North Korean women entering into whatever arrangement allows them more than tree bark to eat, while their brothers stay home and die of starvation, right, Secret Master?

Posted by trailing wife 2005-09-15 14:30|| 2005-09-15 14:30|| Front Page Top

#11 Instead you get girl-hoarding by the powerful

AKA polygamy and harems.

Posted by Robert Crawford">Robert Crawford 2005-09-15 15:35|| http://www.kloognome.com/]">[http://www.kloognome.com/] 2005-09-15 15:35|| Front Page Top

#12 There is a solution for demographic war. India has the same problem: too many young males. Neither country can offer them either employment or even a chance at marriage.

So, how about a gigantic World War-I style trench war between China and India? Weirdly enough, there may be such a thing as purely demographic-driven war. And if this is the case, this might be the natural solution.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-09-15 18:24|| 2005-09-15 18:24|| Front Page Top

#13 And North Korean women entering into whatever arrangement allows them more than tree bark to eat, while their brothers stay home and die of starvation, right, Secret Master?

Very possibly. Or her parents will sell her for enough money to feed their family for a while. Or she will sell herself for the same reason. Or sheâll do it because there are no economic opportunities in North Korea. Thatâs human nature in the face of starvation and extreme poverty. Hell, thatâs human nature in the face of abundance and affluence. I used to live in San Franciscoâs Tenderloin District, where many young people raised in moneyed portions of America sell themselves for relatively small amounts of heroin. One would assume that they have significantly less motivation than a 14-year-old Korean girl watching her five- year-old younger sister die of malnutrition.

The horrifying possibilities of human behavior are nearly endless. Or, at least, thatâs what living in San Francisco taught me.

Of course, the smart thing for the Chinese to do would be to follow the example of horny Spaniards and Americans and invade the Philippines. You can bet they are giving it some thought.

Posted by Secret Master 2005-09-15 18:42|| 2005-09-15 18:42|| Front Page Top

#14 It's a bunch of bull. China has gone through this kind of thing for thousands of years. During times of famine, poor families tended to either sell their daughters into concubinage or prostitution. When they were unable to do so, they would simply withhold food from selected daughters. Periods of strife came not from sexual imbalances, but from famine and pestilence combined with a weak state, during which times desperate men faced with certain death undertook high stakes gambles with their lives and the lives of their followers. China is not currently in that situation - economic growth is lifting living standards in leaps and bounds and the state remains strong and able to enforce its edicts.

Sexual imbalances are a staple of Chinese history. Until the 20th century, when Western legal codes took hold, Chinese males could marry as many women as they could afford. Poor men sought the company of professionals.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-09-15 19:03|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-09-15 19:03|| Front Page Top

#15 AKA polygamy and harems.

Thanks, Robert. I blanked on the terms, but why let mere ignorance stop me in mid-post? ;-)

Posted by trailing wife 2005-09-15 22:59|| 2005-09-15 22:59|| Front Page Top

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